Flutter Entertainment - H1 2023 (Q&A)

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, and Welcome to The Flutter Entertainment PLC 2023 Interim Results Call. There'll be a chance to ask questions later on, but first, I'd like to hand you over to Mr Peter Jackson, CEO of Flutter. Please go ahead, sir.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Paul Tymms and I for this call this morning. As noted in the presentation, which hopefully you've all had a chance to watch, Paul Tymms is standing in for Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson, who's out of the office this week due to a family medical emergency. Before we go to questions, I'd like to touch on a few items. The first half marks a pivotal moment for Flutter. Our U.S. business is now structurally profitable, with FanDuel delivering an H1 adjusted EBITDA of $100 million, including a Q2 EBITDA of $153 million. This has occurred six months earlier than we had forecasted when providing this guidance back in August 2021. As outlined then, our U.S. customer base is now a sufficient scale to more than offset the cost of future customer acquisition.

This effect will continue to compound and drive significant profit growth, which in turn will transform the earnings profile and financial flexibility of the group. FanDuel attracted over 2 million new players in the half, which drove revenue growth of 63%. We maintained our position as the number one online sportsbook operator with a 47% share of the market and grew our iGaming share to 23%. Outside of the U.S., pro forma revenue grew 8%, and EBITDA was up 4%. In U.K. and Ireland, we grew AMPs and revenue by 10% and 13% respectively, as our recreationally focused brands took significant share due to product enhancements and new gaming content. In Australia, while we have successfully retained our COVID-enlarged customer base, our expectations for market growth in H2 have moderated somewhat due to reduced spend levels.

International is also a growth inflection point, underpinned by the strong performance of our consolidating invest markets, which grew revenues by 19% and represent 77% of the divisional revenue. The second half has started well, and we remain focused on delivering against our strategy and capitalizing on the significant opportunity ahead, both in the second half of the year and beyond. With that, I'd like to hand it over to George for questions. I'll ask if you can limit it to two questions per person, please.

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on the phone keypad. Please also ensure your mute function is not activated in order to prevent you signal with your equipment. Our first que- is coming from Paul Ruddy of Davy. Please go ahead.

Paul Ruddy (Gaming and Leisure Analyst)

Hey, good morning, Peter and Paul. Just two quick questions, if I may. The first one is just on the U.S.. H1 EBITDA came in at around GBP 50 million or GBP 79 million ex PokerStars and FOX. Just thinking through, that looks a long way ahead of H1 consensus and just thinking through the midpoint of the guidance range, which looks to be in line with consensus expectations. Could you kind of give us some color on that kind of H2 outturn, what level of additional investment you might make? You know, is there anything we should think about in H2 which colors that, that number? The second one is just on Australia. You've obviously reset the guidance down in Australia.

Just wondering, could you give some context on what the underlying market is declining at in Australia at the moment, and what your expectations are for that for the rest of the year, i.e., or, and maybe some context on when you might think the Australian market returns to growth? Thanks a lot.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Thanks, Paul. Look, in terms of the first question, I think it's important that we go back and remember the context a couple of years ago, when we first, you know, told people that we'd see the U.S. business make money this year. The reason we saw that was because we knew that this year would be the tipping point where we'd have more customers in the back book, or sufficient customers in the back book, to generate contribution to cover our fixed costs and the customers that we were going to be acquiring. Now, we've actually reached that milestone earlier, and we've reached that milestone earlier because the business is bigger than we anticipated it would be a couple of years ago.

Look, I think the important thing for me is in terms of the sort of the shape of the business, which, you know, I think is where you're getting to with this, you know, H1, H2. I, you know, I'm not really focused on that. What I'm focused on is the sort of transition there and the pivotal moment this year as we become profitable and thinking about the shape and the trajectory and momentum into next year. You think about, you know, the very material shift in, in, in, in earnings for us from making a loss last year to the profit we make this year. Of course, they'll get compounded next year, right? Because we're going to have another huge slew of customers, you know, that we've acquired this year that will make a positive contribution. You know, we knew this year would be profitable.

We've already reached that milestone, so the business is now structurally profitable. We've proved the model works. You know, we will continue to you know, to acquire and invest in acquiring as many customers as we possibly can do, whilst ever they meet our CAC LTV hurdles. You know, I mean, I think, you know, we were very pleased with acquisition in the first half, we'll, we'll try and acquire as much business as we can do, in the second half. I think with, with regards to, you know, Australia, I think the, you know, the context there is, you know, we, we saw a, you know, a very significant benefit going into, into COVID for the sports background.

