FTAI Infrastructure - Q4 2023

Executive Summary

• Record quarter: consolidated Adjusted EBITDA $33.29M and core segment Adjusted EBITDA $42.46M; revenue $81.44M (+14.1% YoY) and diluted EPS of -$0.47, with Transtar and Jefferson delivering record segment EBITDA.
• Jefferson throughput averaged 185,000 bpd and EBITDA hit $14.33M; management highlighted advanced negotiations across four projects totaling ~$75M annual EBITDA potential, plus ~$8M annual cost savings targeted by mid-2024.
• Repauno Phase 2 expected to be funded entirely with tax‑exempt debt (~$200M capex) and generate ~$40M annual EBITDA; caverns permitting targeted for 2H 2024, enhancing asset value and storage economics.
• Long Ridge signed a data center LOI with nonrefundable deposits hitting Q1 P&L; management sees structural demand tailwinds in PJM and plans to refinance corporate debt in 2024 to lower fixed charges.
• We could not retrieve S&P Global Wall Street consensus estimates; no beat/miss determination available at this time (SPGI request limit exceeded). Focus catalysts: Jefferson contract conversions, Repauno Phase 2 signing, Long Ridge data center agreements, and corporate refinancing.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Record core segment Adjusted EBITDA ($42.46M) and consolidated Adjusted EBITDA ($33.29M); Transtar posted $23.63M with margins exceeding 50% and Jefferson $14.33M amid strong throughput.
• Jefferson business pipeline accelerating: advanced negotiations across clean fuels and crude projects (~$75M annual EBITDA once commenced); new lease at Jefferson South generating gains as acreage is leased above book value.
• Clear path to >$200M run-rate Adjusted EBITDA in 2024 driven by segment momentum and new initiatives; management explicitly raised the target vs prior communications.

What Went Wrong

• Continued net losses and negative net income margins due to high interest expense and equity losses in unconsolidated entities; Q4 interest expense was $26.17M and equity in losses $(17.53)M.
• Long Ridge EBITDA declined to $5.10M (from $7.97M in Q3) on a 20-day planned maintenance outage and weak third-party gas sales amid low gas prices; production held back until ~$2/MMBtu threshold.
• Repauno remained loss-making on Adjusted EBITDA (-$0.61M) pending Phase 2 signing; negotiations slower than hoped though scale of opportunity expanding.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day, and welcome to the Q4 2023 FTAI Infrastructure Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are on listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Alan Andreini, Investor Relations. You may begin.

Alan Andreini (Investor Relations)

Thank you, Michelle. I would like to welcome you all to the FTAI Infrastructure fourth quarter and full, full year 2023 earnings call. Joining me here today are Ken Nicholson, the CEO of FTAI Infrastructure, and Scott Christopher, the company's CFO. We have posted an investor presentation in our press release on our website, which we encourage you to download if you have not already done so. Also, please note that this call is open to the public in listen-only mode and is being webcast. In addition, we will be discussing some non-GAAP financial measures during the call today, including Adjusted EBITDA. The reconciliations of those measures to the most directly, directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in the earnings supplement. Before I turn the call over to Ken, I would like to point out that certain statements made today will be forward-looking statements, including regarding future earnings.

These statements, by their nature, are uncertain and may differ materially from actual results. We encourage you to review the disclaimers in our press release and investor presentation regarding non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking statements, and to review the risk factors contained in our quarterly report filed with the SEC. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Ken.

Ken Nicholson (CEO)

Thank you, Alan, and good morning, everyone. This morning, we'll be discussing our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2023, and in doing so, I'll be referring to the earnings supplement, which we recently posted to our website. Before getting into the financials, I'm pleased to report that our board has authorized a $0.03 per share quarterly dividend to be paid on April fifth, to the holders of record on March twenty-seventh. Now, on to the results. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA prior to corporate expenses came in at $42.4 million, up 32% quarter-over-quarter and representing a new record for the company. For the year, adjusted EBITDA was $140.9 million, also a record and up 60% from fiscal 2022.

