Global Blue Group - Q4 2024

Transcript

Jacques Stern (CEO)

Good morning. I am Jacques Stern, the CEO of Global Blue, and I will be joined today by Roxane Dufour, the CFO of the group, to present you the full year results of 2023-2024. Let me first introduce the presentation by a quick executive summary, which highlight the key takeaways. First of all, the year 2023-2024 has seen a very strong operational performance with a revenue increase of 36%, with an EBITDA increase of 91% to EUR 149, in line with the short-term guidance. Translating a drop-through of 64% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 35.2%, an increase by 10 point versus last year. Roxane will come back much more in detail on that in two second.

Second key takeaway, the year has shown also a rapid deleveraging and a solid balance sheet improvement, with a leverage ratio which is now at 3.4 versus 6.5 last year at the same time. And also, a refinancing during the year in December 2023, with now a debt maturity which is up to 2030. Third key takeaway is related to tax-free shopping recovery in May and April, where basically we have seen a further acceleration in Continental Europe at 141%, translating by 13-point increase versus Q4. And, in APAC, a recovery which is now reaching more than 200%, at 223%, translating an increase of 57-point versus Q4. I will come back to that more in detail, after Roxane presentation.

Fourth key takeaway, this has been a year, 2023-2024, of very solid strategic initiative progress in the front of digitalization, where we have improved by four points of Success Ratio at 56% versus 52% last year, and versus 48% in 2019. We have seen also the year with a continuous commercial dynamic translating into a growth retention ratio of 99.4% and a net retention of 102.8. And finally, also in the payment side, a strong acceleration of our gateway initiative with five acquirers signed during the year, and more than 350 hotels, which have been rolled out during this period.

Last but not least, as a key takeaway, we reconfirm our long-term target, which mean for the year 2024-2025 an EBITDA over EUR 200 million. And for the years onwards, i.e., 2025-2026 and onward, a revenue growth of 8%-12% and a drop-through of at least 50%, with an objective of leverage below 2.5x EBITDA on net debt. So with that in mind, I leave now the floor to Roxane, who will present you the Q4 and the full year result of 2023-2024.

Roxane Meyer (CFO)

Thank you, Jacques. I'm Roxane Dufour, CFO of the group, and so, as mentioned by Jacques, I will take you through the group financial performance for the fourth quarter and twelve months period, ending on thirty-first of March, 2024. You can have all the reconciliation to the nearest, IFRS metrics, including into the appendix. Let's move to slide 9 for the adjusted P&L related to our fourth quarter. We are very pleased to report here another solid quarter with significant progress across the business. Tax-free shopping solutions and payments reported sales in-store increased by EUR 6.5 billion, an increase of 32% versus Q4 last year. Group revenue increased by 21% to EUR 105 million.

Turning to Adjusted EBITDA, we have delivered a significant improvement of 60% to EUR 34 million, resulting in an increase of around eight points in the Adjusted EBITDA margin to 32.2%, with a 69% drop-through. Finally, we recorded an Adjusted net income for the group of EUR 2 million, versus a negative EUR 1 million in Q4 last year. Let's turn to slide 10 now, to dig into the revenue performance. You can see here that we have delivered another strong quarter with significant growth across the business. As mentioned, we reached EUR 105 million revenue, representing a 21% increase versus the same period last year.

I will go into the details per division on the following slides, but you can see that tax-free shopping, solutions, payments, and post-purchase solutions contributed a further EUR 19 million in revenue during the period. Turning now to the revenue performance per division. Starting with tax-free shopping, accounting for 73% of our group revenue in Q4 this year. The division delivered a strong performance, with an increase in revenue of 23% on a reported basis to EUR 77 million. Revenue in Continental Europe increased by 16% to EUR 63 million, while revenue in Asia Pacific increased by 64% to EUR 14 million.