You know, we've got a customer base that's 2.5x the size of anyone else's, and, you know, we're a, a real COVID winner in the market. There's been some reversion, though, you know, as we saw in the U.K., you know, we're now seeing in Australia, and that, that is impacting the business. You know, look, when we, when we look to next year, I think, you know, we, we hope the business will get back to, to growth. I think we have to acknowledge that going into the second half of this year, we're going to see some wins. Paul, you'll, you'll give us some thoughts.

Paul Tymms (Group Director of Investor Relations and FPA)

Yeah. Our, our view of the market is we can see the racing market down about 8%-10% in Q2. Sports is ahead, we can see the market growing about 5%, and we're taking market share there. I think of our view for Sportsbet for the rest of the year is revenue broadly flat and returning to growth next year.

Operator (participant)

Okay, that's really helpful. Thank you. Thank you very much, sir. We'll now move to Ed Young, calling from MS. Please go ahead.

Ed Young (Equity Research Analyst)

Good morning. The first one on U.S. investment. I understand how you've laid out the ambition to invest more into growth. That's clear. Just in terms of that investment itself, I mean, sales marketing is coming in very nicely with the gearing in the business. Could you perhaps give some color on how that is being spent? As you mentioned, obviously, you're staying to CAP to LTV ratios. Are you spending on higher caps because your LTVs are higher? Is that why spending is higher? Are you finding more or better channels to allocate it? Just be interested about if you could talk a little bit about the how as well as the what you're doing.

The second one was on capital allocation. There isn't a customary 1-2x that you've spoken about previously, and there's a lot of, pink countries on slide 36. Are you sort of broadly expressing that you might run leverage at a higher level than you've previously talked about getting to? Perhaps on that, could you reflect on the operational capacity of the business to absorb, say, a big acquisition as well as your balance sheet capability to do it? Thank you.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Morning, Ed. thank you for the, for the questions. Look, I mean, on, on, on the U.S., we're, we're continuing to see good returns, you know, across the board. you know, I think, you know, we've, we've, we've talked in the past about how, how delighted we were with the performance of this year's Super Bowl, you know, and actually, the, the nature by which we acquired the customers leading up to, you know, to the Gronk's kick campaign, meant that the quality customers are much better. But just in, in general, in the first half, we've been, we've been really pleased with performance across all channels. And, and, you know, look, our lifetime values, you know, have, you know, proved to be better than we had originally anticipated.

We think, you know, the quality of our products, the levels of retention, the structural margin changes we're making, particularly through to pricing accuracy and things like that, have all contributed to give us higher LTVs. We've got real confidence in that. Look, you know, we're still sticking with our CAC LTV framework of 12-18 months. As we mentioned, you know, in the Q1s, we're coming well within that in terms of the newly launched states, for example. Look, we're very pleased with it. You know, with regard to your second question, you know, you're right, there are a lot of pink countries, and I think it's, you know, on that map.

It is an indication that, you know, there are a lot of opportunities for us to expand. I think we, you know, we have to be thoughtful about what is the right level of leverage for us to carry as, as, as a business. There are factors in that which we need to, you know, think about in terms of the, the earnings profile for this business now, and also whether, you know, U.S. listing would change investors views on, on any of those things. I think from a capacity perspective, you know, we've been very pleased with our ability to integrate the assets that we've acquired to date.

Look, whilst it's something we have to be thoughtful of, I think, you know, our ability to, you know, make bolt-on acquisitions and, you know, in, into our, into the business, particularly across the international division, where we've got a real platform capability now, is something that we're, we're very comfortable with. Paul, I don't know whether you want to sort of add any comments to this.

Operator (participant)

Mr. Young, does that answer your question, sir?

Ed Young (Equity Research Analyst)

That's it. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much, sir. Our next question is coming from Clark Lampen, calling from BTIG. Please go ahead, your line is open.

