Flutter Entertainment - H1 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Flutter Q2 Results Call, hosted by CEO Peter Jackson and CFO Rob Coldrake. There will be a chance to ask questions later, but I will now hand the call over to Paul Tymms, Group Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Paul Tymms (Group Director of Investor Relations)

Hi, everyone, and welcome to Flutter's Q2 Results Call. With me this afternoon in New York are Flutter CEO, Peter Jackson, and CFO, Rob Coldrake. After this short intro, Peter will open up with a brief summary of our operational progress during the quarter, and then Rob will run through the Q2 financials and our updated 2024 guidance. We'll then open up the lines for Q and A. Some of the information we are providing today, including our 2024 guidance, constitutes forward-looking statements that involves risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual outcomes or results to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. These factors are detailed in our earnings press release and our SEC filings. In addition, all forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement except as required by law.

Also, in our remarks or responses to questions, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations are included in the results materials we have released today, available in the Investors section of our website. I will now hand you over to Peter.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Thank you, Paul. I'm delighted to be joining you today from New York, the home of our new operational headquarters, following our primary listing move back in May. With me is Rob Coldrake, Flutter's CFO. This is obviously Rob's first call since he started as CFO on May 31st. He has certainly hit the ground running, given his experience within the group, and I know he's looking forward to meeting you all in due course. It's also appropriate to acknowledge that in recent weeks, one of the group's founders, David Power, passed away. He was a long-standing supporter of this business and a great sounding board for me and generations of Flutter leaders. May he rest in peace. I'll now turn to the performance of the business in Q2. It was a very strong quarter for the group and ahead of market expectations.

We delivered AMP growth of 17% and revenue growth of 20%, reflecting excellent execution against our strategic priorities and positive sports results. We have outperformed in our major markets: U.S. sports and iGaming, U.K., Ireland, and Italy, providing great momentum for the second half of the year. In the U.S., FanDuel had an exceptional quarter, with nearly 40% share of the entire U.S. sports betting and iGaming market. Our market-leading products, underpinned by the Flutter Edge and continued disciplined customer acquisition investments, are driving our performance in the market. The improvements we delivered in our NBA, WNBA, and MLB products are increasing parlay penetration, driving up our structural hold and player retention rates, resulting in continued strong returns on player acquisition investment. In the quarter, both AMPs and new players increased by over 30% for sportsbook and iGaming compared to the prior year.

This reflects a strong start in North Carolina, where we have 59% of the market and 20% growth in new players from pre-2022 states. These excellent KPIs point to a long runway of growth in these states and the market more broadly. They also indicate the consistent posture we've taken since the market launch by investing behind FanDuel's excellent return on customer acquisition. In iGaming, we completed an important milestone with the migration of FanDuel Casino onto our proprietary technology. In time, this will unlock important benefits through access to in-house content, promotional capabilities, and also greater platform stability. This, combined with the launch of more exclusive titles and promotional features in the quarter, are further evidence of the fantastic roadmap of improvements we still have for our iGaming players.

Outside of the U.S., the group's scale and diversification contributed to AMP and revenue growth of 15% and 10% respectively. The Euros is the marquee event of the quarter, with our UKI, and Italian businesses delivering same-game parlay product improvements for players in advance of the tournament. Sisal is the first operator to offer same-game parlay in Italy, proof of the benefits of Flutter's Edge when it comes to delivering compelling product advantages for our brands in their local markets. Sisal same-game parlay accounted for nearly 20% of stakes on the Euros and helped deliver a record market share performance for Sisal in the quarter. This encapsulates the strong performance in Sisal since acquisition, where, on a pro forma basis over the last two years, AMPs have increased by 60% and revenue by 37%.

In the UKI, all our brands are delivering excellent growth, combining for a tenth straight quarter of market share gains based on gambling commission data. In iGaming, we leveraged the Paddy Power brand in launching Paddy's Mansion Heist, our most successful live casino game launch ever. In Australia, the previously noted and anticipated declines in the racing market were evident in the quarter. However, we saw strong customer engagement around marquee rugby events, where player acquisition doubled year over year. Overall, the group had a very strong quarter, strengthening our leadership position in the U.S. and delivering excellent momentum in our diversified ex-U.S. business. With that, I'll hand you over to Rob.

Rob Coldrake (CFO)

Thanks, Peter. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining the call. It's a really exciting time to be stepping into the CFO role, and I'm delighted with the current momentum in the business. The group delivered a really strong performance in the quarter, with revenue growth of 20% and Adjusted EBITDA growth of 17% to $738 million. The group had net income of $297 million on a reported basis, which is after non-cash expenses, including the amortization of acquired intangibles of $147 million.