Our strong performance for the quarter was driven by record results at our two largest companies, Transtar and Jefferson, and the realization of several of the initiatives that we set out to accomplish throughout the 2023 year. But we're equally excited about the prospects for our two other businesses, Repauno and Long Ridge, which continue to make significant progress on new opportunities that contribute materially to EBITDA-- that can contribute materially to EBITDA in the year ahead. With the strong results at Transtar and Jefferson, as well as the momentum at Repauno and Long Ridge, we are now forecasting to exceed our previous target of $200 million of run rate EBITDA during 2024.

In terms of the highlights at each segment, Transtar reported $23.6 million of adjusted EBITDA, its highest quarterly result since we acquired the business in 2021. Operationally, Transtar had an excellent quarter, with growth in both carload volumes and pricing, while operating costs remained steady. EBITDA margins exceeded 50% in Q4, a first-time accomplishment for the company. Recently implemented pricing increases in several new business activities, including our new railcar repair facility, have already begun to contribute in 2024, so we expect the momentum to continue at Transtar in the year to come. At Jefferson, EBITDA was $14.3 million for the quarter, also a new record. Volumes continue to grow at Jefferson, and we're advancing more new business opportunities than ever.

We'll talk in more detail shortly, but today we are in advanced negotiations with a number of new and current customers for incremental business, representing a total of $75 million of annual EBITDA once commenced. At Repauno, the adjusted EBITDA loss continued to narrow, and we made significant progress on our phase two expansion project that will transform our business and long-term EBITDA generation. And finally, at Long Ridge, results reflect the previously scheduled maintenance outage during the quarter, as well as reduced third-party gas sales, given the lower price environment for natural gas. Had it not been for the outage, our results would have been in line with our third quarter.

I am as optimistic as ever about our business at Long Ridge, and I believe the macro outlook for modern, efficient power plants is as strong as it's been since we first commissioned the plants a couple of years ago. Briefly on the balance sheet. In the aggregate, we had $1.34 billion of debt at December 31. $560 million of debt was at the corporate level, while the rest of our debt was at our business units. Transtar is completely debt-free, while approximately $750 million of debt was at our Jefferson segment and $50 million was at Repauno. At both of these entities, debt is non-recourse to the parent, carries low coupons and long duration, and is not callable in the event of a sale of the business.

With continued growth in our earnings and favorable capital markets, we're expecting to be in a position to refinance our corporate balance sheet during the 2024 year, which will allow us to reduce fixed charges and increase distributable cash flow. I'll talk through the detailed results at each of our segments and then plan to turn it over to questions. Starting with Transtar on slide 7 of the supplement. Transtar posted revenue of $44 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $23.6 million in Q4, up from revenue of $41.9 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $17.4 million in Q3. Both carload volumes and average rate per carload grew in the quarter, while operating expenses were steady.

Fuel expenses were more than offset by fuel surcharge revenue during the quarter, as we recovered some of our higher fuel costs incurred in Q3, with fuel surcharge revenue received in Q4. We're making great progress on multiple initiatives at Transtar to drive incremental revenue and diversify our customer base. The table on the right side of slide 7 of the supplement shows the incremental EBITDA we expect from this year for each initiative.... In total, we expect these programs to represent approximately $4 million-$6 million of quarterly Adjusted EBITDA and $20 million on an annualized basis. Now on to Jefferson. Jefferson generated $19.3 million of revenue and $14.3 million of Adjusted EBITDA in Q4, compared to $16.6 million of revenue and $7.8 million of EBITDA in Q3.

Volumes handled at the terminal grew significantly to an average of 185,000 barrels per day, driven primarily by increased refined products, while crude oil volumes remained steady. Operating expenses were also lower for the quarter as our recent cost savings initiatives started to kick in. In the aggregate, we're expecting $8 million of annual cost savings to be fully implemented by the middle of this year. Also, during the quarter, we executed a new lease at our Jefferson South terminal. On our income statement, we recorded a gain in connection with this new lease. To elaborate a bit on this, we do not expect this type of event to be a one-time item. We have a low basis in land at Jefferson South, given the attractive purchase price we negotiated in purchasing the site.

