Sign in
FF

FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP (FOXF)·Q3 2026 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2026 primary-source documents (8‑K Item 2.02 press release and earnings call transcript) were not available via our tools; forward context is anchored on S&P Global consensus while trend analysis references Q2–Q3 2025 actuals. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • In Q3 2025, FOXF missed Street expectations: revenue $376.4M vs $382.6M consensus and adjusted EPS $0.23 vs $0.55 consensus; macro softness and inventory tightening in Specialty Sports Group (SSG) were key drivers .
  • Management cut FY25 guidance (adjusted EPS to $0.92–$1.12, net sales to $1.445–$1.475B) and telegraphed “phase two” optimization in FY26, including capex tapering “sub‑1% of revenue” .
  • S&P Global consensus for Q3 2026 implies modest top-line growth and margin normalization: revenue ~$392.9M*, EPS ~$0.51*, EBITDA ~$53.1M* vs Q3 2025 actual revenue $376.4M, EPS $0.23, EBITDA $40.8M [functions.GetEstimates]* .
  • Near-term stock reaction catalysts remain guidance re‑sets, SSG inventory actions, tariff headwinds, and execution on optimization/free cash flow; note the Q3 2025 print drove a negative move in shares and sentiment .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Aftermarket Applications Group (AAG) and Powered Vehicles Group (PVG) delivered double-digit YoY growth in Q3 2025, partially offsetting SSG softness: AAG $117.8M (+17.4% YoY), PVG $125.9M (+15.1% YoY) .
    • Gross margin improved 50 bps YoY to 30.4% in Q3 2025 despite macro headwinds .
    • Management highlighted cost reduction and optimization groundwork and signaled FY26 capex discipline: “When you think about CapEx in 2026… think about something kind of sub‑one” (percent of revenue) .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Q3 2025 missed Street on revenue and EPS; adjusted EPS $0.23 vs $0.55 consensus, revenue $376.4M vs $382.6M consensus, reflecting SSG inventory lean‑downs and tariff impacts .
    • Guidance cut: FY25 adjusted EPS lowered to $0.92–$1.12 (from $1.60–$2.00 prior), FY25 net sales $1.445–$1.475B (from $1.45–$1.51B), reflecting SSG weakness and macro decision-cycle elongation .
    • Earnings call context flagged near-term macro constraints and need for working capital reductions; Q3 2025 GAAP net loss ($0.6M) and lower adjusted EPS highlight profitability pressure .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2025Q3 2025Q3 2026 (Consensus)
Revenue ($USD Millions)$374.9 $376.355 $392.853* [functions.GetEstimates]
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.07 $(0.02) N/A
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.40 $0.23 $0.5125* [functions.GetEstimates]
Gross Margin (%)31.2% 30.4% N/A
EBITDA ($USD Millions)49.3 40.843 53.145* [functions.GetEstimates]

S&P Global disclaimer: Asterisked values are S&P Global consensus and may differ from company-reported non‑GAAP measures. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Actual vs Consensus (Q3 2025):

MetricActualStreet ConsensusSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)$376.355 $382.592* [functions.GetEstimates]-$6.237M (miss)*
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.23 $0.54571* [functions.GetEstimates]-$0.316 (miss)*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$40.843 $54.955* [functions.GetEstimates]-$14.112M (miss)*

Segment Breakdown (Q3 2025):

SegmentNet Sales ($USD Millions)YoY Change
Aftermarket Applications Group (AAG)$117.77+17.4%
Powered Vehicles Group (PVG)$125.87+15.1%
Specialty Sports Group (SSG)$132.72-11.2%

KPIs and Balance Sheet (Q3 2025):

