FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP (FOXF)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q4 FY2025 source documents (8‑K 2.02 press release and earnings call transcript) were not available in the document corpus; management’s latest update cut Q4 guidance to net sales of $340–$370M and adjusted EPS of $0.05–$0.25, citing SSG inventory tightening and a supplier fire impacting PVG/AAG volumes .
• FY2025 guidance was lowered to net sales of $1.445–$1.475B and adjusted EPS of $0.92–$1.12 (from $1.45–$1.51B and $1.60–$2.00 in Aug), reflecting higher unmitigated tariff pressure and softer SSG channel demand into year‑end .
• Q3 trends heading into Q4: PVG +15% y/y and AAG +17% y/y while SSG underperformed; adjusted EBITDA margin was 11.8% with gross margin 30.4%; adj. EPS $0.23 vs GAAP loss $0.02 .
• Key stock reaction catalysts: reduced Q4/FY guide, tariff headwinds affirmed at ~$50M pre‑mitigation, and the aluminum supplier fire’s production impact; 2026 optimization “phase two” details expected on the Q4 call .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • PVG delivered strong growth (+15% y/y) with continued wins in motorcycles and premium auto OE; management highlighted deeper OEM integration and new launches (e.g., Live Valve aftermarket) .
  • AAG +17% y/y driven by aftermarket components and an OEM performance truck program; early units sold out with backlog building into 2026 .
  • Cost discipline: $25M cost reduction program “on track”; credit agreement extended to 2030, enhancing flexibility .
  • Quote: “Our third quarter results reflect overall improvement year‑over‑year, in a challenging environment… we strengthened our balance sheet, reducing debt by $17 million and extending our credit agreement through 2030.”

• What Went Wrong

  • SSG underperformed versus expectations as OEMs, distributors and retail partners actively managed to leaner inventories ahead of year‑end, pressuring Q4 outlook .
  • Supply disruption: a fire at a major aluminum supplier constrained PVG automotive and AAG chassis volumes through Q4 (likely Q1 too) .
  • Tariffs: pre‑mitigated FY2025 impact increased from ~$38M (May) to ~$50M; ~50% mitigation identified but remaining headwind weighed on FY EPS guidance .

Financial Results

Note: Q4 FY2025 actuals not available; table shows actual Q4 FY2024 and Q2/Q3 FY2025, plus Q4 FY2025 guidance.

Segment Net Sales ($M)

Additional KPIs

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• Strategic focus: “We remain focused on executing what we can control—operational excellence, product innovation, and strengthening our balance sheet…” .
• 2026 playbook: “We’re preparing to take action on the second phase of our optimization strategy… simplifying our business and focusing on our core products… and driving increased near-term free cash flow.” .
• Product/customer wins: “We firmly entered the street performance sector… launched our advanced software‑controlled Live Valve Suspension for the aftermarket… the most advanced technology available in the off‑road aftermarket from any company.” .
• Tariff mitigation: “We have identified countermeasures to offset 50% of these impacts and believe we can absorb this unmitigated component in our updated guidance for full-year 2025.” .

Q&A Highlights

• Tariffs by segment: FY25 pre‑mitigated tariff impact now ~$50M split roughly AAG ~$10M, Marucci ~$15M, PVG ~$25M; mitigation underway via supply chain optimization and pricing .
• Powersports outlook: Stabilizing; improvement likely needs rate relief; motorcycle expansion more than offsetting side‑by‑side declines .
• Aluminum supplier fire: Significant Q4 headwind across PVG auto and AAG chassis; resolution expected by mid‑Q1 .
• Marucci trajectory: Expected up y/y in 2025 with new product launches and category expansion (e.g., softball, footwear) .
• Bike: Order moderation in H2 seen as healthy inventory discipline; sets stable baseline into 2026 .

Estimates Context

• S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 FY2025 EPS/Revenue were not retrievable due to access limits at query time; therefore, estimate comparisons are unavailable. Given the reduced Q4 and FY guidance, street models will need to align to the new ranges .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Near‑term reset: Q4 guide of $340–$370M revenue and $0.05–$0.25 adjusted EPS reflects SSG channel tightening and supplier fire impacts; FY guide cut embeds tariff headwinds at ~$50M pre‑mitigation .
• Mix of strengths/weaknesses: PVG (+15% y/y) and AAG (+17% y/y) momentum offsets SSG softness, but external constraints temper Q4/Q1 volumes .
• Margin/FCF focus: $25M cost actions on track, “phase two” optimization in 2026 to prioritize margin recovery and deleveraging .
• Innovation pipeline intact: Aftermarket Live Valve and OEM performance truck program broaden content and TAM; motorcycle wins sustain PVG growth .
• Watch items into Q4 call: cadence of supplier recovery, tariff mitigation progress, SSG order patterns post‑holiday, and specificity of 2026 targets (margins, capex, FCF) .

Data availability note: Q4 FY2025 8‑K 2.02 press release and the Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript were not available in the document set as of this analysis; Q4 commentary reflects the company’s Q3 press release and call guidance for Q4/FY2025. All figures and quotes are sourced from cited company filings and transcripts.