Flutter Entertainment - Q4 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Thank you for standing by. My name is JL and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Flutter Entertainment fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star one again. I would now like to turn the conference over to Paul Tymms, Group Director of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Paul Tymms (Group Director of Investor Relations)

Hi, everyone, and welcome to Flutter's Q4 update call. Joining me today are CEO Peter Jackson and CFO Rob Coldrake. After this short intro, Peter will open with a summary of our operational performance in the quarter, and then Rob will update on our Q4 financials and new 2026 guidance. We will then open the lines for Q&A. Some of the information we are providing today constitutes forward-looking statements that involve risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual outcomes or results to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. These factors are detailed in our results materials and our SEC filings. All forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement except as required by law. Also, in our remarks or responses to questions, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures.

Reconciliations are included in the results materials we have released today. I will now hand you over to Peter.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Thank you, Paul. I'm pleased to share our strong fourth quarter results and reflect on our strategic progress in 2025. Flutter Entertainment is the world's leading online sports betting and iGaming company, with unique advantages delivered through the Flutter Edge and a proven track record of delivery. 2025 was another transformative year for the company, marked by our strategic execution, continued market leadership, and disciplined investment, delivering group revenue up 17% and adjusted EBITDA 21% higher. In the U.S., we maintained our clear leadership position in both online sports betting and iGaming. We also launched FanDuel Predicts in Q4 to capitalize on the emerging prediction markets opportunity. In our international business, we strengthened our portfolio with strategic acquisitions in Brazil and Italy, extending our positions in high-growth and exciting markets.

We made significant progress on our transformation and efficiency programs. We are well on track to deliver the anticipated revenue growth and cost efficiencies. Our swift, disciplined responses to regulatory changes in India, where sudden legislative change forced the cessation of real money gaming, and to higher U.K. gaming taxes underscored our scale benefits and business agility. We entered 2026 in a strong position. I've never had more conviction in our ability to capitalize on the long growth runway ahead. Turning to the 4th quarter. Our Q4 group performance was strong, with revenue up 25% and adjusted EBITDA up 27%. In the U.S., revenue growth was 33%, with adjusted EBITDA 90% higher, lapping the significantly unfavorable sports results in the prior year. We delivered another superb iGaming quarter.

Revenue grew 33%, driven by 18% AMPs growth and an increase in player frequency as our successful content strategy and reward scheme resonated well with our customers. FanDuel sportsbook Q4 revenue growth was 35%. Q4 sportsbook trends across the market diverged from expectations. High gross revenue margins were offset by moderating handle performance. As a business, we always consider net revenue as our core revenue KPI. We therefore always consider revenue and handle trends together in conjunction with customer activity levels. This was particularly important this quarter, as adverse recycling was a key driver of the lower handle growth, with persistently high gross revenue margins leading to lower levels of customer engagement. The second half of the NFL season saw less compelling content, with fewer popular teams and favorite players making the playoffs this season adversely impacting customer engagement.

These market trends were far more pronounced for FanDuel for two reasons. First, our significant structural revenue advantage resulted in a greater impact from adverse recycling as FanDuel recorded persistently high NFL gross revenue margins throughout November and December. Overall, we finished the NFL season 100 bits ahead of our expected margin at 19%. Second, our standard Generosity playbook proved less effective in Q4 as our investment phasing did not sufficiently align with the pattern of sports results during this period. As a result, we saw a higher churn within our customer base and a resultant loss of market share. We also don't believe prediction markets are having a meaningful impact on our business. As you'd expect, we've undertaken a comprehensive review and found no evidence of material cannibalization on our existing business.

This finding is reinforced by our Missouri launch, where customer acquisition trends exceeded expectations, reaching 5% of the population within the first 30 days, making Missouri one of our best state launches to date. Moderated market handle trends have continued into the start of 2026. We believe these trends reflect the halo impact of the factors evidenced in Q4, and we continue to monitor trends closely. As set out in our shareholder letter, we have a clear U.S. strategy for 2026. Our market-leading, highly profitable U.S. position is driven by product superiority, enabled by our exceptional pricing capabilities, combined with highly disciplined customer acquisition. This has allowed FanDuel to deliver an estimated 70% share of market EBITDA. However, recent trends have led us to take additional actions to strengthen these capabilities to reinforce our leadership position.

We'll leverage our scale, proprietary technology, and data advantages to deliver experiences competitors cannot easily replicate, including more intuitive bet building, smarter personalization, and richer live engagement. In addition, we're enhancing how customers feel recognized and rewarded with more engaging reward experiences, including the launch of a new loyalty program, extending a core part of our casino success into sport. I'm confident that the ongoing improvements to our sportsbook product and Generosity strategy will harness our scale and structural advantages, driving a sequential improvement in our performance throughout 2026 and deliver market share gains. Let me now update you on prediction markets and how we're going after this opportunity. We believe that prediction markets will accelerate state regulation of online sports betting and iGaming. This, in our view, is the most valuable long-term opportunity in the U.S.

