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FULTON FINANCIAL CORP (FULT)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- EPS beat on strong operating leverage; operating diluted EPS was $0.52 vs S&P Global consensus $0.43, while GAAP diluted EPS was $0.49 (efficiency ratio improved to 56.7%, PPNR rose) . Q1 EPS (S&P Primary EPS) beat by $0.09 per share*.
- Revenue definition matters: company “total revenue” (Net Interest Income + non-interest income) was $318.4M, but S&P Global tracked revenue at $304.5M vs $314.9M consensus, implying a modest miss on S&P’s basis* . For estimate comparisons, we anchor to S&P Global.
- Balance sheet and credit improved: NIM rose 2 bps to 3.43% as total deposit costs fell 11 bps to 2.03%; NPAs declined to 0.62% of assets; CET1 climbed to ~11.0% .
- 2025 operating guidance maintained; rate path assumption updated (now four 25 bp cuts starting June). Effective tax rate guidance raised to 18–19% (from ~18%), and management flagged potential NII/fee trending to the lower half of ranges given slower growth .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Operating efficiency and profitability improved: “Operating earnings per share of $0.52 … positive operating leverage … efficiency ratio dropped to 56.7% … operating ROA 1.25% … operating ROTCE 15.95%” .
- Funding costs eased and NIM ticked up: NIM 3.43% (+2 bps q/q); total cost of deposits fell 11 bps to 2.03% through “disciplined deposit pricing” .
- Credit and liquidity strengthened: NPAs fell to $199.0M (0.62% of assets), ACL/NPLs rose to 193%, and available liquidity covered net estimated uninsured deposits by 276% .
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What Went Wrong
- Loans declined $182M linked qtr as risk actions and strategic choices weighed on balances; loan yields fell 11 bps to 5.86% and NII decreased $2.5M with rate/day-count headwinds .
- Near-term NIM pressure items: ~$195M of sub-debt reset from fixed to SOFR+230 bps, adding “$6+ million” annual interest expense; management expects NIM to be “a little pressured” near term .
- Fee revenues showed mixed prints beneath the headline: day count/transactional softness and lower mortgage spreads offset a $2.4M equity-method income benefit; management guides fee income towards the lower half of the range on market sensitivities (wealth, mortgage) .
Financial Results
Income statement trend (oldest → newest)
Year-over-year snapshot
Consensus vs Actual (S&P Global basis, Q1 2025)
Note: Company “total revenue” (NII + non-interest income) was $318.419M; S&P Global’s revenue definition for banks can differ (we anchor estimate comparisons to S&P Global methodology) .
- Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Non-interest income detail (linked-quarter)
KPIs and balance sheet
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO framing: “Operating earnings per share of $0.52 … positive operating leverage … efficiency ratio dropped to 56.7% … operating ROA 1.25% … operating ROTCE 15.95% … growing our tangible book value per share, 13.8% on an annualized basis” .
- Strategic actions: “$38 million decline in indirect auto … $231 million decline in commercial construction as certain projects we elected not to convert … accelerated resolutions of troubled assets … loan growth expected to be in the low single-digit range for the year” .
- CFO on NII/NIM: “NII … $251 million … NIM increased 2 bps to 3.43%. Loan yields declined 11 bps to 5.86% … average cost of total deposits decreased 11 bps to 2.03% … cumulative non-maturity deposit beta 29% and total deposit beta 25%” .
- Guidance color: “Confirming operating guidance … updated rate forecast to include four 25 bp cuts in 2025 with the first in June … NII and noninterest income could trend towards the lower half of the respective ranges” .
Q&A Highlights
- Loan growth trajectory: Pipelines up y/y; originations consistent; Q1 decline driven by strategic headwinds/risk actions; expect low-single-digit growth for 2025 .
- NII rate sensitivity: A 25 bp cut is ~-$1.7M annual NII headwind at current positioning .
- Expense outlook: Operating expenses expected $190–195M per quarter for the remaining three quarters (timing effects; midpoint comfortable) .
- NIM headwinds: $195M sub-debt refi to SOFR+230 bps adds $6M+ annual interest; deposit betas slowing; margin likely “a little pressured” near term .
- Capital return: Priorities are organic growth, corporate initiatives, then buybacks; small buyback (~30k shares) late in Q1; valuation supportive .
- Credit reserves: ACL influenced by lower balances, construction migration, lower nonaccruals vs. macro forecast; expect Moody’s scenarios to get incrementally negative near term .
- Portfolio sensitivities: Monitoring tariffs—Ag (~$1B) and manufacturing are focal; minimal import/export exposure; some auto dealer exits contributing to loan decline .
Estimates Context
- EPS beat: S&P Global Primary EPS actual $0.52 vs $0.43 consensus (+$0.09); seven estimates*.
- Revenue (S&P-defined) miss: $304.5M actual vs $314.9M consensus (–$10.3M); six estimates*. Company “total revenue” (NII + non-interest income) was $318.4M, reflecting definition differences .
- Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Where estimates may adjust:
- Management reaffirmed ranges but guided NII and fee income towards the lower half given slower growth and market sensitivity (wealth, mortgage), and flagged near-term NIM pressure from sub-debt reset and CD repricing .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Profitability momentum is intact (operating EPS beat, better efficiency), aided by deposit cost management; however, near-term NIM faces discrete pressure from the sub-debt reset and CD renewals .
- Loan balances likely stabilize before inflecting later in 2025; strategic risk management remains a headwind to reported growth but improves asset quality (NPAs down; ACL/NPLs up) .
- Guidance is steady with a modestly higher tax-rate band and a more accommodative rate path; management transparently frames NII/fee bias to lower-half of ranges if growth remains slow .
- Capital flexibility is improving (CET1 11.0%); small buybacks occurred and authority added to repurchase sub-notes—offering optionality if organic opportunities remain limited .
- Fee income quality is mixed under the surface; equity-method uplift offset seasonal/transactional softness—wealth/mortgage remain macro-sensitive into 2H .
- Dividend was maintained at $0.18 (declared March 18); cash return remains consistent while pursuing transformation and integration priorities .
- Liquidity and deposit profile are strong (coverage of net uninsured at 276%); stable funding supports risk-managed growth and cushions against macro shocks .