And a $91 million gain on the fair value of the Fox option. Diluted earnings per share increased 290%, while adjusted earnings per share increased 56%, due to the strong financial performance and the positive movement in the Fox option. Free cash flow was $171 million, versus a cash outflow of $95 million in the prior year. Our strong deleveraging profile saw our leverage ratio reduced to 2.6x, from 3.1x at the end of December 2023. We are almost within our medium-term leverage target range of 2-2.5x. We look forward to updating you on our capital allocation framework and the range of capital allocation opportunities we have at our Investor Day on September 25. Turning now to each of the segments.

In the U.S., the exceptional quarter noted by Peter translated to excellent financial returns, with revenue growth of 39% and Adjusted EBITDA growth of 51%. Pleasingly, this strong growth is across all state cohort types, with pre-2022 state launch revenue up 33% year over year, including pre-2020 launches, 27% higher. Sportsbook revenue grew 41%, from stakes growth of 35%, and a further expansion of our structural sportsbook net revenue margin. iGaming revenue is 47% higher, reflecting the gains we are making in the direct casino segment of the market, from the product improvements the team have delivered over the last two years. This revenue performance, combined with operating leverage in sales and marketing, helped deliver Adjusted EBITDA of $260 million, well ahead of market expectations.

Outside of the U.S., revenue increased 10% due to the strong performances in UK and Ireland, International. In UK and Ireland, the combination of continued iGaming momentum, the European Football Championships, and positive sports results drove revenue and Adjusted EBITDA 18% higher. Sports results were were very favorable in the quarter, adding 190 basis points to our sports book net revenue margin. Positive results were most notable during the Euros, which continued into July. The previously noted softer Australian racing market resulted in associated year on year declines in that market, with revenue down 10%. In International, the addition of MaxBet and 12% constant currency revenue growth in our other consolidated investee markets, drove revenue 16% higher on a constant currency basis. Turning now to our updated guidance for 2024.

In the U.S., we have increased our midpoint revenue guidance to $6.2 billion and Adjusted EBITDA midpoint to $740 million. This equates to year over year growth of 41% for revenue and 219% for Adjusted EBITDA. This reflects the strong momentum we have in the business, including the excellent performance in Q2, including the sports results benefit, and is after the $40 million net impact of the tax changes introduced in Illinois in July. The gross tax impact in Illinois is $50 million in 2024, and we expect to mitigate 50% of the tax from 2025 onwards. That is prior to any additional second-order benefits, such as market share gains from subscale players, which we have typically seen where regulatory or tax changes have been implemented in our other markets.

On a quarterly basis in the U.S., we expect a small EBITDA loss in Q3, with significant earnings to be generated in Q4. In the Group ex-U.S., we now expect both increased revenue of $8 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $1.77 billion at the midpoint of our guidance. This equates to year over year growth of 8% for both metrics. As always, our guidance is provided on the basis that sports results are in line with our expectations for the remainder of the year, current foreign exchange rates, no new state openings for the remainder of the year, and in a consistent regulatory and tax environment. This guidance demonstrates the strong momentum we have across the group. With that, Peter and I are happy to take your questions. In the interest of time, can we ask that, as usual, we limit it to two questions per person? With that, I'll hand you back to Jeremy to manage the call.

Operator (participant)

All right. Thank you so much. To ask a question today, please press star, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. All right, our first question comes from Clark Lampen from BTIG. Please go ahead.

Clark Lampen (Managing Director)

Thanks. Good evening, guys. Appreciate you taking the questions. Peter, I wanted to see if we could open up by talking about U.S. performance. Two key results were nicely ahead. Full year guidance was raised net of Illinois. I think Rob said pre-2022 state growth was up 33%. Could you give us a little bit more color around, I guess, just what sort of driving, you know, sort of strong results right now, and what also is embedded for back half guidance? Second question I have is related to the $40 million net headwind that you guys called out from Illinois. As we think about managing potential additional increases in taxes going forward, what are the key levers that you guys have at your disposal to mitigate those headwinds? And is a potential tax surcharge on player winnings may be part of that calculus?Thanks very much.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Thank you, for the questions, Clark, and it's nice to be talking to you in your time zone for, for once, and long may this, continue. Let, let me give you some just thoughts around the U.S. performance, and then I think I'll probably ask Rob just to give us the, the major, major building blocks. Yeah, as I said in, in my opening remarks, I'm really pleased to see the strong performance in Q2. And I think it's a really good vindication of the posture that we've adopted in the market of acquiring as much business as we can whilst ever we meet our return criteria. And to remind you, that's of, you know, just to make sure that we can see, you know, less than a two-year payback. And I think that we pushed hard in the first half, and you can definitely see the benefits of that come through in the player numbers, the increase in acquisition that we saw in Q2. I think it stands us really good stead, in good stead as we go into the back half of the year. But, you know, Rob, maybe you want to just talk about the building blocks.