In the meantime, the near to medium-term growth potential from prediction markets for FanDuel is significant. There is new TAM to go after. Prediction markets will enable us to acquire new sports and entertainment first customers into the FanDuel ecosystem ahead of potential regulation. We can deliver attractive returns by providing sports markets to the 40% of the U.S. population who cannot currently access online regulated sportsbooks. We are exceptionally well-positioned to harness this opportunity, and we launched our own offering, FanDuel Predicts, in Q4. Early signals have been encouraging with most activity focused on sports and with average volume per customer in line with expectations. We are also actively pursuing options to leverage our world-class proprietary pricing capabilities for market-making services, and we'll share further details in due course. Rob will update on our predictions market financial guidance.

As outlined in our Q3s, we'll invest meaningfully with ambition to deliver a leading position in this space. The opportunity across prediction markets is certainly far bigger than any potential cannibalization of existing sports. Moving on to our international business. International revenue grew 19% in Q4, and adjusted EBITDA increased 6%. We're making excellent progress on our strategic transformations and integrations, building a strong platform for future revenue growth and delivering cost savings. In the UKI, the Sky Bet sportsbook migration has delivered the expected cost savings, and we are now accelerating customer-facing investment to restore momentum. In SEA, Flutter regained the online market leadership position in Q4. The results of the PokerStars migration in Italy have been very encouraging, with revenue growth of 13% and new customer volumes more than doubling in Q4.

PokerStars migrations will continue at pace into 2026 following the successful precedent we've now created in Italy, driving further growth and delivering planned cost savings. The Snai business integration is progressing well. Customer acquisition initiatives, including Sisal's retail sign-up model and restructured Generosity to boost cross-sell and reactivations, drove all-time record iGaming AMPs and ensured Snai finished the year in revenue growth. The planned platform migration in Q2 will further accelerate this growth by providing Snai access to a vast expanded product suite, including Sisal's leading products such as MyCombo. In Brazil, improved casino and digital marketing capabilities drove a surge in customer acquisition, up 51% since the start of the year. We believe the Brazilian market presents a significant and compelling growth opportunity for Flutter, and that the 2026 FIFA World Cup represents a unique moment in a soccer-obsessed market for us to take market share.

As a result, we expect to invest more. While extending our investment timeline shifts the phasing of profitability, we have strong conviction that disciplined near-term investments will build a larger, more profitable, and sustainable business over the long term. Looking ahead to 2026, I'm confident in our strategic positioning. We have compelling plans in place to strengthen our leadership, unlock future value, and deliver sustainable growth. I'll now hand you over to Rob to take you through the financials.

Rob Coldrake (CFO)

Thanks, Peter. I'm pleased to present another quarter of strong financial delivery. Group revenue increased by 25% and adjusted EBITDA grew 27%, driven by a good year-on-year performance across both segments and the successful integration of our recent acquisitions. As Peter noted, we are making excellent progress on our strategic transformations and integrations, and we are firmly on track to achieve our targeted $300 million cost savings by 2027. We're embedding rigorous cost discipline across the business, identifying new efficiencies and optimizing opportunities to protect margins and fund strategic growth investments.

In the quarter, group net income was $10 million compared to $156 billion in the prior year. As the strong adjusted EBITDA performance was offset by higher interest costs relating to the financing of our strategic M&A and increased tax expense, reflecting the significant step up in U.S. profitability year-over-year. Earnings per share and adjusted earnings per share declined by $0.50 and $1.20 respectively, reflecting these factors. The group's net cash provided by operating activity declined by $224 million to $428 million, primarily reflecting the cash impact of these increased expenses and a $128 million adverse impact from a lower level of customer deposits year-over-year.

Free cash flow declined by $335 million to $138 million, including the impact of M&A and increased investment in capital expenditure. The higher CapEx was driven by phasing of Italian concession payments and investment in future revenue-enhancing and cost efficiency projects, such as our PokerStars transformations. We completed $245 million in share repurchases during Q4, bringing full-year 2025 repurchases to $1 billion in line with our guidance. Our disciplined capital allocation policy provides the flexibility to respond effectively to evolving market conditions and emerging opportunities. We remain committed to our long-term policy of returning capital to shareholders.

We now expect to commence returning $250 million in H1 2026, and we'll provide guidance on our future buyback cadence as the year progresses, preserving our flexibility to invest in the business and strengthen our balance sheet. We ended the year with a leverage ratio of 3.7x. Strong profit growth and cash generation will continue to drive leverage reduction throughout 2026, moving us towards our target ratio of 2x to 2.5x over the medium term. Moving now to our outlook for 2026. In the U.S., we expect revenue of $7.8 billion an adjusted EBITDA of $1.05 billion, translating to year-over-year growth of 12% and 14% respectively. This includes new state investment of $70 million in adjusted EBITDA as we expect to launch Alberta in Q2.

The guidance also reflects current trading, where the impact on our customer base from the very high gross revenue margins achieved in the second half of Q4, alongside a less compelling end to the NFL season, has driven lower customer engagement levels into 2026. Outside of NFL, year-over-year trends improved in February. Although we believe that these market trends are largely transitory, we have taken a measured view of how these trends will progress, including when market handle growth rates will recover from the Q4 recycling impact. We also expect a sequential improvement in FanDuel's relative performance to the market due to improvements to our sportsbook product, Generosity strategy, and the launch of our new loyalty program during the year.

