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Fold Holdings, Inc. (FLD)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Revenue of $7.10 million grew 44% year over year; GAAP net loss widened to ($48.9) million due to large non-cash fair value marks tied to Bitcoin-denominated items; adjusted EBITDA loss was ($4.21) million .
  • Against S&P Global consensus, revenue missed ($8.4M est. vs $7.09M actual) and Primary EPS missed (-$0.10 est. vs -$0.4225 actual); coverage remains thin (one estimate), limiting signal value.
  • Management reaffirmed prior full-year revenue target of $61.6 million and set FY25 marketing spend guidance at ~$3 million (≈10x vs 2024) to support new product launches .
  • Key catalysts: nationwide rollout of the Bitcoin Gift Card with gross revenue recognition, launch of Bitcoin rewards credit card with 75k waitlist, and opening custody/trading to all users—each expanding TAM and margin profile .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Strong top-line and KPI momentum: +44% YoY revenue to $7.1M, total transaction volume ~$250M (+67% YoY), active accounts >600k with +17k adds, verified accounts 76k with +5k adds .
  • Product pipeline and distribution: Credit card with 75k+ waitlist; gift card partnership provides access to ~150k points of sale; plan to open exchange to non-cardholders .
  • Strategic treasury scale: Bitcoin holdings increased 50% Q/Q to 1,490 BTC ($150M value as of 5/13), aligning shareholders/customers and enabling future products .

Quoted management: “Our credit card…has the potential to be a game changer…As of today, we have over 75,000 customers on the wait list” . “Through our partnership with Totus, we now have access to over a 150,000 points of sale” .

What Went Wrong

  • Miss vs consensus (limited coverage): revenue $7.09M vs $8.40M est.; Primary EPS -$0.4225 vs -$0.10 est.; note thin analyst coverage (n=1) reduces reliability.
  • Operating expenses up sharply to $16.6M (vs $5.8M prior year) from public company costs and higher compensation/marketing/insurance; adjusted EBITDA loss expanded to ($4.21)M .
  • GAAP loss driven by non-cash marks on Bitcoin assets/liabilities and convertible/SAFE instruments—expect continued GAAP volatility with BTC exposure .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD)$4,931,211 $7,087,837
GAAP Net Loss ($USD)($945,046) ($48,879,200)
GAAP EPS (Basic & Diluted) ($)($0.16) ($1.92)
Operating Loss ($USD)($854,728) ($9,500,370)
Adjusted EBITDA (Loss) ($USD)($853,364) ($4,208,992)
KPIQ1 2025 ValueYoY Growth
Total Transaction Volume ($USD)~$250,000,000 +67% YoY
Active Accounts>600,000 n/a
New Accounts Added+17,000 (quarter) n/a
Verified Accounts~76,000 n/a
New Verified Accounts+5,000 (quarter) n/a
Avg. Spend per Transacting User / Month ($USD)~$3,300; +47% YoY +47% YoY

Estimates vs Actuals

MetricQ1 2025 ActualS&P Global Consensus*Beat/Miss
Revenue ($USD)$7,087,837 $8,400,000*Miss
Primary EPS ($)-0.4225*-0.10*Miss
EPS # of Estimatesn/a1*n/a
Revenue # of Estimatesn/a1*n/a

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment breakdown: Not disclosed; commentary indicates banking/payments main driver with growing custody/trading contribution, and gift card volumes to be recognized gross in custody/trading line .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD)FY 2025$61.6M $61.6M Maintained
Marketing Expense ($USD)FY 2025n/a~$3M; ~10x vs 2024 New / Raised spend
Gift Card Revenue RecognitionFY 2025n/aGross basis; included in custody & trading revenue Clarified
Seasonality NoteFY 2025n/aQ4 historically highest revenue/volume quarter Context

Management noted they are not providing explicit updated FY25 forecasts until rollout progress is clearer .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Product expansion (Credit Card)Limited public disclosure prior to listing; company began trading 2/19/25 Waitlist >75k; launch targeted in 2025; higher interchange and cross-sell potential Strongly positive, key growth lever
Distribution (Bitcoin Gift Card)n/aLaunch announced; access to ~150k points of sale via Totus; online + physical rollout Expanding footprint; TAM lift
Exchange access (Custody/Trading)n/aOpening to all users; wire deposits; broader MTL footprint; NY is priority Broader funnel; scalability focus
Regulatory/licensingn/aBitLicense friction in NY; optimism on access; recent positive industry developments Improving environment
Treasury strategyn/a1,490 BTC; ~50% Q/Q increase; explore capital market tools to add BTC Aggressive accumulation
Marketing strategyn/a~10x increase vs 2024; focus on credit card/gift card/exchange; co-marketing with retailers Investment ramp to drive growth

Management Commentary

  • Strategic positioning: “Fold now stands as the first publicly traded company focused entirely on delivering Bitcoin native financial products to everyday consumers” .
  • Demand signals: “As of today, we have over 75,000 customers on the wait list” for the credit card .
  • Distribution scale: “Through our partnership with Totus, we now have access to over a 150,000 points of sale” .
  • Treasury alignment: “Bold’s treasury now stands at nearly 1,500 Bitcoin…our strategy is to continue accumulating opportunistically with every move focused on increasing sats per share” .
  • Cost & profitability lens: “Adjusted EBITDA…excludes various noncash expenses…we believe are not indicative of our core operating results” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Credit card rollout: Focus on quality/scale; remains on track for 2025; 75k+ waitlist; expect higher interchange and financing revenues; strong cross-sell opportunities .
  • Geographic expansion: NY BitLicense is the largest near-term unlock; Arkansas smaller but targeted; recent addition of Texas access; exchange grew ~500% YoY .
  • Marketing allocation: Spending targeted to credit card, gift card, and exchange; co-marketing with national retailers and social/financial content/influencers .
  • Gift card mechanics/economics: Denominations $25–$500; redemption via code in Fold app; retailer + Fold share margin on sale price, making Bitcoin “ubiquitous” at checkout .

Estimates Context

  • Consensus snapshot (thin coverage): Q1 2025 revenue $8.4M est. vs $7.09M actual (miss); Primary EPS -$0.10 est. vs -$0.4225 actual (miss); both based on a single estimate*.
  • Note on comparability: GAAP EPS was -$1.92; S&P’s “Primary EPS” may reflect normalized methodologies; the divergence underscores limited comparability and low coverage depth *.
  • Implications: Post-miss and with clearer gross revenue treatment for gift cards, models may need to adjust revenue mix, seasonality (Q4 peak), and non-GAAP focus (Adjusted EBITDA) while factoring BTC-linked GAAP volatility .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Growth runway: New products (gift card, credit card) expand TAM and should shift mix toward higher-margin revenue streams; watch rollout pace and retailer adoption .
  • KPI strength: Broad-based engagement and spend per user (+47% YoY) support operating leverage as marketing ramps .
  • Earnings quality: Expect ongoing GAAP volatility from BTC fair value marks and financing instruments; focus on operating metrics and adjusted EBITDA trajectory .
  • Guidance: Revenue target maintained at $61.6M; ~$3M marketing budget signals commitment to acquisition; monitor realization vs seasonally strongest Q4 .
  • Distribution advantage: Totus partnership and gross recognition of gift card volumes could materially scale reported revenue; track conversion from online to in-store .
  • Regulatory unlocks: NY access would meaningfully expand exchange addressable market; licensing progress is a catalyst .
  • Positioning: Significant BTC treasury (~1,490 BTC) aligns interests and enables product innovation but adds GAAP P&L volatility; treasury strategy is central to equity narrative .