FL
FOOT LOCKER, INC. (FL)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 delivered above revised expectations: sales $2.243B (-5.8% YoY; +2.6% comps), gross margin expanded 300 bps to 29.6%, GAAP EPS $0.57 and non-GAAP EPS $0.86, with strength in Foot Locker and Kids Foot Locker (+3.6% combined comps) and Champs positive comps (+1.8%) .
- FY25 guidance: sales -1.0% to +0.5%, comps +1.0% to +2.5%, gross margin 29.3%-29.7%, SG&A 24.3%-24.5%, EBIT margin 2.6%-3.1%, non-GAAP EPS $1.35-$1.65; capex $270M (adj. $300M) prioritizing customer-facing investments .
- Management highlighted continued cost savings ($35M in Q4; $100M in FY24) and strong cash-on-cash returns from reimagined stores (~50%) and refreshes (35%-45%), while moderating non-customer-facing tech spend amid a cautious consumer start to FY25 .
- Stock narrative drivers: positive comps/gross margin recapture, clear FY25 guardrails, brand diversification beyond Nike, but tempered near-term demand and promotional backdrop, with earnings weighted to 2H per management .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Comps strength and margin recapture: comps +2.6% led by global Foot Locker and Kids Foot Locker (+3.6%); gross margin +300 bps YoY to 29.6% despite elevated promotions .
- Multi-brand momentum and basketball leadership: double-digit growth in adidas, New Balance, ON, HOKA, ASICS, Saucony, Crocs, UGG, Timberland; major NBA All-Star activation drove engagement (“20,000 visitors…3 billion media impressions”) .
- Cost optimization and returns on capital: $35M Q4/ $100M FY24 savings; reimagined stores ~$4–$5M Y1 sales, ~20% EBITDA, ~50% cash-on-cash; refreshes 35%-45% returns with sales/profit lifts .
What Went Wrong
- Topline down YoY and promotional intensity: sales -5.8% YoY (lapping 53rd week); elevated promotions across DTC/wholesale pressured topline despite margin recovery .
- Apparel softness and WSS pressure: apparel comps down mid-teens; WSS comps -3.3% with inflationary and regional headwinds (e.g., Los Angeles fires) .
- Cautious consumer and tariff overhang: softer start to February; sensitivity to tax refund timing and between-key-event lulls; management noted tariff uncertainty and modest direct China exposure .
Financial Results
Core P&L and KPIs vs Prior Quarters
Notes: “—” indicates the rate was not disclosed in that period; Q4 2025 refers to period ended Feb 1, 2025 reported March 5, 2025.
Banner and Region Sales – Q4
Additional KPIs – Q4
Guidance Changes
Note: Company provides forward guidance on a non-GAAP basis and does not reconcile to GAAP due to forecasting difficulty .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We delivered fourth quarter results above our previously revised expectations… positive comparable sales and meaningful gross margin improvement… our Lace Up Plan is working.” — Mary Dillon, CEO .
- “Gross margin… expanded 300 basis points… to 29.6%… ahead of our revised expectations… merchandise margins up… occupancy flat.” — Mike Baughn, CFO .
- “We achieved $100 million in savings… targeting incremental $60–$70 million in 2025.” — Mary Dillon .
- “Our partnership [with Nike] is strong and fully reset… sequential top line and gross margin recovery… bullish on innovation and storytelling later in the year.” — Mary Dillon / Frank Bracken .
- “Average reimagined location… ~$4–$5M in sales and 20% EBITDA margins in year 1… ~50% cash-on-cash returns.” — Mike Baughn .
Q&A Highlights
- Consumer tone: January strongest; February softer with sensitivity to tax refund timing and between-event lulls; comps still supported by activations (NBA All-Star, launches like Jordan Retro 12) .
- Nike/promotions: Elevated DTC promotions caused halo effects; FL expects sequential improvement as franchise health is restored and innovation pipeline ramps (Shox, Max Air refresh) .
- Tariffs exposure: Direct China exposure low single-digit of sales; ~half of private label imports; minor fixtures exposure across China/Mexico/Canada .
- SG&A leverage: Underlying modest leverage excluding incentive comp normalization; structural work continues to bring SG&A down from ~24% .
- Capex reallocation: Prioritizing customer-facing projects (refresh/reimagined) with high returns; elongating back-of-house IT investments; ~300+ refreshes in 2025 then shift to reimagined scaling .
- WSS and Europe: WSS cautious consumer; double-down on value/workwear/football; Europe comps +1.9% in a choppy, promotional market; heavy refresh focus in Western Europe/UK in 2025 .
Estimates Context
- Wall Street consensus EPS and revenue estimates via S&P Global were unavailable at time of analysis due to data-access limits; therefore, explicit beat/miss vs consensus cannot be shown. Management indicated non-GAAP EPS of $0.86 vs their guidance of $0.70–$0.80 for Q4, representing an internal beat versus revised outlook .
- Given FY25 guidance (EPS $1.35–$1.65; comps +1.0% to +2.5%; GM 29.3%–29.7%), street models likely need to reflect back-half weighted earnings and moderated SG&A leverage, with gross margin recapture tempered by consumer and marketplace uncertainty .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Q4 print validated margin recovery and comps resilience; internal EPS beat versus revised guidance underscores execution on cost and merchandising despite promotions .
- The FY25 framework points to modest topline growth and margin recapture; earnings weighted to 2H as store investments and innovation cadence build—position sizing should account for near-term volatility .
- Capital deployment is shifting toward high-return store projects; reimagined/refresh returns and brand-standard penetration are tangible drivers of productivity and cash generation .
- Brand diversification mitigates Nike dependence; watch Nike franchise health restoration and storytelling in H2 alongside continued double-digit momentum from non-Nike partners .
- Monitor WSS and international (Europe promotional, APAC inflation) as key swing factors; expect disciplined openings and localized value propositions to stabilize banners .
- Liquidity improved (cash $401M; debt $446M) and inventories well-positioned; pulled-forward spring receipts support Q1 flows but consumer caution may pressure early-quarter trends .
- Near-term trading: catalysts include incremental margin recapture, mobile/FLX penetration gains, and brand launch calendars; risks center on promotional intensity, tariff headlines, and timing of tax refunds .