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Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 revenue of $0.674B grew 13% YoY and beat Wall Street consensus by ~10% ($0.615B), while Primary EPS of $0.068 also exceeded expectations; margins compressed as CWT’s lower-margin mix stepped down adjusted EBITDA margin to 19% * *.
  • Management raised and narrowed FY 2025 guidance to revenue of $2.705–$2.725B and adjusted EBITDA of $523–$533M; free cash flow was lowered to $90–$110M on the cash impact of the CWT acquisition .
  • Execution highlights: CWT closed on Sept 2; $155M net cost synergies identified with $55M targeted in 2025–2026; SAP Concur alliance and next-gen Egencia/Agencia T&E launch in Q1 2026; digital transactions reached 82%, adjusted gross profit margin 60% .
  • Key stock narrative catalysts: visible top-line uplift from CWT not yet reflected in consensus, synergy delivery path, AI-driven margin expansion, and preliminary 2026 outlook (19–21% revenue growth; $615–$645M adjusted EBITDA) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “We delivered outstanding results… TTV grew 23%, revenue growth accelerated to 13%, adjusted gross profit margin was 60%… and we generated $38M of free cash flow” .
  • CWT integration on track with $155M net cost synergies identified and $55M scheduled across 2025–2026; leverages proven M&A playbook (HRG, Egencia/Egencia) .
  • SAP Concur alliance: co-developing “Complete” flagship T&E solution; Egencia/Agencia integration into Concur Expense; first customers launched with AI-driven UX and content advantages .

What Went Wrong

  • Adjusted EBITDA margin fell 70 bps YoY to 19% and free cash flow declined to $38M, reflecting the near-term impact of CWT’s lower-margin mix and integration-related costs .
  • Core revenue yield declined ~40 bps YoY, driven by prior-year baseline and the continued shift to higher digital mix; management emphasized H2 lens vs quarterly noise .
  • FY 2025 free cash flow guidance cut by $50M to $90–$110M due to CWT cash impact, despite core FCF underpin remaining strong ($210M excluding one-time M&A cash costs) .

Financial Results

Quarterly Trend (sequential)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$621 $631 $674
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$75 $15 $(62)
Primary EPS ($USD)$0.16 $0.03 $0.068*
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$141 $133 $128
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)23% 21% 19%
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$26 $27 $38

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Q3 YoY Comparison

MetricQ3 2024Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$597 $674
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$347 $388
Adjusted Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$360 $404
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$118 $128
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)20% 19%
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$59 $38
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$(128) $(62)

KPIs and Operating Drivers

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Transaction Value (TTV) ($USD Billions)$8.349 $7.891 $9.5
Transaction Growth (%)3% — (disclosed) 19% (incl. CWT)
Adjusted Gross Profit Margin (%)——60%
Digital Transactions Share (%)81% —82%
LTM Total New Wins Value ($USD Billions)$3.2 $3.2 $3.2
LTM Customer Retention (%)96% 95% 95% (ex-CWT)
Net Debt / LTM Adjusted EBITDA (x)1.7x 1.6x 1.9x

Q3 Segments (YoY growth)

Segment MetricQ3 2025
Travel Revenue Growth YoY (%)10%
Product & Professional Services Revenue Growth YoY (%)23%

Q3 2025 Actuals vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)

MetricConsensusActual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$614.7*$674
Primary EPS ($USD)$0.0199*$0.0679*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global. Management noted CWT was not reflected in sell-side consensus .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD Billions)FY 2025$2.38–$2.48 $2.705–$2.725 Raised
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2025$480–$540 $523–$533 Raised/Narrowed
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)FY 2025$120–$160 $90–$110 Lowered (CWT cash impact)

