TechnipFMC - Earnings Call - Q4 2024

Executive Summary

• Q4 revenue $2.37B (+0.8% q/q, +13.9% y/y) and adjusted EBITDA $351M (14.8% margin) as Subsea seasonality and mix compressed margins sequentially; adjusted diluted EPS was $0.54. Net income was $224.7M (9.5% margin) with a $54M discrete non‑cash tax benefit; adjusted figures exclude $14.6M restructuring and a $3.9M disposal loss.
• Commercial momentum remained strong: total inbound $2.92B (Subsea $2.70B), book‑to‑bill ~1.3x; backlog $14.38B (+8.7% y/y). Free cash flow was $452.7M in Q4; net cash ended at $272.5M.
• 2025 outlook raised for Subsea: revenue $8.4–$8.8B (from $8.3–$8.7B) and adj. EBITDA margin 19–20% (from 18.5–20%); Company guides FCF $850M–$1.0B and will distribute at least 70% of FCF (≥30% y/y growth in distributions).
• Strategic wins underpin medium‑term trajectory: major iEPCI award for TotalEnergies’ GranMorgu (Suriname) and Shell Bonga North (Nigeria) in Q4; Prysmian collaboration on floating wind adds New Energy optionality.
• Stock‑relevant narrative: raised Subsea guidance, robust inbound, substantial FCF and a step‑up to ≥70% FCF payout are key near‑term catalysts; margins dipped sequentially on normal seasonality and mix but management reiterated a path to higher Subsea margins through execution and mix (iEPCI, Subsea 2.0, services).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Strong cash generation and balance sheet: Q4 free cash flow $452.7M; net cash $272.5M; Moody’s upgrade to Baa3 in Jan 2025, making all three agencies investment grade.
• Commercial execution: Q4 inbound $2.92B (Subsea $2.70B; book‑to‑bill 1.3x); backlog $14.38B (+8.7% y/y); Q4 awards include a “major” iEPCI for TotalEnergies GranMorgu (Suriname) and “substantial” Shell Bonga North (Nigeria).
• Strategic mix & outlook: Subsea 2.0 and iEPCI adoption accelerated; management raised 2025 Subsea guidance and committed to distributing at least 70% of FCF. CEO: “Both iEPCI and Subsea 2.0 orders reached new records in 2024… Subsea 2.0 tree inbound increasing more than 50%”.

What Went Wrong

• Sequential margin compression: Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin 14.8% (vs. 16.4% in Q3) and Subsea adj. EBITDA margin 16.5% (–180 bps q/q) due to seasonally lower vessel‑based activity and project mix.
• Surface Technologies softness: revenue $319.4M (–0.3% q/q, –10.6% y/y) on lower North America activity, partly offset by Middle East strength; inbound fell to $225M (–30% q/q).
• Non‑GAAP adjustments and charges: $14.6M restructuring/impairment and $3.9M loss on Measurement Solutions disposal in Q4; earnings also benefited from a $54M discrete tax benefit, complicating GAAP‑to‑non‑GAAP comparability.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Hello, and thank you for standing by. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the TechnipFMC Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star one again. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I would now like to turn the conference over to Matt Seinsheimer, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead.

Matt Seinsheimer (SVP of Investor Relations and Corporate Development)

Thank you, Regina. Good afternoon and good morning, and welcome to TechnipFMC's Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Our news release and financial statements issued earlier today can be found on our website. I'd like to caution you with respect to any forward-looking statements made during this call. Although these forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations, beliefs, and assumptions regarding future developments and business conditions, they are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by these statements. Known material factors that could cause our actual results to differ from our projected results are described in our most recent 10-K, most recent 10-Q, and other periodic filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. We wish to caution you not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements which speak only as of the date hereof.

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any of our forward-looking statements after the date they are made, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. I will now turn the call over to Doug Pferdehirt, TechnipFMC's Chair and Chief Executive Officer.

Douglas Pferdehirt (Chair and CEO)

Thank you, Matt. Good morning and good afternoon. Thank you for participating in our Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. I am very proud to report our strong quarterly and full-year results as 2024 was another year of tremendous success for the TechnipFMC team. For the full year, we achieved total company inbound of $11.6 billion, driving year-over-year growth and backlog to $14.4 billion. Subsea inbound orders increased to $10.4 billion, representing our fourth consecutive year with a book-to-bill greater than one. This inbound was best characterized by growth: growth in iEPCI, growth in Subsea 2.0, and growth in Subsea Services. These strong commercial results also benefited from a significant level of direct awards. Total company revenue for the year grew 16% to $9.1 billion. Adjusted EBITDA improved to nearly $1.4 billion, an increase of 47% when compared to the prior year.