This strong performance reflects the ongoing recovery across all origin nationalities, with the reopening of Chinese border in January 2023 being the key driver of the revenue improvement, especially in Asia, where sales in stores of shoppers from mainland China has already recovered to 125% in Q4 versus 2019. And Jacques will cover this in more detail later. Turning now to payments. Payments accounted for 21% of our group revenue in Q4. This division also delivered a strong performance, with an increase in revenue of 23% on a reported basis to EUR 22 million, reflecting a strong performance across both business segments. Revenue in FX Solutions first increased by 27% to EUR 10 million, while revenue in acquiring business increased by 20% to EUR 12 million.

As with tax-free shopping solutions, payments is also benefiting from the ongoing recovery in the travel industry, along with new business wins. Turning now to Post-Purchase Solutions. This segment accounted for 6% of our group revenue in Q4. The division delivered a revenue growth of 3% on a reported basis to EUR 7 million in Q4. The revenue growth here is moderate, as we took the decision to move away from certain low-contribution carrier contracts in ZigZag, but the like-for-like contribution growth of the division after carrier cost is strong, at 31%. Turning now to adjusted EBITDA. The significant improvement in revenue, together with the ongoing focus on the cost base, led to a 60% increase in adjusted EBITDA in Q4 this year, with a 69% drop-through. We begin with our adjusted EBITDA, EUR 21 million last year.

Then, with the additional business contribution of EUR 40 million, fixed cost and foreign exchange impact of EUR 3 million, the group delivered an Adjusted EBITDA of EUR 34 million in Q4, with an increase in Adjusted EBITDA margin of almost eight points to 32.2%. Turning now to slide 15, for further details on net finance costs. Here we are showing there was an increase of EUR 5 million in net finance costs versus the same period last year. This is mainly due to an increase in interest cost of EUR 4 million, which is a result of an increase in interest rates to 8.3% during this period, versus 5.2% in the same period last year. Now, turning to the detail on the quarterly Adjusted EBITDA.

Here, we are showing the annualized adjusted EBITDA for the group based on the latest quarterly recovery. You can see here a steady and consistent improvement in the annualized quarterly adjusted EBITDA. Based on the latest recovery, the Q4, the annualized quarterly adjusted EBITDA is now at EUR 164 million. This is also a significant improvement in terms of margin, from 31.4%, in Q4 last year, and now we are at 37.8%, in Q4. Now, I will take you through the finance detail for the full year. Here, you can see the same positive trends as with the fourth quarter. Tax-free shopping solutions and payments reported sales in-store increased by EUR 26 billion, an increase of 41% versus 2022-2023.

Group revenue increased by 36% to EUR 122 million, versus EUR 312 million last year. Turning to adjusted EBITDA, benefiting from significant operating leverage, we have delivered a strong improvement of 91% to EUR 149 million, and in line with our stated guidance, with a 10-point improvement in margin to 35.2%. Finally, we recorded an adjusted net income for the group of EUR 27 million. Again, a significant improvement versus -EUR 8 million last year. Now, let's look at the revenue growth in the period. Again, we delivered a very strong performance with revenue growth of 36% in the year, reflecting a strong performance across the business.

So if we start with the revenue of last year at EUR 312 million, there was a strong growth in tax-free shopping solutions of EUR 83 million, with an increase in Europe of EUR 60 million and an increase in APAC of EUR 23 million. This strong performance is again reflective on the ongoing recovery across all origin nationalities. Payments also delivered strong revenue growth of EUR 21 million. And finally, post-purchase solution revenue increased by EUR 7 million. At the end, we land at a revenue of EUR 422 million for the year. Now, turning to contribution growth. Here, we are showing the contribution across the business, which is the marginal revenue less marginal variable cost. We have a contribution growth of 38%, which is in line with our revenue growth of 36%.

There is a good improvement in contribution by division, with EUR 69 million from tax-free shopping solution, EUR 13 million from payment, and EUR 7 million from post-purchase. Turning now to detail the evolution of our fixed cost. Here we are comparing our fixed cost in financial year 2023/2024 versus 2019/20. As a reminder, the business, our business benefits from high operating leverage due to 60% of our cost base being fixed. The fixed costs in 2019/20 were at EUR 159 million. The long-term cost savings done by the management during the COVID period resulted in a reduction in fixed cost of EUR 27 million.