Rob Coldrake (CFO)

Yeah, I think first of all, Clark, I'm delighted to be talking about an upgrade to the full-year guidance for revenue and EBITDA in my first earnings call. As Peter said, you know, we've had a terrific performance in Q2, and that's partly driven by the positive sports results. What we see as a result of that is extremely strong drop through in Q2. Without looking forward to the second half, the second half of the year still accounts for 40% of the revenue upgrade, but that won't directly drop through to EBITDA for a couple of reasons. Firstly, we're choosing to invest a further $20 million behind customer acquisition, given those returns that we continue to see, well within our kind of 24-month paybacks that we've previously stated.

That, that momentum should set us up really well for 2025 as we take a larger business into next year. In addition, we've got an additional $20 million of operating costs, and that's partly due to the higher payment costs, which have been driven by the change in player behavior, and more frequent deposits and withdrawals, and partly due to some additional costs associated with the BeyondPlay acquisition. If you then factor in the net Illinois impact of $40 million, you get to the full year guidance. So essentially, the full year upgrade, excluding Illinois, drops through at 35%, or it's 15% ex Illinois. So we're absolutely delighted with that.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Thank you, Rob. And look, I suspect, you know, Clark, you've got a question around the situation in Illinois, and I can imagine that a number of other people will have questions around how we're thinking about positioning ourselves in it. So I think it probably makes sense for me just to give a slightly more expansive answer to that question. And then I don't anticipate us needing to, you know, to answer the question on it subsequently for other people. To start with, I think it's important to recognize that there's a happy medium for tax rates that enables operators to maximize market growth, provides the best experience for customers, and over time, maximizes revenue for states. And most states have taken a sensible approach to date.

I do think, though, that instituting a graduated tax system that punishes those who've invested the most to, you know, to grow their businesses is wrong. I think it'll drive customers to offshore operators or potentially to onshore operators who are offering unregulated and untaxed prop parlays under the guise of sweepstakes. We have lots of pattern recognition of operating internationally in high tax locations, and our experience is that moderating levels of generosity, or indeed reducing local marketing, is the best response. As Rob mentioned, we often find as well that, you know, smaller players may also have to increase their prices, which leads to us capturing more share, which provides an offset for us. So we think that, you know, the moderating level of generosity and reducing local marketing is the best customer option, and we have no plans to introduce a surcharge for winners.

Clark Lampen (Managing Director)

Thanks very much.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Jordan Bender from Citizens JMP. Please go ahead.

Jordan Bender (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Good afternoon, everyone. Maybe just to follow on the CPA questions. You know, in Q2 here, that's been a big theme or topic across most players in the space. So, you know, are you seeing acquisition costs fall kind of equally across iGaming and sports betting? And, you know, can you maybe point to us why this is happening maybe year to date? And then the second question off of that, the updated U.S. guidance implies an increase in OpEx for the full year, even after kind of accounting for the Illinois impact. Are the declining CPAs kind of that core reason why you're stepping up investment here, or is there anything else you're seeing into the market or into football season here that kind of allows you to invest more? Thank you.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Thanks, Jordan. On a CPA basis, if I look at it, you know, Q2 this year with Q2 last year, we actually would see that our, you know, costs have come down a little bit, even with the significant increase in customers that we, customer numbers that we've acquired. It's often difficult to try and look very precise at it, because you do get an impact of new state launches, which can often dilute the CPA cost because of our large DFS customer base that we can sort of cross-sell into and other mechanisms that we have that give us advantages. So I think, you know, what's important is that we're maintaining the consistent posture that we've had in the market to acquire as much business as we can whilst we meet our return criteria.

And we're very confident, you know, in offering the best prices to customers in the market and the best products in the market that we will, you know, maintain high levels of, you know, customer lifetime value. And together with the, you know, the significant benefits we get in customer acquisition, you know, it gives us real confidence to continue to acquire as much business as we can.

Rob Coldrake (CFO)

I think in relation.

Jordan Bender (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thanks, Peter.

Rob Coldrake (CFO)

The second part of your question. Sure. So as Peter said, you know, we're investing behind what we're seeing as some very strong paybacks. I think from an operating cost perspective, we've got the BeyondPlay cost that I mentioned in the second half of the year. We're also seeing some slightly higher payment costs. You know, we're very comfortable with the position that we've got for the second half of the year. I, as I mentioned also earlier, we've got some very good momentum coming into the second half of the year from a revenue perspective. You know, one of the other things that we will be very focused on through the second half of the year moving forward is actually driving more operating leverage.