Full year, free cash flow grew 45% to $679 million, of which we returned $486 million to shareholders, nearly double what we distributed in the prior year. Now, highlighting our commercial achievements, our integrated model, iEPCI, and our configurable product architecture, Subsea 2.0, are unique to TechnipFMC and are the fundamental tools we created to drive sustainable change in subsea economics. In 2024, iEPCI orders grew nearly 25% year-over-year, reaching an all-time high, and came from a diverse set of clients across six offshore basins. Our ability to continue growing this model stems from our strengthened offering that expands the market for integrated opportunities, which was evident during the year. For example, in the fourth quarter, we were awarded an iEPCI contract from TotalEnergies for the GranMorgu project, the first oil and gas development offshore Suriname.

During the year, we were also awarded iEPCI projects for the Shell Sparta and BP Kaskida developments, both of which will utilize our 20K high-pressure technology, helping unlock the most economically attractive opportunities in the Paleogene and the U.S. Gulf. Our ability to expand the iEPCI market is not limited to traditional energy resources, with several major milestones achieved in 2024, including the Mero 3 HISEP project in Brazil, representing the first iEPCI for Petrobras and the first to utilize subsea processing to capture CO2 directly from the well stream for injection back into the reservoir, all of this done on the seafloor. We also announced the industry's first subsea all-electric system for carbon transportation and storage for the Northern Endurance Partnership in the United Kingdom.

More importantly, we formalized a new partnership with Prysmian that will combine our subsea expertise and dynamic offshore applications with Prysmian's leading cabling solutions. Together, this unique combination creates iEPCI for offshore floating wind. Inbound in 2024 was further supported by growth in our configurable product architecture, Subsea 2.0. Our ability to generate significant product volume allows us to leverage the full benefits of the configure-to-order model, creating incremental manufacturing capacity without the need for additional capital expenditures. In fact, we have already demonstrated the ability to more than double manufacturing output from our existing capacity for this product portfolio. From our client standpoint, by eliminating product engineering hours and streamlining the supply chain, we can accelerate equipment delivery by up to nine months.

It is really no surprise to us that we saw continued adoption of our Subsea 2.0 platform, with Subsea 2.0 tree orders in 2024 significantly outpacing the more than 50% growth of our total subsea tree awards versus the prior year. The clear benefits of iEPCI and Subsea 2.0 are further enhanced by our relentless focus on execution, where we seek continuous improvement using the lean principles of simplification, standardization, and industrialization, or SSI. As part of our SSI journey, we have made a bold decision to approach every process in TechnipFMC from a fundamentally different perspective, one focused on visual management, allowing our teams to identify and solve challenges much earlier than before. Across the hundreds of projects we execute, our teams map out every step, and every project deliverable is identified as green or red, meaning it is either on track or it is not.

We then focus our efforts on things that are not on track, and we use this approach for every function in the company, not just manufacturing. Adopting this methodology was a cultural shift that did not happen overnight. It required transparency and trust, and adopting a mindset throughout the organization that fosters asking for help. It is transforming how we operate by achieving seamless coordination and client-centric improvements, key drivers of a robust execution that help deliver greater value for our customers and higher and more sustainable returns for our company. During the year, Surface Technologies benefited from the proactive steps we have taken to refocus the business. We are capturing the benefits of targeted actions, including the sale of our Measurement Solutions business and optimization of our Americas portfolio.

We expect our actions to drive further improvements in financial performance, as evidenced by the guidance we have now provided for the coming year. In the Middle East, the growth we anticipated is materializing, driven by the ramp-up in activity in the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This represents a differentiated growth opportunity for our company. More broadly, we remain positive on the outlook for energy. We anticipate further growth in demand, with affordability and security of supply now also major considerations. We continue to believe that both offshore and the Middle East markets will remain the preferred investment of operators, with deep water attracting a growing share of capital flows driven by much improved economic returns and broad access to these resources.

In offshore markets, we are seeing this today, with both an expansion of new regions for development and a growing list of clients. We have secured $20.2 billion of subsea orders in the past two years, and our strong market visibility gives us confidence we will exceed $10 billion of inbound in the current year, delivering on our guidance of $30 billion over the three years ending 2025. As we look beyond the current year, we have increased visibility into the pipeline of longer-term opportunities, supported by a growing list of named projects that extend beyond the historical planning horizon. This gives us even greater confidence that activity will remain robust through the end of the decade.

In closing, I am very proud of what we accomplished this year and the momentum we have built to create a truly unique company in an industry that was ready for a better way forward. The success of our strategy was clearly on display this year, and we continue to lay the groundwork for further improvement ahead, with multiple levers to drive business performance, some of which are less visible to our external stakeholders, yet are very much within our control. Our unique combination of direct awards, iEPCI, and Subsea Services continues to represent an even greater share of our business, growing to more than 80% of total subsea inbound in 2024 and underpins the quality of our expanding backlog.

Importantly, the actions we have taken on our transformational journey to further simplify, standardize, and industrialize the organization are changing how our company operates and give us confidence that we will successfully execute for our customers. And finally, we are committed to sharing our growing cash flow with increasing shareholder distributions to at least 70% of free cash flow in 2025, which would result in growth in distributions of at least 30%. 2024 was indeed a major milestone for TechnipFMC on our more ambitious journey. I will now turn the call over to Alf.