When we execute new leases substantially above the book value of the land at Jefferson South, we record a financial gain. At current market lease rates, we expect to continue to record gains like this as we lease up the remaining acreage at the site. We have approximately 200 acres available for lease, so while these gains may not repeat every quarter, we certainly expect to record similar or larger gains in the future. But more importantly, the new business environment at Jefferson remains robust, and we're advancing more opportunities for both conventional energy products as well as clean hydrogen-based fuels. Last year, we secured a new 15-year contract for the transloading and export of ammonia, commencing in 2025.

We currently have three additional projects in advanced negotiations, which, together with last year's ammonia contract, represent approximately $75 million of annual EBITDA once operational and have the potential to be transformational for Jefferson. If we're successful in converting these opportunities to business wins, we will far exceed our prior targets of $80 million of annual EBITDA. Now on to Repauno. We continue to narrow our operating loss, and our phase one multiyear contract to transload natural gas liquids is continuing smoothly. As a reminder, that contract with an investment-grade counterparty has minimum volume commitments and does not expose Repauno to commodity prices. Our negotiations continue in connection with the much larger phase two transloading system, although we are now in discussions with additional producer customers, which should lead to higher committed volumes.

Phase two can ultimately quadruple the capacity of natural gas liquids handled at the terminal. So while negotiations have been slower than hoped, the scale of the ultimate commercial opportunity is larger. I'm confident we'll sign up our first customer for phase two in the next 30-60 days and start construction immediately thereafter. In the aggregate, we expect phase two to cost approximately $200 million to build, funded entirely with tax-exempt debt, and to generate approximately $40 million of annual EBITDA once complete. Closing out with Long Ridge. Long Ridge generated $5.1 million in EBITDA in Q4 versus $8 million in Q3. Power plant operations were impacted by a 20-day planned maintenance outage, while gas production continued to be managed down during the quarter in the currently lower gas price environment.

At gas prices of under $1.50 per MMBtu, our profit on third-party sales is less meaningful, so we limit production and opt to keep excess gas in the ground. This month, we expect to close a new financing for our recently acquired gas resources in West Virginia. The new facility is long term with an extremely attractive rate, so that positions us well to start gas production when prices recover. More importantly, we have been actively advancing a handful of significant opportunities with on-site power customers at Long Ridge, which could have a significant positive impact on EBITDA. Late last year, we entered into a letter of intent with a data center operator for the lease of a portion of our property and utilization of a substantial portion of our power capacity.

The LOI is the first step to what we expect to be a binding long-term agreement and includes non-refundable deposits, a portion of which will hit the P&L in this first quarter. On a macro level, data center demand in the PJM region alone is expected to grow from 3 GW of power needs currently to nearly 17 GW over the next 6 years. New renewable resources will not be sufficient to meet this demand, and owners of modern, efficient gas plants like Long Ridge have the potential to benefit greatly in the coming years. With that in mind, we've also been advancing negotiations with an existing tenant that will require up to 200 MW of our power capacity. We expect to be in a position to execute this LOI in the month of March.

To wrap up, we're pleased with our direction as we enter the year ahead and excited about the things to come. Now, let me turn the call back over to Alan.

Alan Andreini (Investor Relations)

Thank you, Ken. Michelle, you may now open the call to Q&A.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our first question comes from Giuliano Bologna with Compass Point. Your line is open. Giuliano, if your telephone's muted, please unmute.

Giuliano Bologna (Senior Analyst)

Sound good. Thank you. Hopefully, you can hear me now. Congratulations on a great quarter. Well, the first thing I'd like to ask is, can you talk a little bit about the railcar repair facility and why you're excited about the prospects with the new railcar or the expanded railcar facility?

Ken Nicholson (CEO)

Absolutely. Yeah. Good morning, Giuliano. Thank you. Yep, just opened, and we're thrilled to have it. It opened and complete about a $20 million project to build. Actually, that facility was entirely funded by the state. So, you know, we're thrilled to have the state's participation in that project. It is the biggest and most modern...

repair facility, really in the entire Western Pennsylvania, Eastern Ohio region, and that's a huge region for industrial activity. We connect with all the Class I railroads, and so we have access to, you know, hundreds of thousands of rail cars, you know, in the region. We already signed a new piece of business with a major oil company for the repair of tank cars. I think we'll have the facility at full capacity, you know, at some point this year. At full capacity, the thing generates at least $10 million of annual revenue. And generally, these types of facilities, you know, typically have EBITDA margins of about 30%-40%. So you get a sense for just the EBITDA impact from this one facility.