Clark Lampen (Managing Director and Digital Gaming Analyst)

Hi, thanks. Good morning, guys. two questions, please. Peter, you've laid out some detail, I guess, in, in previous presentation decks and reports around performance and payback periods for newer FanDuel player cohorts. I didn't see that this morning. You may have just sort of confirmed what I'm about to ask, with the prior question, but would it be possible to update us on performance and whether you've seen any meaningful change in what was otherwise a pretty healthy trend? The second question that I have is on U.S. product. You saw about 1/3 of your NBA players engaging with shorter duration micros during the playoffs. Were those betting options driving incremental spend? Was that maybe more of a reallocation?

As we're approaching NFL season, is there any, you know, reason to think differently, I guess, about the opportunity with engagement or spend with football? Thank you.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Yeah. Morning, Clark, and thank you for getting up so early. Let, let me just take the, the second question quickly, and then Paul will talk to us about the, the performance piece. Clearly, there will have been some reallocation, right? When customers are, you know, picking up that, some of that newer product we made available with the, you know, those, those products available in the NBA, we will have seen some substitution. I think the point we were making there was less around whether it's incremental, it's just our ability to continue to innovate and drop new products into the market....

Yeah, the fact that we capture 50% more revenue than our competitors from the handle, means that we've just got a bigger war chest to invest in, in product marketing, and generosity more generally. You know, look, we're, we're excited to see what we can do, with the product. We're not a, you know, we're a, we're a fast-moving target for people in terms of trying to sort of, replicate, what we have. You know, I know the team has got some very exciting plans for the upcoming season, and in fact, the years ahead. Paul, do you wanna talk about the performance?

Paul Tymms (Group Director of Investor Relations and FPA)

Yes. The, the customer cohort analysis, which you're referring to, that's something we've used over the last six to twelve months to demonstrate our confidence and profitability, which we've now achieved. You can see how we've laid that out on slide 11. I think it's been, I think it's been pretty successful in demonstrating our, our confidence and profitability. It, it, it is very difficult then to take that forward and, and use that as a basis for modeling. As you can see, if you listened to the presentation this morning, we've transitioned from using customer cohorts to now state cohorts, and I think that is a, a much better basis for modeling the business going forward, particularly if we think about the complexity of what does our business look like in 2024, 2025.

In terms of any changes to underlying trends in that customer cohorts, I mean, there's a lot of moving parts in there, but no, we're still seeing the very strong returns that we've seen for the last 12 months.

Clark Lampen (Managing Director and Digital Gaming Analyst)

Thanks, Paul.

Operator (participant)

Thanks, sir. We'll now move to Mr. David Brohan, calling from Goodbody. Please go ahead.

David Brohan (Gaming and Leisure Analyst)

Morning, guys. Just two questions from me. Firstly, I wonder if you'd give an update on India, how the recent proposed tax changes factor into your long-term thinking in that market? Then just secondly, around, I know the Fox Bet losses are gonna ease off in the second half of the year. I wonder could you give a timeline on when the PokerStars losses will reduce, be it this year or next year? Thank you.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Morning, David. Look, in terms of India, you know, I think we've now believe got clarity around the new basis for calculation of GST, which is effectively going to be on deposits, and we anticipate it'll be introduced on the 1st of October. But we've been very pleased with, you know, with the performance of our business since we acquired it. You know, Junglee is one of the fastest growing rummy players since we acquired it. I think the, you know, GGR is up to 4x since we made the acquisition.

From our perspective, the tax basis change does impact the business, but what it effectively does, is means that, you know, you know, there's a, there's a slug of sort of essentially, sort of, you know, tax, you know, costs in, in the EBITDA, in the, in the revenue line. Which means that the sort of EBITDA profile is probably gonna look more similar to, you know, to the U.S. business in, in the long run, than would otherwise have been the case. You know, look, we're still very excited about it, and I think it probably means a bit like the U.S., you'll need to have, you know, real scale to, to win, in, in the, in the Indian market. Paul, do you want to talk about the, the, the Fox Bet, please?

Paul Tymms (Group Director of Investor Relations and FPA)

Yeah. We've talked previously about our 2022 losses for FOX Bet and PokerStars, $91 million. We'd expect to retain probably just under half of those losses going forward, on a current run rate for the PokerStars business. In terms of what happens to those losses going forward, I mean, we're setting up the business for the long term. We do expect the losses to reduce over time. It is a good brand for when the gaming TAM expands, clearly, dependent on the poker regulatory framework in the U.S., but, but we think there's definitely a very strong brand there that resonates, that we can utilize going forward.

David Brohan (Gaming and Leisure Analyst)

Perfect. Thanks, guys.

