GATX - Earnings Call - Q1 2019

Transcript

Speaker 0

Good day, and welcome to the GATX First Quarter Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jennifer McManus. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining GATX's twenty nineteen first quarter earnings call. I'm joined today by Brian Kenny, President and CEO Tom Ellman, Executive Vice President and CFO and Bob Lyons, Executive Vice President and President of Rail North America. Please note that some of the information you'll hear during our discussion today will consist of forward looking statements. Actual results or trends could differ materially from those statements or forecasts. For more information, please refer to the risk factors discussed in GATX's Form 10 ks for 2018.

GATX assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Before I provide a brief commentary on the quarter, I'd like to remind everyone that our Annual Shareholders Meeting will be held on Monday, April 29. It will be in Downtown Chicago at the Willis Tower, and the meeting begins at 12PM Central Time. Slides from Brian Kenny's presentation will be posted to our website at www.gatx.com. Earlier today, GATX reported twenty nineteen first quarter net income of $41,500,000 or $1.12 per diluted share.

This compares to twenty eighteen first quarter net income of $76,300,000 or $1.98 per diluted share. Our first quarter results are reflective of an operating environment in Rail North America consistent with our expectations coming into the year. Rail North America's fleet utilization remained high at 99.4% at the end of the first quarter, and our renewal success rate was 83.6%. During the quarter, the renewal rate change of GATX's lease price index was positive 5.2% with an average renewal term of thirty nine months. We continue to successfully place new railcars from our committed supply agreements with a diverse customer base.

We have already placed over 8,200 railcars from our 2014 Trinity supply agreement and over three fifty railcars from our 2018 Trinity supply agreement. Additionally, we placed over seven sixty railcars from our 2018 ARI supply agreement. Our earliest available scheduled delivery under our supply agreement is in the 2020. During the quarter, Rail North America's remarketing income was approximately $9,800,000 As noted in the earnings release, our 2019 full year remarketing expectations remain unchanged from prior guidance. Within Rail International, the European railcar leasing market remains strong.

GATX Rail Europe is seeing steady demand across the fleet with utilization at a historic high of 98.9%. Rail International's investment volume was approximately $33,000,000 during the first quarter. Portfolio Management's results were primarily driven by the excellent operating performance of the Rolls Royce and Partners Finance affiliates. We are expecting 2019 to be another excellent year for investment volume. American Steamship Company's sailing season started in late March, and we are off to a good start on the Great Lakes.

We anticipate 11 vessels in service in 2019. GATX investment volume in the quarter was approximately $147,000,000 We were also active under our share repurchase authorization during the quarter, buying back more than 529,000 shares for approximately $40,000,000 Those are the prepared remarks. I'll hand it over to the operator so we can open up for Q and A.

Speaker 0

Thank you. At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, that's star one to ask a question. We'll take our first question from Allison Poliniak of Wells Fargo.

Speaker 2

Hi, guys. Good morning. Can we touch on maintenance and what your expectations are? Are we still in that high single digits for the year? How should that trend throughout the quarter, the next few quarters?

Speaker 3

Sure, Allison. Good morning. It's Bob Lyons. So we came into the year, and I believe back in January, Tom and Brian and Jen laid out that net maintenance expense would be up 7% to 10% in 2019 over 2018. That was due to a combination of increased activity and also increased compliance activity that we have scheduled for the year.

Through the first quarter now, that guidance of plus 7% to 10 for 2019 remains intact. I think we're on track for that. And we had a fairly good quarter in terms of tackling some of the compliance work that's on the docket for the full year.

Speaker 2

Great. And then could you remind us, the North American Rail, that other revenue, what's in there was up pretty sizably from a year ago. I'm just trying to figure out what drove that this quarter.

Speaker 4

Hi, this is Tom Ellman, and I'll comment on that, and then I'll turn it over to Bob for some additional color. Primarily that increase relates to two separate items. The first of which is that we had some cars that came back with considerable damage caused by the customer. And the part of our lease provides us with the ability to recover those costs. We actually ended up scrapping those cars.

