Sign in

    Jfrog Ltd (FROG)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Mar 7, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$37.71Last close (Feb 13, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$43.00Open (Feb 14, 2025)
    Price Change
    $5.29(+14.03%)
    • Strategic Collaboration Agreement with AWS Enhances Market Position: JFrog has recently signed a strategic collaboration agreement with AWS that they believe will enable joint enterprise customers to cost-effectively scale their DevSecOps and AI-driven software solutions in the cloud. This partnership is expected to strengthen JFrog's cloud offerings and expand their customer base.
    • Positive Customer Feedback on GitHub Integration Boosts Demand: The GitHub partnership has received wonderful feedback from the field, with customers who choose GitHub and JFrog together now enjoying a one-platform experience that enhances their development workflows. This indicates strong demand for JFrog's integrated solutions and may drive future growth.
    • Growing Momentum in Security Products with Potential for Large Deals: JFrog's security offerings are gaining traction. Although proof of concept for security tools may take longer, customers actively consolidating point solutions could result in multiyear, multimillion-dollar deals as delivered in 2024. This suggests significant potential for revenue growth from their security products.
    • Delayed Revenue from Security Products Due to Longer Sales Cycles: Shlomi Haim stated that proof of concept for security tools will take longer and customers are being cautious before displacing existing products. This suggests that revenue from security offerings may be delayed, impacting growth in the security segment.
    • Decrease in Total Customer Count from 7,300 in 2023 to Approximately 7,300 in 2024: JFrog focused on enterprise customers and parted ways with smaller customers, replacing 740 logos with 604 logos. This decline in customer count may limit future growth opportunities from smaller clients.
    • Guidance Indicates Lower Free Cash Flow Margin for 2025: Despite achieving a 25% free cash flow margin in 2024, the guidance for 2025 is 19%, representing a 6 percentage point decrease. This could signal potential pressures on cash flow generation and profitability in the upcoming year.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    +19% (from $97,260K in Q4 2023 to $116,078K in Q4 2024)

    Revenue growth was driven by increased customer adoption and expanded market presence across regions, evidenced by strong gains in the US (up ~18%), Israel (up ~14%), and Rest of World (up ~21%), collectively pushing overall revenue higher.

    Geographic Revenue

    US: +18%, Israel: +14%, RoW: +21%

    Regional expansion highlights that targeted market initiatives and increased customer investments contributed to revenue gains across diverse geographies, supporting an overall uplift in subscription revenue.

    Operating Income

    Deteriorated from –$15,378K to –$52,343K (over 240% worse YoY)

    Operating margin pressure emerged as sharply rising costs—particularly in SG&A and depreciation & amortization—eroded profitability despite higher revenue, resulting in a significant deepening of operating losses.

    SG&A Expenses

    +110% (from $59,419K in Q4 2023 to $124,906K in Q4 2024)

    Escalating SG&A costs are attributable to increased personnel expenses, share-based compensation, and acquisition-related charges, which more than doubled year-over-year as the company invested heavily in sales, marketing, and integration efforts.

    Depreciation & Amortization

    +247% (from $3,791K in Q4 2023 to $13,137K in Q4 2024)

    Significantly higher depreciation and amortization expenses reflect the impact of new asset and intangible acquisitions—in line with recent integration activities—which have increased the gross carrying amounts and, hence, the periodic expense recognition.

    Net Income

    Deteriorated from –$11,233K to –$23,198K (approximately 106% worse YoY)

    Profitability weakened as the benefits of revenue growth were outweighed by surging costs in operating, SG&A, and amortization, leading to a more than doubling of net losses compared to the previous year.

    Net Change in Cash

    Reversed from +$23,781K in Q4 2023 to –$152,157K in Q4 2024

    Cash flow performance reversed dramatically due to heavy cash outflows—likely from significant investments or acquisition-related payments—that overwhelmed positive operating cash flows witnessed in the prior period, leading to a major deterioration in the cash position.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Revenue

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    $116 million to $118 million (17% year-over-year growth at midpoint)

    no prior guidance

    Non-GAAP Operating Profit

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    $16.5 million to $17.5 million

    no prior guidance

    Non-GAAP EPS

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    $0.15 to $0.17

    no prior guidance

    Revenue

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $499 million to $503 million (17% year-over-year growth at midpoint)

    no prior guidance

    Non-GAAP Operating Income

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $73 million to $75 million

    no prior guidance

    Non-GAAP EPS

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $0.67 to $0.69

    no prior guidance

    Baseline Cloud Growth

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    30% to 32%

    no prior guidance

    Net Dollar Retention Rate (NDRR)

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    mid‑teens

    no prior guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Revenue
    Q4 2024
    $113.5M – $114.5M
    $116.08M
    Beat
    Revenue
    FY 2024
    $425.9M – $426.9M
    $428.49M (sum of Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4)
    Beat
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Cloud Revenue Growth & Guidance

    Consistent strong growth reported from Q1 through Q3. Q1 noted 47% YoY growth with mid‑40% guidance. Q2 revised guidance downward to around 40% YoY amid macro concerns. Q3 emphasized robust migration‐driven figures but acknowledged challenges in large cloud deals.

