Fidelity National Financial - Q4 2022

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, greetings, and welcome to the Fidelity National Financial, Inc. fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call. At this time, all participant lines are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce you to your host, Lisa Foxworthy-Parker, investor relations. Please go ahead.

Lisa Foxworthy-Parker (Senior VP of Investor and External Relations)

Great. Thanks, operator, welcome everyone. Joining me today are Mike Nolan, Chief Executive Officer, and Tony Park, Chief Financial Officer. We look forward to addressing your questions following our prepared remarks. Chris Blunt, F&G's Chief Executive Officer, and Wendy Young, F&G's Chief Financial Officer, will join us for the Q&A portion of today's call. Today's earnings call may include forward-looking statements and projections under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act, which do not guarantee future events or performance. We do not undertake any duty to revise or update such statements to reflect new information, subsequent events, or changes in strategy. Please refer to our most recent quarterly and annual reports and other SEC filings for a discussion of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied.

This morning's discussion also includes non-GAAP financial measures that we believe may be meaningful to investors. Non-GAAP measures have been reconciled to GAAP where required in accordance with SEC rules within our earnings materials available on the company's website. Yesterday, we issued a press release which is also available on our website. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for webcast replay at fnf.com. It will also be available through telephone replay beginning today at 3 P.M. Eastern time through March 2nd, 2023. Now I'll turn the call over to our CEO, Mike Nolan.

Mike Nolan (CEO)

Thank you, Lisa, and good morning. Overall, we have delivered strong performance for the quarter and full year while navigating a challenging landscape. During the quarter, we completed a dividend distribution of 15% ownership of F&G to FNF shareholders, and F&G held its first quarterly earnings call as a publicly traded company earlier this morning. F&G continues to deliver on its diversified growth strategy and reported record sales for the year and record assets under management of nearly $44 billion at year-end. Looking forward, F&G has reached an inflection point where its strong capitalization supports both organic growth and the distribution of a portion of their earnings to shareholders in the form of common dividends, which FNF will benefit from as F&G's largest shareholder. Tony will provide more details on F&G's performance and its impact on FNF's consolidated results.

Our title business has continued to perform well despite the falloff in mortgage originations due to increasing mortgage rates and housing market headwinds. Volumes in 2022 were considerably less than the record-setting 2021 levels, mainly due to the precipitous increase in mortgage rates in recent months. We responded with disciplined cost actions as opened orders began to decrease and delivered adjusted pre-tax earnings in our title segment of $1.6 billion and an industry-leading adjusted pre-tax title margin of 16.7% for the full year. We are proud of this result as this is our third-best pre-tax title margin since 2003, despite the steep decline in mortgage volumes.

Looking at fourth quarter volumes more closely, our total commercial orders opened were 724 per day, down 29% from the fourth quarter of 2021, and for January were 736 per day, lower by 30% versus the prior year. Next, daily purchase orders opened were down 31% from the fourth quarter of 2021 and down 29% for the month of January versus the prior year. Refinance orders open per day were down 76% from the fourth quarter of 2021 and down 72% for the month of January versus the prior year. Overall, total orders opened averaged 4,300 per day in the fourth quarter, with October at 4,800, November at 4,300, and December at 3,700.

For the month of January, total orders opened were 4,700 per day, up 27% over December. Notably, purchase orders open per day in January increased by 33% over December, and refinance orders open per day increased 17%. Total revenue, excluding recognized gains and losses, was $1.8 billion, a 42% decrease compared with the fourth quarter of 2021. Commercial revenue proved resilient at $344 million, our second-best fourth quarter, only trailing our record-setting fourth quarter of 2021. For the year, commercial revenue was $1.54 billion, an all-time high. Adjusted pre-tax title earnings were $227 million and adjusted pre-tax title margin was 12.3% in the fourth quarter.

While the volatile market environment challenged all industry participants, our management team is experienced in operating through varying economic cycles and has a proven track record of reacting quickly to adjust to order volumes. For the full year of 2022, net of acquisitions, we have reduced title headcount by approximately 26% and will continue to manage the business based on market conditions. At the same time, we continue to look for opportunities to strengthen our business through acquisitions and recruiting industry talent. Our industry leading position and strong balance sheet puts us in an advantageous position to not only withstand periods of dislocation, but take advantage of opportunities to strategically build and expand our title business for the long term.