Then, with the increased inflation of EUR 17 million, on a like-for-like basis, our fixed costs would be at EUR 148 million in 2023/2024, well below the reported numbers of EUR 173 million, which includes the scope effect of post-purchase solution and listing costs. As a reminder, we are targeting fixed costs to increase at a rate of approximately one point above inflation due to the ongoing investment in OpEx to support our growth ambition from 2025/2026. Turning now to the financial year adjusted EBITDA. Similar to Q4, here we are showing the detail of the full year, where we achieved, as mentioned before, 91% increase in adjusted EBITDA with a 64% drop through.

Starting with our adjusted EBITDA last year, which was EUR 78 million, if we look at the additional contribution of each business, we have a further EUR 87 million in 2023/2024. Then, considering the fixed cost at EUR 14 million, the scope effect of EUR 2 million and EUR 1 million for an exchange impact, the group delivered an adjusted EBITDA of EUR 149 million. As mentioned, an increase in adjusted EBITDA margin of 10 points to 35.2%. More detail now on our adjusted EBITDA. In 2019/2020, we reported an adjusted EBITDA at EUR 171 million. Then we take out the EUR 25 million impact from the abolishment of the Tax Free Shopping scheme in the UK in January 2021, which give us an adjusted EBITDA for 2019/2020 at EUR 145 million.

Then we have EUR 12 million of business won during the period, which, at the end, gives us an adjusted EBITDA at EUR 157 million in 2023/2024 on a like-for-like basis. Then we strip out listing costs and scope effects from post-purchase solution, which take us our reported adjusted EBITDA of EUR 149 million. So in effect, our current adjusted EBITDA of EUR 149 million is ahead of the 2019/2020 adjusted EBITDA of EUR 145 million when we restate from the UK impact. Moving to the net finance cost. Here, the net finance cost increased by EUR 14 million versus the same period last year, due to an increase of EUR 21 million in debt interest costs as a result of an interest rate increase from 3.67% to 7.05%.

This was offset by a decrease in other finance costs by EUR 8 million, with the previous period being impacted at that time by the foreign exchange losses related to Certares and Knighthead equity transaction, and also our supplemental shareholder facilities that have been reimbursed this year. In May of this year, we successfully repriced the debt, reducing the interest rate margin by 100 basis points on both the term loan and RCF to 4% and 3.5% respectively, from June 2024. This will result in an annualized interest cost of EUR 48 million at actual rates on the senior debt of EUR 610 million. Turning now on our cash flow statement.

After an Adjusted EBITDA of EUR 149 million, the level of CapEx was EUR 39 million in the period, and it's essentially related to technology development. You can see here a working capital of flow, outflow of EUR 3 million versus EUR 38 million last year, but I will cover that in detail on the next slide. After CapEx, working capital, and lease payments, we delivered a pre-tax and leveraged free cash flow of EUR 95 million, which is an increase of EUR 100 million year-on-year, supportive positive cash flow for the first time since COVID and in line with our historical performance. We have also paid a higher interest of EUR 56 million, and this is, as mentioned, mainly due to interest rate rise over the year.

Then, after income tax paid in the period, that give us a positive free cash flow of EUR 22 million versus negative EUR 32 million in the prior period. Finally, considering all the major movements, such as the EUR 44 million inflow from the strategic equity investment from Tencent during the year, and the EUR 25 million of costs related to the refinancing, which we completed in December, our net debt has decreased by EUR 27 million over the period. Turning now to the detail for the working capital dynamics. Here we are showing the variation between last year and this year. As a reminder, our working capital is driven by the timing of the refunds that we make to international travelers, and the timing of the VAT payment that we receive from merchants and tax authorities.