    Q4 reported $49.4M cloud revenue with a 37% YoY increase and set conservative 2025 baseline growth of 30‑32% while stressing caution in guidance due to pipeline uncertainties.

    Consistent high growth but evolving skepticism: while growth remains strong, there is a shift to more cautious and conservative forward guidance (evolving sentiment) amid macro challenges and timing uncertainties.

    Security Offerings Performance and Sales Cycle Dynamics

    Across Q1–Q3, security solutions consistently drove large enterprise deals. Q1 highlighted growing adoption and long proof-of-concept cycles. Q2 and Q3 reiterated solid momentum with extended sales cycles and delayed deal closures affecting revenue timing.

    Q4 maintained the narrative with strong security adoption (250 customers, key role in mega deals) but continued to note longer sales cycles and delayed deal closures impacting near-term revenue predictability.

    Steady momentum with persistent caution: The growth in security offerings remains strong, yet the challenges of extended sales cycles persist, continuing to affect the timing and predictability of revenue.

    Strategic Partnerships and Integrations

    Q1 had little to no focus on this. Q2 introduced the GitHub partnership with AI integrations like CoPilot. Q3 expanded on the narrative with enhanced GitHub integration and new collaboration with NVIDIA for AI/ML solutions.

    Q4 introduced a strategic collaboration agreement with AWS alongside an enhanced GitHub integration that couples cloud, security, and AI capabilities.

    Emerging and deepening: What began with GitHub in Q2 has evolved in Q4 to include key partnerships (notably with AWS), signaling a broader, more integrated strategic approach to drive cloud and AI/DevSecOps solutions.

    Customer Segmentation and Retention Trends

    Throughout Q1–Q3, the focus was on a shift towards enterprise clients and reducing reliance on smaller customers. Q1 noted robust growth in high‑ARR customers and high retention rates. Q2 and Q3 reiterated this trend with deliberate segmentation and enhanced net/gross retention metrics.

    In Q4, the narrative continued with replacement of smaller logos with higher‑growth enterprise customers and the maintenance of super high retention rates (net dollar retention around 116% and gross retention at 96%).

    Consistently enterprise‑facing: The company remains laser‑focused on transitioning to and expanding its enterprise customer base with consistently high retention metrics, reflecting durable revenue growth and strategic targeting.

    Large Deal Closures and Extended Sales Cycles

    Q2 and Q3 discussed extended sales cycles and deferred large deals impacting near‑term revenue predictability. Q1 provided less detail but hinted at strategic timing related to large deals.

    Q4 continued to report that extended sales cycles and deferred large deals remain a challenge, with management adopting a conservative approach by de‑risking the pipeline in guidance.

    Persistent challenge: The underlying issue of timing sensitivity and deferred deal closures remains consistent, causing revenue uncertainty even as the company closes significant deals.

    Gross Margin Pressure and Cost Efficiency Investments

    Q1 reported very high margins (85.1%) thanks to Vdoo integration efficiency gains. Q2 and Q3 saw margins trend lower (around 83‑84%) as the cloud revenue mix increased, despite ongoing cost discipline initiatives.

    Q4 reported a slight decline to 83.2% gross margin, attributed to an increased mix of cloud revenue, though the company continues to focus on expense discipline and strategic investments.

    Gradual pressure: Margins are under slight downward pressure as the cloud mix grows, with disciplined cost investments continuing; the trend indicates a slow but steady adjustment toward lower, more sustainable long‑term margins.

    Free Cash Flow Margin Outlook

    Q1 reported a free cash flow margin of 16.6%, Q2 at 15.5%, and Q3 showing a temporary lift at 24.5%. Discussions in these periods centered on long‑term targets around 28% without major concern for margin compression.

    Q4 introduced a more cautious outlook with guidance expecting a drop to 19% in 2025 from a 25.2% margin in 2024, citing factors like upfront payments in large deals and a conservative approach to forecasting.

    Increased caution: While historical numbers varied, the latest guidance reflects growing concerns over margin compression and a more conservative forecast for future free cash flow margins.

    Postponed Migrations and Market Challenges

    Q1 noted that major migration projects were delayed as customers adopted a cautious stance. Q2 and Q3 further detailed postponed migrations and extending sales cycles due to macro uncertainties and budgetary constraints.