Over the past year, we have invested over $200 million in 11 acquisitions, and we completed the previously announced acquisition of TitlePoint in January 2023 for $225 million as we expand our footprint into attractive markets and enhanced our title capabilities. We have also continued to invest in our inHere experience platform that enhances the transaction experience of agents, transaction coordinators, and consumers. Adoption of the inHere platform has been strong this year, with real estate agents and transaction coordinators registered for the platform growing to approximately 135,000 in the fourth quarter, an increase of 220% over the fourth quarter of 2021. We believe this growth demonstrates the value customers are receiving from the inHere platform and creates both market growth and efficiency opportunities over the near and long term.

Finally, we have confidence in F&G following its partial spin-off and public listing. F&G's spread-based income delivers a steady and growing source of earnings, which is countercyclical to our title business as F&G benefits from the rising rate environment. Since the merger of over two years ago, F&G has far exceeded our original expectation for growth and contributed approximately $1.1 billion of adjusted net earnings over the last 10 quarters on a cumulative basis. By retaining our majority interest in F&G following the dividend distribution, we will continue to benefit from F&G's growth while also receiving approximately 85% of F&G's cash dividends.

F&G's board of directors has approved initiation of a dividend program at an initial aggregate amount of approximately $100 million per year commencing in 2023. FNF will receive approximately 85% of F&G's quarterly cash dividend in proportion to our majority ownership. This provides a competitive advantage for our company. We remain committed to F&G's long-term success. Wrapping up, I would also like to thank our employees for their hard work and commitment over the last year. We could not have delivered our industry-leading performance without their incredible effort. Let me now turn the call over to Tony Park to review FNF's fourth quarter financial highlights.

Tony Park (CFO)

Thank you, Mike. Before I turn to our consolidated results, as Mike mentioned, on December 1st, FNF completed the distribution on a pro rata basis of approximately 15% of the common stock of F NGto FNF shareholders. The purpose of the distribution is to highlight the substantial equity value of FNG that has been and will continue to be created and allow investors to invest directly in FNG. For reporting purposes, since FNF retains control of FNG through its approximate 85% equity ownership stake, we continue to consolidate the assets, liabilities, and results of operations of FNG in FNF's consolidated financial statement. The portion of equity interest of FNG that FNF does not own for the period of December 1st to December 31st is reflected as non-controlling interest in FNF's consolidated financial statements. Now, turning to our consolidated results.

We generated $2.6 billion in total revenue in the fourth quarter. Fourth quarter net earnings were $68 million, including net recognized losses of $118 million versus net earnings of $533 million including $213 million of net recognized gains in the fourth quarter of 2021. The net recognized gains and losses in each period are primarily due to mark-to-market accounting treatment of equity and preferred stock securities, whether the securities were disposed of in the quarter or continued to be held in our investment portfolio. Excluding net recognized gains and losses, our total revenue was $2.7 billion as compared with $4.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Adjusted net earnings from continuing operations was $287 million or $1.06 per diluted share. Compared with $668 million or $2.34 per share for the fourth quarter of 2021. The Title segment contributed $180 million. The F&G segment contributed $131 million, and the Corporate segment had an adjusted net loss of $24 million. For the full year 2022, we saw strong performance for the Title segment despite a difficult environment, as well as strong growth for the F&G segment, which together generated solid profitability.

Total revenue excluding gains and losses was $13 billion in full year 2022 despite the decline in Title order volumes, and reflects a 15% decrease from the record set in full year 2021. This generated $1.5 billion in adjusted net earnings, a decrease of 40% from $2.5 billion in full year 2021. The Title segment contributed $1.2 billion. The F&G segment contributed $338 million, and the Corporate segment had an adjusted net loss of $83 million. Turning to Q4 financial highlights specific to the Title segment.