You know, all the costs are coming into focus. We're really looking to be as efficient and optimal as we can from a cost base perspective, but, you know, we do have a couple of additional costs. I think in addition, you've got the cost that we previously outlined in terms of investing behind the Flutter Edge capabilities and also some regulatory compliance costs in conjunction with our U.S. listing. But we previously signposted both of those, and they're in line with our expectations.

Jordan Bender (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Awesome. Thank you both.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Ed Young, from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Ed Young (Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Good evening. My first question is on the cohort growth that you talked through, Rob, on Slide 6. It presents as very bullish to see obviously strong growth across all these different cohorts. I perhaps wonder if broad brush, you could give some color on the relative mix of AMP growth and revenue per AMP growth you're seeing across those different cohorts, just to give us an understanding over what's driving some of that across the different areas. And then second of all, perhaps a novelty of a non-U.S. question. In U.K. and Ireland, obviously, the Euros was known to be a good event, but you've obviously had much stronger iGaming growth than sports betting growth. I just wonder if you could give a bit more color on what's driven that and how you've seen the tournament progress from where you were pre-tournament. Thanks.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Hi, Ed. Yeah, good evening. Yeah, let me give you, you know, just a few thoughts about the cohort growth, you know, to make things, and I think this is probably where you're coming from. But, you know, we continue to see increase in increases in things like our parlay penetration in our historical cohorts. You know, I think that's been something which has been very beneficial to us. You know, it, if I think about that together with the step ups we've seen in our sort of structural margin position, has really helped drive the historical cohort performance. You know, and I think, you know, it's true, you know, and you can see that in all of the different time frames that we lay out. Rob, I don't know whether there any nuances about it.

Rob Coldrake (CFO)

Yeah, I think specifically, Ed, you know, we're very confident in, you know, the major cohorts and the growth they're driving. So pre-2022 state acquisition revenue is up 16%, amps are up 20%. In 2022 and 2023, cohort state revenue is up to 45%. So, you know, we've got some incredible growth coming through there. With regards to the U.K. performance and the Euros specifically, I mean, we're absolutely delighted. You know, the fact that Harry Kane didn't have his shooting boots on, you know, helped us with that, and we obviously exited Q2 with some great momentum, and that continued into the third quarter with the first half of the month with the Euros.

But in addition to that, I think what's almost more encouraging for the U.K. is the gaming performance. So we're seeing some excellent gaming momentum this year, and actually all four brands in the U.K. are posting gaming growth of 20% plus year on year, which we're particularly happy with. So, you know, U.K. is in very good shape at the moment as we move into H2.

Ed Young (Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Ryan Sigdahl, from Craig-Hallum Capital Group. Please go ahead.

Ryan Sigdahl (Senior Research Analyst)

Hey, good afternoon, guys. I wanna start, there's been a couple rumors you might sign an agreement with Diamond Sports Group during naming rights for regional sports networks, separately, potentially looking at Penn Interactive, ESPN BET. No need to comment specifically on those rumors or directly, but curious how you think about media tie-ins and what you've learned from other markets. And then secondly, second question, Caesars sold their intellectual property for World Series of Poker to GGPoker, your main global competitor. Just curious how you think that may impact the competitive dynamics and, and your strategy around poker. Thanks.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Thank you, Ryan. Look, I think we've always been able to benefit from our, you know, strong media tie-ins here in the U.S.

Ryan Sigdahl (Senior Research Analyst)

Yeah.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Scale is definitely our friend and, you know, we, you know, I think if I look at historically the, you know, the way in which we've been able to showcase our products and pricing with, you know, good integrations, I think it's always been important for us, and I think it's, you know, part of what's helped with our strong customer acquisition performance. I think it's, of course, really important you've got a quality product you can back it up with, right? There's no point in people testing and trialing a product and finding that they don't like it.

You know, we're fortunate that we have the, you know, the best product in the market. Yeah, I think from a sort of Caesars perspective, you're right. You know, they have done this deal with, you know, I think with GG Poker, it's the global competitor to our poker business, albeit one which operates in a lot of markets that we wouldn't be prepared to operate in. So I think, you know, there's some interesting questions there for some of those people involved. You know, I think, you know, the PokerStars business, it provides us, you know, with an important opportunity in the US market. I think, you know, the extent to which we can get shared liquidity across states, you know, can give us some advantages.

There is, so, you know, when you look at it around the world, poker is breaking down into smaller segments from a liquidity perspective, and I think, we’re reasonably in, you know, in a reasonably strong position in some of those regulated markets because of the strength of the local hero brands that we have.