    Q4 reiterated that customer migrations remain delayed and that extended sales cycles, driven by budget conservatism and procurement challenges, continue to impact near‑term revenue.

    Persistent market caution: The challenge of delayed migrations and a conservative market environment is consistent across periods, with little sign of rapid acceleration in customer transitions to the cloud.

    Discontinuation of Legacy Cost Efficiency Initiatives

    Q1 and Q2 highlighted legacy initiatives (e.g., the Vdoo database integration) as key efficiency drivers, contributing to margin improvement. Q3 had no significant new emphasis on these prior initiatives.

    Q4 does not mention legacy cost efficiency initiatives, suggesting that earlier focus on legacy integrations (like Vdoo) is no longer a focal point in current discussions.

    Diminishing focus: The earlier emphasis on legacy cost efficiency initiatives has diminished in current period discussions, signaling a transition away from past acquisitions as a primary narrative.

    Emergence of AI-driven DevSecOps Solutions

    Q1 introduced AI/ML integrations with partnerships involving MLflow and Qwak, positioning the company for MLOps and responsible AI. Q2 and Q3 expanded on these initiatives with further integration of GitHub CoPilot and early experiments in merging AI with DevSecOps.

    Q4 placed a strong emphasis on AI-driven innovations, highlighting products like JFrog ML, deeper integrations with GitHub, NVIDIA, and Hugging Face, and positioning Artifactory as a registry for AI models.

    Rising emphasis: The narrative around AI-driven DevSecOps solutions has grown significantly, transitioning from early experimentation to a core competitive strategy with increasing innovation and market positioning, likely to have a large future impact.

    1. Guidance Philosophy Change
      Q: Is guidance now more conservative with potential upside?
      A: Ed Grabscheid confirmed that the company is adopting a more conservative guidance philosophy, focusing on derisking large deals and not including usage-based upside in forecasts. This approach may allow for potential upside to guidance as more growth might trickle down to the bottom line.

    2. Free Cash Flow Margin Guidance
      Q: Why is free cash flow margin expected to decrease in 2025?
      A: Despite ending 2024 with a strong free cash flow margin of 25.2% , the guidance for 2025 is 19%, reflecting the timing of large multiyear deals and upfront payments. The company expects free cash flow margin to align with operating margin differences of around 4% to 5% and anticipates growth to trickle down in future periods.

    3. Cloud Growth Assumptions
      Q: What are the assumptions behind cloud growth guidance?
      A: The company expects cloud revenue growth of 30%–32% in 2025 , assuming a consistent pace of cloud migrations and noting that customers remain cost-conscious without spending above minimum commitments. They included $1.3 million from a new database cloud service in Q4, which is expected to scale similarly in the upcoming year.

    4. Big Deal Pipeline and Enterprise Traction
      Q: Are there similar big deals in the pipeline as seen in Q3?
      A: Shlomi Haim indicated that there are big opportunities in the pipeline that include cloud migration coupled with security offerings. The company remains conservative in its outlook but is optimistic about future success in enterprise traction.

    5. Security Adoption Impact
      Q: How will security adoption affect revenue and margins?
      A: With 250 customers adopting advanced security solutions , the company sees significant opportunities for growth. While they didn't provide specific margin details for security products, overall gross margin guidance remains at 82.5%–83.5%, incorporating all products and deployments.

    6. Macroeconomic Environment Impact
      Q: How has macro environment affected customer conversations?
      A: Shlomi Haim stated there has been no significant change in the macro environment; customers remain conservative with cloud usage and cautious due to potential regulatory changes, especially regarding AI adoption.

    7. Strategic Agreement with AWS
      Q: What is incremental about the AWS collaboration agreement?
      A: The new strategic collaboration agreement with AWS offers more cost-effective scalability for customers by improving commercial terms. This enhances the relationship with AWS, benefiting customers through more attractive offerings.

    8. GitHub Partnership Evolution
      Q: How is the GitHub partnership evolving?
      A: Integration with GitHub is receiving positive feedback, particularly in combining Copilot with the JFrog platform to enhance the software supply chain. This focus aims to improve ROI for development teams using both solutions together.

    9. Seasonality of Security Sales
      Q: Will security sales show more seasonality?
      A: Shlomi Haim does not expect special seasonality in security sales but notes that large deals may take longer due to customers' cautious approach and longer proof-of-concept phases.

    10. AI Opportunity and Qwak Acquisition
      Q: How does AI shift impact JFrog's opportunity with Qwak?
      A: The shift toward AI models presents a significant opportunity, as customers inquire about using Artifactory as a model registry. JFrog is integrating Qwak's capabilities into their platform but remains conservative, not including MLOps guidance in 2025 plans.