Our Title segment generated $1.8 billion in total revenue in the fourth quarter, excluding net recognized gains of $20 million, compared with $3.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021. Direct premiums decreased by 47% versus the fourth quarter of 2021. Agency premiums decreased by 48%, and escrow title related and other fees decreased by 36% versus the prior year. Personnel costs decreased by 24% and other operating expenses decreased by 24%. All in, the Title business generated a 12.3% adjusted pre-tax Title margin for the quarter versus the record 22.4% in the prior year quarter. Adjusted pre-tax Title margin decreased to 16.7% for the full year, compared with 21.7% in full year 2021.

Our Title and corporate investment portfolio totaled $5.3 billion at December 31st. Interest in investment income in the Title and corporate segments of $100 million increased $74 million as compared with the prior-year quarter, primarily due to increases in income from our 1031 exchange business and short term investments. Given the rising rate environment, we would anticipate the potential for higher investment income through reinvestment of our short three-year duration portfolio maturities. Looking to 2023, we expect quarterly interest and investment income to moderate in the $75 million-$80 million range, with declining 1031 exchange balances and spreads, and potentially declining cash and short term investment balances. Our Title claims paid of $79 million were $22 million higher than our provision of $57 million for the fourth quarter.

The carried reserve for title claim losses is approximately $90 million or 5.2% above the actuary's central estimate. We continue to provide for title claims at 4.5% of total title premiums. Next, turning to Q4 financial highlights specific to the F&G segment. F&G hosted its earnings call earlier this morning and provided a thorough update, so I will focus on the key highlights of its quarterly performance. Total gross sales were $2.7 billion in the fourth quarter, an increase of 23% over the fourth quarter 2021. This reflects record retail sales, partially offset by lower institutional sales, which are expected to be lumpier and more opportunistic than in the retail channels.

Net retained sales were $1.9 billion for the fourth quarter, a de-decrease of 7% from the fourth quarter of 2021, reflecting the increase in flow reinsurance to Aspida Re effective September 1st. Ending assets under management were $43.6 billion as of December 31st, 2022. Adjusted net earnings for the F&G segment were $131 million for the fourth quarter, compared with $142 million for the fourth quarter of 2021. F&G's adjusted net earnings reflect volatility from the alternatives investment portfolio, short-term mark-to-market movement that differ from long-term expectation.

As Mike mentioned, F&G continues to generate consistent economics over time, and FNF will continue to benefit from the F&G segment's growth and counter-cyclical performance to the Title business, as well as receiving cash dividends as the largest shareholder of F&G, which we anticipate will grow with earnings. Let me wrap up with a few thoughts on capital and liquidity. We remain focused on ensuring a balanced capital allocation strategy as we navigate the current environment. This encompasses making investments in Title technology and other strategic initiatives to support innovation and organic growth in the businessContinuing to evaluate sensible strategic M&A opportunities in real estate-related businesses, title agencies and technology acquisitions. Paying a generous quarterly dividend to our shareholders and repurchasing shares. We ended the quarter with $939 million in cash and short-term liquid investments at the holding company level.

Importantly, this balance does not reflect FNF's acquisition of the TitlePoint line of business from Black Knight for $225 million, which funded on January 1st, 2023 from a combination of $150 million of operating cash and $75 million of holding company cash. FNF's consolidated debt was $3.2 billion on December 31, up approximately $550 million from the preceding quarter due to F&G's draw on its new third-party senior unsecured revolving credit facility that closed in November. As a result, our debt-to-capitalization ratio, excluding AOCI, was 26.8% as of December 31st. As planned, F&G also successfully completed their first debt issuance as a public company on January 13th, 2023, issuing $500 million of senior unsecured notes due in 2028.

F&G intends to use the net proceeds from the re-revolver draw and senior notes to support growth of the business and for future liquidity needs. On a pro forma basis, including F&G's new notes and a $35 million partial pay down on its revolver in January 2023, FNF's debt-to-capitalization ratio, excluding AOCI, is estimated at approximately 29.5%. This is in line with our long-term target range of 20%-30%, we expect that our balance sheet will naturally de-lever as a result of growth in shareholders' equity excluding AOCI. Going forward, our consolidated annual interest expense on debt outstanding is approximately $175 million, comprised of approximately $80 million for FNF's holdco debt and $95 million for F&G debt outstanding at this time.