Preliminary FY 2026: revenue growth 19–21%; adjusted EBITDA $615–$645M (+16–22% YoY) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ1 2025 (prior)Q2 2025 (prior)Q3 2025 (current)Trend
AI/digital productivity81% digital; traveler care productivity +7%; pushing own platforms Neo/Egencia Efficiency gains; margin expansion continued 82% digital; 60% adj. gross profit margin; AI Assist users +40% QoQ; 40% of calls AI-assisted; hotel rate cap savings ~$60/booking Strengthening adoption and margin leverage
SAP Concur allianceNot disclosedDOJ dismissal of CWT; guidance raised; alliance not yet announced “Complete” co-developed; Egencia/Agencia integrated to Concur Expense; first customers launched New strategic growth lever
Macro/business travel demandWeaker but stable; flat transactions baseline; Meetings & Events +2% events, +8% spend Sequential improvement in July; H2 transaction growth midpoint 2% Improved demand; core organic growth uptick into Q4; TTV +23% Stabilizing to modest improvement
CWT integration & synergiesAmended merger terms, reduced stock consideration; target leverage intact Closing expected Q3; DOJ case dismissed Closed Sept 2; $155M net cost synergies; $55M in 2025–2026; leverage 1.9x Realized; synergy delivery underway
SME momentumSME growth slower; new wins $2.3B LTM Retention 95% LTM; continued share gains SME new wins $2.2B ex-CWT; alliance access to SAP’s SME base (80% of SAP customers) Pipeline strengthening via alliance
Revenue yieldDown ~8 bps in Q1 on digital mix Modest decline in Q2 Core revenue yield down 40 bps YoY from baseline; H2 lens emphasized Expected gradual compression offset by margins

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “We have multiple levers for growth… closed CWT, strategic alliance with SAP Concur… next-gen Agencia/Egencia T&E in Q1 2026… significant long-term opportunity for consistent double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth” .
  • CFO: “Adjusted gross profit margin was 60%… adjusted EBITDA margin at 19% reflects CWT impact; excluding CWT, margin up 40 bps; core margin expansion 120 bps YTD” .
  • CEO on AI: “Agencia/Egencia chat powered by AI drove a 23% reduction in human intervention… AI hotel dynamic rate cap delivers ~$60 savings per booking… 85% of hotels chosen from top 10 AI-driven display” .
  • CFO on synergies: “$155M net cost synergies; tracking to $55M in 2025–2026, split $5M and $50M” .
  • CFO on FCF: “We now expect $90–$110M; excluding CWT cash impact and ~$60M one-time M&A cash, underlying ~ $210M” .

Q&A Highlights

  • 2026 outlook: management “cautiously optimistic” on organic improvement; meetings/events forward bookings up double-digit into 2026 .
  • SAP Concur partnership: expected to accelerate SME growth via access to large installed base; deeper product co-development and integrated user experience .
  • CWT technology and synergies: focus on hotel tools and travel counselor productivity; synergy case purely cost (net $155M), with potential but unmodeled revenue cross-sell .
  • AI competitive channel: agentic AI expected to be an important, integrated servicing channel across chat/voice, leveraging GBTG’s data and stack .
  • Guidance clarifications: CWT not included in consensus; Q4 assumptions include U.S. gov’t shutdown impacts and domestic travel trends .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 revenue and EPS both beat consensus: $674M vs $614.7M and $0.0679 vs $0.0199, respectively; incremental CWT contribution not in sell-side numbers per CFO *.
  • Implications: Near-term estimate revisions likely upward for revenue, with EBITDA and margin trajectories adjusted for CWT mix and integration phasing; FY 2025 FCF reset reflects acquisition cash dynamics*.

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Top-line momentum accelerated on CWT close; consensus likely under-modeling CWT contribution in near term, creating positive revision risk .
  • Margin compression is transitory; synergy execution ($155M), AI/digital leverage (60% adjusted gross profit margin) and mix optimization underpin a return to and surpassing prior margin levels .
  • Strategic SAP Concur alliance expands distribution and strengthens SME growth flywheel ahead of Q1 2026 product launches—supports medium-term double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth narrative .
  • Cash conversion remains strong ex-CWT one-time effects; underlying core FCF of ~ $210M indicates durable cash generation even as integration proceeds .
  • Watch Q4 dynamics: modeled government shutdown impact and domestic travel trends; any resolution/upside could further support sequential organic improvement .
  • 2026 prelim guide anchors medium-term targets (19–21% revenue growth, $615–$645M adjusted EBITDA); investor day in March 2026 should detail AI efficiencies and synergy cadence .
  • Near-term trading: positive setup on beat/raise, with stock catalysts tied to synergy milestones, AI metrics (digital/Agencia/Egencia adoption), and Concur alliance commercialization; balance against temporary margin step-down and FCF reset .