Operator (participant)

Thank you much, sir. We now move to Ryan Sigdahl, calling from Craig-Hallum Capital Group. Please go ahead, your line is open.

Ryan Sigdahl (Senior Research Analyst)

Good! Thanks for taking our questions. just want to start with, a FOX Bet quick question. I guess you have licenses in several states, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado. Curious what your plans are to do with those, whether you're going to sell those or launch a different brand there? Secondly, on FanDuel, the app consistently ranks at the top for virtually every category of testing you can imagine, which is kudos to you guys, in the product. The one bet365 has a reputation internationally, now in the US as well, for having the fastest in-game bet settlements. How important is that in your mind when you think about kind of innovation and, and improvements going forward? Thanks.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Morning, Ryan. Look, kudos to you for getting up so early. Appreciate it. Look, I'll take the questions. Look, with regards to Fox Bet, you know, look, we have a separate entity in the U.S., which, you know, operates what is effectively now, you know, the PokerStars business in the U.S. That, you know, has its own market access partners, and we don't intend to make any changes as a consequence of the, you know, the deal that we've done with FOX to close down Fox Bet. You know, the PokerStars business will continue to, you know, exist in those entities in the U.S.

With regards to FanDuel, look, you know, we've continued to invest and, and develop our, our product in a way that we think, you know, really resonates and works for, you know, for the American audience. You know, ultimately, we have great products in, you know, all of our businesses, in all of our different markets around the world. We give them the, the freedom to operate and, and develop whatever is required for a local audience. That's what the FanDuel team have done so successfully over the years. If I, if I look at the, you know, the quality of the product, you know, we are very proud of the fact that we rank so highly. Speed and ease of use are, are crucial, and we continue to develop and innovate the product.

You know, we've got, you know, plans for the short term and plans for the long term. Clearly, I'm not going to disclose those, you know, today to competitors, but, you know, rest assured we're investing very heavily in, in maintaining our, our product leadership in the market.

Ryan Sigdahl (Senior Research Analyst)

Thanks, Peter. Good luck, guys.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, sir. Thank you, sir. Our next question is coming from Dan Politzer, calling from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead, sir.

Dan Politzer (Director of Equity Research Analyst - Gaming, Lodging, and Leisure)

Hey, good morning, everyone, thanks for taking my questions. First one, just one of your, one of your competitors in the U.S. last night announced a partnership with ESPN. I just wanted to get your, your sense of, you know, one, did you, did you look at that type of deal? Two, how you think about promotional expectations going into the third quarter, does this change anything? Also there's another big competitor, Fanatics, here. You know, just the extent you're thinking about this promotional season with the NFL. The second question was about 12%. I think there were some favorable sport outcomes in there. What was that on a, you know, a normalized or normalized basis, excluding those outcomes?

How do you think about this trending over time, given, you know, it seems like you're bumping up against that 12% 2025 goal. Thanks.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Well, good morning, Dan. Another one who's up early, so, you know, appreciate it. Look, you know, the, the start of every football season, and football, as you know, is, is always one which is, you know, we have a degree of sort of trepidation for us, because we, you know, we've got to reactivate and reenergize our, our, our book of business. I mean, you know, look, we've, we've done this many times now, but, you know, still, you know, we always anticipate, you know, a highly competitive, you know, environment when we, when we get, you know, when we see the season restart. Look, this year will be no different.

You know, I think as you, as you rightly point out, there's there are a few people who have stated that they intend to make a bit of a splash this year. You know, we, we will stay focused on what we've always done, which is making sure we deliver a brilliant experience to our customers by having, you know, the best product and using our fantastic sort of leading engaging brand. You know, you asked me whether we look at, you know, deals and transactions in the U.S. market, and of course we do, right? You know, I think, you know, we, we do the ones we want to do, and we, we, we leave others to do the ones that we don't want to do.

That, that's probably all I'd, all I'd say about that particular one. Paul, do you want to talk about the margin?

Paul Tymms (Group Director of Investor Relations and FPA)

If I cover the margin. Our actual gross win margin in the period was 12.2%, and as you saw in the presentation, expected gross win margin 11.3%. That does benefit from 170 basis points of structural margin improvement. That's again, a combination of what we've seen over the last 12 months of increased pricing accuracy, increased parlay penetration. We did talk about a target of 12% expected gross win margin target by 2025. I guess the question is, you know, how quickly are we getting there? We're making very good progress towards that 12%, clearly already at 11.3%. There are quite a few moving parts in there, though. Yeah, is it a question of do we go through the 12%?

