Q4 2023 Earnings Summary
- TechnipFMC increased its Subsea inbound orders guidance for the three-year period ending 2025 by 20% to $30 billion, reflecting strong demand and confidence in market durability. This growth is driven by both an expanding total market size and increased market share due to the company's unique offerings.
- The company anticipates significant margin expansion in its Subsea segment, forecasting an EBITDA margin of 16% in 2024 and aiming for 18% in 2025, with potential for continued growth beyond 2025. This margin improvement is supported by high-quality backlog and operational leverage from increased volumes.
- TechnipFMC is pioneering new Subsea processing technologies, such as the first iEPCI project ever awarded by Petrobras that utilizes Subsea processing for CO₂ capture and injection. This innovation opens up new growth opportunities in carbon capture and storage (CCS) and demonstrates the company's leadership in technology advancement.
- Subsea revenue growth in Q4 2023 may not be sustainable, as it was partly due to accelerated revenue recognition from legacy projects with lower margins. This led to a less favorable margin mix in the quarter.
- Strong free cash flow in Q4 2023 may not recur, as it was significantly impacted by progress payments and milestone achievements that increased net contract liabilities to $500 million, up from close to zero in previous quarters. Future cash flows might not benefit from similar levels of advances.
- Reliance on Subsea processing technologies introduces execution risks, as the Subsea processing market has "underdelivered in the past", according to the CEO. Despite being presented as a new growth area, adoption has been slow, which could impact future growth projections.
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Increase in Long-Term Order Guidance
Q: Why did you raise your order guide to $30B?
A: We increased our order guidance from $25 billion to $30 billion due to both market growth and our expanding market share from unique offerings like Subsea 2.0 and iEPCI. This gives us greater visibility into the cycle's durability and confidence in risk-weighted opportunities, especially since over 70% of our Subsea business comes from direct negotiations. -
Subsea Margin Expansion
Q: Will higher throughput improve margins further?
A: Yes, we anticipate that economies of scale from higher throughput will enhance our margins. We can achieve increased rates without significant capital expenditure, and this operational leverage supports our margin expansion expectations. -
Subsea Processing and Mero 3 Project
Q: What's unique about the Mero 3 project?
A: Mero 3 is our first iEPCI project with Petrobras, utilizing Subsea processing to separate CO₂ on the sea floor and reinject it, reducing greenhouse gas intensity. This approach simplifies FPSOs, cuts project cycle time, and improves economics, potentially opening opportunities for similar future projects. -
Securing Capacity and Future Projects
Q: Are clients locking in capacity for future projects?
A: Yes, clients are eager to secure our capacity due to our unique offerings. We're seeing an unprecedented number of large greenfield projects, giving us confidence in continued growth. Our integrated FEED studies provide early visibility and typically convert into direct awards, strengthening our backlog. -
Deepwater and Electrification Advances
Q: What's the next technological step in Subsea?
A: Advancements in going deeper and electrification are complementary. Electrification enables deeper developments by improving response times and allows longer tie-backs. Our unique flexible pipe design lets us operate at greater depths, opening opportunities in new basins. -
West Africa Project Opportunities
Q: Can you bring down costs for West African projects?
A: Many West African projects are undergoing refreshed FEED studies or commercial negotiations. With iEPCI and Subsea 2.0, we can deliver projects 12 to 14 months faster, significantly improving economics and aiding in project sanctioning. -
Long-Term Demand Outlook
Q: Why are you confident in long-term projects despite investor skepticism?
A: We believe energy demand will continue to rise, and realistic assessments of the energy mix support these investments. Our unique offerings provide clients confidence in reliable project delivery, as we consistently execute on schedule, shortening cycle times and enhancing project economics. -
Growth in iEPCI Awards
Q: Will the percentage of iEPCI awards increase?
A: Yes, the iEPCI portion currently represents 50% of our total Subsea business and continues to grow. Integrated FEED studies, which often convert into iEPCI projects, provide visibility and confidence in future awards and revenue growth. -
2025 Subsea Revenue Outlook
Q: Any change to 2025 revenue guidance with increased orders?
A: With our backlog growing 50% and higher average margins, we have greater confidence in the Subsea outlook. Positive momentum in Subsea services and the increased order guidance to $30 billion support an optimistic view for 2025 revenues. While we expect lower Surface Technologies revenue due to divestitures, the stronger Subsea performance offsets this impact. -
High-Pressure Gulf Projects
Q: What's the outlook for high-pressure projects like Sparta?
A: Sparta is our first 20,000 psi iEPCI project, marking significant progress in the lower tertiary Gulf of Mexico. Multiple clients have assets in this area, and we anticipate more high-pressure projects moving forward, expanding our opportunities in the region.
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