We typically refund travelers on average 30-45 days before we are paid by the merchant or the authorities. As a result, we experience cash flow seasonality throughout the year with a larger net working capital need during spring/summer, when international shoppers travel more frequently, followed by a working capital wind-down during autumn and winter months. As we have seen the travel industry recover, we have seen a significant increase in volume, which leads to a much higher working capital need last year. And now, as we are in a more settled environment, you can see this stabilize with a more balanced working capital need during spring and summer, followed by working capital excess during autumn, which has led for the year to a EUR 3 million outflow for this period 2023-2024.

As we assume more normalization in growth starting in 2025, 2026, we expect net working capital to be neutral on an annual basis. Turning now to an analysis of our net debt position. As of the thirty-first of March, 2024, our net financial debt amounted to EUR 523 million, including cash and cash equivalents at EUR 88 million. You can see here, there has been an ongoing improvement in the net leverage ratio from 6.5x from end of March 2023 to 3.4x at the end of March 2024.

As a reminder, in November 2023, we took the opportunity to renegotiate our senior debt to strengthen the balance sheet with the refinancing closing on the fifth of December, with a senior debt at EUR 610 million, with a maturity of seven years and a revolving credit facility at EUR 97.5 million. Turning now to the key takeaways to conclude this section. First, we are pleased to report the solid recovery with a significant increase in our revenue of 36% to EUR 422 million. Thanks to this strong revenue growth and the ongoing management of the cost base, we are pleased to report a strong improvement in the full year Adjusted EBITDA to EUR 149 million.

This is an increase of 91% of what has been reported last year, with a 64% drop-through. On that basis, if we annualize the Adjusted EBITDA based on the quarterly uncertain the group, this is an acceleration in Q4 at EUR 164 million. Furthermore, we delivered a pre-tax, uncertain, and leverage free cash flow of EUR 95 million, supporting positive cash flow for the first time since COVID and in line with our historical performance. We have also delivered a strong improvement in the net leverage ratio to 3.4 times and reiterate our objective of being below 2.5 times.

Finally, in May 2024, we successfully repriced our senior debt, with the interest rate margin reduced by 100 basis points on both the term loan and RCF to 4% and 3.5% respectively, with a EUR 6 million reduction in the annualized interest cost. This concludes the finance sections, and I will now hand over to Jacques to present the latest trends and the long-term growth driver for Global Blue.

Jacques Stern (CEO)

Thank you, Roxane. I will start by the latest trend. We can see that the sales in store volume for tax-free shopping in Europe has accelerated in April and May at 141 compared to 128. And we see that all major nationality have contributed to this acceleration. About Mainland China, I will come back in a minute to that. Look now to APAC, we see that the acceleration in April and May have been even more sizable than in Europe, at 223% versus 166% in Q4. And there also, we see that all nationality are contributing, in particular, Mainland China, which is accelerating from 125 to 190%.

And what we are seeing from that point of view is that, clearly, Chinese recovery is driven by APAC versus Europe, in particular, given the low yen in Japan, which drive consumer, in particular, affluent and, high net worth individual Chinese to Japan versus Europe. But all in all, we are seeing that both in Europe and in APAC, April and May has been very strong, versus Q3 and Q4. If we look now to the same data on April and May, but versus last year, we see that, the increase has been of 22% versus, 18% and 13% respectively in Q4 and Q3 for continental Europe.

Mainly driven by the increase of international shopper, of 20% and a stabilization in the average spend, which is, only increasing by 1%, the overall translated by 22% increase versus, last year. The main nationality contributing to this, 22% are GCC and mainland China, which are around 40%, but all nationality are positive. If we go now to the same analysis of, performance versus last year, but this time for APAC as a destination, you can see that there we have a triple digit increase in April and May, so an acceleration versus Q3 and Q4 at 118%, which is driven, mainly by, mainland China, but not only, at 268% increase.