Potentially, but a lot to work through. It may just be a question of we're getting there quicker.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

I mean, Paul, I, I'd add, I mean, I think that the scale of our business in the U.S. now and the investments we're making to risk and trading, the amount of data that we see and our ability to sort of, you know, really focus on pricing accuracy is something which I think makes a particular difference, especially when people are thinking about some of that sort of complex parlay bets. That's one of the things that's really helping support that structural margin and help sort of accelerate our path. Thank you, Dan.

Dan Politzer (Director of Equity Research Analyst - Gaming, Lodging, and Leisure)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, sir. We now move to Monique Pollard, calling from Citi. Please go ahead.

Monique Pollard (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Hi. Morning, everyone. I just have a couple of questions on the U.S. from the slide that you gave, where you're showing sort of how we should think about modeling those cost items out to 2025. The first one was on the U.S. COGS. I just wanted to question again whether the 47.5%-52.5% of revenue is a bit conservative, given obviously New York relative exposure shrinks as new states launch. You know, is there some tax creep being assumed in there, which I guess might be reasonable given what we've seen in Ohio? Is there any fall in generosity as a proportion of GGR that's embedded in that guidance? The second question on the U.S. expenses, is on sales and marketing expense.

Your 2024-2025 framework outlines that you're going to approach basically your 2030 target on EBITDA margin pretty quickly, you know, maybe in by 2026. Just trying to understand what drives the material scaling of the marketing budget from here?

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Morning, morning, Monique. Look, here, let, let me give you some sort of, sort of, overall sort of context or sort of shape around this stuff, and then Paul can come in on the, on the specifics. Yeah, I think when we, when we look at the, the COGS, yeah, I think, you know, we, we have to sort of acknowledge, you know, acknowledge there's quite a lot of sort of moving parts here around, you know, costs of data, you know, and rights, you know, the tax changes, those types of things. Here, you know, in fact, where we are today, you know, this is our best view of what we think is going to happen. You're right to highlight the sort of, you know, tax creep in are higher.

You know, look, we, we don't anticipate there being a sort of wholesale shift in the tax burden, and I think you're, you're right to highlight that New York does, to some extent, get, get diluted. I think when we think about generosity, the big driver for us is actually around, you know, a, a very focused, you know, and an increasing sort of focus on sort of personalized generosity. It's something we've done very successfully in the U.K., we've done it very successfully in Australia as well. It makes a really big difference, and it's obviously a very large sort of cost item for us. From a, from a marketing perspective, you know, we operate in a, you know, pretty saturated environment, and actually it's quite hard to significantly scale that. I think you do get some natural benefits.

you know, so look, I think what we're really showing here is the benefits of our scale. you know, Paul, you can come in on the...

Paul Tymms (Group Director of Investor Relations and FPA)

Yeah, I, I, I think that's right. Just on the sales and marketing, you're right, Monique. We do the scale that we have and, and quite simply, the, the new states are a smaller proportion of the overall revenue mix, which means that we do start to see that leverage come through pretty quickly on the sales and marketing line. We've said, I mean, the midpoint is, is six % points leverage benefit per year. That, that will be quicker in, in the first year than the second year, through to 2025.

Monique Pollard (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Got it. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you much, Ms. Pollard. Our next question today is coming from Alistair Johnson, calling from BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead, sir.

Alistair Johnson (Vice President of Internet Analyst)

Morning, guys. I had a couple of questions on the same slide, actually. On the OpEx increases, it looks like you're expecting some quite material growth there. Just if you could provide some color on what's driving that? Then secondly, within the OpEx number, how should we think about management incentives? Because I think on your guidance slide further in the deck, it looks like some of the cash costs are being adjusted out, but under the understanding that you historically have included management comp within your EBITDA numbers, so just if there's any change to the accounting there. Thank you.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Yeah, look, I can very quickly deal with that, that second one. We, we, unlike, you know, I think the way that some people account for these things, we, we fully account for all management incentives and all, all the share-based comp included in those, in those numbers. Paul, I don't know whether you want to talk about the OpEx, please.