We now expect that our prediction markets investment will be towards the upper end of the previously guided range, closer to $300 million to reflect the significant opportunity we believe exists to drive customer acquisition. While it's still very early days, our view remains that the shape of the profit ramp for prediction markets should be similar to new sportsbook state launches. In international, we expect revenue of $10.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.23 billion revenue at the midpoint, representing year-over-year growth of 13% and 1% respectively. We are really pleased with the underlying momentum in the first two months of the year, particularly in SEA, where we have extended our online market leadership in Italy.

The guidance incorporates an investment in Brazil of approximately $70 million to grow our market position and the previously guided impacts from the U.K. tax increases and the Indian market switch off. We expect our unallocated corporate cost to be $310 million, a $30 million increase compared with the prior year. This reflects an increased 2025 base driven by investment in shared technology, talent, and costs associated with our U.S. listing, which will continue for 2026. To conclude and reiterate Peter's conviction, we are excited for the year ahead and look forward to another year of strong execution. With that, Peter and I are happy to state your questions. I'll hand you back to JL to manage the call.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star one again. If you are called upon to ask a question and are listening via loudspeaker on your device, please pick up your handset and ensure that your phone is not on mute when asking your question. To try to get as many questions as possible, we do request that you try to limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Your first question comes from the line of Jordan Bender of Citizens. Your line is open.

Jordan Bender (Managing Director of Gaming Equity Research)

Everyone, good afternoon or good evening. Peter, I want to start with one of the quotes from the press release where it says it's difficult to be definite as to when market handle growth rates will recover from the impact in 4Q recycling. I guess what I'm trying to figure out here is do you think any of this what's going on could be structural in nature? Do you ever see this type of phenomenon happen across any of your other sports markets globally? I guess the second or the follow-up question to that is, your sportsbook AMPs were up 4% for the year. The story around increasing penetration into existing states is something that you've spoken to in the past. I'm curious where you think you stand in terms of net new customers to support this environment where we are seeing handles slow. Thank you.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Thanks, Jordan. Look, let's start with your question around sort of handle and how that compares with other markets that we operate in. I think it's worth acknowledging that, you know, the period of time we're talking about in the U.S., in Q4 is, you know, in the, you know, the football season. I've talked before about the very high levels of volatility that we see around football in the U.S.. I think, you know, when I think about other markets, you know, the soccer driven markets we see in the U.K., or Italy, you know, racing in Australia, we would see, you know, less volatility and less sustained periods of sort of very positive sports results.

I can remember this time, you know, last year when we were talking about the football season and people were, you know, concerned as to whether we could ever see positive sports results in football. Clearly, you know, this season, we've seen very strong results. As I stated earlier, we've seen, you know, margin of 19% across the full football season. When you compare that with last year and the very substantial step up in margins year-over-year, you would expect to see a commensurate drop in handle, right? It's the math in terms of how it works from the customer play.

That phenomenon of sort of recycling and the impact that margin has on sort of growth of stakes is something that we've seen, we've seen before. In terms of your second question around sort of AMPs. Look, you know, I think the important thing is that, you know, our sportsbook AMPs in, you know, in our pre-2025 states were also growing in Q4. Look, in the combined sports and our gaming business, we saw mid-single digit growth. We're still seeing AMP growth in older cohorts.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. again, in the interest of time, when asking your question, please ask your follow-up as well as your main question at the same time. Your next question comes from the line of Paul Ruddy of Davy. Your line is open.

Paul Ruddy (Head of Client Strategy)

Hi. Good evening, Peter and Rob. Just on, it's a little bit of a follow-up that I forgot to ask, but on the structure and hold piece, it looks exceptionally strong. Has there been any change of strategy around pursuing a more, say, hold positive, handle passive strategy, in the way you've set yourselves up? Maybe if you could just give, if there is any quantification of what you think the actual, amount of handle impact might have been year-over-year from that recycling impact?

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Hi, Paul. I think one of the things I'd state is, you know, when I think about the NFL season this year, you know, when you look at the sort of the quality of the teams that got into the latter stages of the competition, there were a lot less of the sort of, you know, key marquee players, you know, involved. That has a significant impact for us because of our, you know, dependence and on the, on the parlay market. I, you know, I actually, you know, suspect that we saw lower levels of parlay penetration than we would otherwise have done if we'd had sort of match-ups like we'd had, you know, last year. There's, there's nothing, you know, we've not changed our, you know, our vig or anything like that.

You know, we simply saw, you know, a very considerable set of consecutively positive, you know, sports results. You know, I think, you know, 10 out of 11 weeks, we saw, you know, very favorable, you know, weeks of above average margin there. Found a number of weeks above 30%, which we think has a real sort of impact on sort of customer sentiment when you get to those sort of levels. In terms of, you know, the black art of trying to work out, you know, if it were not for that, what would have happened to handle? I mean, it's very difficult and I think, you know, there's a lot of, you know, it's a, you know, complex relationship between those things.

Of course, you've also got the overlay of what's going on from a Generosity perspective as well. Yeah, I think it's hard for us to make a full assessment.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Barry Jonas of Truist Securities. Your line is open.

Barry Jonas (Managing Director and Senior Gaming Equity Analyst)

Hey, guys. Can you maybe talk a little bit about the prediction product today and how you see that improving moving forward? Then maybe as a follow-up, curious to get your thoughts on the probability of more U.S. state tax increases here. Is there any scenario where you might exit OSB in any uneconomically viable state to focus more on FanDuel Predicts? Thank you.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Sorry. Yeah, look, obviously we're pleased we've got our prediction market product into, you know, from a sports perspective, into those 18 states where we can't currently offer our regulated OSB. You know, clearly that's a lot of incremental opportunity for us to go after that otherwise we couldn't have had. Yeah. You know, we have got good plans to improve the breadth and quality of the product we have over the course of this year.