In APAC, as a destination, we see the same trend, acceleration in terms of, number of international shopper versus last year, with 70% more travelers, and an average spend, which is there increasing by 15% versus flat in Europe, mainly driven by Chinese, which are coming to Japan and spending more, as I was mentioning just before. So in summary, the last two months have been very strong, which is a, a good news, versus our objective of EUR 200 million EBITDA for the year. So let's move now to the third section of this presentation, which is the achievement of the 2023-2024, which gives me the occasion to drive you through the long-term initiative.

Let's start first by Tax Free Shopping and the digitalization, which, as you know, remain one of the key initiatives in order to improve the performance. You may remember that the digitalization in the store is now mostly achieved. We are already at 99% this year, but we were also at 98% last year. So what means digitalization in the store is to roll out some differentiator that we have versus competition, namely Eligibility Detection and Secure Card Capture, in order to improve the Success Ratio. And you see there that we have continued to roll out those two differentiation. And you see on the right the positive impact on the Success Ratio of those two functionality.

I remind you that Eligibility Detection means to be able to recognize the consumer in the store through the bank of its card when it's paying, and trigger automatically a prompt to the shop staff. Secure Card Capture is the functionality which is enabled by the payment integration, like Adyen, for example, which allow the shop staff to use the same card which has been used for the payment, for the refund. Which they also improve the customer journey which translate into an improvement of the Success Ratio. Post-store, we have also continued to see some progress in terms of digitalization.

So digitalization in terms of export validation, now 84% of the volume is validated through a digital solution, but also to continue to improve the consumer interaction, which are fully digital through our Mobile Customer Care, which you may remember, also have the benefit in terms of improvement of Success Ratio. We are now at 84%. And last but not least, we have continued to pay more refund outside of refund point, so namely on card, which are captured directly in the store or through the Mobile Customer Care, which enable us to reduce the cost, in particular, the one that we pay at the airport.

To remind you that we have given this guidance, which is for every 10-point shift outside of the airport, we have a EUR 7 million benefit in terms of cost saving. This year, it has been around EUR 2.2 million. There also, as I was mentioning, you see the progress from 51% last year to 54%. So in all meaning, you see the progress that we have made in terms of digitalization, which translate into, as I was mentioning in my executive summary, a very strong improvement of the success ratio this year at 56% versus 52% last year. And this translate into now improvements which are very significant versus 2019 of 6-point. And if we go-...

In detail per nationality, that translates, for example, in American, from 22-point increase of the success ratio, which is now at 64%. Which means that it used to be at 42%, and basically more or less the same on all nationality. So all in all, as I was mentioning, 56% success ratio, which is an improvement of six points versus 2019-20. If I move now to the initiative in terms of commercial dynamic, they're also very strong successes. Of course, you remember that Global Blue is leader by far at 70% market share.

But more importantly, we have seen in the last five years an acceleration of our KPI in terms of net retention at 102.8% versus the same period 2014-2019 of 103%. And also the same improvement in terms of KPI, in terms of growth retention at 99.4% versus 96.3% in the previous period. And this translate even if we have not changed the guidance the 70% market share mark into gain of market share, which are sizable.

Here, we have given one example, which is Spain, where we have official data, which are given by the customs authority, where we can see that Global Blue has won almost 10 points of market share between 2019 and 2023, and we are now at a market share of 77%. And obviously, these successes in terms of digitalization and also commercial dynamics allow Global Blue to perform better than its competitor. You have here the figures of Global Blue recovery for the main three countries in Europe, where our main competitor is present.

You see that we have a gap versus the recovery of our competitor, which is around 50-55 point, depending on the country, which is the direct impact of our digitalization, which translate into more Success Ratio, which improve the recovery, but also the gain of new clients, and all of that translate into a very big gap with our competitor in terms of level of recovery, which is very good news. If we move now to our second line of business, payment, in particular with the FX Solutions, there are also a very healthy situation in terms of net retention rate, 104.8%. You have a couple of logos here, which give you the main wins for the last two years.