Rob Coldrake (CFO)

Yeah, I think just to add to Peter's point, from a poker perspective, we talked about at Q1, the fact that we'd started to embark on a transformation for PokerStars. That's progressing really well, very pleased with the progress, and actually by later this year, we'll, you know, see our poker platform rolled out into Italy, which I think, you know, demonstrates our agility and how quickly we can move there. Also, from a performance perspective, PokerStars is, you know, doing very well. In the U.S., we're seeing some real green shoots, and we're very optimistic about how big that business can become there. I think secondly, when you look at the PokerStars business in the rest of the world, you know, we continue to see the positive impact of some pricing initiatives that we've put in play. We've made some changes to poker loyalty, which has resulted in cost savings, and we've also had a number of offset savings across our casino products. So we're really happy with the way that we're trending on poker overall.

Operator (participant)

Great. Thanks, guys. All right, our next question comes from James Rowland Clark from Barclays. Please go ahead.

James Clark (Equity Research)

Hi, good evening. Thanks for taking questions and well done on great Q2. My first question is on Australia. You said there's no change to online trends, and the upgraded EBITDA guide is sports results driven. Can you just, you know, give us some color on what you're focused on particularly there that provides some confidence that trends have bottomed out, as you previously mentioned? And then secondly, a sort of slightly nitty-gritty question on the interest charge, which is guided up from $370 million to $405 million due to a delay in previously expected interest income benefits. Is this, does this raise the interest charge in out years, or is this just a timing thing? Thank you.

Rob Coldrake (CFO)

Yeah, so I can pick up both those questions. So, you know, firstly, in Australia, I think we're really pleased with the performance that we've seen in the quarter. I think it's demonstrating a really resilient performance in the face of quite a tough regulatory backdrop. So as we said, you know, we're seeing really good customer momentum, and underlying trends are in line with the expected market declines that we've previously signposted. You know, we're particularly seeing strong customer engagement on marquee events like the State of Origin games in rugby, where we've doubled the customer acquisition year over year. So some really good momentum in sports, in particular, in Australia, outside of racing. And, you know, as we said, we've had a benefit from sports results in the Q as well.

So, you know, factoring all of that in, you know, that's driving the upgrade in Australia, which we're very pleased with. I think from an interest perspective, some of the projects that we had talked about previously to unlock cash efficiency across the wider group now won't land until 2025, when we'd originally envisaged from H2 2024. So, you know, that's making up half the change. In addition, when you know I've come in and we've had a look at the forecast, it was quite evident that some of our interest rates and cash assumptions in H2 were quite optimistic. So we have tweaked those and revised the forecast accordingly, which is why it's now seeing a slightly higher number.

But we're very confident in the number that we've now got, and that's what we think we'll hit for the full year. I think just to add to that as well, we did refinance some very expensive Euro and U.S. debt in May, and we'll see the benefit of some interest cost savings in that versus the current run rate in H2.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Dan Politzer from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Daniel Politzer (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good evening, everyone, and thanks for taking my question. The first one, Peter, maybe you could remind us on some of the parameters through which you evaluate M&A, and, you know, how do you think about U.S. opportunities or maybe balancing these relative to opportunities in Brazil or other jurisdictions? And acknowledging here, your leverage, I believe, is 2.6 times, your target is 2 to 2.5 times. Maybe how high would you be willing to go for the right deal? And then secondly, your flow-through, I believe you mentioned it was about 35% for the back end of this year, ex Illinois. Is that kind of the right ballpark to think about your flow-through on a normalized basis from here? And that's it for me. Thank you.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Thanks, Dan. Look, I'll answer the M&A question, and then, you know, Rob will chat to you about the sort of the flow-through. I think the first thing to remind everyone is, you know, we've done a lot of M&A here in the U.S. and internationally. You know, we recently acquired BeyondPlay, of course, we also bought the, you know, the FanDuel business back in 2018 as well. So we, you know, we will be happy to, you know, to make acquisitions if, you know, in this market if we think it will help us. It's also important to recognize that, you know, internationally, there are many, many markets in, you know, either regulated or soon-to-be-regulated, you know, markets, where we're not yet present with either a podium position or certainly some gold medal position.

We've had a great track record of acquiring businesses in those markets, applying the Flutter Edge, and seeing, you know, big step-up in performance. Sisal is a great example of that. Actually, Tombola is another example of us doing it in market. Our experiences in, you know, in Adjarabet. Yeah, so all around the world, we've got great experiences and, you know, we pride ourselves on making sure that we look at almost everything that gets traded in our space. And if necessary, we will go, you know, beyond our leverage targets to do the right type of deal if we've got confidence in de-leverage quickly. And, you know, that is what you've seen with us recently. We're bringing our leverage down now off the back of the very strong growth in earnings in the U.S.

Daniel Politzer (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah.