I think most importantly, it is the first of many to come. Now that we've got this one behind us, you know, across Transtar's portfolio, we're setting up to open many more, and so these things are highly, highly accretive. I can't say in every case, we'll get, you know, full participation from, you know, the states or regions in funding, but nonetheless, they're relatively low cost of building to be highly accretive. So we're setting out on a big plan to build many more of these and really get into the business.

Giuliano Bologna (Senior Analyst)

That's helpful. And then next, can you give us your thoughts on the sale of U.S. Steel and the impact it could have on Transtar?

Ken Nicholson (CEO)

Yeah. The punchline is, I think it's, you know, in the event that transaction closes, and we think it—our view is it will, the, I think it's only, only good for us. You know, Nippon Steel is the fourth largest steel manufacturer in the world. It's an investment-grade counterparty. As part of our contract today with U.S. Steel, our contract must be assumed by the new buyer. And so, look, U.S. Steel is a, is a, is certainly a very strong credit. Nippon Steel is, you know, even a better credit. So, you know, we, we like that dynamic. I would also say, you know, Nippon is... Their core business is operating blast furnaces.

I mean, obviously, the part of the U.S. Steel business that they find most attractive are the blast furnaces in Pittsburgh and Gary, and I think they want to do a lot with those two facilities. So, I'm excited about it. I don't think the transaction is going to close anytime necessarily soon. I mean, what we're hearing is it'll be later this year. Again, I think it's only good things to come out of that transaction.

Giuliano Bologna (Senior Analyst)

That's helpful. And then, on the Jefferson side, can you expand on the $75 million plus of new initiatives that you outlined?

Ken Nicholson (CEO)

Yeah, definitely. The $75 million includes four pieces of business, new pieces of business. Two of them are at Jefferson South, and two are at our main terminal. At Jefferson South, one has already been executed. That's the ammonia contract I described. And the second is also with a separate counterparty, an even larger hydrogen-based fuels contract, very, very long-term and very significant in scale. You know, I really see Jefferson South becoming a clean fuels, a hydrogen-based fuels, you know, hub. Just with the first contract alone, Jefferson South will become the largest exporting facility for carbon-free, you know, ammonia in the United States. And this second contract that we are in advanced stages in negotiating will obviously take it to another level. The two other projects are at the main terminal.

Both involve crude oil. One involves waxy crudes, and that contract is advancing well. We're at the documentation stage, and that's with a new customer. And then the final contract, which is also for crude oil at the main terminal, is with an existing customer. It's basically an expansion of existing crude oil business we do with one of our customers, and I think that one is also advancing well. Look, I think all four of these contracts and opportunities, one is already executed. I think the remaining three, you know, we should be in a position to execute in the next three to six months. I mean, it would...

As you know, at Jefferson, you know, when you sign up new, very long-term, you know, deals, these things take some time to negotiate and ultimately ink, but once you have them signed up, you know, they live very long. So I think it's, you know, probably the next 3-6 months, you know, when we have all these things in place, and as I said, in my comments, if we're successful in closing all these out, it'll be absolutely transformational for Jefferson and the value proposition there.

Giuliano Bologna (Senior Analyst)

Very helpful. And then on the Repauno side, are you finally close on phase two of Repauno? And can you expand a little bit more about the potential size and increase at Repauno?

Ken Nicholson (CEO)

Yeah. Admittedly, we were hoping to have that contract executed. We are very, very close, and I do think it is simply a matter of time. It is when, it is not if. But as I described, and I think you actually picked up on, as we have been negotiating, you know, others, particularly the producer side, have been, you know, showing interest. And so I think we have the potential to expand the revenue base, you know, at no additional cost. The original, you know, the contract with just one counterparty, you know, would not have used, you know, the full capacity of the system.

And so now, having more counterparties involved allows us to operate the cryogenic tank at, you know, a capacity closer to full capacity. So, you know, where we had previously been in, you know, EBITDA estimates that were slightly less than, you know, the $40 million, you know, run rate, I think we're now much closer to that $40 million run rate.