Alf Melin (Executive VP and CFO)

Thanks, Doug. Inbound in the quarter was $2.9 billion, driven by $2.7 billion of subsea orders, with total company backlog ending the period at $14.4 billion. Revenue in the quarter was $2.4 billion. EBITDA was $354 million when excluding $19 million primarily related to restructuring, impairment, and other charges, and a foreign exchange loss of $3 million. Turning to segment results, in Subsea, revenue of $2 billion was up modestly versus the third quarter. The increase was driven by higher activity in the U.S. Gulf and Africa, largely offset by lower activity in Latin America and Asia-Pacific following the completion of project milestones in the third quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $339 million, with a margin of 16.5%, down 180 basis points from the third quarter. The sequential decrease was primarily due to seasonally lower vessel-based activity and a mix of projects executed from backlog in the period.

For the full year, Subsea revenue grew 22% versus the prior year, with a Subsea adjusted EBITDA margin up 340 basis points to 16.7%. In Surface Technologies, revenue of $319 million was essentially unchanged versus the prior quarter. Lower activity in North America was offset by increased project activity in international markets, particularly in the Middle East. Adjusted EBITDA was $54 million, up 9% versus the third quarter. The improvement was due to the higher project activity in international markets, partially offset by the lower volumes in North America. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.8%, up 150 basis points versus the third quarter. For the full year, Surface Technologies' revenue decreased 9% versus the prior year. However, when excluding the impact of the sale of the measurement solutions business, which closed in the first quarter, revenue increased 1%. Adjusted EBITDA margin increased 140 basis points to 15%.

Turning to corporate and other items in the period, corporate expense was $38 million, net interest expense was $13 million, and tax expense in the quarter was a benefit of $18 million. Tax expense was significantly below plan, due in large part to a net $54 million positive benefit from the release of valuation allowances, which resulted from the company's assessment of the carrying value of its deferred tax assets and future projections of incomes. Cash flow from operating activities was $579 million, and capital expenditures were $126 million. This resulted in free cash flow of $453 million. Free cash flow for the full year was $679 million, with free cash flow conversion of 50%. Total shareholder distributions were $91 million in the quarter and $486 million for the full year.

We ended the period with cash and cash equivalents of $1.2 billion, bringing us to a net cash position of $272 million. In January, we received an upgrade to investment grade for Moody's, with a positive outlook on the company's credit metrics following the change. With this upgrade, we are now rated investment grade by all three rating agencies. Moving to our financial outlook, we have provided detailed guidance for the current fiscal year in our earnings release. I will now provide additional color on the guidance and our first quarter outlook. Starting with Subsea, we are updating our previous guidance provided in October. We now expect revenue of $8.6 billion, with Adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.5% at the midpoint of the full year range. This implies revenue growth of 10% and Adjusted EBITDA growth of 28% when compared to 2024.

For the first quarter, we anticipate subsea revenues to decline low to mid single digits sequentially due to normal seasonality, while adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to improve modestly from the 16.5% reported in the fourth quarter. Moving to Surface Technologies, we are guiding to revenue of $1.275 billion, with adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.5% at the midpoint of the full year guidance range. This would represent mid single digit growth in adjusted EBITDA when compared to the prior year. For the first quarter, we anticipate Surface Technologies' revenue to decline approximately 10% when compared to fourth quarter results, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 14.5%. Lastly, we anticipate total company capital expenditures of approximately $340 million for the full year, which is below our long-term guidance range of 3.5% - 4.5% of revenue.

When all of these items are taken together, we expect to drive our full year free cash flow higher to a range of $850 million-$1 billion. In closing, the team delivered on what we believe to be among the key drivers of value creation in 2024, either meeting or exceeding our commitment for segment profitability, free cash flow, and shareholder distributions. And looking ahead, we anticipate further growth in each of these metrics in 2025 when compared to the prior year. We expect total company revenue to increase high single digits and Adjusted EBITDA to improve to approximately $1.76 billion for the full year when taking the midpoint of our guidance items. We expect to convert over 50% of Adjusted EBITDA into free cash flow.

And I will reiterate that we expect this to translate into further growth in shareholder distributions in 2025, where we now plan to distribute at least 70% of free cash flow. Said another way, we expect this to be another strong year for TechnipFMC, with Adjusted EBITDA growth of more than 25% excluding foreign exchange, growth in free cash flow of more than 35%, and growth in shareholder distributions of more than 30%. Operator, you may now open the line for questions.

Operator (participant)

At this time, if you would like to ask a question, press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Our first question will come from the line of Arun Jayaram, J.P. Morgan Securities. Please go ahead.

Arun Jayaram (Research Analyst)

Doug, good morning. My first question, Doug, is I wondered if you could talk about kind of the margin journey. You know, at the midpoint of the range, you're now pushing, you know, close to 20% margins in subsea. And I wondered if you could talk about, you know, between the favorable mix, and you mentioned in the release some of the multiple drivers to boost business performance. But give us a sense of where do you think we can move across in this margin journey as we think about 2026 and beyond.