During the fourth quarter, we paid common dividends of $0.45 per share for a total of $124 million. We view our current annual common dividend of approximately $500 million as sustainable. The dividend is reviewed quarterly and expected to increase over time, subject to cash flows, alternative uses of capital, and market conditions. FNF continues to return excess cash to shareholders over time through share repurchases and, subject to blackout periods, has remained active throughout the fourth quarter and into the first quarter. During the fourth quarter, we repurchased 1 million shares for a total of $38 million at an average price of $37.87 per share. We also closed on two title acquisitions in the fourth quarter and TitlePoint in early January and will continue to evaluate M&A opportunities as we navigate the current business environment.

For the fourth quarter, we have returned approximately $162 million of capital to our shareholders through common dividends and share repurchases. For the full year, we have returned over $1 billion through common dividends and share repurchases. This concludes our prepared remarks. Let me now turn the call back to our operator for questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while we poll for questions. Our first question comes from the line of Bose George from KBW. Please go ahead.

Bose George (Managing Director)

Hey, guys. Good morning. Actually, could I get an update on just margins by segment? Just curious if the trend in the margin was kind of reflected across all segments or just, you know, just how that trended.

Tony Park (CFO)

Sure, Bose. This is Tony. Yeah, I'll highlight some of the margins by segment as we've done in the past. Just looking at the fourth quarter of 2022 up against the fourth quarter of 2021. Keep in mind that the fourth quarter of 2021 was our best quarter ever. Our direct operations generated a 21% pretax margin up against over 30% in the prior year quarter. Agency was 6% up against 10% in the prior year quarter. Some of that Agency margin in the prior year quarter was driven by a centralized business we have that generates tremendous margins on refinance business. Obviously, we've all seen what's happened to refinance orders over the course of 2022, that's why Agency is down as much as it is.

National commercial operations held up, at 31%. Last year, with that record fourth quarter, they were at almost 43%. ServiceLink, which has a combination of centralized refinance, but also some default businesses and loan subservicing and others, was roughly 10% in the quarter versus about 25% in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Bose George (Managing Director)

Okay, great. Thanks a lot for that detail. Actually on in terms of the non-controlling interest, can you just remind us, apart from the F&G piece, you know, what else flows through that line item?

Tony Park (CFO)

Yeah, not a lot. To be honest, we own 100% of most of our investments. In the title segment, you'll find some joint venture type businesses that we have in certain markets, but they don't really move the needle a whole lot. Then the F&G piece will show up. We only have a month's worth in there, and I don't even think. I think it's probably going to show up in the corporate segment. You'll see, I don't think there's much or anything there. You really won't see it until we make our way into 2023. That's going to be 15% of the net earnings of F&G going forward.

Bose George (Managing Director)

Okay, perfect. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mark DeVries from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Mark DeVries (Director)

Thank you. I was hoping to get some color on what we should expect on buybacks in 2023. You had a pretty big step down in the pace in Q4. Was that kind of subject to maybe extended blackouts around the F&G distribution? Should we expect the cadence to go back to, you know, closer to the $150 million a quarter that you had in 2022 prior to the fourth quarter?

Tony Park (CFO)

Yeah, Mark, this is Tony. You're right about the step back in Q4. We were blacked out for most of the quarter with the pendency of the F&G spin, so we weren't very active during the quarter until after the December first spin. In terms of going forward, it's hard for me to speak for the board. We typically don't preannounce, you know, where we're headed in terms of buyback activity. I can say, and I think, we management and the board would agree, we think our shares are undervalued and certainly F&G, with the mark that we've set in terms of that spin-off, we don't think... First of all, we think that's light, and there might be reasons for that, including a limited float.

We also don't believe, FNF share price got any benefit from that at this point. We do think that our shares are attractive at these prices. You know, we weigh the capital allocation on all fronts. You know, we've got our dividend, M&A, internal investment, and of course, buybacks. The board, I mean, we returned over $1 billion last year in terms of dividends and buybacks, and I think buybacks were more than half of that, probably $550 million or so. I think we'll just see how the business environment plays out over the course of the year. I'm sure that we, you know, we will be in the market during the year.

Mark DeVries (Director)

Okay, that's helpful. Just a question on expenses. Is there more to do here on headcount? You know, alternatively, was there action that you took kind of later in the fourth quarter that's not yet flowed through the results that we should expect to see, you know, in Q1?