There's obviously the World Cup coming up shortly, which is gonna be a very important opportunity for us to showcase the quality of our soccer product, both for the, you know, the half of America who are in states where there's regulated OSB, where we'll, you know, we're very excited about that. Also, into the half of America who will be reliant on our Predicts product. Soccer is actually, you know, the fourth most popular sport for us by GGR. I think we're excited about that and we, you know, we believe that, you know, we have a lot of expertise in that globally and of course can couple that together with the quality of the FanDuel brand and our experience in the Betfair exchange to really push hard.

There's lots of other product enhancements we intend to make over the course of the year before we get to the start of the NFL.

Rob Coldrake (CFO)

From a tax perspective, Barry, we're clearly at the outset of the year and moving into legislative season. As ever, there'll be some noise and soundings about tax increases in certain states. I mean, on the positive front, actually just before coming on this call, we've had positive news already getting a license in Arkansas, which is a positive move for us. You know, ultimately if we do see any tax increase, there aren't any that we see with high degree of certainty at the moment, but as a scale operator, we're very well placed to mitigate those as we've proven in the past, and we have levers at our disposal and costs that we will use to mitigate that and work through it.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Stantial of Stifel. Your line is open.

Jeff Stantial (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst of Gaming and Leisure)

Hey, good afternoon, Peter, Rob. Thanks for taking our questions. You know, maybe starting off on, on the handle trends in Q4 and year-to-date. You know, Peter, you talked to some market share loss, which is expected to moderate as the year goes on. If you look at performance in the Missouri launch, there really doesn't seem to be much dilution of market share at all. Maybe could you just help us reconcile those two data points? For my follow-up, Rob, it looks like unallocated corporate is pacing well above the 27 targets that you introduced a few years back. Can you just frame for us any what's changed, if anything, and where do you go from here? Thanks.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Jeff, you're right. We've been very pleased with the launch in Missouri. As I stated earlier, you know, it's one of our most successful state launches to date in terms of, you know, the population sort of penetration. I think, you know, we're very pleased with that. You know, I think it's down to our, you know, excellent new state playbook.

I think the, you know, the point I'd make around the sort, you know, some of the handle trends that we saw, you know, in Q4 last year, it really ties back to, you know, some of the stuff I was talking about in terms of the very strong and sustained periods of very high margins, coupled with the fact that we saw, you know, as, you know, less popular teams getting into the playoffs for football. Yeah, I suspect that there were, you know, some of our customers who, you know, to use another sports analogy, put their cues back in the rack, and stopped betting. Look, you know, I think what we'll have to do is reactivate those customers.

You know, we're excited about the product changes that we'll be delivering over the course of this year. You know, I mentioned, you know, the loyalty program, the changes we're making to Generosity. You know, we've got the World Cup coming up. I think there's a lot of great opportunities, March Madness for us to, you know, to push hard and get these customers back on our platform.

Rob Coldrake (CFO)

From a corporate cost perspective, Jeff, there's a couple of points to make. We are slightly above our original guide. There's a couple of contextual points to this. The first is we obviously resegmented the business at the start of 2025, and we saw some additional cost move into corporate as a result of that resegmentation. The second point with regards to 2025 is we actually had some reduced revenue driven cost allocations as part of the year-end closeout, which is just kind of left pocket, right pocket. We have been investing in cost in the center overall with the Flutter Edge, and we're seeing excellent payback in terms of the transformation, strategic transformation work that's going on across the group.

What I'd say lastly is actually we've just kicked off a comprehensive cost optimization program across the group, and we are looking to optimize further efficiencies as we go through 2026.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Brandt Montour of Barclays. Your line is open.

Brandt Montour (Director of Equity Research in Gaming, Lodging, and Leisure)

Hi, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. Digging into U.S. revenue guidance for 2026 low teens growth expectations, you know, I think we kind of got a sense now for, you know, sort of some conservatism around handle. Have you guys changed your philosophy around how you guide for sport outcomes or for structural hold within that guide?

Rob Coldrake (CFO)

I'll pick this up, Brandt. you know, we've not changed our philosophy. What I'd say in summary for 2026 is we've taken a sensible measured approach to our guidance. The guidance includes 12% revenue growth for 2026 and 14% EBITDA growth in the U.S. We're not including any revenue from prediction markets and that as we want to trade through the period initially before we take a view on that. As Peter mentioned, there is quite a complex relationship between handle and gross revenue margin, and that's why we look at revenue as our core KPI, and we guide to revenue only. We also haven't talked about iGaming yet, but we're assuming that the iGaming growth continues in the high teens, and we'll have double-digit sportsbook growth on revenue.