So if you look down in the scrap line, you'll see that that actually was a net loss for the quarter, which is unusual for us, and driven by those cars. The other part of that increase, the other half of that increase is due to some revenue that we receive related to maintenance. Some of the maintenance that comes into our shops is either customer responsibility as part of the full service lease or something a customer asks us to do. And we're able to rebill that to the customer. And that comes in on a very, very lumpy basis, not something that you can predict accurately quarter to quarter.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I think Tom covered it very well that customer liability revenue or repair revenue is really dependent on the volume of work and the content.

Speaker 4

And so it can bump around quarter to quarter. And the only other comment I'd make with regards to the penalty payment received, As Tom mentioned, it

Speaker 3

was largely offset by a scrap loss. So from a segment profit standpoint, you had two separate line items with an unusual level of activity, but really net net no real impact no material impact at all on segment profit or EPS for the quarter.

Speaker 2

Great. Thanks. That's helpful. And then just lastly, LPI turning positive, good news. Is there anything that skewed that number?

Was it a car type mix? I know that the average term came down as well. Any color there that you can give us?

Speaker 5

Actually, Allison, it's Brian. I can take that one. So we did expect a positive change in the LPI during the first quarter. But once again, as I said in the past, the LPI change is not a great quarterly measure because it frequently exhibits quarter to quarter volatility. And that really depends on the volume of various car types in the LPI that renew in a given quarter, and that's exactly what happened in the first quarter.

So as an example, we had some coal renewals, a very small number of coal renewals that came off very low rate leases and renewed at a couple $100 a month, which of course is a huge percentage increase. But it gets even though it was a small number of renewals, it gets put into the LPI according to the weight of coal cars in our fleet. So that's why we always say disregard it for the quarter. It's better to look at it annually because of the law of larger numbers. And I'd say we're right where we said we will be coming into the year.

Speaker 2

Great. Thanks. That's helpful.

Speaker 0

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Justin Long of Stephens.

Speaker 6

Thanks and good morning. So I wanted to start with a question on the sequential trend you've seen in lease rates overall and then what that trend looks like in tank and versus freight cars as well? I think the guidance at the start of the year was for a stable rate environment in 2019. So just curious if your outlook on that front has changed.

Speaker 3

Good morning, Justin. Q4 to Q1 overall lease rates were essentially flat. But we'll take it separately. Tank was positive Q4 to Q1. For that to occur, we need stable demand, which we had from our customers on the tank car side.

We also have a relatively extended backlog in terms of tank cars to be built. So the next available space really if somebody wants new tank cars is early in 2020. That's across the industry. So for tank cars coming up for renewal, we have a little bit more leverage in pricing. And we've seen that in positive lease rate movement Q4 to Q1 and really broad based across the tank car fleet, not concentrated in any one particular car type.

Freight spend more challenging. Rates have been Q4 to Q1 are down a little bit. We see a little bit more hesitancy or cautiousness, I would say, among the freight car customers. And the backlogs aren't nearly as long. So you don't have that same leverage that you might on the tank car side.

Speaker 6

Okay. That's helpful. And then kind of going back to the 2019 guidance, I know the EPS outlook didn't change. But I was curious if there were any moving pieces within that outlook that changed significantly that you'd highlight? I know you've mentioned remarketing.

The outlook there is unchanged and maintenance should still be up 7% to 10%. Is there anything that you would note, that's changed versus what you've expected at the start of the year?

Speaker 4

Justin, this is Tom. And the short answer to that question is no. That we expect quarter to quarter variation in several items, but our overall expectation for the year remains unchanged.

Speaker 6

Okay. And then just lastly, I wanted to ask about the announcement we got last week with Greenbrier purchasing ARI's manufacturing business. Does that have any impact on the long term order that you placed with ARI last year? I'm just curious if that commitment will all transfer to Greenbrier after that deal closes or if you have an option to alter that agreement because of the change in control.

Speaker 5

Yes, Justin, it's Brian. I can handle that and let Tom chime in since he did negotiate that agreement. But we anticipated a change in control transaction might be possible when we were negotiating the ARI supply agreement. So with that possibility in mind, we thought terms that would protect us from a supply and cost perspective in the event of a change of control. So I would just say we're covered contractually in those areas if the Greenbrier deal was consummated.

Speaker 4

Nothing really to add. I think Bren covered it.

Speaker 6

Okay, great. That's helpful. I appreciate the time.

Speaker 0

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Mike Bodendistel of Stifel.

