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FG

Fortitude Gold Corp (FTCO)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Reported full-year 2024 results: Sales $37.3M, net loss $(2.0)M (basic/diluted EPS $(0.08)), mine gross profit $18.3M; the company did not disclose discrete Q4 revenue/EPS in the 8-K, instead providing annual figures and operational updates including an estimated 43,000 recoverable gold ounces on the Isabella Pearl leach pad as of year-end .
  • Cost performance remained low-cost: 2024 cash cost after by-product credits $827/oz and AISC $966/oz; within recent quarters, Q3 cash cost $906/oz and AISC $990/oz; Q2 cash cost $782/oz and AISC $1,013/oz .
  • Guidance update: Management will not provide a 2025 production outlook due to permit timing uncertainty; is evaluating an Isabella Pearl pit wall layback to access additional high-grade oxide/transition ore; continues to focus on permits for County Line and Golden Mile; expects to reduce the 2025 exploration budget while awaiting permits .
  • Consensus estimates were unavailable from S&P Global for Q4 2024 at time of request, so we cannot assess beat/miss vs Street; note this constraint for modeling updates. Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable due to rate limits.
  • Potential catalysts: receipt of mining/development permits (Isabella Pearl Deep, County Line), a decision on pit layback, clarity on dividend trajectory; management cited a “light switch” improvement in regulator responsiveness following the election, which could accelerate permitting .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Low-cost operations persisted: 2024 cash cost after by-product credits $827/oz and AISC $966/oz; Q3 cash cost $906/oz and AISC $990/oz; Q2 cash cost $782/oz and AISC $1,013/oz .
  • Shareholder returns: $11.6M in cash dividends paid in 2024; quarterly dividends totaled $2.9M in both Q2 and Q3; management reiterated intent to return cash when possible (“we target to return as much back to the shareholders in cash dividends as we can”) .
  • Inventory tailwind: management estimates 43,000 recoverable gold ounces on the heap leach pad to be recovered in future years; this provides operational flexibility while permits are finalized .

What Went Wrong

  • Lack of Q4 disclosure granularity: Q4-specific revenue/EPS weren’t provided; company reported annual figures and withdrew 2025 production outlook due to permitting uncertainty, reducing near-term visibility .
  • 2024 bottom line pressure: despite $1.4M pretax income, mining and income tax expense of $3.4M drove a full-year net loss $(2.0)M (EPS $(0.08)), down from $17.0M net income in 2023 .
  • Regulatory bottlenecks: permitting delays continued to constrain the ability to layer new ore sources; management commentary emphasized prior federal understaffing and process shifts that slowed approvals .

Financial Results

Quarterly comparison (prior two quarters vs Q4 context)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Net Sales ($USD Millions)$9.554 $10.229 n/a (company provided full-year only)
Net Income ($USD Millions)$(0.138) $0.946 n/a (company provided full-year only)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.01) $0.04 n/a (company provided full-year only)
Gold Ounces Produced (oz)4,150 4,220 n/a; 2024 full-year 16,472
Cash Cost after by-product credits ($/oz)$782 $906 n/a; 2024 $827
AISC ($/oz)$1,013 $990 n/a; 2024 $966

Note: Discrete Q4 revenue/EPS not disclosed in 8-K; management emphasized annual results and operational updates .

Annual comparison (FY 2023 vs FY 2024)

MetricFY 2023FY 2024
Sales, net ($USD Millions)$73.073 $37.334
Net (Loss) Income ($USD Millions)$17.017 $(2.042)
Basic EPS ($USD)$0.71 $(0.08)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.70 $(0.08)
Mine Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$41.231 $18.333
Exploration Expenses ($USD Millions)$17.217 $12.906
Dividends Paid ($USD Millions)$12.521 $11.598
Avg. Realized Gold Price ($/oz)$1,939 $2,371

KPIs – Production and Costs

Annual

MetricFY 2023FY 2024
Gold Ounces Produced (oz)37,996 16,472
Silver Ounces Produced (oz)79,825 66,880
Cash Cost after by-product credits ($/oz)$536 $827
AISC ($/oz)$656 $966
Avg. Realized Gold Price ($/oz)$1,939 $2,371

Quarterly

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024
Gold Ounces Produced (oz)4,150 4,220
Cash Cost after by-product credits ($/oz)$782 $906
AISC ($/oz)$1,013 $990
Avg. Realized Gold Price ($/oz)$2,341 $2,441