Paul Tymms (Group Director of Investor Relations and FPA)

On that slide, we, we talk about one % point leverage benefit per year through our 2030 targets, which does get us to OpEx of 10% revenues, so pretty much straight-line. In terms of OpEx movements in the half, 45% increase, we still think that demonstrates good leverage vs the revenue growth of 63%. We still are in an investment phase. We do, I mean, back to the share-based payments point, again, we do include share-based payments within our, within our OpEx, you know. We've always been disciplined throughout the group on our OpEx spend, but the business is still growing quickly and we seem to be seeing good leverage.

Alistair Johnson (Vice President of Internet Analyst)

Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you much, sir. We'll now move to Richard Stuber, calling from Numis. Please go ahead.

Richard Stuber (Director)

Hi. Good morning, both of you. Just one question from me. Your U.S. active.

Operator (participant)

Richard, your line is open.

Richard Stuber (Director)

Hello, can you hear me?

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Yeah, we can, we can hear you, Richard. Yeah.

Richard Stuber (Director)

Cool. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Richard, can you just check your line is open from our side? Yes, I think he can hear us.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

George, we, we can hear him.

Operator (participant)

Yeah, Richard, what I'm going to do is I'm going to remove you from the queue and move the next question. Please press star again. I will try to get you requeued.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

George, I can hear you.

Operator (participant)

We cannot hear you.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

I can hear Richard. I can hear Richard.

Operator (participant)

We'll now move to James Rowland Clark of Barclays. Please go ahead.

James Rowland Clark (Equity Research Analyst)

Hi there. Can you hear me?

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Yes, we can hear you.

Operator (participant)

Can hear you.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Sorry.

Operator (participant)

Yeah. Sorry, R- Richard.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Richard, we'll get you in next. I apologize.

James Rowland Clark (Equity Research Analyst)

I've got a couple of questions, please. The first is just on the deferred tax asset that you've outlined in the modeling assumptions of $166 million. I wondered if you could give any color on how long it would take for that to unwind. Also, could I just check that the recognized deferred tax asset is the full extent of the U.S. losses built up so far? There isn't any sort of off balance sheet you haven't yet recognized, for example. Then on, on the U.S., yeah, we've, we're, we're seeing your closest and largest competitor taking a little bit of share on, on, in online sports betting, and I think you've slowed down a little bit on, on improved product. They're also talking about having the leading products going into the, the second half.

I, I just wondered if you could give any color on whether you're seeing your customers spend, change at all, or whether you're aware of engagement metrics suggesting that they're playing on multiple or more products than they previously did? I, and I suppose a follow-up would be, given the, you know, intensity of competition on products, or, or so it seems, going into the second half, how does that make you feel about leaning into customer, growth from here or new customer growth from here? Thank you.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Okay. Well, James, let me take the second question first, then Paul will talk to us about the deferred tax asset. Yes. I think, when I look at our performance in Q2 with a 47% market share, you know, I'm very, very pleased with it. You know, I mean, you know, yes, it is down a bit on the same period last year, I think for context, we should remember that a number of operators were sort of pulling back from the market last year. Still, you know, 47% is a very, very strong performance. I think that the, you know. We should also, you know, you know, recognize that, you know, people are making changes and improvements to their products. Of course they are.

We are a fast-moving target, and we make 50% more revenue from every $1 of handle from our customers than our competitors do, and we're taking that money, and we're investing it in further, you know, further product and enhancements, getting smarter around our application of, of generosity and, and in general, just sort of boosting the business. That means that our, you know, our product, which is the best in the market today, is a very fast-moving target for people to try and catch up with. You know, we're not gonna share on the call today the, you know, the, the plans that we have, but we are, you know, we remain, you know, very paranoid around our sort of posture to, to maintain our product leadership, but, you know, confident that we can do so at, at, at the same time.

Paul Tymms (Group Director of Investor Relations and FPA)

On the deferred tax, we'll recognize a GBP 166 million sterling credit for U.S. deferred tax this year. In terms of how does that unwind, we can't comment on how that unwinds, because obviously, that relates directly to our U.S. profitability going forward. We would say that we expect the group tax rate, so group ex-U.S. and U.S., to be roughly in line with the group the current group ex-U.S. tax rate going forward.

James Rowland Clark (Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you. Sorry, can I just, just to follow up on the, is there any change in your spending within your existing customer mix, you know, to suggest that they're using more products than they previously did?

Peter Jackson (CEO)

No.