Tony Park (CFO)

Sure, Mark, it's Mike. I would say, you know, there's always more to do in a market that's declining. Yes, some of the work done in the fourth quarter probably doesn't fully show up in the fourth quarter. I mean, we took out 12% of our headcount in the fourth quarter net of acquisitions, which is a pretty sizable number. I think some of that will flow through to the next quarter. We're probably reduced. We'll reduce in the first quarter about another 3%. I think, you know, further actions will really be order dependent. You know, as we've always done, Mark, and you know this, we'll kind of follow those orders. We've done some work on our infrastructure as well relative to branch locations.

I wouldn't say anything significant, but we've had some movement there. Part of what we have to evaluate is, you know, as quickly as this market turned down, with some help from rates, I think it could as quickly turn up. You don't want to do too much in the short term that can kind of hurt you in the midterm or long term. We're certainly going to continue to manage the cost. We're really very pleased with the work we did really in the course of the year to finish with a, you know, full year margin at 16.7%, which is, you know, really close to the midpoint of our 15%-20% normalized margin that we talk about.

A lot of good work done, but certainly there could be more to do.

Mark DeVries (Director)

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Kligerman from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Andrew Kligerman (Managing Director)

Great. Thank you. Just kind of following up on the prior question about expenses, and looking at the numbers, it looks like you did a lot with other operating expenses sequentially from $437 to $392. Your title margin was about 12.3%, so, you know, very low relative to that 16+ that you cite for the year. Does it look like, you know, that number is kind of stabilizing in the 12%-13% zone? You know, maybe you do some stuff around the edges. You know, you mentioned a potential 3% reduction in staff in the first quarter, but maybe that title margin is kind of stabilizing in the low double digits. Does that make sense?

Mike Nolan (CEO)

Well, I think it would depend on the context. Are you talking about a full year comparison or a quarterly comparison?

Andrew Kligerman (Managing Director)

Whatever makes more sense. I mean, if you think, you know, next year, you know, where do you think the title margin will level out in 2023, assuming the same?

Mike Nolan (CEO)

Yeah

Andrew Kligerman (Managing Director)

kind of environment now?

Mike Nolan (CEO)

Yeah, I think it would be helpful in responding to that. You know, as we think about 2022, as you pointed out, the full year at 16.7 are really 3rd best in almost 20 years. You know, at 12.3 in the Q4, we kinda had, you know, declination in that regard. As you look at the year, it was really a tale of two halves, if you will. You know, if you think about the NAR existing home sale numbers, in January of 2022, their annualized number was over 6 million existing home sales. Which if we had had that, would have been one of the best existing home sale markets in the last 20 years.

By the fourth quarter of the same year, that number was down closer to 4 million, which if annualized would be one of the worst home sale markets in the last 20 years. That happened in the same year. I think that volatility, you know, definitely makes it more challenging as you kinda manage your margins in a downward environment. We had, you know, by the time we got to the fourth quarter of 2022, we had one of the weakest refinance markets since 2000.

When you think about the environment that we ended up in the fourth quarter with, very low refinance activity and very soft, existing home sale activity, it doesn't create a lot of inventory for the industry as we go into the first quarter. I think that inventory issue, you know, also was an impact on the industry in the fourth quarter, but it's really gonna show up in the first quarter. Margins will definitely be pressured and lower than we've seen in the last few years, particularly in Q1. Then we'll just have to see how they progress over the course of the year. I mean, I think we'll get some help from commercial.

It doesn't look like it'll be as strong as in 2022, but I think we still have a solid commercial market. I would say that we're very confident that as the market returns, that will drive margins in a positive direction, particularly because of our current cost structure. Also encouraged by the increase in purchase orders that we saw in January being up 33% sequentially to December, is certainly encouraging. I think it really points to the underlying demand and really tailwinds around housing, particularly, you know, if we get an environment where rates are easing and maybe prices moderate a little bit. I wouldn't be surprised at all with some help from rates that we see a rebound in those annualized existing home sales numbers.

You know, that could move really quickly, I think, maybe similar to how it fell off. I'll pause there.