Yeah, overall, as I said, it's a sensible measured approach that we feel comfortable with, and we should also see some sequential improvement through the year as we land some of the products and Generosity initiatives that we talked to in the shareholder letter.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Ed Young of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Ed Young (Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you. My question is around the less effective Generosity playbook. You mentioned phasing, improved competitor offerings, and elevated Generosity in the market. My question is, how should we square your commentary around your new Generosity strategy, which you said you want to be sort of disciplined but also competitive? Is that you saying effectively you need to make your scale count by keeping your Generosity at higher levels? My follow-up is the commentary is also that the improved competitor offerings. What's not worked on the product side to maintain sufficient leadership versus competition? What sort of additional investment are you making or do you think you need to make to make that right?

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Hi, Ed. Look, thank you for the question. On Generosity, look, I think it is a very important sort of topic for us. Yeah, I've talked about some of these, you know, heightened levels of margin that we saw. I think, you know, look, it's fair to say that we didn't execute our Generosity strategy as well as we, you know, should have done. You know, we pushed hard in the beginning of Q4, and actually, when you look at what the pattern of, you know, gross win margins were throughout the back end of Q4, you know, we just saw this very sustained period, including, you know, a number of weeks, as I said earlier, above 30%.

You know, we should have pushed harder at Generosity at those points, and we didn't. That's something that we will address and, you know, make sure that we incorporate into our playbook for the future. Yeah, this isn't about putting, you know, more money on the table. This is about using what we have in a, in a smarter way. I think, you know, tying to that point about being smarter with it, when I look at what we do with our casino business, we get a lot more credit for the, you know, Generosity we give our customers there as a result of the loyalty program that we have. You know, the rewards program has been a really important driver of the success we're seeing in casino.

You know, we must be one of the few consumer businesses in the States that doesn't have a loyalty program to a full stop for sports. It's been very successful for us in casino and as I said, we'll bring those, you know, we'll bring that experience into our sports book, which I think will be very important. That's something that we'll do in Q2 this year. You know, we're gonna remain disciplined. You know, we saw, you know, a very unusual situation after the last couple of years where, you know, we've seen, you know, low margins in football, very high and very sustained periods of margin, and we didn't have the right playbook or tools really to be able to deal with it.

Rob Coldrake (CFO)

Picking up on the second part of your question, Ed, around products. We don't necessarily think this is something that's not worked for us per se, but more a bit of a narrowing of the gap in terms of the product advantage that we've typically held over the last few years. As we think about this, we're looking to, you know, double down on the product advantages that we've had previously, and we're working on a number of things both in the U.S. and in our international business. As we outlined in the release, there's a few specific areas, so we're looking at differentiation and innovation and really enhancing our SGP offering. You'd see actually outside of the U.S. in Italy, our MyCombo product's working extremely well for us, and that's allowed us to take the leadership position back in Italy.

The rewards piece that Peter talked about, also just elevating the cool journeys and the personalization and experience of being on the FanDuel site, which we've got a team working on. The other piece, which we obviously talked about a lot previously, is our outcome-based pricing and how this really provides the structure and the foundations behind our product innovation and improvements moving forward. We still remain incredibly excited about this. You know, it's taking a little while to work through, but fundamentally, we expect this to be a significant product advantage for us when we fully land that and roll that capability out.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Shaun Kelley of Bank of America. Your line is open.

Shaun Kelley (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst of Gaming, Lodging, and Leisure)

Hi, good afternoon, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to follow up on Rob's comment about the double-digit growth you're seeing in sports book, or you're expecting, I guess, embedded in the guidance. Just, Rob, can you help us compare that to, you know, the run rates you're seeing in the business right now? I know current quarter's a little harder to comment on, but the market has been so dynamic, it's been a little hard to track. While we can see handle numbers, it's harder to get that full NGR picture. Any color you could give us there to kinda square what you're seeing in the business with that outlook would be helpful.

Also if you could just comment maybe high level on what you're seeing share-wise for the NBA, 'cause it feels like we've seen that, you know, as a product that Flutter's historically done extremely well in, but we've seen some competition ramp up there. Thanks.

Rob Coldrake (CFO)

Thanks, Shaun. Yeah, in terms of current trading, we started off the year with a continuation of the trends that we observed late in Q4. The closing stages of the NFL season, as Peter alluded to, including the playoffs and the Super Bowl, saw some slightly less compelling player narratives, and that drove continued lower levels of customer engagement into the start of the year. Outside of the NFL, we started to see trends improving month-on-month into February, which is encouraging. We think some of the customer fatigue from the positive sports results persisted into January as well. As Peter said, you know, we had 10 out of 11 positive weeks

Peter Jackson (CEO)

We ended up the NFL season with a 19.3% margin on NFL, which is, you know, incredibly strong for a season overall. In terms of February data, based on the small sample that we have, the week-to-week volume trends are definitely improving, suggesting that, you know, part of this was potentially an NFL season specific dynamic. At this stage, it's still quite early. Visibility remains slightly limited on whether the current market dynamics will be short-lived or what we'll see over the next quarter or few months. We're quite confident about our Q1 guide, and we'll continue to monitor the trends very closely. We're confident that we have the right plans in place to continue improving our U.S. performance over the course of the year.

We've definitely seen a sequential improvement even over the last few weeks. On the, you know, the question around sort of, you know, high level on NBA. Look, you know, this has always been an area, you know, that's important to us. You know, again, it's, you know, it's down to things like the quality of the players we have engaged in the games, you know, with the strength of our parlay offering. You know, there's inevitably a bit of a sort of bleed across between the customers who are betting on both, you know, football and NBA that if they're seeing those, you know, very high margins on football, inevitably will, you know, have some impact on their ability to stake on NBA.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Again, due to time constraints and a large volume of questions, we please ask that you now restrain yourself and please ask one question. Your next question comes from a line of Jed Kelly of Oppenheimer. Your line is open.