Douglas Pferdehirt (Chair and CEO)

Thank you, Arun. Good morning. Great question. One that we continue to, you know, monitor ourselves, and as we have ended every call now for quite a while with the statement of major milestone on a more ambitious journey, so it is true that 20%, you know, seemed like maybe, you know, a peak margin to, you know, for this sector in the past. And in fairness, it probably was, and certainly the historical data would support that. But remember, that was when the company and the industry was working in a very different operating model than we're operating in today. TechnipFMC chose to take a different path. We started that journey in 2015, and we're reaping the benefits of it today.

And as highlighted in the script, the combination of the Subsea 2.0 configure-to-order and the iEPCI integrated model showing our customers real tangible value by reduction of cycle time. By doing that, we're able to extract our fair, you know, economic benefit from that. And that's why we're able to have the margin progression that we have experienced. And as clearly stated, you know, we are not calling this a peak margin or a midpoint margin, or we're not classifying it in any way because we continue to expect to deliver higher margins as we have higher quality backlog being executed. And this operating model, we really see the benefits of this new operating model. So, Arun, I guess I would just say it's a new way of doing business. It didn't come easily.

It took a lot of hard work, but that's all behind us now, and we're focused on delivering these results and better.

Arun Jayaram (Research Analyst)

Great. My follow-up, Doug, you know, obviously the Saipem subsea merger announcement, you know, earlier this week has attracted a lot of buy-side attention. In fact, TechnipFMC was mentioned a number of times on that conference call. You know, Saipem did mention they're going to honor their SURF agreement with TechnipFMC until expiration. But I was wondering if you could give us your bigger picture thoughts on the implications of this merger in your business, and maybe, you know, we've been getting a lot of questions on if you could go through some of the specifics of your SURF agreement with Saipem and, you know, maybe the go-forward, you know, what happens on expiration, et cetera.

Douglas Pferdehirt (Chair and CEO)

Okay, sure. Obviously, we have a lot of really exciting things to talk about here at TechnipFMC, but let's take a moment here. I do appreciate the opportunity to share, you know, our views on the proposed merger. So, look, Arun, you know, in these types of strategic transactions, there's one of two paths you can take. You can take the path of consolidation, or you can take the path of integration. Many choose the path of consolidation. As a matter of fact, we saw this recently on the equipment side or the SPS side of the industry as well. What is the result of this? More of the same. You know, clearly a bigger company, but doing the same thing. It does not fundamentally alter the market dynamic. Indeed, it does impact the market structure, but it doesn't change the way that the market operates.

We chose to go through a very different path, and I would say it's the less traveled path for sure, which was integration. So we chose to put together an offering that we believe could create real sustainable change to drive improvement in subsea economics that were never able to be achieved in the past by significantly reducing cycle time. And this was why we brought together FMC and Technip to create the new company. Much more disruptive, I would say higher risk, but the good news is we did it in 2017. So it was eight years ago. So we are well beyond all of the pain, and we are enjoying the gain. You know, our strategy continues to be focused very much on creating client success. The way we create client success is to reduce cycle time and ensure schedule certainty.

These are the two drivers that our customers are making their decisions based upon today. So we're going to continue to focus on that because this creates a sustainable new way of working and, if you will, a better way forward for the industry. Our focus is to be asset light. We're going to do more with the same or more with less, as we've identified, and I talked about in our script in terms of the manufacturing capacity as well as the fleet capacity by shortening cycle times. The integration has proven to improve project economics. We benefit from a reduction in cycle time, and therefore we can do more with less, or if you will, a reduction of capital spend. And our clients and we benefit together because of this type of a model. And therefore, the results speak for themselves.

Over 80% of our business is directly awarded to our company because of this truly unique offering. Now, you mentioned the relationship with other vessel operators, and we have several, and these are in what we call the vessel ecosystem. The vessel ecosystem simply gives us optionality. We have multiple different partners. We have a very open architecture. We welcome anyone to work in our ecosystem. The benefit to us is optionality. The benefit to our partners is they gain access to an expanding and exclusive iEPCI market. If you will, it gives them an ability to address a portion of the total available market that they otherwise would not have access to. Our focus remains very much on iEPCI or the integrated projects. This is how we can deliver the greatest value versus installation-only contracts.

So we're going to continue to do that, and we believe it's going to create the greatest benefit for our clients. We have many people interested in working with us in the ecosystem, and we would expect others to continue to or to work with us in the future. And just to maybe summarize the impact of the company, the proposed merger does not have any impact on our ability to meet our inbound expectations for 2025, and there is no change to our view of our inbound outlook over a multi-year planning horizon.

Arun Jayaram (Research Analyst)

Doug, thanks a lot. That's super helpful.