Speaker 7

Thank you. Just wanted to ask you if, the railroads in the last year or so, being more aggressive about imposing assessorials for holding onto pieces of equipment and I know the STP has, you know, have a hearing on the maybe cracking down on that. Is is that the type of thing that's, you know, impactful enough to to be to be meaningful in your business?

Speaker 3

We haven't really seen any significant impact in terms of car demand from our customer base. Clearly, there's consternation among certain customers, users of the rails, some dissatisfaction for some of the challenges that have come about through implementation of PSR. But as it relates to our business, no significant change.

Speaker 7

Got it. And then wanted to ask you, on your balance sheet, you have this quarter listed rights of use assets that you're leasing. Can you just explain what those are since that's a new thing?

Speaker 1

Hi, Mike. Yeah, that's actually related to the adoption of the lease, the new lease accounting standard as of oneonenineteen. So the right of use asset there is it represents all of our leases as a lessee, all of our operating leases as a lessee. And what you should note there is that the majority of those are sale leasebacks that we had historically been disclosing in our off balance sheet disclosures. So what you'll really see is a flip from that to now it's on our balance sheet.

There's a little bit of a difference, because now we also have, right of use assets for other leases. For example, corporate office headquarter lease would be on there as well.

Speaker 7

Got it. That makes sense. Thank you.

Speaker 0

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Matt Elkott of Cowen.

Speaker 8

Good morning. Thank you. I just wanted to dig a little deeper on the tank car front. I think the last time we talked about the DOC-117s, you guys had maybe a couple or a few thousand of those. That's why I was just wondering if you added any or if you have plans to add any as part of your agreements with Trinity or ARI.

And, you know, since you've secured this this capacity, how that positions you guys, you know, over the next couple of years? It looks like the, lease rate outlook for tank cars is, looking good for the foreseeable future.

Speaker 3

Matt, it's Bob Lyon. So for any any tank cars we'll take delivery of, they'll be the state of the art state of the art DOT one seventeen j's. You know, we will continue to spread our new car deliveries across a number of different car types, commodities, and end customers. We don't anticipate nor would we be well served by trying to predict any specific commodity market and development and weigh and go heavily into one particular card type. I think you know that's not our strategy.

It's not served, anybody well, in the industry over the years. Our fleet remains highly diversified. We'll continue to add lots of different tank card types. And again, we are in good shape both with the ARI and the Trinity orders running through 2023. We have ample access to the tank cars we'll need, roughly 2,400 a year between those two orders, plus some freight cars on top of that.

The ARI order put us in a real good delivery position with a lot of flexibility.

Speaker 8

Okay. That's helpful. So you can you give us the the number that you have in the fleet right now, the DOT one seventeen j's? Is it still around 2,500?

Speaker 1

2,400. Yep.

Speaker 9

Okay.

Speaker 8

And I know the to retrofit a CPC twelve thirty two, it doesn't really cost that much, only 5,000 or $6,000. Is that something that you guys will not consider? You'll stick to the DOT one seventeen j's?

Speaker 3

Our retrofit activity has been fairly limited.

Speaker 4

Yeah. So so for the, I just wanna be sure we we know what you're talking about there, Matt. So for the, for a legacy car, we we have stated several times that we, we have no plans to retrofit those. For the CPC1232, you've got to differentiate between the jacketed car and the non jacketed car. The jacketed car is a relatively inexpensive retrofit.

And not only do we plan to do those, we have done those. The nonjacketed car is a much more expensive retrofit, and we've commented that we'll take a look at that. It depends on individual situation.

Speaker 8

Okay. Yeah. I'd also add Yeah. Go ahead.

Speaker 3

I'm sorry, Matt. I was just gonna say I'd add relative to the industry, where there have been, as Tom mentioned, there have actually have been legacy cars retrofit. We have done none of those compared to roughly 10,000 done by others.

Speaker 8

Got it. And just one last question. Can you remind us how many cars you have coming off lease this year? And I I don't know if you've provided it before. I don't think you have.

But if you can give us a breakout of how many of those are freight versus tank.

Speaker 3

Through the balance of the year, we have about 15,000 cars left to renew roughly, and it's split relatively evenly between tank and freight. And no significant concentration in any one particular car type within either of those categories. And I'd add a very low exposure, whether it be, some of the more challenged car types such as crude or sand or ethanol. You know, the numbers are very, very low.

Speaker 8

Perfect. Thank you very much.

