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    Frontdoor (FTDR)

    FTDR Q2 2025: Synergies up to $15M, HVAC program fuels growth

    Reported on Aug 5, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$58.49Last close (Aug 4, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$64.61Open (Aug 5, 2025)
    Price Change
    $6.12(+10.46%)
    • Enhanced Two Ten Synergies: The company improved its cost synergy expectations from $10,000,000 to $15,000,000 in 2025, with guidance indicating a run rate of over $30,000,000 by 2028. This demonstrates accelerated integration and operational efficiency gains.
    • Robust HVAC Upgrade Program: The Q&A confirmed that the new HVAC upgrade program continues to perform strongly and is expected to remain a key revenue driver as the guidance is entirely focused on HVAC, showing strong market acceptance and room for growth.
    • Solid Structural Warranty Integration: The dedicated team for selling structural warranties through the Two Ten unit is delivering on its targets with predictable, long-term revenue recognition. The successful integration of this business supports sustainable revenue growth.
    • Integration and Synergy Uncertainty: The increase in two ten cost synergies from $10,000,000 to $15,000,000 suggests that while efficiencies are improving, there’s uncertainty surrounding how consistently these gains can be maintained—and whether the long-term target of $30,000,000 in run rate synergies by 2028 will materialize.
    • Delayed Revenue Recognition for Structural Warranties: The new home structural warranty business’s revenue is recognized over 10–14 years, which could lead to short-term earnings volatility and delay the economic benefits from this acquisition.
    • Limited Scope of the HVAC Upgrade Program: The strong guidance on the upgrade program is currently based solely on HVAC services. With water heaters and other potential programs still in testing phases, growth may be constrained if HVAC market conditions change.
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Revenue

    Q3 2025

    $600M–$605M

    $605M–$615M, expected 13% YoY

    raised

    Adjusted EBITDA

    Q3 2025

    $185M–$190M

    $180M–$190M, expected 12% growth

    lowered

    Revenue

    FY 2025

    $2.03B–$2.05B

    $2.055B–$2.075B, increased by $25M

    raised

    Gross Profit Margin

    FY 2025

    54%–55%

    55%–56%

    raised

    SG&A

    FY 2025

    $650M–$670M

    $660M–$670M

    raised

    Adjusted EBITDA

    FY 2025

    $500M–$520M

    $530M–$550M

    raised

    Share Repurchases

    FY 2025

    At least $200M

    Approximately $250M

    raised

    Effective Tax Rate

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    24%

    no prior guidance

    Capital Expenditures

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $35M

    no prior guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Enhanced Two Ten Synergies and Integration

    Q3 2024: Integration progress described as a “heavy lift” with regulatory approval pending and initial excitement for synergies. Q1 2025: Integration on track with strategic priority, contributing to revenue growth and improved real estate performance.

    Q2 2025: Increased synergy expectations from $10 million to $15 million, smooth integration with strong operational performance and reaffirmed long‐term goals.

    Enhanced synergy performance with improved cost reductions and a more optimistic integration outlook.

    Robust HVAC Upgrade and Sales Program

    Q3 2024: Strong revenue contribution expected with market expansion and contractor onboarding. Q1 2025: Demand growth with raised revenue outlook to $105 million, effective management of equipment transition noted.

    Q2 2025: Exceptional performance with a nearly 40% higher revenue year-over-year, raised outlook to $120 million, introduction of a new financing option boosting usage by 75%, and exploration of expansion into additional product areas.

    Continued robust growth with new financing enhancements and further revenue expansion potential.

    Structural and Home Buyers Warranty Integration

    Q3 2024: Integration in progress with regulatory approval pending for closing in Q4 2024. Q1 2025: Integration on track, significantly contributing to the real estate channel with 11% revenue impact and improved service requests.

    Q2 2025: Integration ahead of schedule with enhanced cost synergies (increased from $10 million to $15 million), smoother operational transition of the combined sales teams, and positive structural warranty revenue contributions.

    Improved operational integration with higher synergy expectations and stronger cross‐selling opportunities.