Rob Coldrake (CFO)

Well, with regards to the flow-through question, I think a couple of points to mention on this. I mean, A, we are going to see some, you know, difference in flow through by quarter as we move forward, because it can be impacted by a number of factors, including both sports results and seasonality. And also, you know, where we see opportunities to continue investing at the level of paybacks that we talked about, we'll continue to do so because, you know, that's what's driving our superior returns, that's what's driving our market share gains and, you know, our overall kind of virtual firewalls of business. So, you know, we're not holding ourselves or anchoring to a specific number, but, yeah, we are quite confident at this stage that given the momentum that we've got, you know, we will continue to see a decent drop through on the incremental revenues that we're driving.

Daniel Politzer (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks so much.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Paul Ruddy, from Davy. Please go ahead.

Paul Ruddy (Gaming and Leisure Analyst)

Hey, good evening, guys. Just two for me, well, probably both interconnected. Just on the competitive intensity, maybe firstly, maybe in iCasino, when you think about BetMGM, speaking to, you know, increased investment in iCasino, is there anything there you feel you may have to respond to? And the second, similarly, you know, there's in the sports sphere, a couple of operators speaking about refreshed product launch. Could you kinda give us some detail on why you think your product advantage will retain into the new NFL season?

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Evening, Paul. I mean, fairly straightforward, you know, responses for you. You know, I think from a competitive intensity perspective, you know, we've always maintained that, you know, what I would describe as a robust posture, you know, acquiring as much business as we can, whether that's in, you know, the states which just do sports or the states are doing sports and iGaming. Of course, we, you know, we get the benefit of the cross-sell for iGaming, but, you know, we're very pleased with the performance of the first, you know, the first half. We talked about Q2 today, and Rob just referenced, you know, what we're gonna do to think about, you know, continuing to push hard in the second half of the year.

It's not just around investment in, you know, in marketing. We have also been investing a lot in building out our product capabilities. You know, I'm really pleased when I look at the performance of, you know, Parlay in MLB at the moment. You know, historically, it wasn't an area of strength for us, and we've almost got to the same level of penetration as we would do in things like the NFL. So, you know, clearly the, you know, the product advantages we've been having, we've been doing a lot, a lot around of, you know, live betting, and there's a stack load of things that we're gonna deploy to take our product forward, you know, into the new football season that launches at the beginning of September. You know, we've got the best product in the market, we've got the best pricing in the market, and we intend to work very hard to keep, you know, a long way ahead of our competitors.

Paul Ruddy (Gaming and Leisure Analyst)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Joseph Stauff, from SIG. Please go ahead.

Joseph Stauff (Equity Research Analyst)

Hello, Peter, Rob. I had two questions, please, on the U.S. AMP growth in the quarter, 27%. I was wondering if you could disaggregate that for us between OSB and iCasino. And then, two, with respect to the effort to insource a lot of the, say, technical and tech stack capabilities of your U.S. iCasino offering, where are you in that process? The reason I ask is I'm trying to anticipate, say, the gross margin pickup you'd get once that's fully in-house. Thank you.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Hi, Jed. Well, that's a great question because I'm delighted to tell you that we've actually brought our, you know, iGaming product in-house in the U.S. And it's not, you know, it's not a cost play, but it's certainly going to improve, you know, our ability to deploy our own in-house content into the US market, you know, which is not something we've been able to do in the past. It's also gonna help improve things like our, you know, the stability of the platform as well. So, you know, we will definitely drive benefits of it. And, you know, I think there's a lot of exciting initiatives that we can deploy off the back of it. Then, Rob, I don't know whether you want to just talk about the, you know, AMP,

Rob Coldrake (CFO)

Yeah, so in terms of the AMP, we're up 30% on both Sportsbook and iGaming. Yes, there's a small decline on DFS, as you'd expect, given the bit of cannibalization, but you know, we're really happy with the growth rate across the space, Sportsbook and iGaming. And you know, that's very much continuing into the second half of the year.

Joseph Stauff (Equity Research Analyst)

Just to clarify, Peter, so it, it is 100% then, say, insourced at this point in terms of the, the iCasino tech stack, say?

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Yeah. Look, I mean, clearly, you know, the big part of iGaming is working with third-party providers. You know, and we'll continue to work, you know, extensively with partners in that space. But, you know, when I look at all the work that we've done around deploying our own. You know, it's cross-product promotional, you know, engine into iGaming, the stuff that you'll see us doing around that. All the work we've done around the visibility to control. You know, there's, there's a lot of things that we've been able to bring from our experiences around the world and into the U.S. market, and we, and we now sit on our own in-house tech stack.

Joseph Stauff (Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks very much.

Operator (participant)

All right, and as we continue, since we are running low on time, we would like to ask everybody that has a question to limit themselves to one. All right, we will continue with Monique Pollard from Citi. Please go ahead.