Operator (participant)

Our next question will come from the line of Scott Gruber with Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Scott Gruber (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Yes, good morning. Great to see the cash conversion target going to over 70%, which I think is purely leading. My question is how you think about managing the balance sheet now that you're net cash. You know, we'll see how much more cash you put on the balance sheet this year. Maybe it's north of $200 million, which kind of could take it towards $500 million. But is there a level where you think you have enough cash on the balance sheet? You know, would you cap it around $500 million and kind of move to return, you know, basically all cash to shareholders? How do you think about managing the cash on the balance sheet?

Alf Melin (Executive VP and CFO)

Yes, hi there, Scott. Alf here. I'll take this one. So first of all, maybe some numbers. You know, currently we have less than $900 million of gross debt on our balance sheet, and our gross leverage ratio is clearly well below one times EBITDA. And as we noted, we have achieved investment-grade ratings with all three agencies, most recently with Moody's, who is now also holding a positive outlook on us. So all of those things have, you know, makes us feel really good about the strength of our balance sheet, to be honest. So then you kind of pointed out we have strong fourth-quarter cash flow performance here that drives us to a net cash position of $272 million at the end of the year. And looking ahead, we have also strong free cash flow generation in 2025.

Near term, first of all, we think about this as, you know, in near term, we'll take down the debt as debt matures. So we have a debt maturity in June, and we will take care of that one. And then we obviously are not looking to build a cash balance, okay? But we do think for our type of business, it makes sense to have a small net cash position. And obviously, when you say small net cash position and the strength of what we have in the free cash flow outlook, we are being very clear of committing that we will distribute at least 70% of our free cash flow to our shareholders in 2025.

Scott Gruber (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

That's great. That's great. Appreciate the color. And then turning to the Subsea revenue mix, you know, in terms of the revenue contribution from Subsea 2.0 projects in 2025, kind of roughly where will that stand? And how much will services contribute? Just thinking about the kind of higher margin contributors here impacting the mix.

Douglas Pferdehirt (Chair and CEO)

Scott, I'll start, and then Alf can add any additional color, so on the Subsea 2.0, you know, thank you for asking. It was a big highlight of the quarter. You know, we talked about the fact of the significant number of orders being over 50% of our orders coming from Subsea 2.0. You know, clearly we're past the inflection point in terms of market adoption, and as you correctly point out, the exciting part is as we see that convert through the backlog into revenue, or if you will, as it goes through the execution phase. Myself and the Chief Technology Officer, we were just in Malaysia and, you know, looking at some of the progress that we've been making in terms of the manufacturing cadence associated with Subsea 2.0. It's a real-time learning curve. In other words, it's getting better and better.

We've yet to really see what the full potential is going back to the original question from Arun at the beginning of the conversation. This is why we have further confidence in a lot of the internal things that we're doing in terms of driving our overall performance for the company. But, you know, I would say in the neighborhood of about one-third of our activity that's going on in manufacturing today is associated with the new Subsea 2.0 configured to order product family or product platform. We know the orders are well above that, as we've stated. So that will continue to grow. And as that continues to grow, it will make the results through our, you know, I think the efficiency of our manufacturing process even that much greater. And I'll add some additional color. Just maybe add a couple of comments.

So first of all, it's clear that we have built our success and continue to build our success on the high-quality backlog that we have achieved. As noted, it has an increasing share of iEPCI in Subsea 2.0, which becomes an enabler for our business overall. And then you kind of look at our track record. We have demonstrated ability that we can execute on this backlog, and we've been driving margin improvement consistently here over the last several periods. And this ability also is now further enhanced by what Doug said in his prepared remarks about our business industrialization and including visual management systems, which allow us to have earlier identification of any potential problem and which helps us secure our execution even further. And then, but at the end of the day, it always starts with what you onboard also.

So we're going to be very, very focused on the awards that we are continuing to onboard, meaning the right quality for us and meaning the right fit for our industrialization, which actually would be translating into more iEPCI, more Subsea 2.0, and more services. That's where we're focused. When you look at whether you look at 2025 or you look beyond, these are the ingredients that are going to continue to drive us. The strength of our backlog in inbound, that drives revenue growth and the quality of our backlog that results in the expanding margins for the reasons mentioned.

Scott Gruber (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

That's great. Do you have a rough figure for the service portion of it too?

Douglas Pferdehirt (Chair and CEO)

Yeah. Was there a question about the service volume? Yeah. So service, first of all, yeah, service revenue. So if you take services overall, though, we grow the service business roughly in line with the rest of the overall growth of subsea. And we estimate or we're projecting that that will be around a $1.8 billion revenue business in 2025.

Scott Gruber (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Great. I appreciate all the color. I'll turn it back. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from the line of David Anderson with Barclays. Please go ahead.

David Anderson (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning, Doug. I just want to ask you kind of a bigger offshore question. So we've seen some mixed views on how offshore markets are expected to play out in the next 12-18 months. On the one hand, we have the offshore drillers that aren't seeing many new tenders and seem to be suggesting projects might be getting pushed out a bit. On the other hand, we have service companies that are expecting 2026 to be a marked improvement in offshore development activity. Just want to know if you can kind of give us what you see from your standpoint in terms of installations and backlog conversion. Do you think 2026 could be a step up in that or will be similar as far as you can tell standing here today?