Speaker 0

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Steve O'Hara of Sidoti and Company.

Speaker 10

Yeah. Hi. Good morning.

Speaker 8

Good morning.

Speaker 10

Just on the your comments about the utilization being extremely high. I'm just curious, I mean, you expect utilization to fall and maybe that's related you know, expecting maintenance to, you know, go a little higher throughout the year?

Speaker 3

No. We would expect utilization to remain relatively high. You might see, you know, a half a basis or half a percent or a percent tick off of that depending on what happens here in the second half of the year. But we anticipated coming into the year, utilization will remain in the high nineties. It has, And that's already been factored into how we've thought about the overall maintenance expense, net maintenance expense going up 7% to 10% for the full year.

Speaker 10

Okay. Okay. And then just on the I guess, relative relative to your comfort level around, you know, the order book that's out there and then, you know, the cars in storage, I mean, that's picking up. I'm just wondering, you know, about your feelings around those items. I mean, I think, you know, maybe a year ago, you guys were fairly downbeat about, you know, the order book that was out there and, you know, relative to demand and cars and storage.

I mean, it seems like it's been, you know, pretty much a 180 on that front in terms of the commentary that I've heard, I mean, which would seem pretty positive. Is that am I reading that wrong?

Speaker 3

Yes. I wouldn't necessarily say it's been a 180. I mean, concern has always been and continues to be that the backlog, can get extended out, that they're despite an environment here over the course of the last six or seven years where rail traffic, carload traffic has been relatively flat. We've continued to have net fleet growth every year. That makes it challenging in the lease market, for sure.

And if you look at the the number of cars in storage, you know, this quarter, again, it ticked up a little bit. You know, we believe a good number of those cars, really are are related to sand again. We don't have a big exposure there. And it it would be a little bit difficult to look just at this first quarter number in terms of the industry cards and storage. Because you also had a lot of weather impacts during the course of the quarter, which slows down, some of the movement of those cards, and they could take into the idle category even if they're on lease and and in use.

Speaker 10

Okay. Alright. Thank you. And then maybe just last one, on the, asset disposition gains. There's no change in your, you know, outlook there.

I think it was, you know, approaching, you know, twenty eighteen's level. Is that still the right way to think about it?

Speaker 8

Yes.

Speaker 3

Secondary market remains very active, especially if you have high quality assets on on good leases with good customers. We're continuing to see a lot of interest. And and fortunately, GATX has a lot of that. And so we continue to see very good interest in the assets we're putting out in the secondary market.

Speaker 4

Okay. All right. Thank you very much.

Speaker 0

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Matt Brooklier of Buckingham Research.

Speaker 11

Hey, thanks and good morning. Bob, you mentioned that the secondary railcar market is relatively healthy here, and you guys reiterated your expectations for gains on sales. For the year, can you give us a little bit of color? And I know this is difficult. Obviously, depends on when portfolios are out in the market when they get acquired.

But any sense as to the asset disposition gains when those are potentially booked through the remainder of this year?

Speaker 3

It's difficult to predict on a quarterly basis. I would, you know, I I would look at the next three quarters on a fairly ratable basis. But it can it can move around depending on other portfolios that are in the market, the level of, activity and interest and desire, you know, expediency to close from some of our, buyers. You move around

Speaker 8

a little bit, but,

Speaker 3

I I think probably trying to think about that ratably over the next three is probably reasonable.

Speaker 11

Okay. Is is it fair to say there's more interest on the tank side of things versus freight cars just given kind of the the other trends that are happening right now?

Speaker 3

No. No. Not necessarily. We, you know, we we tend to sell more freight cars than we do tank cars. And you have a bigger universe of buyers for those cars.

Tank cars tend to be more complicated, more service oriented. And so you you normally have a bigger buyer universe on the freight side.

Speaker 11

Okay. That's helpful. And then any weather impact in the quarter? I think most likely you would have called it out in the press release, but any weather impact in first quarter and maybe in second quarter considering the flooding that we have right now in the Midwest?

Speaker 3

Well, I'll answer on the rail side. Nothing in particular. Clearly, you listen to the Class one railroads and read their reports, they had tremendous weather challenges in the first quarter, whether it be record cold and snow and then flooding. So there were a lot of challenges hence in an environment where we feel like the underlying demand feels very consistent with where we were in the fourth quarter, no significant change. Even with that carloads on a year over year basis or sequential basis for Class 1s were down.