Monique Pollard (Senior Equity Analyst)

Oh, hi. Afternoon, everyone. Okay, I'll stick to one then. On the U.S. gross margin, so the gross margin was really good in the quarter, 45.1%. Presumably, if I just think about sort of, you know, how you've been growing in the different states, there's been some scaling, therefore, of the non-tax costs. So I'm just trying to understand what sort of initiatives are being put in place there. And also, when we think about the full year gross profit margin, we talked about 43.5%. Obviously, that was excluding the Illinois tax impact. Is that still the guide, ex the Illinois tax impact, or has that been also increased?

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Hi, Monica. I mean, I think one of the points I, I just, you know, make is to, is to remember the impact of the sports results, which, you know, has quite a, you know, profound impact, particularly when not all of our cost of sales are, you know, you know, are, are such a good amount. You know, 25% of the impact on, on handle. So it, it, you know, that will have a bearing. But Rob, I don't know if there's any more details you want to

Rob Coldrake (CFO)

I think there's probably a couple of points to mention, Monica. I think one is when you look at cost of sales, you know, more broadly here, we now expect it to be roughly 56.8% of revenue, which is, you know, very much in line with the previous guidance of 56.5%. You know, when you look at the composition of our cost of sales, obviously, as Peter said, some of it's driven by sports results, but, you know, there are some other levers that, you know, we can pull in cost of sales, and we will pull over time.

You know, if you look at payment costs, for example, you know, we had an increase in payment costs as a function of our deposits and withdrawal system that we've got set up for our customers, which essentially makes it easier for them to deposit and withdraw. And they, you know, they love that feature. But, you know, it, as a percentage of revenue, the payment costs are about 6% of our overall revenue. So quite a significant cost, but, you know, we've got significant pattern recognition from other markets, you know, across the world, other jurisdictions where we've lent into payment costs and reduced them over time, and we definitely see some opportunities to do that in the U.S.

There's actually a system coming in next year where we think we'll, you know, start to make some inroads to payment costs. You've got other things as well in cost of sales, like GeoComply costs, you know, that we also think that over time we'll be able to address. So yeah, in line with guidance, there's a number of things that, levers that we think we can pull on cost of sales moving forward to stay within the longer-term guidance that we've previously outlined.

Operator (participant)

All right, our next question comes from Robert Fishman from MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead.

Robert Fishman (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Hi, good afternoon. Peter, in your recent write-up on the similarities between Flutter Edge and Fergie's Man U, you discussed the importance of developing and maintaining a distinct competitive advantage. I'm just kinda curious if you can talk about your confidence of maintaining or even growing your number one position in the U.S., and if you want to speak about the success of North Carolina as an example.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Yeah. Look, Rob, Robert, I think it's, you know, I'm pleased you read the article. It, look, I think it is important when you look at the business that we've assembled globally and the way that we've been able to, to do that in a way that empowers each of our local markets. I mean, I think, you know, businesses that try and do things in a sort of central place, you know, can often get bogged down with, you know, trying to coordinate things around product roadmaps and stuff like that. We think it's really important to have local teams delivered, delivering on what's required in the local market.

But what we do through the Flutter Edge is we ensure that, you know, in a small number of areas, we have really good examples of the team supporting each other. I'd call out actually, you know, what we're seeing here in America with our, you know, the strength in our casino business. You know, a lot of the team who are leading that have come from, you know, from around the world and have had, you know, great experience and pattern recognition of having run big casino operations for us elsewhere. We've been able to bring things like our reward mechanic into the market from our, you know, U.K. business, and we've been able to bring technology from other markets as well. So, you know, I think what we've done here in casino is a great example of the Flutter Edge coming to life.

You know, when you look at the Same Game Parlay, so, you know, we're the first to, you know, to bring that to, you know, to Italy, and I mentioned earlier, you know, 20% of our, you know, customers in Italy use that in the Euros. You know, that's another great example of the Flutter Edge in action.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Jed Kelly from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Jed Kelly (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Hey, great. Thanks for taking my question. Just going back to the taxes, and I, I get not implementing the surcharge, but can you talk about, just given your experience in other jurisdictions, how you, Flutter, can, can be proactive in terms of preventing sort of some of the state contagion, especially if some of your win margins continue to go up? Thanks.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Hi, Joe. Well, yeah, I think you've probably sneaked in, in terms of, you know, a slightly different approach to the point I made earlier. We, look, we do operate in, you know, a lot of different markets around the world, and I think it's, you know, when, when you look at, you know, there are plenty of examples we can highlight where, in some places where they've pushed the tax rates up, they've actually seen the tax take decline. So, you know, these are not, you know, not straightforward decisions for these bodies to take, because it may not actually, you know, achieve what they're aiming for. You know, we're all familiar with the Laffer curve. There are optimal points we believe for taxation to be set. You know, look, we try and spend as much time as we can educating and sharing our experiences with state bodies to ensure that they can achieve the best outcome for themselves, you know, and for customers as well.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Joseph Thomas, from HSBC. Please go ahead. You may be on mute if you're trying to talk. All right, we'll move on. Our next question comes from Simon Davies from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Simon Davies (Managing Director)

Yeah, hi, guys. Just one from me. Brazil looks like it's finally set to launch in the new year. Can you just talk a bit about how well you're positioned in that market? And is it one of those markets where you might need to bring in M&A to scale up?