Douglas Pferdehirt (Chair and CEO)

Thank you, David, and good morning. You know, we've talked about this on a couple of the other calls in terms of, you know, some of the impact that's happening to the drillers. As I've, you know, said before, you know, I think these things are company-specific. They're not industry-specific, and I stand by that. And I think that's a more widely accepted view from many at this point in time. So look, what we see is a significant amount of activity, a significant, you know, obviously we have the strength of the backlog, which largely will be covering 2025 and most of 2026 already to your question. But in addition to that, the amount of tendering that is going on right now is significant. I've been on the road now.

I think this is either and a half or four and a half weeks, and it's almost all been associated with meeting clients on very significant projects that are wanting to secure high-quality capacity. They want our iEPCI, they want our 2.0, and they are looking to get a commitment. And these are for projects that go well beyond the 2026 timeframe. So no, David, I don't see any, you know, if you ask me what do I think of 2026 versus 2025, I think it's going to be, you know, a more significant year. We won't put numbers to that at this stage, but clearly 2026 is going to be a, there's no, we're not reaching a plateau on the horizon.

David Anderson (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

That was actually my follow-up question was on the tendering activity. I was just kind of curious if maybe you could provide a little color around that of kind of what you're seeing out there. You said a growing list of named projects, but I assume there's a lot of exploration happening, maybe talking about the gas demand. Are you starting to see more on that side of the business? I know some projects were sort of pushed off to the side on the gas side. Continued development. Can you maybe just add a little bit more color in terms of those conversations and where you think we're going to start seeing more of these orders? And I don't know if you want to go there, but I mean, it's $10 billion annually. Is that a number you think you can kind of keep consistently beyond 2025?

Douglas Pferdehirt (Chair and CEO)

So David, let's break it down a couple of different ways. I think, you know, the drivers continue to be the mature markets. We're not seeing any pullback in any of those, you know, be it the U.S. Gulf, be it the North Sea. You know, you're going to see some good tendering activity again this year. Brazil continues to remain quite strong. I think some of the mature basins will be coming back, and we'll actually surprise people to the upside. I would use West Africa as an example of that, possibly parts of Asia as well. And then when you look at some of the new horizons within the existing basins, the Paleogene is spectacular. The amount of tendering activity, and well, actually, it's more direct award activity, if I'm being honest, to our company is humbling.

We will continue to do everything we can to maintain our clients' confidence there as well. Guyana, I would put in the same category. When you start to look at some of the emerging basins, obviously we had the award in Suriname that we just announced in the past quarter. We are seeing other potential tendering activity in Suriname. You're beginning to see tendering activity happen in Namibia, return to Mozambique in terms of tendering activity. So actually quite strong in the emerging basins as well. You know, finally, and it's always important that we don't forget, there's a very solid underlying core business of tiebacks or brownfield activity where the capital expenditure for the host facility, it's already been, you know, that has already been spent so that the returns on these projects are extremely attractive.

Having the largest install base allows us to really leverage that in that area as well. You know, in terms of, you know, what does it look like beyond 2025? Let me be clear, it's not a plateau. Let me be clear, there is no cliff. You know, we are talking about projects again well towards the end of the decade, and we would expect to continue to build a very healthy backlog.

David Anderson (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thank you very much, Doug.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Wilson with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Mark Wilson (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Hello, good morning. Doug, Alf, thanks for taking my question. Your own global opportunity slide shows the highest number of really large awards over $1 billion than I think you've ever shown before, now in double figures of 10. Could you speak to, Doug, the reasons behind these project sizes getting larger? Is it the complexity of the projects and the equipment required or the depth, or indeed is it simple pricing? That's the first question. And the second then is you also spoke to how cycle time is so important for clients. And earlier this year, I believe you spoke about being able to deliver your equipment still a year quicker than the competition. I'd just like to confirm that to be the case and whether there's anything to update on that. Those are two questions. Thank you.

Douglas Pferdehirt (Chair and CEO)

Well, good afternoon, Mark. So let's take the first one first. It's a good observation, one that we have obviously also, you know, observed. You know, obviously there's an economic element of it, but that's not what's driving it. I mean, we've talked about this for some time. The quality of the rock offshore is truly phenomenal. We kind of got away from that a little bit as an industry, and we started focusing on, you know, on other opportunities because, you know, these big projects do require a lot of upfront commitment from our clients, and they do carry the execution risk. I believe the reason you're seeing so many of these larger projects or the clients are migrating back towards the highest quality reservoir or the highest quality rock, which is why these projects are the size that they are.