James Rowland Clark (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you much, sir. We'll now go back to Mr. Richard Stuber. Please go ahead, sir. Very sorry about earlier. Here we go.

Richard Stuber (Director)

Hi, morning, Peter and Paul. Just one question from me. On the U.S., U.S. actives fallen both from $3.5 million in the first quarter to $2.8 million in the second quarter. I was wondering, how do you keep your players engaged? Is it such as more sort of product or other sports? Do you think you'll ever be able to maintain and grow actives quarter-on-quarter, like you do in the rest of the world? Is it just the seasonality in the U.S. is just too big from sporting events such as Super Bowl and March Madness?

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Richard, you've answered your own question.

Richard Stuber (Director)

Okay.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

I mean, that, that, that's, that's the nature of it, right? You know, we, we, in the years that we've been operating there, we've seen that seasonality. Look, there are, you know, there's seasonality in other parts of the world, right? You know, our Italian business is pretty quiet in August, right? You know, in July and August. Yeah, we, we see seasonality in, in Australia, as, as well, you know, particularly early, early on in the year. So, yeah, it's, it's not a, it's not, an aberration to, to find ourselves in that situation in the U.S., and I think the team have got pretty accomplished at making sure that we can sort of, you know, re-engage the, the customers who've been active on, on, on the platform as, you know, as soon as things come back, to life.

Richard Stuber (Director)

Okay, great. Thanks. You don't, don't see that you can sort of try and cross-sell extra product or anything like that, to those sort of sports betting customers during Q2? You think that's just the, the nature of the U.S.?

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Look, you know, tennis and, and sports like that, which are popular year-round, you know, are, are always there for, for people to, to bet on. You know, there's just is a degree of seasonality, and, you know, we're, we're, we're comfortable with that.

Richard Stuber (Director)

Great. Thank you very much.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Thanks, Richard. Apologies for earlier.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Sorry about that again. Our next question is coming from Kiranjot Grewal, calling from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Kiranjot Grewal (Equity Analyst and Director)

Hey. My first one on the U.S. iGaming. I think on slide 29, we can see that your iGaming market share ramped up quite a bit from mid 2022, but it's flatlined in recent months. Do you think there's more you can do to increase that share, or do you think you're comfortable with where you've got to? Thanks.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Do you have any other questions, Kiranjot?

Kiranjot Grewal (Equity Analyst and Director)

The only other question I have is around the secondary list. I'm not sure how much you can actually say, but any implications to existing lists, and would you look to drop one of the listings to just maintain two?

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Okay. So look, on the iGaming share, look, we're ambitious, okay? We, we knew last year when we sort of talked about iGaming, that our product wasn't good enough. You know, look, we, we, we saw this as a sort of multiyear operation, and we, you know, we started to address some of the things that were, you know, were not in place, frankly, last year. You know, having a dedicated team, brand, you know, content, capabilities, et cetera. We, we did that, and we've seen... You know, we've, we've been really pleased with the way in which the, the business has, has grown and taken share. We've got a, you know, bunch of improvements we've made this year, which we, you know, we cover in the, in the presentation, which we think will provide further support for the business.

We've got exciting plans into, into next year as well. You know, we think we'll get to product leadership in, in, in iGaming. Obviously, that will enable us to continue to take significant, you know, share, both in the, you know, casino direct market as well as the cross-selling market. You know, look, we, we are, you know, the world's biggest, you know, regulated online casino operator, so we know how to do this stuff. We just, you know, haven't always brought those capabilities, you know, in, into the US market, but, you know, we've done that now, and, and that's why I think that share is, is stepping up.

With, with regards to your question around the sort of, you know, the, the U.S. listing, I mean, you know, I think as we've, as, you know, as you've, you know, mentioned in your, in your question, look, we're, we're working through the implications for, for our other listings on securing this US listing. There's a lot of work we're doing with the, with the SEC at the moment, in, in terms of preparing our application for the SEC, which, which is ongoing. And we, you know, we'll continue to work in the background on what the implications are for, you know, for our other listings.

Operator (participant)

Perfect. Thank you. Thank you, ma'am. Our next question is coming from Joe Stauff, Goldman Sachs with Dana. Please go ahead, sir.

