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    JFrog (FROG)

    Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Feb 12, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$34.05Last close (Aug 7, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$25.19Open (Aug 8, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-8.86(-26.02%)

    What went well

    • Despite macroeconomic challenges, JFrog projects around 40% year-over-year cloud revenue growth, reflecting strong demand for its cloud solutions and the robustness of its business model. , ,
    • JFrog maintains confidence in its long-term growth strategy, focusing on the three pillars of full platform adoption, cloud migration, and security solutions, which positions the company well for future growth once market conditions improve.
    • With a 97% gross retention rate, JFrog demonstrates strong customer loyalty and satisfaction, indicating a solid foundation for continued expansion and reducing the risk of customer churn.

    What went wrong

    • Slowing Cloud Revenue Growth and Postponed Migrations: JFrog reduced its cloud revenue growth guidance from mid-40% to around 40% for 2024 due to customers postponing migrations during Q2 and a slowdown in cloud consumption among monthly subscribers with no commitments. This indicates potential challenges in cloud adoption, which could impact overall revenue growth.
    • Longer Sales Cycles and Delayed Strategic Deals: The company observed a push out of large strategic deals in the last few days of the quarter, indicating changes in the purchasing environment with longer sales cycles and budget constraints. This could hinder JFrog's ability to close deals promptly and affect near-term revenues.
    • Lower Net Dollar Retention and Slower Customer Expansion: Due to a stricter budget environment and longer sales cycles, JFrog anticipates slower growth in customer expansion and now expects its net dollar retention rate to be in the mid-teens instead of the high-teens. This suggests potential challenges in upselling and cross-selling to existing customers, which could affect future revenue growth.

    Q&A Summary

    1. Cloud Revenue Guidance
      Q: Why did you lower cloud growth guidance?
      A: We observed significant deal pushouts in the final days of the quarter due to a challenging macroeconomic environment, leading us to derisk our forecast. We're now projecting around 40% year-over-year cloud growth, down from mid-40s, factoring in delays in migrations and a decline in monthly customers who don't have commitments.

    2. Deal Delays and Sales Cycles
      Q: Are deal delays widespread or in specific segments?
      A: The delays are broad-based across geographies, customer profiles, industries, and sectors. It's more about budget constraints and rigid procurement processes than any specific demand issue. Higher Total Contract Value (TCV) deals are taking longer due to longer proof of concept and procurement processes.

    3. GitHub Partnership Impact
      Q: How will the GitHub partnership affect growth?
      A: The partnership brings together JFrog and GitHub's strengths in binaries and source code. It offers enhanced security consolidation and integrates with GitHub Copilot, appealing to customers seeking platform consolidation. We are excited about the high potential this collaboration offers for future growth.

    4. Advanced Security Product Delays
      Q: Why is advanced security adoption delayed?
      A: Customers are considering consolidating point solutions into our platform, leading to higher TCV deals that require longer proof of concept and procurement processes. While this delays adoption, it represents higher potential for us, and we are being conservative in our projections.

    5. Confidence in Long-term Growth
      Q: How does guidance cut affect long-term targets?
      A: Despite reducing our annual guidance by 1%, we remain confident in our long-term model driven by full platform adoption, cloud migration, and security. We haven't included potential tailwinds from AI and MLOps yet, and we believe we can still achieve our top-line growth targets.

    6. Qwak Acquisition Integration
      Q: How will the Qwak acquisition impact expenses and margins?
      A: We are integrating Qwak and absorbing associated expenses while maintaining our focus on profitability. The integration aligns with our long-term model, and we expect to balance operational efficiency with ongoing investment without significant impact on margins.

    7. Competitive Landscape Concerns
      Q: Are there competitive or execution issues?
      A: We are confident there's no competitive or execution issue. Our 97% ARR retention rate suggests customers aren't leaving for competitors. The delays are due to macroeconomic factors, not competition, and our pipeline doesn't indicate customers switching to other solutions.

    8. Monitoring Customer Behavior
      Q: How do you monitor customer migration plans?
      A: We closely examine our pipeline at different stages, particularly post-technology win and before budget discussions. This detailed analysis helps us gauge customer commitment and led us to derisk big projects based on macroeconomic changes.

    9. Impact of Moving to Monthly Plans
      Q: How does moving customers to monthly plans affect true-ups?
      A: As we shift customers from annual to monthly use-it-or-lose-it plans, we expect fewer true-ups over time. We don't anticipate the same level of true-ups in Q4 2024 as we had in 2023 and haven't included any such benefit in our guidance.

    10. Industry Consolidation and GitLab
      Q: Any thoughts on industry consolidation with GitLab?
      A: We don't see much competition from GitLab in our pipeline, and our partnership with GitHub aligns us with customer preferences for consolidation. Under 30% of our customers use GitLab, and we believe our offerings are well-positioned in the market.

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