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FLEX LTD. (FLEX)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Flex delivered a very strong Q3 FY2025: revenue $6.56B (+2% YoY), record adjusted operating margin 6.1% and record non-GAAP EPS $0.77; GAAP EPS was $0.67 .
- Results materially exceeded company’s prior Q3 guidance (revenue $6.0–$6.4B; adj. EPS $0.60–$0.66; adj. OI $335–$365M) with $6.56B revenue, $0.77 adj. EPS and $399M adj. operating income, driven by mix and efficiency and outsized strength in data center, health, and consumer-related end markets .
- Data center remained the standout: ~45% YoY growth in Q3 with similarly strong growth expected again in Q4; management reiterated multi-year ~20% CAGR view given cyclical digestion patterns but sustained secular drivers (dense compute, power needs) .
- FY2025 outlook raised: revenue to $25.4–$25.8B (from $24.9–$25.5B) and adj. EPS to $2.57–$2.65 (from $2.39–$2.51). Q4 guide: revenue $6.0–$6.4B, adj. EPS $0.65–$0.73; adj. tax ~19% and interest/other ~$45M .
- S&P Global consensus estimates were not accessible at the time of analysis due to access limits; comparisons vs Street are therefore unavailable. We instead benchmark against company guidance and prior periods (will update upon request).
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Record profitability: adjusted operating margin hit 6.1% (first “6-handle”), and non-GAAP EPS reached a record $0.77; management credited portfolio mix and factory efficiency across all business units .
- Data center outperformance: ~45% YoY growth with strength in hyperscale cloud integration and power portfolio; acquisitions (JetCool, Crown) broadened capabilities (direct-to-chip liquid cooling; medium-voltage power) .
- Cash generation and capital returns: Q3 free cash flow $306M; YTD FCF $757M; Q3 share repurchases $200M; net inventory days normalized ~56 .
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What Went Wrong
- Auto softness: Automotive remains challenged by weak macro dynamics, muting Reliability segment growth even as power and medical offset .
- Mixed end-market backdrop: Core industrial softer than previously expected; medical equipment still stabilizing though devices remain strong .
- Tax and seasonality headwinds to Q4 EPS: Q4 EPS guided down ~10% sequentially (still up ~20% YoY) due primarily to higher tax rate despite margin holding around 6% .
Financial Results
Flex headline results by quarter (oldest → newest)
Q3 FY2025 vs prior quarter, prior year, and guidance
Notes: Management cited record Q3 gross profit $610M (9.3% GM) , while the GAAP schedule shows gross profit of $594M (implies ~9.1% on GAAP basis) . The difference likely reflects non-GAAP adjustments; reconciliations are provided in the press release schedules .
Segment breakdown (Q3 FY2025)
Selected KPIs
Guidance Changes
Company-raised FY2025 outlook and Q4 FY2025 guide
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We had a very strong Q3, delivering another record quarterly operating margin and EPS. Revenue came in at $6.6 billion, with operating margins at 6.1% and EPS of $0.77… this is the first quarter we achieved operating margin above 6%... We expect a six handle again in Q4.” — Revathi Advaithi, CEO .
- “This consistent margin improvement… is coming from improving mix and efficiency in every business unit… It’s not just one or two driving it.” — Kevin Krumm, CFO .
- “Our data center business grew a robust 45% year-over-year… We continue to see sustained demand in our hyperscale cloud integration programs and our power portfolio resulting from AI-driven cloud expansion.” — Revathi Advaithi .
- “For Flex, tariffs are a pass-through cost… There can sometimes be a lag in recovery timing, but it hasn’t been a big issue.” — Revathi Advaithi .
Q&A Highlights
- Data center trajectory: Management expects 40%+ YoY growth to continue into Q4, with long-term ~20% CAGR to account for digestion cycles; recent AI headlines (e.g., DeepSeek) do not change infrastructure build-out plans heard from customers/suppliers .
- Margin sustainability: Achieving 6% ahead of prior FY2027 aspiration; drivers are portfolio mix upgrades and factory efficiencies; expect fluctuations but targeting ~6% again in Q4; FY2026 specifics deferred to next guide .
- Manufacturing footrpint and tariffs: Flex can shift production geographically; space is plentiful in the US, with labor the bigger constraint; automation and AI expected to reduce landed costs over time .
- Customer diversification in data center: Exposure spans multiple hyperscalers and colos; Crown expands US medium-voltage/power pod capabilities; JetCool enhances liquid cooling; growth primarily via increased wallet share with existing customers .
- Q4 seasonality and EPS: Q4 revenue guide reflects typical ~6% sequential decline; EPS down ~10% sequentially mainly due to tax rate shift, still up ~20% YoY; margins expected similar to Q3 (~6.1%) .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus (revenue, EPS) was not accessible at the time of analysis due to request limits; therefore, we could not include Street comparisons. We benchmark Q3 results against company guidance instead and will update with SPGI consensus upon request .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Mix-led structural margin story: Crossing 6% adjusted operating margin earlier than planned reflects durable mix and efficiency gains across BUs; management sees runway from additional products, services, and automation .
- Data center remains the growth flywheel: ~45% YoY in Q3 with similar growth expected in Q4; strategic M&A (JetCool, Crown) adds cooling and medium-voltage power capabilities to deepen “grid-to-chip” differentiation .
- FY25 raised: Revenue and adjusted EPS guidance increased; Q4 guide implies stable margins despite normal seasonality and higher tax rate; execution remains strong .
- Auto is the main near-term watch item: Macro softness persists, but content-led and compute/powertrain transitions support longer-term trajectory; Reliability margins still advanced to a record level in Q3 .
- Cash returns supported by robust FCF: $306M FCF in Q3; inventory normalized; continued buybacks provide capital return lever while investing in growth .
- The narrative that moves the stock: Durable “above-cycle” profitability driven by AI data center seculars and power + cooling content expansion; any signs of sustained 6%+ margins and continued data center momentum are likely to be catalysts, while auto macro and broader demand/seasonality remain balancing factors .