Andrew Kligerman (Managing Director)

No, that was very helpful. You know, I guess I feel like I have to, you know, take a negative, you know, very skeptical view of the environment. You know, if the environment stays as is, probably Fidelity, Mike, you wouldn't wanna cut too much more on other op expenses and staff, right? Because as you were saying earlier, you know, things could go the other way very quickly. Should I not expect too much of a cut in either staff or other operating expenses?

Mike Nolan (CEO)

Well, I think I'll start with staff. I think, as I said earlier, it really will be order dependent. If orders continue to fall and we see pressure from rates, then we'll have to do more work on the staffing side and look at our infrastructure more deeply. But you also do that with the caveat, with an eye towards this could turn around and you don't wanna, you don't wanna hurt yourself in the midterm, by doing something in the short term that's just not helpful in the mid and long term. We're still very bullish long term, even The reductions we've done and the cost moves we've made, we're continuing to recruit talented people into the industry, particularly revenue attached people.

We continue to make acquisitions, we're going to continue to do that in 23. You know, we're not shying away from the market and again, are optimistic kind of the mid- and long-term prospects for the industry. We'll just have to see what the current environment does for us in the next, you know, few months. Andrew, this is Tony. Maybe I'll just weigh in on the actual line items as a refresher. Probably a third of our personnel costs are variable with revenue and with profits, and so some of that just falls off naturally with movements, declines in revenue. On the other operating side of things, that line item, probably about 40% of those costs are variable with volume. You know, that would be things like, you know, premium taxes and the like.

You know, we clearly have fixed costs in both. Mike's referring to fixed costs when we're talking about headcount reductions. On the other operating side of things, it's more like facilities are fairly fixed in the short run. Technology costs are fairly fixed in the short run, insurance, that sort of thing.

Mark Hughes (Analyst)

Very, very helpful. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Campbell from Stephens Inc. Please go ahead.

John Campbell (Managing Director)

Hey, guys. Good morning.

Mike Nolan (CEO)

Hey, John. Hey, John.

John Campbell (Managing Director)

Hey. Thanks for the January order count updates. That was helpful. It sounds like the trends, you know, rebounded a little bit sequentially, beyond what we've seen historically, I guess on historical average. From where we sit, it does look like February might reverse some of that momentum with the pickup in rates. I'm hoping you guys might be able to provide some color on that. If you've got it on hand, it'd be great to get the month to date February order count trends in resi and commercial.

Mike Nolan (CEO)

Yeah. Maybe to the first part, the 33% increase on purchase orders sequentially, might be a little better than historical numbers, but I don't think it's off that much. I certainly was pleased to see it, you know, to have that kind of a rebound. We generally don't give out partial month order counts, John, so, you know, we got kind of a partial month in February just because, it could potentially mislead one way or the other if trends change as the month goes on. I think that particularly show up in commercial order counts. I would just say that as we've gone through the month, the trends haven't caused any concerns.

you know, when you look at, you look at mortgage rates, you know, they've certainly moved up in the past three weeks. you know, we still have to see how that may impact, you know, current trends, you know, for, purchase and, even commercial activity.

John Campbell (Managing Director)

Okay. That's helpful. Then, Mike, just from your experience, how much of a lead time do you typically see, between mortgage rate movements and then the eventual closings?

Mike Nolan (CEO)

Yeah, it's a, it's a great question. You know, I would have probably answered it differently in the past than in this environment. You know, I don't think we've ever seen, and you guys would know better than me, but we've ever seen rates move this fast in such a short period of time. I mean, in the fourth quarter of 2021, I think average rates were like a three and a quarter, and by the fourth quarter of 2022, they were maybe six and three quarters or something like that. When they're moving that rapidly, it definitely impacted purchase orders very, very quickly. You know, we normally see the... And then the closings follow 45 days later.

In a more normalized environment with more gradual rate increases in that kind of environment, your purchase orders hold up way better. You don't see a dramatic fall off if rates are moving up sort of incrementally. Refi will shut off fairly quickly, you know, with a 50, 75 or 100 basis point change in rates. But in this environment, those purchase orders got choked fast. I think just pointing out that annualized EHS number, I mean, it's kind of remarkable, you know, going from 6 million to 4 million in one year. Again, those closings are, you know, 45 days after those fall off and purchase opens.