Joe Stauff (Managing Director)

Good morning, Peter and Paul. I, I did wanna follow up maybe on an additional question on slide 29, just kind of talking about your U.S. iGaming position. I, I wondered if you could maybe give us, like, a read on kind of your relative market share of, say, the sports first iCasino customer vs, say, the, you know, the online iCasino first customer? Then the second question to that is, you know, with PokerStars essentially freed up, you know, in the U.S., I was wondering if, if you would use that possibly as a second brand?

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Yes. Good morning, Joe, and thank you for again, for another one for getting up so early. Look, in terms of iGaming, you know, we've been really pleased with the market share growth we've taken, which has mainly actually been in the direct casino market. That's where we've seen the majority of our gains. I think that's just simply because you know, we've been fixing some of the issues that we knew were there in the product, but also bringing some new innovations to market, such as the sort of daily free-to-play mechanics that we've know have been successful elsewhere.

You know, in, in terms of, you know, how we will utilize the PokerStars brand, I mean, we, you know, we now have clarity around, you know, you know, around the, the future of that and the, and the ownership structure of it. We've had it in market a while. Clearly, it's been focused on, you know, primarily focused on sort of poker first and, you know, we're, we're pleased with some of the performance we have. You know, we're, we're not averse to running multiple brands and, you know. Look, we, we will figure out how we, you know, utilize that in the most effective way moving forwards.

Joe Stauff (Managing Director)

Thanks, guys.

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much, sir. Our next question is coming from Joe Thomas, from HSBC. Please go ahead.

Joe Thomas (Equity Research Analyst)

Good, good morning, Peter, and morning, Paul. A couple of questions, please. Firstly, Australia, margins, I think, down 950 basis points in the H1, down to, from recall, about 25% or so. Can you just clarify... 26.4, just looking at the slide. Is that business long-term impaired now? If not, how do you expect to get back towards that sort of 30+% level? That'd be the first question, please. Second question, really regards the U.K.. Obviously a very good U.K. performance, despite having removed some generosity around things like Best Odds Guaranteed.

Just wondering if you can give us a bit more clarity about what you think is driving that in particular, if it's sports or casino. Thank you.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Yeah, Joe, morning. Yeah, apologies if that's impacted you, you know, in terms of the changes to the Best Odds Guaranteed. No, look, I think from a U.K. perspective, we are very pleased with the product changes we've made. You know, the Bet Builder stuff had a, you know, profound impact on customer engagement. You know, we've been really pleased. I think, you know, as we mentioned in the presentation, 90% of customers who, you know, betting on the World Cup are, you know, still on the platform, which I think is a good testament to the products at least we've made.

It's not just in sports either, you know, we've made a bunch of changes around gaming as well, whether that's some of the Paddy Power branded, you know, slots and some of the live products we've brought on stream for, for Vegas as well. We've also made a heap of changes to the way in which we tackle and present generosity to customers, which we think is really important. It's a very large cost item for us and, you know, we know around the world how important it is to drive the, you know, to drive the performance of the business. Yeah, I think all of those, you know, product changes have, have helped.

Getting ahead of the safer gambling stuff, you know, in comparison with our competitors, I think is also sort of in good stead, because we've been able to sort of, you know, work out how to manage the business in this new environment. Other people are having to sort of jam on the, the, the handbrake to try and, to try and do it. I think that's what's contributing to the performance. You know, look, the team in general, you know, we've got our mojo back, just delighted with what's happening from a U.K. perspective. Look, in, in Australia, Paul will give you some more specific aspects of, you know, I'll give you a bit of context.

Yeah, I think we need to remember, you know, we're, we're sat in a similar situation to the one that we saw in, in 2019, where there was a step up in, in taxes, at, at that point. What we saw happen as, as a result of that was, you know, there's a bunch of generosity changes, there's some consolidation in the market, and there was also, you know, you know, you know, a bunch of competitors, not us, though, made changes to their overrounds, trying to protect their positions. Ultimately, scale is, is the most important, you know, attribute in the market, and we have by far the best position in the Australian market with, with Sportsbet, the market leading brand and the size of the customer base. Paul, I don't know...

Paul Tymms (Group Director of Investor Relations and FPA)

I think that covers it very well, so.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Okay.

Joe Thomas (Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks a lot.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Okay.

Operator (participant)

Thank you.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Well, look, George, I think that's us done for questions now. Thank you very much to everybody for participating.

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much, gentlemen. Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's conference. We thank you for your attendance. You may now disconnect.