They're also migrating back to the offshore and towards the, you know, our offering because we have been able to consistently demonstrate that we can deliver these very large projects in not only on time and on budget, but in many cases, we'll get to the second part of your question, at a reduced cycle time. So it's about schedule surety. That's what they're looking at. That's what they expect from us, and that's what we have been delivering to them. So this is really just the quality of the rock, which obviously makes the returns on the projects very attractive, but they want to be confident that they're working with a company, a company, not multiple companies, a company that can deliver these projects for them with a high level of confidence. And that's why, you know, we talked earlier, 80% direct awards.

That doesn't happen if they don't have the confidence in you. In terms of cycle time in one year, absolutely, Mark, but we're not done yet. We will continue, as you know, we are not done with our journey. So as others continue in the 1.0 world and we're in the 2.0 world, and we now have the experience, the knowledge, all of our heavy lifting is behind us. We're fully focused on execution. We would expect to continue to shorten the cycle time, and that is absolutely the relentless pursuit of everybody within our company. Every decision we make, every investment we make, we don't invest for scale. We invest to reduce cycle time.

Mark Wilson (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Appreciate it. Now, Doug, I'll hand it over.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Bianchi with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Marc Bianchi (Managing Director of Sustainability and Energy Transition in Industrial Gas & Equipment and Energy in Oilfield Services, and Equipment Research Analyst)

Hey, thank you. I first want to ask about the surface outlook here. So for first quarter, I know it's, you know, typically seasonally down from fourth quarter, but it looks like a bit more pronounced here. And then, you know, what I need to assume to get to the revenue for the year reflects a pretty sharp snap back. So maybe you could just sort of walk us through how you see that unfolding.

Alf Melin (Executive VP and CFO)

Yes, thank you for the question. Yeah, certainly your observation is correct that Q1 is weaker than not only than Q4, but also weaker on average than any other quarter. So if you look at the dynamics of that quarter, so it's really two things. You think about the uncertain outlook and a little bit of the weakness we've seen in North America. And then there's really a timing aspect to project and service activity in the rest of the world, and in particular in the Middle East. So we clearly, as we go through the year, we anticipate to continue to have stronger international markets and in particular Middle East. So you think about the revenue growth, think about for the year, think about maybe high single-digit revenue growth in the Middle East, and think about in North America being a headwind or maybe similar offsetting revenue decline.

And we will continue to improve the throughput of our production capabilities in-country in the Middle East as we further ramp up the volume there. So those things will help expand the margins as you go through the year, not only revenue, but also margins as you go through the year. And also, as you may have noted from our prior years' activities and even now in this past year, we have been rationalizing our North American footprint, and that is also helping us sustain profitability in North America.

Marc Bianchi (Managing Director of Sustainability and Energy Transition in Industrial Gas & Equipment and Energy in Oilfield Services, and Equipment Research Analyst)

Got it. Got it. Okay. Thanks, Alf Melin. Maybe this next one's probably for you as well. The CapEx guidance for the year is looking like a, I think it's about a 20% increase from what we saw in 2024, and it looks like revenues guided up about 9% at the midpoint, so suggests a bit more capital intensity, but maybe you could sort of talk through where that CapEx is going and kind of how to think about it beyond.

Alf Melin (Executive VP and CFO)

Yeah. Yeah. So I'll make this fairly simple in one way. So first of all, there isn't anything very different going on with our business, but there is actually such that we have, we embarked a little bit more than a year ago now, we embarked on an ERP upgrade program for our company. And this year is actually the first year where you will have some substantial CapEx associated with that upgrade program. And that's really driving, call it the majority of the year-over-year increase. So it's really something that will be here in 2025, it will continue in 2026, but start tailing off in 2027. So it won't be with us through all the cycles. And I just want to note also that even with this, we are still maintaining capital expenditure below our long-term guidance of 3.5%-4.5% of revenue.

So we can actually accommodate that program within that same commitment that we have made for the long term.

Marc Bianchi (Managing Director of Sustainability and Energy Transition in Industrial Gas & Equipment and Energy in Oilfield Services, and Equipment Research Analyst)

Got it. Okay. And then just on that, is there any impact to EBITDA margin in the current period and next year from this, or is it all kind of flowing through CapEx and ultimately EBITDA?

Alf Melin (Executive VP and CFO)

There is a little bit of an operating expense that is contained within our corporate expense bucket of our guidance, but most of it, the biggest expenditure is actually going through CapEx.

Marc Bianchi (Managing Director of Sustainability and Energy Transition in Industrial Gas & Equipment and Energy in Oilfield Services, and Equipment Research Analyst)

Okay. Thank you very much. I'll turn it back.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from the line of Kurt Hallead with Benchmark. Please go ahead.

Kurt Hallead (Head of Global Energy)

Hey. Good morning, everybody.

Douglas Pferdehirt (Chair and CEO)

Morning, Kurt.

Kurt Hallead (Head of Global Energy)

Hey, so Doug, thanks for all that insight and helping us see kind of what you see in your conversations with your varying customer base. So I guess my question is, you know, you've seen a pretty remarkable increase in the inbound, you know, being 80% of iEPCI and Subsea 2.0. Look, I guess theoretically, you can see that go to 100%, but I also have to imagine that there's probably some limit to that. But yeah, I'd like to get your insight and your perspective on where you think that percentage could ultimately land.