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Hi, Simon. Yeah, look, it's, I can remember talking about Brazil in the, in our preliminary earnings call in 2018. So, you know what I mean, but we're finally getting there, when the regulation is going to pass this time. So we are excited about it. You know, it's a tremendous country. I spent a lot of time there. You know, I think they're all absolutely sort of soccer mad. There's obviously a lot of betting that happens in the market today. You know, I think we're reasonably well-placed with our Betfair brand in that market, and of course, we also operate PokerStars there as well. But, you know, we are ambitious, right? We like to have podium positions. And ideally, we like to have gold medal positions.

You know, we've been able to do that organically in many markets around the world, but we've also, in time, you know, often, resorted to M&A. We think that, you know, when we, when we do that, we're able to apply the, you know, the Flutter Edge and supercharge these businesses. You know, we will work out what we want to do in Brazil, and, you know, when we've made a decision, we'll, we'll let the market know, because, you know, there's nothing to say.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Andrew Tam from Redburn. Please go ahead.

Andrew Tam (Equity Analyst)

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. So at the start of the year, you played pretty well that there was a tack towards leaning into customer acquisition. Are you satisfied with your efforts during the first half? Do you think you could have gone harder or in that regard? And then, just as a follow-on, is there a natural tempering of expectations, given the hit to customer LTVs in, certainly in the Illinois market, given the change there? And does that mean there's a reallocation of spend out of that market into other states? Thanks.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Andrew, we have talked in the past about having looked at historical performance and wishing we'd leaned in and done more. Yeah, and partly that's, you know, because we found that the lifetime values of customers has ended up being greater than we had originally anticipated. I think that, you know, and that's in part because of, you know, better retention. In part, it's been a stronger cross-sell into iGaming. It's also been because of the, you know, expansion of our gross margin due to parlay penetration and things like that. If you look at the performance in Q2, you know, I mean, all of those things continue to be true. And so I think historically, we would always wish we had acquired more business.

You know, I think we did push hard in Q2. We kept it in our guardrails and, you know, I think the team delivered a, you know, great job. We, you know, we continue to refine our, our playbook, and if we think there are, you know, further opportunities to push and we can deliver the great returns, we will.

Operator (participant)

All right, and our final question of the day comes from Robin Farley, from UBS. Please go ahead.

Robin Farley (Managing Director and Leisure Analyst)

Great. Thank you. I wanted to circle back to your, your not having plans to introduce a surcharge. I'm just kind of curious, why you wouldn't see it as an opportunity to recapture, you know, a significant part of tax expense, you know, not only in Illinois, but also New York and Pennsylvania, and maybe even prevent future states that might be following what Illinois did. I mean, if you, as a market leader, it seems fairly low risk if the two market leaders both pass along the cost, then no one's really at a competitive disadvantage. So just kind of curious, why not take that opportunity? Thanks.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Robin, I dealt with that earlier, and I don't have anything further to say.

Operator (participant)

All right, now we will get a question from James Wheatcroft from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

James Wheatcroft (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Hi. Good evening, Peter and Rob. Just a question really around product and development as we go into the next NFL season. I'm particularly thinking about bet in play and how that's going to be incremental to the parlay product, how that will shape over the course of, you know, this following season and into next year, please.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Hi, James. Yeah, I think if, you know, if we look at, you know, Q2, we were really pleased actually with how our investment in live betting helped us. Yeah, I think, you know, we mentioned that we saw the proportion of, you know, customers and, you know, betting in the NBA playoffs, you know, was four times higher than we had done previously. So look, it definitely helps when we, you know, we improve the quality of the product. And, you know, for the NFL, you know, we've got some, you know, great, great initiatives and plans that we plan to, you know, get behind the Same Game Parlay Plus for the season start. So yeah, it is an important product for us.

Operator (participant)

All right, and that does conclude the Q and A. I will now hand it back over to Peter and the team for closing remarks.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Okay, thank you, everybody, for joining the call. It's been fantastic to do it from here in our operational headquarters in New York. I hope all of our U.S. based analysts have appreciated not getting up in the middle of the night, you know, for this evening's sprint. But, you know, we're delighted with the performance in Q2 and look forward to catching up with you all soon.

Operator (participant)

That concludes today's presentation. Have a pleasant day.