Jed Kelly (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Internet)

Hey, great. Thanks for taking my question. Just going back to your prediction markets, do you feel like you potentially would want to acquire your own DCM license just to control your own destiny? Or can you just talk about how your JV with the CME is progressing? Thanks.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Yeah. We spent a lot of time working out how we wanted to, you know, tackle, you know, prediction markets. You know, I think we, you know, we've got our product into the market. We're into those 18 states that we can't, you know, offer our regulated sports betting product in. Look, we're gonna make, you know, a series of product changes over the course of this year. We're very happy with the CME. We've got a strong pipeline of product improvements coming through. You know, I also referenced some of the stuff we're looking at around sort of market making as well. Look, there's a lot going on in this space. We're investing, you know, we plan to invest a lot of money and.

Look, I hope we're sat here in a year's time when we've, you know, been able to invest, you know, very successfully and acquire a lot of customers onto our platform.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from a line of Dan Politzer of JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Dan Politzer (Executive Director of Equity Research in Gaming and Lodging)

Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for the question. I want to go back on prediction markets, unsurprisingly, I guess. I guess, what have you seen that justifies the incremental spend there? 'Cause it sounded like things so far were tracking in line with your expectations. Along those lines, how do you think about the competitive landscape evolving if and when we do get, you know, perfect regulatory clarity here?

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Dan, you know, we've got experience of, you know, investing organically in our business, right? You know what I mean? I think about what we're doing in Brazil at the moment. I think about, you know, all the quarters we had post, you know, PASPA being repealed. We, you know, we've always taken a very disciplined approach, you know, when opportunities arise and, you know, and, you know, we will make sure that we, you know, acquire as much business as we can. You know, clearly the, you know, the phasing of our marketing will align with our sort of product roadmap and scale over the course of, you know, this year. You know, this quarter is more about sort of test and learn to understand how we optimize our spend and drive conversion.

We expect to invest, you know, heavily in the second half of the year. You know, look, given the opportunity we see, you know, we expect to be towards the top end of the figures. Look, I, you know, I reserve the right to spend more if we find opportunities are bigger, you know.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from a line of Bernie McTernan of Needham & Company. Your line is open.

Stefanos Crist (Internet Equity Research Associate)

Hi, this is Stefanos Crist calling in for Bernie. Just wanted to follow up on Arkansas. We understand there's a 51% revenue share. Just wanted to ask why launch now and maybe why not do predicts instead of the traditional, sportsbook? Thank you.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Look, I'm happy to pick it up. I think, you know, what we've seen in Missouri with our new state playbook, I think, is a really good example of when you're giving customers or consumers the choice, the breadth of offering that you have in a, in a traditional OSB, together with the Generosity playbook you can provide means it's a much more compelling offering. Look, we're super excited. That's what our sort of, you know, true north is for us in the business. You know, we'd like to see more states passing regulation for OSB and indeed iGaming. You know, look, it's a, so those two areas, you know, we'd love to see more state pass. You know, there are only two national players in the state. You know, look, we're excited to get our playbook going and see what we can do in the state.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from a line of Ben Shelley of UBS. Your line is open.

Ben Shelley (Director of European Leisure, Media, and Internet Equity Research)

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Do you expect U.S. online sports betting market share to stay but stabilize in 2026? More broadly, what's giving you confidence in sequential improvement in your competitive position through the year? Thank you.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Yeah, we are, you know, confident in the quality of the products that we have in the market. We're excited about the introduction of our loyalty program. There is more work we're doing around Generosity. As Rob, you know, mentioned on the, you know, the question earlier, there are enhancements that we're making to our product as well. I'm, you know, very confident in, you know, in our ability to, you know, execute. We have consistently done that. I think that we will be able to, you know, hold our market share. You know, look, I'd like us to take more market share, to the extent that we can get good returns on it, and we will spend that money.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from a line of Clark Lampen of BTIG. Your line is open.

Clark Lampen (Managing Director of Digital Gaming)

Thanks very much. My questions are related to the sportsbook loyalty program. I think, Peter, number one, just for clarification, I think you said that that was gonna roll out in Q2. Wanted to make sure that they had that correct. Second, I wanted to see if you could give us a little bit of color around when you introduced this same offering for your iGaming business, what the immediate impact was. Was it a revenue driver? Did it help you with promo? I think that that's, you know, there's clearly been a bunch of questions on the call thus far around the direction of promo. Maybe with that as a reference point, was it helpful to promo? Was that, you know, a source of leverage, I guess, for iGaming when you introduced that? Any color that you could provide or reference point, would be helpful. Thank you.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Clark, I mean, the perspective, you know, from our casino business where our rewards program has been a really important part of the success of that business. You know, we got to a record market share in Q4 with 28%. We're still building our loyalty, you know, the rewards program, right? There's still changes we're making. We're still integrating more of the Generosity into the program. You know, we've been, you know, we've been at it a long time in the casino business, and there's still a way to go. You know, it's a little bit like our parlay products. You know, we're never done. There's always improvements and changes we can make. Look, you know, we will launch a loyalty program for our sportsbook.

