JL
JFrog Ltd (FROG)·Q2 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 delivered solid top-line and profitability: revenue $103.0M (+22% YoY), non-GAAP operating margin 13.2%, non-GAAP EPS $0.15; cloud revenue $39.3M (+42% YoY) reaching 38% of total .
- Guidance reset: Q3 revenue $105–$106M; FY24 revenue $422–$424M, non-GAAP EPS $0.54–$0.56; FY cloud growth now “around 40%” vs prior mid‑40s, and FY net dollar retention expected “mid-teens” vs high‑teens previously due to slower migrations and rigid procurement .
- Strategic momentum: deep GitHub integration and Qwak AI acquisition position JFrog as unified DevOps, Security and MLOps platform; Enterprise+ mix rose to 50% of revenue (+500 bps YoY) and $1M+ ARR customers reached 42 (+75% YoY) .
- Cash and execution: RPO $272.0M; OCF $16.7M; FCF $16.0M; cash and investments $591.3M as of 6/30/24, supporting continued investment in security/AI while maintaining discipline .
- Likely stock reaction catalysts: guidance cut (cloud growth and FY revenue/OP), delayed security monetization to 2025, vs. strategic positives (GitHub, Qwak) and durable platform adoption signal .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Platform adoption and enterprise mix expanded: Enterprise+ subscriptions rose to 50% of revenue (+500 bps YoY); $1M+ ARR customers reached 42 (+75% YoY), reflecting successful outbound enterprise motion .
- Cloud growth remained strong despite headwinds: $39.3M cloud revenue (+42% YoY), now 38% of total; management cited migrations’ uplift (20–80%) when they occur and strong multi-cloud demand .
- Strategic partnerships and AI expansion: announced deep integration with Microsoft GitHub; acquired Qwak AI to unify DevOps, Security and MLOps; customers (e.g., AT&T, Admiral) validate value proposition and security differentiators .
Quote: “With the innovative power of our Qwak AI acquisition, JFrog proudly stands as the first to support DevOps, Security, and MLOps in a single platform.” — CEO Shlomi Ben Haim .
What Went Wrong
- Guidance reduction and momentum moderation: FY24 revenue cut to $422–$424M (from $425.5–$429.5M) and cloud growth tempered to ~40% amid delayed migrations, monthly usage softness, and rigid procurement .
- Security revenue timing pushed out: material revenue contribution from Advanced Security and Curation now anticipated in 2025 due to higher TCV deals requiring longer PoCs/procurement cycles .
- Monthly cloud subscribers weighed on growth: management quantified a 2–3 pt drag from monthly, non‑commitment cloud customers; fewer Q4 true‑ups expected versus 2023, reducing a potential tailwind .
Financial Results
Core Financials vs Prior Periods
Notes: YoY revenue growth: Q4 +27% , Q1 +26% , Q2 +22% .
Segment Mix and KPIs
Results vs Estimates
S&P Global consensus estimates were unavailable at time of writing due to data access constraints. Values would normally be retrieved from S&P Global.
Guidance Changes
Management commentary: reduction driven by delayed migrations, softer monthly cloud consumption, and procurement rigidity; material security revenue now expected in 2025 .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Strategic platform vision: “We are on a mission to revolutionize the software industry with a unified platform that encompasses EveryOps… first to support DevOps, Security, and MLOps in a single platform.” — CEO .
- Enterprise momentum with higher ASPs: outbound enterprise motion increased ASPs; retention 97% highlights durability .
- Cloud dynamics: “Monthly subscribers… around 2 to 3 percentage points” headwind; migration uplift 20–80% when they occur .
- Guidance rationale: derisked pipeline given macro change, rigid purchasing environment; FY cloud growth reset to ~40%; fewer Q4 true‑ups vs 2023 .
- GitHub integration impact: customer‑driven unified experience, security and AI collaboration expected to be a differentiator, with next phase unveiled at swampUP .
Q&A Highlights
- Macro shift timing: demand deteriorated in final days of Q2 and markedly in July; large strategic deals pushed out, prompting guidance reset .
- Cloud growth composition: 2–3 pts impact from monthly subscribers lacking commitments; derisked migrations and expansion on renewals in H2 .
- True‑ups: moving customers to monthly “use it or lose it” implies fewer Q4 true‑ups versus 2023; not contemplated in guidance .
- Security monetization: higher TCV consolidations extend PoCs/procurement; material revenue now anticipated in 2025 despite strong pipeline and GitHub tie‑ins .
- Competitive posture: management sees macro/procurement, not competitive displacement; 97% retention and GitHub partnership bolster confidence .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus estimates for Q2 2024 revenue and EPS, and for Q3/FY24 were unavailable due to data access limitations at time of drafting; consequently, we cannot quantify beat/miss versus Wall Street consensus. Results were within the company’s prior guidance ranges .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- FY24 guide reset reflects pragmatism: revenue, operating income, and EPS lowered; cloud growth moderated to ~40% and NDR to mid‑teens, driven by delayed migrations and rigid procurement—expect continued scrutiny on H2 execution .
- Durable enterprise adoption: Enterprise+ mix at 50% and $1M+ ARR customers up 75% YoY signal platform consolidation tailwinds that should support medium‑term growth .
- Security and AI are strategic but back‑end weighted: pipeline strong, but monetization pushed to 2025; watch swampUP updates on GitHub Advanced Security and Qwak integration as potential narrative catalysts .
- Cash/FCF provide flexibility: $591.3M cash/investments and positive FCF enable continued investment in security/MLOps while maintaining operating discipline .
- Near‑term trading: sentiment likely hinges on migration re‑acceleration evidence and monthly cloud usage stabilization; absence of Q4 true‑ups vs 2023 reduces year‑end optionality .
- Medium‑term thesis: unified DevOps/Security/MLOps platform with deep GitHub ecosystem positioning, strong enterprise retention/mix, and expanding AI use cases support durable growth once procurement cycles normalize .
- Monitoring items: cloud mix/margins trajectory (toward low‑80s over time), Enterprise+ mix, security attach rates, and RPO growth as forward indicators .
Other Relevant Q2 Press Releases
- Qwak AI acquisition: definitive agreement announced June 25 to expand JFrog into unified DevOps, Security, and MLOps; integration underway, with technology and talent assimilation roadmap .
- Board appointment: Unity CFO Luis Visoso joined the Board (Audit Committee), adding cloud/security leadership experience and financial acumen .