Non-GAAP: Cash cost and AISC are non-GAAP; management directs readers to the 10-K MD&A for reconciliations .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Production OutlookFY 20252024 outlook was deferred pending permits No 2025 production outlook due to permit timing uncertainty and residual leach forecasting challenge Lowered clarity/withdrawn
Exploration BudgetFY 20252024 exploration spend $12.9M Expects to reduce 2025 exploration budget while awaiting permits; focus on mapping/modeling Lowered
Isabella Pearl – Pit Layback2025Permit to mine deeper received late Q3; focus on IP Deep Evaluating pit wall layback to access additional high-grade oxide/transition ore to the southeast New initiative
County Line Project2025Awaiting permits; designed as ore haul to Isabella Pearl processing; construction not including new pad Maintained focus on obtaining permits; project expected as next producing mine; capex lowered by leveraging existing facilities Maintained priority
Scarlet/Scarlet North2025Planned to submit modification after IP Deep approval Evaluating permit boundary expansion to include Scarlet/Scarlet North to accelerate potential open pit mining Progressing
Dividends2025Paid $2.9M both Q2 and Q3; ongoing monthly program No quantitative guidance; management reiterates intent to return cash when feasible Maintained intent

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Regulatory/PermittingBLM understaffed; minor vs major modification swing; delays impacting IP Deep; awaiting County Line Optimism post-election; pro-business expectations; reflection on prior permit environment “Light switch” improvement post-election; seeing increased responsiveness; awaiting new federal team Improving per mgmt
Exploration & PipelineHeavy drilling in H1; planned reduction H2 for cash conservation; multiple properties with intercepts Continued exploration; highlight Scarlet North and results Focus on mapping/model interpretations; reduced 2025 exploration budget; targets include Scarlet/County Line/East Camp Douglas Shift from drilling to mapping
Production OutlookDeferred due to permits Still awaiting permits; optimism returning No 2025 outlook; reliance on residual leach and permit timing Reduced visibility
Leach Pad InventoryCFO explained inventory increases and cost dynamics n/a specific new quantQuantified ~43,000 recoverable gold ounces at 12/31/2024 Clearer quantification
Dividend Policy$2.9M paid; strong cash position $2.9M paid; intention to continue returning cash Q&A: cannot guarantee; too many variables; intent maintained Cautious continuity
Uplisting/NYSEn/an/aWould uplist to NYSE when appropriate catalyst; not near-term priority Considered, contingent
Macro Gold Pricen/aHighlighted record highs near ~$2,700 gold n/aSupportive backdrop

Management Commentary

  • Strategic focus: “We will not be providing a 2025 production outlook, due to the permit timing uncertainty to build County Line… forecasting the residual leach of the estimated 43,000 gold ounces on the heap leach pad’s variable decline curve is a challenge.”
  • Optionality and pipeline: “We are currently evaluating our Isabella Pearl open pit for a potential pit wall layback to access additional high-grade oxide and oxide transitional ore… We remain focused on obtaining the permits to move our County Line project into production.”
  • Post-election permitting tone: “It was like a light switch. The week after the election results, all of a sudden the BLM’s attitude changed to us… We are seeing continued positive movement in our mine permit efforts within the agency since the election.”
  • Capital allocation: “As we look to conserve cash while waiting for permits, we have limited our drill exploration programs and are focusing on mapping new areas and modeling known mineralized zones.”
  • Dividend stance: “We target to return as much back to the shareholders in cash dividends as we can while also managing the needs of the business.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Dividend sustainability: Management emphasized too many variables to commit to a specific dividend path; intent is to return cash when feasible but no guarantees .
  • Isabella Pearl Deep and pit layback: Found deeper oxide/transition ore extending to the southeast; evaluating initial and larger pit layback options to access it .
  • Permitting environment: Noted immediate change in regulator responsiveness post-election; optimistic that staffing and process improvements will accelerate approvals .
  • Exploration budget and M&A: 2025 exploration drilling curtailed pending permits, with more mapping; M&A is evaluated but disciplined and challenging in high gold price environments .
  • Uplisting: Consider uplisting to NYSE with appropriate catalyst; not a near-term priority .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global Capital IQ) for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable at time of request due to rate limits; therefore, beat/miss analysis vs estimates cannot be provided. Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable due to rate limits.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term operational tailwind: ~43,000 recoverable ounces on the leach pad provides production visibility while permits are finalized; monitor recovery cadence and ounces recognized in 2025 .
  • Permit-driven catalysts: Watch for approvals to mine Isabella Pearl Deep, County Line construction permits, and the Scarlet boundary expansion—all could re-accelerate ore stacking and production layering, a core part of the model .
  • Cost discipline intact: Despite lower volumes, cash cost ($827/oz in 2024) and AISC ($966/oz) remain competitive; quarterly metrics show stability within a low-cost band .
  • Visibility reduced: Management withdrew 2025 production outlook due to permit timing and residual leach forecasting; traders should expect higher headline volatility around permitting newsflow .
  • Capital allocation posture: Exploration drilling curtailed; pivot to mapping/modeling to conserve cash; dividends continued in 2024 ($11.6M) but not guaranteed—updates on cash, leach recoveries, and permits will inform payout capacity .
  • Narrative shift: Management indicates improved regulator responsiveness post-election—a potential inflection in permitting pace; confirmation via actual permit grants would be stock-moving .
  • Action: Position sizing should reflect binary permit outcomes; consider trading around expected permitting updates and any pit layback decision, with gold price strength as a supportive macro tailwind (per management’s comments) .