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FULL HOUSE RESORTS INC (FLL)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered a revenue beat and strong margin expansion from operations: revenue was $77.95M vs $75.69M in Q3 2024, with operating income up 40% to $3.44M; Adjusted EBITDA rose 26% to $14.81M, driven by record results at American Place and a $2.1M contribution from Chamonix/Bronco Billy’s .
  • Versus Wall Street, revenue beat consensus ($77.95M actual vs $76.40M consensus*) and EPS was roughly in line to slightly below (-$0.21 actual vs -$0.204* consensus); company-reported Adjusted EBITDA ($14.81M) exceeded consensus EBITDA ($14.12M*) .
  • Management lowered the permanent American Place budget to $302M (from $325M) and reiterated confidence in ramp targets (temporary at ~$40M EBITDA next year, run-rate ~$50M by permanent opening), plus flexibility on financing (bond market, REIT, land lease) .
  • Catalyst path: continued ramp at American Place, tangible cost reductions and marketing traction at Chamonix, financing update for the permanent American Place, and potential progress on Indiana relocation—each can recalibrate sentiment and estimates .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • American Place set new property records: revenue +14% YoY to $32.0M and record profitability; database surpassed 115,000 members. “American Place continues to deliver outstanding growth” (CEO) .
  • Chamonix turnaround traction: West segment Adjusted Segment EBITDA rose 168% YoY to $3.21M, with Chamonix/Bronco Billy’s contributing $2.1M (vs -$0.7M LY); table game revenues up sharply per call commentary .
  • Consolidated profitability improved: operating income +40% YoY to $3.44M; Adjusted EBITDA +26% YoY to $14.81M; net loss narrowed to -$7.68M from -$8.47M .

What Went Wrong

  • Grand Lodge disruption and portfolio changes weighed: West segment revenue fell 7.2% YoY to $17.99M on Hyatt Lake Tahoe renovations and the sale of Stockman’s (completed April 1, 2025) .
  • Contracted sports wagering softer YoY: revenue $1.63M and Adjusted Segment EBITDA $1.54M vs $1.79M and $2.04M LY; operator changes impacted cadence despite Indiana prepayment later in July .
  • Interest expense remained elevated: $11.13M in Q3, continuing to constrain GAAP EPS despite operational gains; management is evaluating refinancing and multiple financing avenues .

Financial Results

Consolidated Results vs Prior Periods and Estimates

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$75.69 $75.06 $73.95 $77.95
Diluted EPS ($)-$0.24 -$0.27 -$0.29 -$0.21
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$2.45 $0.74 -$0.07 $3.44
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$11.74 $11.49 $11.13 $14.81

Estimates comparison (Q3 2025):

MetricConsensus*ActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)$76.40*$77.95 +$1.55
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$14.12*$14.81 +$0.69
EPS ($)-$0.204*-$0.21 -$0.006

Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.
Note: Company-reported Adjusted EBITDA (actual) may differ from consensus EBITDA definitions.

Margins (computed from reported figures)

Margin MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
EBIT Margin % (Operating Income / Revenue)3.2% 1.0% -0.1% 4.4%
Net Income Margin % (Net Loss / Revenue)-11.2% -13.0% -14.0% -9.9%

Segment Breakdown (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

Segment MetricQ3 2024Q3 2025
Midwest & South Revenues ($USD Millions)$54.51 $58.33
West Revenues ($USD Millions)$19.39 $17.99
Contracted Sports Wagering Revenues ($USD Millions)$1.79 $1.63
Midwest & South Adjusted Segment EBITDA ($USD Millions)$10.25 $11.55
West Adjusted Segment EBITDA ($USD Millions)$1.20 $3.21
Contracted Sports Wagering Adjusted Segment EBITDA ($USD Millions)$2.04 $1.54

KPIs and Property-Level Highlights

KPIQ3 2025
American Place Revenue ($USD Millions)$32.00
American Place Adjusted Property EBITDA ($USD Millions)$9.00 (Q3 call)
American Place Database Members115,000+
Chamonix/Bronco Billy’s Revenue ($USD Millions)$13.99
Chamonix/Bronco Billy’s Adjusted Property EBITDA ($USD Millions)$2.10
Grand Lodge Revenue ($USD Millions)$4.00
Cash and Equivalents ($USD Millions)$30.9
Senior Secured Notes Outstanding ($USD Millions)$450.0
Revolver Availability ($USD Millions)$10.0