A good portion of that is is weather related. But as it relates to our business specifically, no. On the rail side, I'll let Brian comment on ASC.

Speaker 5

Yeah. The other place you see weather impacts is at American Steamship with ice, especially as you come out in the spring. They are experiencing delays, especially in Eastern Lake Superior and Eastern Lake Erie, but seven vessels, went out in March and the rest got out in April. So we're in good shape now.

Speaker 11

Okay. Good to hear. Appreciate the time.

Speaker 0

Thank you. We'll take our last question from Justin Bergner of G Research.

Speaker 9

Good morning, Brian, Bob, and Tom.

Speaker 8

Hey, Justin.

Speaker 9

Just to start, if railcar loadings remain somewhat anemic for this year, what is the key driver that's sort of going to allow utilization to stay in that 99% level?

Speaker 3

Well, we came into the year expecting, at least on our from our standpoint, fairly stable carload activity. So our high utilization or expectation for high nineties utilization already baked in a fairly benign carload market. The key, Justin, as you know, is having the fleet that we have highly diversified across car type customer and commodity on long term lease and having no significant exposure to one particular car type in any given quarter or year as they roll over has put us in a very good position. That's always been our guiding philosophy. It continues to be the case.

And we work really hard for those renewals. It's a challenging market, less so on renewals than on new car placements. But still, you have to work very hard. You have to have strong customer relationships and great maintenance and service to back it up. That's the success of our commercial organization has enabled us to keep that utilization high.

Speaker 9

Okay. That's very, good and and helpful. With respect to the tank car lease rates, if you can't line up a new lease until the 2020, at least with GATX, why aren't tank car lease rates climbing even more sequentially? Are most people sort of who have needs before 2020 already kind of set with those needs?

Speaker 3

Yeah. I just wanna clarify. That's for a new car placement. Our next new car availability is in the 2020, March and April 2020. So we we can't allocate new cars to anybody today.

Cars that are rolling over that are up for renewal, because of that, and because that's also a bit of an industry phenomenon too. There's no new car near term availability. If somebody's rolling over a lease today, they don't have a lot of alternatives. They can't go get new cars to replace an existing car. So you get a little bit more leverage on the lease rate discussion.

Speaker 9

Okay. Got it. But that wouldn't sort of jive with an even higher increase sequentially in tank car lease rates?

Speaker 3

Well, our customers are pretty yeah, our customers are pretty savvy. And you know, they they they lease from others. They also may own their own cars. Just like we don't wanna be beholden to any one car type or customer, typically, don't wanna be held hostage by any one lessor. So they're they're pretty smart about how they ladder their maturities and how they diversify their suppliers.

So we we don't have unfettered right to go raise rate or ability to go raise rate, without doing some damage or or taking some utilization risk.

Speaker 9

Okay, understood. With respect to the repurchases, it was a pretty healthy number this quarter. Was any of that sort of catch up for some of the blackout periods last year or anything driving the sort of higher run rate repurchases?

Speaker 4

Yes. So for last year, our guidance going into 2018 was we expected to be somewhere in the $100,000,000 range. This is for 2018. And we ended up coming in at 115. You're correct that we were blacked out in the middle of the year, but we did more at the end of the year to catch up for that.

For 2019, we expect to be somewhere in the $150,000,000 range. So our $40,000,000 that we did in the first quarter is sort of right on line with that expectation.

Speaker 9

Okay, great. And then lastly, any comments outside your specific contract with ARI? Any comments sort of on how if the assuming the Greenbrier ARI deal goes through, how it sort of might change the dynamic, for the leasing industry, longer term?

Speaker 5

Yeah. Justin, it's Brian. Really, it was just announced last week, so we're just looking at it now, looking at the numbers and trying to determine what the long term effect it would have on GHX, if there's any. So it's it's too early to tell. We don't even know if the deal is gonna be consummated.

So let more to come.

Speaker 8

All right. Thanks. Thank

Speaker 0

you. At this time, we have no further questions. I'll turn it back to Jennifer McAnnis for closing remarks.

Speaker 1

I'd like to thank everyone for their participation on the call this morning. Please contact me with any follow-up questions. Thank you.

Speaker 0

Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.