Giuliano Bologna (Senior Analyst)

... That sounds good. And then I'd be curious where you are with the cavern permits at Repauno. And what do you think that does to the value of Repauno?

Ken Nicholson (CEO)

I think it's significant to the value. The process is continuing. As you know, you may appreciate, you know, obtaining permits for this kind of unique work is a process, but we're deeply engaged with the state of New Jersey in the permitting process. We currently anticipate receiving the permits in the second half of this year. You know, caverns are a different animal, in a very good way from above ground storage. They cost a third to a half of the cost to build above ground. They live effectively forever, and the maintenance of a cavern is significantly lower than the maintenance of an aboveground tank.

They also mean that you maintain the aboveground land for use for other things, like additional rail and what have you, so it's incredibly efficient. Repauno is a unique asset in that we sit on top of this incredible granite formation. Obviously, we operate one cavern today, and that thing has been operating flawlessly, handling butane and propane. So we're very, very excited about the new caverns. I think just the act of obtaining permits is a significant driver in value creation, and that value only grows as you start construction and actually build out the caverns. Look, Repauno is today one of the bigger gateways in the Northeast here for the export of natural gas liquids.

With the caverns, we will be, you know, a very, very close second to our neighbors at Energy Transfer just down the river. And so I think it's huge for the value creation at Repauno, even before we have the things up and running.

Giuliano Bologna (Senior Analyst)

That's very helpful. And then where do you want to see nat gas prices before you start increasing production?

Ken Nicholson (CEO)

Yes, then, prices have been low at Long Ridge, for, you know, particularly in the Utica and Marcellus, you know, formations for quite some time. And so the past few quarters, you know, we have not seen a lot of excess gas production. I can't say I have a great view as to whether, you know, gas prices are going to stay where they are or go up. I think the general consensus is they'll, you know, they'll creep up from here, over the next, you know, few quarters. So, you know, hopefully, we'll be in a position to produce some additional gas and sell into the market. Generally, we like to see gas prices at $2 an MMBtu before we make significant commitments to gas production.

So, you know, fingers crossed, we get to that level, and we can start producing more gas. Obviously, West Virginia is, you know, gonna be in a good position to start gas production here as soon as we close out the financing, which I expect to do this month. We don't quite need the $2 level in West Virginia. The cost of production is a little bit lower, maybe closer to $1.75. So we're ready to go there, and, you know, prices today are hovering around $1.50 in the PJM region where we are. So we're close, we're close, but I think we, we need-- we'd like to see gas prices climb a little bit more before we commit to large-scale production.

Giuliano Bologna (Senior Analyst)

Sounds good. Then, one final one. As your infrastructure assets mature, and as more permits are received, I'm curious, with all the emphasis from PE firms on the infrastructure assets, are you seeing any reverse inquiry on any of your assets?

Ken Nicholson (CEO)

Yes. As you noted, you know, I think there... You know, look, market conditions are generally favorable. There's a lot of money in the private equity system and investor base and a lot of dedicated infrastructure funds that are out there. There have been not a lot of available targets, and so there's a lot of hunting for rail assets, terminal assets, and long, long-lived, you know, infrastructure assets. And so, yes, I would say the reverse inquiry has been a little bit more active than it had been.

I think it's a function of what's going on in the market, but it's probably more a function of our assets really maturing and, getting to the point where, you know, we're getting to a level of scale, where independent financing of the assets is more readily achievable and what have you. So obviously, you know, we're responsive to that reverse inquiry as, you know, as would be appropriate. But yes, I think the M&A market is a little bit more robust. We're seeing, you know, fewer opportunities to buy things in certain sectors, but it also means, you know, there's a lot of demand from folks and not a lot of supply, which, with our assets, you know, that's not a bad position to be in.

Giuliano Bologna (Senior Analyst)

That is, very helpful. I appreciate it. And, that was it for me, so I'll jump back in the queue. Thank you.

Ken Nicholson (CEO)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Alan Andreini for any closing remarks.

Alan Andreini (Investor Relations)

Thanks, Michelle, and thank you all for participating in today's conference call. We look forward to updating you after Q1.

Operator (participant)

Thank you for your participation. This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.