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Permanent American Place Project Budget ($USD Millions)Project lifecycle$325 $302 Lowered
Temporary American Place Run-Rate EBITDA (management expectation)Ramp through opening~$40M in 2026; ~$50M run-rate by permanent opening (management view) Reiterated (no numeric formal guidance) Maintained
Formal Revenue/EPS/EBITDA GuidanceFY/Q4Not provided Not provided Maintained (none)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q3)Trend
Permanent American Place financingPlan to refinance notes and fund permanent; bond market improving; timeline flexible Evaluating bonds, REITs, land leases; preference for bonds; flexibility and no near-term equity Increasing optionality
American Place rampRecord net revenue & operating profit; poker room addition; awareness building Record revenue $32.0M; database >115k; sustained growth Strong, ongoing ramp
Chamonix cost & revenue initiativesIdentified >$4M annual savings; revamp marketing; seasonal tailwinds expected in Q2/Q3 FTE -13%; table game share gains; positive Adj Property EBITDA; aiming for profitability in peak seasons Improving operations
Sports wagering skinsCO/IN partner exits; revenue cadence affected; CO exit by June; IN by Dec; Indiana skin reversed, fully prepaid through Dec 2031 ($1.5M); segment revenue/EBITDA down YoY Mixed but stabilized in IN
Indiana relocationLegislative study signed; exploring Fort Wayne/Indianapolis; community and employee support frameworks Management reiterates relocation economics and favorable tax impact; pursuing legislative path Progressing structurally
Kenosha competitive noiseNot a factor previouslyDeemed unlikely/long-dated; minimal impact on American Place De-risked narrative
Tahoe renovations impactN/AHyatt Lake Tahoe renovations temporarily affect Grand Lodge performance Near-term headwind

Management Commentary

  • “American Place continues to deliver outstanding growth, setting new records for revenue and profitability in the third quarter… [database] surpassed 115,000 members.” — CEO Daniel R. Lee .
  • “Adjusted Property EBITDA [Chamonix/Bronco Billy’s] improved by $2.8 million… rising to $2.1 million from -$0.7 million.” — CEO Daniel R. Lee .
  • “Behind the scenes, we… reduced the project’s total budget, down from $325 million to $302 million.” — CFO Lewis Fanger on permanent American Place .
  • “On the balance sheet side, we had about $40 million of liquidity at the end of the quarter… extremely little CapEx until we start construction.” — CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Flow-through leverage: incremental revenue flow-through can be “70–80%” after taxes and reinvestment, supporting profitability as revenues grow .
  • Financing flexibility: company is actively evaluating bonds, REITs, and land leases; preference remains for bonds; no intent to issue equity at current levels .
  • Chamonix seasonality and targets: aim to avoid losses in Q4/Q1; comfortably profitable in 2026; strong third-quarter seasonality expected to be 40–50% of annual earnings .
  • American Place run-rate: management targets ~$40M EBITDA in 2026 and ~$50M run-rate approaching permanent opening; poker room added in August .
  • Indiana relocation: study supports moving licenses to high-population areas; FLL proposes relocation with community tax-sharing and employee severance to reduce opposition .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 actual vs consensus: revenue beat ($77.95M vs $76.40M*), EPS slightly below (-$0.21 vs -$0.204*), and company-reported Adjusted EBITDA above consensus ($14.81M vs $14.12M*) .
  • The beat/miss dynamic likely drives upward revisions to revenue and Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 and FY, with EPS tied to interest expense and seasonality. Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • American Place is the primary growth engine; continued ramp and database expansion underpin upside to revenue and Adjusted EBITDA into 2026–2027 .
  • Chamonix operational fixes are taking hold (FTE reductions, targeted marketing, table game share gains), shifting from cash drain to cash generator; watch Q4/Q1 seasonality and spring/summer acceleration .
  • Financing update is a key near-term catalyst; multiple avenues available (bonds, REIT/land lease) with management disciplined on equity—monitor timing and terms .
  • Portfolio mix: expect West segment recovery as Tahoe renovations complete and Chamonix ramps; Midwest & South momentum to continue on American Place strength .
  • Sports wagering: Indiana prepayment provides visibility; overall segment remains a smaller contributor—do not anchor the thesis here .
  • Watch legislative progress on Indiana relocation; a move to higher-population markets could materially enhance asset value and state tax contribution .
  • Near-term trading lens: revenue/EBITDA beats and operational updates should support sentiment; financing clarity is the swing factor for multiple expansion.