Douglas Pferdehirt (Chair and CEO)

Sure. And great question, and thank you for the observation because, again, two very important drivers to our business and our strategy. And, you know, we always said there are kind of three things to focus on in terms of if our strategy was going to be successful. It was the percentage of iEPCI, the percentage of Subsea 2.0, and the percentage of direct awards, all of which hit new benchmarks in 2024. Let's break down the iEPCI first. We're at 50% of our inbound. That's substantial. This was a new operating model, a new commercial model that had never been applied before. It takes a very high level of trust from our customers to take that amount of scope and hand over that responsibility to any company. We are deeply humbled and honored that they choose to do so with TechnipFMC.

Obviously, there was heavy lifting to get here, including the merger and the integration and all those things. It can take four or five years of distraction, again, well behind us as we're eight years into it, but important all the same. The iEPCI inbound, not only reaching the 50% was important, but if you look at the mix of the iEPCI awards that we had, representing almost 100% of the market for integrated projects in 2024, we had two that were in new frontiers. So that was very exciting. We had two. So if you will think about that, you have a new frontier, we've never operated here before, and we're going to go with this iEPCI model. We had two in emerging frontiers within existing basins, for instance, the Paleogene. We had two in mature basins because it continues to be the model of choice in mature basins.

And then we actually had two in non-traditional oil and gas developments, the Mero 3 HISEP project for Petrobras and the Northern Endurance Partnership project, CCS project for BP. So it's really not just the growth within our traditional customers or our traditional markets. It's really becoming the model of choice. Why is that? Because of the proven success. And then, so, you know, where does it go from 50%? There's no reason that that becomes a limit. I think there will always be some level of activity, either because the customer procures the product separate from the installation of the product. This happens in Brazil, as an example, with flexible pipe. We provide flexible pipe. We also have vessels on long-term charter that install the flexible pipe, but they use those vessels for our flexible pipe or flexible pipe from our competitor. So they separate those two work packages.

Perhaps in the future, they won't do that, but that's the way they operate today. So I do think there's an upper limit, if you will, to the total market for iEPCI. Moving to Subsea 2.0, again, the significance of it was our overall tree order was up 50%, which is tremendous growth year on year, but the Subsea 2.0 percentage of that was up even more. So you can speculate on that. That's just absolutely phenomenal. That drives the future performance of the company because that drives the manufacturing cadence. It goes back to Mark's question in terms of cycle time and our ability to be able to maintain the significant advantage that we have on cycle time in terms of delivery. So, you know, here, I think we could get into a debate, I do with my own team, that it couldn't. Why couldn't it get to 100%?

I haven't given up on that ambition, but okay, maybe it will be a bit shy of 100%, but the Subsea 2.0 is now clearly well above the 50% mark, so very exciting for the company.

Kurt Hallead (Head of Global Energy)

That's awesome. That's awesome color. I'll just leave it there. That's great. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from the line of Victoria McCulloch with RBC. Please go ahead.

Victoria McCulloch (Director of Energy Research and Equity Analyst)

Good morning. Thanks for your time this morning. Firstly, if I could ask, you talked about the standardization and industrializing of internal processes when you spoke in your initial comments. Could you provide some color as to how much of these actions are already reflected in this financial results you're seeing? And as a follow-on, but maybe a slightly different topic, Brazil doesn't meet your, or not all projects in Brazil meet the sort of integrated strategy and the appetite that you have in the business. Can you talk about your desire to maintain active in this market to the same degree and what you're seeing as attractive bidding opportunities in the next 12 months? Thank you very much.

Douglas Pferdehirt (Chair and CEO)

Thank you, Victoria, and I want to welcome you to our call. We're excited to have you on the call. Both questions are very important, so let's cover them one at a time. In terms of some of the internal initiatives, we tried to highlight that in the script. This is our focus on simplification, standardization, and industrialization, or SSI. Many companies do lean, but they do lean in manufacturing. What we're trying to emphasize is we do lean across our organization. Alf has now become a black belt in lean. He fully is indoctrinated, and the finance organization is now very much on this same journey, as well as every other function and every other business within our portfolio. That's the big difference. Few companies take it beyond manufacturing. We're a manufacturing company. We've understood this for some time.

We've seen the benefits of manufacturing, but it takes a real mindset change to take it beyond manufacturing. And not just a mindset of the people doing the work, but also the people managing the work. In other words, myself. This has been a real journey for myself. I've had to change my behaviors. We talk about it's okay to be red. It's not okay to stay red. Most managers don't like to see problems. We enjoy problems because if we see a problem early enough, we can correct that problem before it has any impact, any impact financially or any impact on our client schedule. So it's getting everybody in the organization to feel very comfortable to bring anything forward early, ask for help. We call it pull the help chain.