KPIQ3 2025
Cash and Equivalents ($USD Millions)$65.372
Revolver Outstanding ($USD Millions)$151.000
Term Loans (LT portion) ($USD Millions)$512.365
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$44.4
Gross Margin (%)30.4%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net SalesQ4 2025N/A$340M–$370M New range
Adjusted EPSQ4 2025N/A$0.05–$0.25 New range
Net SalesFY 2025$1.45B–$1.51B $1.445B–$1.475B Lowered
Adjusted EPSFY 2025$1.60–$2.00 $0.92–$1.12 Lowered
Adjusted Tax RateFY 2025N/A15%–18% New range

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2025)Previous Mentions (Q3 2025)Current Period (Q3 2026)Trend
Tariffs/MacroEPS miss with gross margin down to 31.2%; macro volatility noted Macro decision cycles elongated; inventory lean‑downs impacted SSG No primary-source call availableN/A
Supply ChainOperational constraints highlighted; execution focus Analyst Q&A on supplier fire impacts No primary-source call availableN/A
Product PerformanceRevenue beat, diversified products; momentum in aftermarket AAG/PVG strength; Live Valve introduced No primary-source call availableN/A
Optimization/FCFRaised FY25 sales; operational discipline “Phase two” optimization in FY26; working capital actions; capex “sub‑1%” No primary-source call availableN/A

Management Commentary

  • “The macroeconomic environment is setting up to be increasingly challenging… decision‑making cycles… are creating headwinds for our businesses.” (Q3 2025 press release) .
  • “When you think about CapEx in 2026… think about something kind of sub‑one [percent of revenue]… hope is not a plan.” (Q3 2025 earnings call – CEO) .
  • “We delivered net sales growth of 5% and improved adjusted EBITDA by 6%… However, SSG underperformed expectations as OEMs, distributors and retail partners actively managed toward leaner inventories.” (CEO) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Analysts probed supply chain disruptions (e.g., aluminum supplier fire) and near-term sales impact; management emphasized profitability focus over top-line in 2026 .
  • Clarifications around FY26 investment cadence: prior capex (≈3% of revenue) step‑down to “sub‑1%” with optimization initiatives, driving FCF and leverage reduction .
  • Segment trajectory: AAG premium products gaining; SSG subject to inventory management ahead of year‑end .

Estimates Context

  • For Q3 2026, S&P Global consensus points to revenue ~$392.9M*, EPS ~$0.51*, EBITDA ~$53.1M*, suggesting incremental recovery vs Q3 2025 actuals. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Q4 2025 consensus: revenue ~$353.9M*, EPS ~$0.16* vs company guidance ranges, highlighting potential estimate recalibration post Q3 2025 [functions.GetEstimates]*.
MetricQ3 2025 ActualQ3 2026 Consensus
Revenue ($USD Millions)$376.355 $392.853* [functions.GetEstimates]
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.23 $0.5125* [functions.GetEstimates]
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$40.843 $53.145* [functions.GetEstimates]

S&P Global disclaimer: Asterisked values are S&P Global consensus and may differ from company-reported non‑GAAP measures. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Expectation reset: FY25 guidance cut and Q3 2025 miss elevate the bar for FY26 optimization delivery; watch for capex “sub‑1%” execution and working capital release to improve FCF and deleveraging .
  • Mix shift remains constructive: AAG/PVG momentum offsets SSG weakness; premium positioning in aftermarket should support pricing and margins into recovery .
  • Monitor SSG inventory normalization and tariff pass‑throughs; both were central to Q3 2025 underperformance and could drive estimate revisions .
  • Near-term trading setup: sensitivity to guidance granularity and FY26 targets; Q3 2025 drove negative stock reaction—updates on optimization/FCF likely to be key catalysts .
  • Consensus for Q3 2026 implies stabilization; a delivery beat on cost actions could re‑rate EBITDA trajectory. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Balance sheet watch: cash $65.4M, revolver $151M, term loans $512.4M; sustained FCF improvement is important to de‑risk leverage .
  • Primary-source Q3 2026 documents were not accessible via our tools; we will update upon availability to refine narrative and estimate comparisons (8‑K 2.02, call transcript).