    Direct-to-Consumer Channel Strategies and Discounting

    Q3 2024: Strong marketing campaigns boosted brand and ad awareness; discounting drove demand while increasing conversion. Q1 2025: DTC channel growth with a 15% increase in members achieved through targeted campaigns and strategic discounting despite revenue trade-offs.

    Q2 2025: Continued organic growth in the DTC channel with a 9% increase in home warranties, record high brand awareness achieved through refined marketing and discounting strategies, albeit with lower price realization.

    Consistent focus on DTC growth with evolving discounting strategies to support new member acquisition.

    Cost Management, Supply Chain Agility, and Tariff Impacts

    Q3 2024: Emphasis on cost reduction through lower claims costs, optimized contractor usage via bulk purchasing, and flat inflation with no discussion of tariffs. Q1 2025: Proactive cost management via dynamic pricing and supply chain optimization with careful monitoring of tariff risks.

    Q2 2025: Continued process improvements, leveraging scale and preferred contractors, and benefiting from a more favorable macro environment—including lower than anticipated tariff impacts—which boosted gross margins.

    Sustained focus on cost management enhanced by improved supply chain agility and a favorable tariff environment.

    Equipment Transition to New Refrigerant Standards

    Q1 2025: Effective management of the transition with securing old equipment and a smooth shift to new, compliant systems highlighted, supporting raised guidance.

    Not mentioned

    Topic no longer mentioned in the current period [N/A].

    On-Demand Business Expansion and Partnership Growth

    Q3 2024: Expansion initiatives discussed through key partnerships with AARP and Moen, with on-demand revenue projections over $100 million and strategic channel diversification.

    Not mentioned

    Topic is not mentioned in the current period, indicating a discontinuation of focus compared to Q3 2024 [N/A].

    Declining Real Estate Channel Attach Rates

    Q3 2024: Industry-wide decline noted with attach rates falling from the high 20s/30% to the teens, reflecting a broader market challenge. Q1 2025: Continued headwinds in the real estate channel with a 6% decline in first‐year organic member count.

    Q2 2025: Ongoing challenges with a 63% decline in real estate home warranty units over five years; however, optimism is indicated by an 18% increase in unsold inventory suggesting a shift toward a buyer's market.

    Persistent concerns over declining attach rates with cautious optimism due to improving inventory signals.

    Sustainability of Record Gross Margins and External Conditions

    Q3 2024: Record gross margins of 57% achieved due to favorable price increases, weather, and operational efficiencies, though concerns remained over the sustainability of these factors. Q1 2025: Record margins supported by dynamic pricing and cost management, with external risks such as tariffs noted.

    Q2 2025: Gross margins reached 58%, driven by process improvements, low cost inflation, and effective supplier negotiations, with improved external conditions contributing to an optimistic full‐year outlook.

    Incremental margin improvements with strong operational control, albeit with ongoing external dependencies.

    1. Acquisition Synergies
      Q: What drove two ten synergy increase?
      A: Management explained that enhanced operational efficiencies and improved back-end processes elevated synergies from $10M to $15M in 2025, and they continue to expect a run rate of over $30M by 2028.

    2. Real Estate Revenue
      Q: Why did real estate revenue outperform guidance?
      A: Management attributed stronger-than-expected real estate performance to a dedicated two ten real estate team and effective integration during peak seasonal activity.

    3. Structural Warranty Sales
      Q: How is the structural warranty sales process?
      A: Management stated that two ten’s structural warranty business is progressing predictably with robust sales and a long-term revenue recognition period of 10–14 years, meeting expectations.

    4. Inventory Attach Rates
      Q: Are rising inventories improving attach rates?
      A: Management noted early indications that increasing inventory levels are starting to support better home warranty attach rates, though detailed impacts remain preliminary.

    5. Claims Reserves
      Q: Any updates on two ten claims reserves?
      A: Management confirmed that there is no significant development in claims reserves for two ten, describing the situation as straightforward.

    Research analysts covering Frontdoor.