I think, you know, one of the immediate benefits that we've seen in Casino is that you get much better sort of, you know, saliency from your customers around the, you know, around the rewards that you're giving them. I expect to see that happen in our, in our sportsbook. You know, I mean, there's, you know, we sometimes describe it as link and labeling. You know, I think that's the, that's the immediate, you know, step change we'd expect to see. I hope it will help drive increases in wallet share.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Ian Moore of Bernstein. Your line is open.

Ian Moore (Equity Research Analyst of U.S. Entertainment)

Thanks for taking my question. One on capital allocation. How would you rank, I guess, the different inputs you're weighing in deciding at what point you become more active on share purchases through the year? I guess any update you're willing to give on progress toward resolution of the Fox option. Thank you.

Rob Coldrake (CFO)

Maybe I'll start on the capital allocation question, Ian. As I mentioned in my prepared comments that the capital allocation framework remains consistent with what we outlined at our Investor Day in 2024, and we remain committed to the long-term policy of returning capital to our shareholders. As we often say, we are an and company, so we'll ensure our capital allocation decisions are balanced by the opportunities to invest for growth, but also to optimize for leverage over time. Our current approach really, you know, provides us with the flexibility to respond effectively to evolving market conditions and emerging opportunities. In 2026, we'll prioritize significant capital deployment across both the organic investment in our core business, which has historically yielded the highest returns, by the way, and strategic investment in the newly emerging prediction markets opportunity.

There's a lot to go after. We continue to, you know, generate a lot of cash in this business, and we can and will delever quickly. There's lots of interesting and exciting allocation opportunities ahead of us through 2026, which we want to get behind.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

There's nothing to say in on the Fox option at this stage.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Robert Fishman of MoffettNathanson. Your line is open.

Robert Fishman (Senior Research Analyst)

Hi, good afternoon. Any more color you can provide, I think you said high teens growth that you're expecting for the U.S. iGaming, in 2026? Just how sustainable do you think that is as we think about the years ahead? Thank you.

Rob Coldrake (CFO)

Well, if you think about, Robert, the iGaming market in 2025, it grew around 26%, and our revenue growth was 33%. I think as the states mature, we'd expect some moderation of that growth. We feel confident it's gonna continue to be mid to high teens. You know, we do expect continued strong growth and we're excited about the product roadmap that we've got in iGaming. There's definitely still a long way to go on the penetration rates in iGaming. If you look at what we set out, I think it's 9.5% at the Investor Day. We're about 6.5%, I think, as we stand today. Lots to still go after there. You know, we're incredibly pleased, as I said earlier, with our iGaming performance.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Joe Stauff of Susquehanna. Your line is open.

Joe Stauff (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you. Hello, Peter, Rob. Sorry about it, but I wanted to ask a little bit more just on Generosity investments and those returns for FanDuel. It certainly makes sense, right? In iGaming, you get a higher return, you know, you get more betting events. That makes sense. Do you get a return? That seems to me to be a unique customer, meaning that customer doesn't necessarily cross-promote into OSB. Your Generosity investments in OSB, at least for that, does cross-promote. Is that maybe part, I guess, of, you know, what we're trying to figure out and what happened essentially in the third and fourth quarter with respect to, like, your approach? Because obviously you're gunning on the iGaming and it's worked. I was just wondering if that's a realistic understanding of kind of how you're allocating that capital and why the returns are lower?

Peter Jackson (CEO)

I think there's two things going on, just make sure I, and I understand your question. You know, I think, you know, effectively, we did not employ, you know, deploy our Generosity efficiently in Q4. You know, I mean, particularly when you think about the very long sequence of very high margins, particularly some of those real peak weeks. You know, we were not, you know, efficient and effective. We should have been deploying more Generosity at those points there. I think, you know, separately, you know, we have had lots of success with deploying our, you know, loyalty or rewards program into casino. You know, in all of our businesses, you know, we deploy a lot of Generosity to customers.

One of the advantages of bundling up that Generosity, you know, within a loyalty program is consumers understand better what's been going on. I actually think one of the issues for us in Q4 was there was a bit of a whipsaw way. You know, Generosity was on, it was off, it was on, it was off. You know, particularly at a time when, you know, margins were running very hot, I think we were probably causing a bit of confusion amongst our customers and, you know, we're just not deploying it effectively. Yeah, that's what we're gonna address, get to a, you know, more efficient and effective distribution of Generosity. I think, you know, yeah, that's very important.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from line of Chad Beynon of Macquarie Group. Your line is open.

Chad Beynon (Managing Director and Senior Gaming, Lodging, and Theatre Equity Analyst)

Afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. With respect to the upcoming U.K. iGaming impact, has anything changed just in the current landscape in terms of how your competitors are maybe running, you know, running their business, promos, marketing, et cetera? Could this potentially adjust how you're thinking about mitigation? Thank you.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Hi, Chad. Well, we obviously laid out our top-level plans for mitigation when the changes were introduced in Q4 last year. To this point, we're not seeing anything different to what we'd anticipated in terms of activity. It's actually early days because the tax changes don't actually hit until April. What we expect will happen is that people will start to moderate behavior from that point onwards. If you think about the market share of iGaming in the U.K., there's a very long tail. There's circa 30% of the market shares in the long tail with, you know, much inferior economics to us, given our scale. Actually we fully anticipate that there'll be some changes in marketing and Generosity in return to player dynamics as we move through the year.