I will not comment more than that, but also, as I was mentioning, a very healthy situation in terms of FX solution. If I move now, on the second line of business for payment, which is the Hospitality Gateway. There are also, a very strong performance, during the year. We have signed, 5 acquirer, during the year, with more than 350 hotel, which has been rolled out, as you can see on the left. And, equally importantly, we have signed, 5 more acquirer, during the last quarter of the financial year, which will start in terms of rollout during the next financial year, 2024, 2025. So ensuring a continuous, growth for this new initiative of Hospitality Gateway.

So in summary, a very strong year in terms of achievement, which is a good transition for the long-term guidance. So here, we just reiterate what we have announced in September 2023, which is for 2024, 2025, an EBITDA of more than EUR 200 million, with a CapEx investment of EUR 40 million-EUR 45 million. And for the long term, i.e., post 2025, 2026, a long-term target in terms of revenue between 8%-12%, with 50% drop-through revenue to EBITDA, and the same guidance in terms of CapEx between 40%-45%. In terms of net working capital, as mentioned by Roxane, a neutral working capital on annual basis, even though we have a seasonality with summer.

In terms of tax rate, an effective tax rate, which will go down with the increase of the EBITDA to 24%-26% rate. And as also mentioned by Roxane, an objective of leverage, which is below 2.5. So let me give you two or three snapshots on this long-term guidance, starting first by tax-free shopping. You know this slide, but it's quite important to reiterate how we can deliver this 8%-12% growth in terms of revenue. It starts first by tax-free shopping, by the volume growth, where basically our guidance is 10%-14%, which is a combination of multi-driver coming from the market, 6%-8%. The dynamics in terms of new market opening, 1.5%-2%.

Digitalization just drive you to the impact of the Success Ratio, which was very strong this year, 4 point, which was translating into 8% increase or contribution to the increase of the revenue this year, which was a fantastic year. We are more moderate in our guidance versus the 8%. We bracket only guide to a 2%-2.5% increase of volume coming from digitalization, and also Net Retention, where we guide by 0.5-1.5.

So a combination of growth driver, which are in line with the long-term trend that we have delivered in the last 10 years before COVID, which are also consistent with what has been delivered in 2023, 2024. Moving to the Tax Free Shopping revenue, there also we are guiding to a revenue growth of 7%-11% from the volume growth of 10%-14%, because of two element. First, pricing pressure of 1.3%, and secondly, a mixed effect of 1.7%.

There also elements which are in line with previous period that you have on the left side of the charts, with the exception of the pricing, where we have seen that thanks to our differentiation that we have rolled out, namely the payment integration, but also the Mobile Customer Care, we have been able to reduce the pressure on the price. Delivering even this year and only 50 basis points decrease from the pricing, but nevertheless, we are continuing to guide with this 1.3% pricing impact for the long term. So in summary, from this 10%-14% volume increase, we translate the guidance in terms of revenue increase for Tax Free Shopping to 7%-11%.

For the FX solution, there also same, I would say, element. First, a multi-driver growth, which lead to a 9%-13% volume and revenue growth. No impact between volume and revenue in the FX solution. And they also multi-driver, as I was mentioning, the market, but also the signature of new acquirer, cross-selling of existing solution to existing acquirer, and more penetration, which are very much in line with what we have delivered in the past. So this slide also conclude the presentation, and basically, it's just a reminder of the fact that Global Blue is well-hedged against the risk of inflation but also recession.

I remind you that during the last year, we have been able to benefit from the luxury brand price increase, which were higher than the inflation of the cost, which has been one of the benefit for Global Blue, explaining the recovery, which is well above 2019. But also an element which is important is in a recession environment, Global Blue, in the past, during the great financial crisis, but in other crises also, have demonstrated a resilience versus the luxury market and also the travel industry. The main reason for that being the fact that Global Blue is more skewed to high-net-worth individual and affluent consumer, which are less, I would say, sensitive to economic shock, which can be named inflation or which can be named recession.

So with that in mind, just to remind you that we are at your disposal with Roxane to have any one-on-one meeting in the coming days. Thank you very much for your listening.

Roxane Meyer (CFO)

Thank you.