John Campbell (Managing Director)

Makes sense. Yeah, I mean, just the degree of the volatility, I mean, I know it makes it. You guys historically have been able to manage costs, you know, the best of the bunch, but I feel like with the uncertainty, it does create some a little bit of, I guess, lag time on the expense recognition and whatnot. I want to touch on F&G real fast. Obviously, you guys got pushback when you originally announced that deal. The pushback's kind of been steady since then. I think this quarter showed why you did it in the first place. I mean, the year-ago period, it looks like F&G, by my math, was, I think, it was about 20% of total title and F&G earnings combined. It looks like that contribution doubled up this period.

I think it was 43% of earnings. Just roughly for this year, I know a lot can change around the title side, but do you envision that F&G might rise to over half of total earnings this year?

Mike Nolan (CEO)

Yeah. John, this is Tony. Yeah, it's hard to know 'cause we'd have to know the other side. I think F&G earnings are a lot more predictable, which is also a reason why we made that acquisition. You know, they talk about... Chris and Wendy are on the phone as well, but they talk about a 1% return on assets, and assets are growing at almost $44 billion, I think, at year-end. You know, it's pretty easy to do the math. As that piece increases, you know, we feel very good about their contribution to the whole in 2023. As you know, just trying to model the title business, it's gonna be order dependent, and we don't know where that heads.

I guess the good news is, it's kind of playing out like, in a tough market. We just saw a tough market in Q4. You can see that it's a counterbalance and a growth story against something that's just more cyclical in the short term on the real estate side. We were happy with that. I don't know, I don't know if we get much credit for it right now. We're pleased with the balance.

Operator (participant)

Yep, makes sense. Thank you, guys.

Mike Nolan (CEO)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one. Our next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes from Truist. Please go ahead. Mark, your line is unmuted. You could please unmute yourself from your end and begin with your question.

Mark Hughes (Analyst)

Thank you. I was on mute. Sorry about that. The national commercial fee profile was down. You had a very tough comp. How do you see that trending in 2023, or at least early on here?

Mike Nolan (CEO)

Yeah, Mark, it's Mike. Of course, the comp was very difficult. It, you know, at $17,000 I think it was in the fourth quarter of 2021. I would think the national fee profile will stay relatively the same. I mean, it could fall off some. It tends to be a little bit of a lumpier number because it can be influenced by, you know, big deals that drop in and out. For the full year, our national commercial fee profile is right around $14,000, and in 2021 it was, let's call it $13,500. You know, my best guess at this point is it's in a band between those two numbers.

Mark Hughes (Analyst)

Okay, good. Thank you. Then, any update on the attorney opinion letters?

Mike Nolan (CEO)

You know, I wouldn't say a major update. You know, I don't think we've seen much impact in our order volumes due to it. You know, there's some promotion around that that it lowers costs for consumers. I don't, I don't know that it does that. I haven't seen anybody that's shown that. I think it could actually raise costs for people. It's a bit of an unknown. What we do know about it's a lesser product compared to the coverage and defense costs afforded under title policies, and doesn't cover hidden risks, doesn't cover fraud and forgery, doesn't cover mistakes in the public records, you know, doesn't defend insureds like a title policy does.

I think there's a lot of questions about the product, and it's not regulated like the title industry is regulated. We have to post claims reserves. We're heavily regulated at the state level, and ALs aren't. Again, just haven't seen much of an impact to date.

Mark Hughes (Analyst)

Appreciate that. Thank you.

Mike Nolan (CEO)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mike Nolan for closing comments.

Mike Nolan (CEO)

Thank you. We are pleased with our overall results despite the uncertainty and volatility in the current macro environment. FNF is well-positioned to execute through this higher mortgage rate environment due to our disciplined operating strategy and long history of navigating market cycles. Likewise, F&G is poised to benefit from the rising rate environment and is off to a strong start as a publicly traded company. Thanks for your time this morning. We appreciate your interest in FNF and look forward to updating you on our first quarter earnings call.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. The conference of Fidelity National Financial, Inc. has now concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.