We were reasonably conservative in terms of our view, in terms of what we recapture versus the tax increase, and we still remain confident in that.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from line of John DeCree of CBRE. Your line is open.

John DeCree (Managing Director and Senior Analyst of Gaming, Lodging, and Leisure)

Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Peter, I wanted to circle back to a comment made in prepared remarks of your sentiment that we share as well, and that is, prediction markets should accelerate OSB and iGaming regulation in the States. I'm curious if you could, you know, share any more color on that view and your perspective. You know, you probably have as good of a view or better than anyone, what kind of inputs help you feel confident or that that might come to fruition?

Peter Jackson (CEO)

John, we have, you know, I think we're singing to the choir if you're in agreement with me. You know, I think we do believe that the, you know, the noise around prediction markets, look, and it is an opportunity for us to acquire customers in advance of the States regulating. We do think it will help hasten, you know, the regulation of, you know, of iGaming and online sports betting. You know, we've got an extensive team who are focused on this, and we're having some very fruitful conversations at the moment. You know, look, we've just had some good news in Arkansas. You know, who knows where else the, you know, the next shoe to drop will be. Now, I'm excited to see some iGaming states come along at some point soon.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from line of Monique Pollard of Citi. Your line is open.

Monique Pollard (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Hi. Hello, everyone. Afternoon and evening. Thank you for taking my question. Apologies if I missed it, but I couldn't see anywhere if you could help clarify how much you spent on FanDuel Predicts in the fourth quarter. Just conscious that you know, it was only a handful of states during Q4 before the wider launch in January. Basically, the follow-up question to that is me just trying to understand how much of you know, the guidance change in the FanDuel Predicts for 2026 to the upper end is just a timing shift versus how much is it that you've seen something in the Predicts customers you've acquired so far that makes you think it's worth pushing more aggressively on that opportunity in 2026. Thank you.

Rob Coldrake (CFO)

Yeah. Hi, Monique. It's Rob here. We didn't actually confirm a number in the release, so you didn't miss anything. It is actually lower than the $45 million that we guided at Q3, so ended up spending slightly less than that in the quarter. I think Peter outlined earlier on very well what our intentions are for 2026. You know, we've now said that we're going to be towards the top end of the range. What I would say is that within that, you know, we retain our right to have flexibility on that spend.

It's a very fast-moving category, and our investment will ultimately be driven by the types of returns that we see that, you know, ultimately both of us would be delighted to be sitting here at the end of the year saying that we've actually invested at the top end or beyond that envelope because that will mean that we're really achieving traction in the, in the prediction market space.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Sigdahl of Craig-Hallum. Your line is open.

Ryan Sigdahl (Partner and Senior Research Analyst)

Hey, good day, Peter. I hear you're on the NFL playoffs. I know we're all sad the Vikings didn't make it. My question is, given the more pronounced moderation in customer activity and the unfavorable recycling in the U.S., I guess especially relative to your peers, curious how the company, how you plan to maintain your structurally higher hold while also retaining share of players' wallets?

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Hi, Ryan. I think we've discussed, you know, some of these factors already. The key issue that we saw in Q4 wasn't that we had over the course of this football season the 19% margin. That was great. You look at where the gross margin was for Q4, and we said we're in line with what we anticipated doing for 2027. The issue really was how we deployed our Generosity. That's something that we are addressing and talked about that. We've got to make sure that our Generosity strategy reflects what we're seeing in the market.

Those, you know, 10 out of 11 weeks with very high and sustained margins and then a number of weeks at 30%, you know, those, you know, they really impacted our business. Yeah, that, you know, the relationship around what we're doing with Generosity, with where margins are, the sort of hangover impact you get for a couple of weeks after those very high margins is something we were to make sure that we address. Personalized Generosity is the way to deal with that because, of course, you know, even when we're talking about very high margins, there's still averages and there's customers who've done well and customers who've done badly within that. You know, I think, you know, that's what the team have got a lot of experience of doing in Australia.

We're learning from that and deploying it into the U.S. business. You know, this isn't so much a matter of the issue of the high margins, it's more how we make sure that we spend Generosity effectively, customers understand what's happening, and we don't have the sort of, you know, the situation where we're a bit inconsistent, and that is not helpful for customers particularly, for these consecutive high margins.

Operator (participant)

Your last question comes from the line of Richard Stuber of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Richard Stuber (Director and Equity Analyst of Travel and Leisure)

Hi there. Good evening. Just for me, a question on the credit cards. I did read somewhere that you would now stop taking credit card deposits. I was wondering, have these credit card deposits been largely offset by the same customers using alternative payment methods, or have, those credit card customers broadly left and is that the similar thing which your competitors are doing in terms of credit cards? Thank you.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Yeah.

Rob Coldrake (CFO)

Yeah. Hi, Richard. This is something that we, you know about, been anticipating for, and also something that we've navigated in a number of our markets around the world. We're actually anticipating a de minimis impact from this. It comes in at the start of March. It's within our plans. We're not expecting it to have a material impact.

Peter Jackson (CEO)

Okay. I think we are done with the questions. Thank you very much, everybody, for dialing. Much appreciated.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.