GCT Semiconductor Holding - Earnings Call - Q1 2025

Executive Summary

• Q1 2025 reflected the trough of GCT’s 4G-to-5G transition: revenue fell 84.8% YoY to $0.50M, gross margin compressed to 17.7%, and diluted EPS was $(0.15), with results primarily driven by no 5G platform shipments and very low 4G product volume.
• Results missed thin Wall Street consensus: revenue of $0.50M versus $1.87M estimate and EPS of $(0.15) versus $(0.10) estimate; miss drivers were explicitly tied to the lack of 5G shipments and low product volumes in the quarter (service margin ~50% vs product margin ~-120%). S&P Global consensus values marked with an asterisk below.
• Management confirmed 5G sampling starts end of May and expects volume shipments to increase through Q3 and Q4 2025; 5G ASPs are targeted at ~4x 4G, with mix expected to lift revenue and gross margin in 2H25 as the ramp begins.
• Financing flexibility increased via a newly filed shelf registration (up to $200M) including a $75M ATM, while liquidity at quarter-end was tight (cash ~$1.0M), underscoring funding execution as a key near-term watch item.
• Potential stock catalysts: on-time execution of May sampling, early customer wins (e.g., Orbic LOI with Verizon-certified module), visible 2H25 shipment trajectory, and evidence that OpEx will not scale with revenue as 5G ramps.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • “Finalized 5G chipsets” in hand; customer sampling “at the end of May” with volume shipments expected to increase through Q3–Q4, marking a pivotal inflection toward monetization.
  • Management highlighted targeted 5G pricing power—ASPs “approximately four times” 4G—supporting a path to higher revenue and improved gross margins in 2H25.
  • Strategic channel progress: LOI with Orbic to develop a Verizon-certified 5G module for mobile hotspot and FWA gateway, with multi-operator ambitions; cited as a multi-product, multi-region opportunity in the Q&A.

• What Went Wrong

  • Material top-line downside: Q1 revenue fell to $0.50M from $3.27M YoY; management tied the decline primarily to zero 5G platform shipments and lower service activity versus Q1 2024 (which had two 5G platform shipments).
  • Gross margin pressure: consolidated GM fell to 17.7% as low product volumes produced roughly -120% product margin (service ~50%), indicating unfavorable absorption at minimal scale.
  • Liquidity remains constrained (cash ~$1.0M), and the company is relying on external financing capacity (shelf/ATM) to bridge to the 2H ramp, elevating funding and dilution risk until 5G revenue materializes.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good afternoon. Thank you for attending GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc's First Quarter 2025 Financial Results Call. All lines will be muted during the presentation portion of the call, with an opportunity for questions and answers at the end. Joining the call today are John Schlaefer, GCT's Chief Executive Officer, and Edmond Cheng, CFO, to discuss the first quarter 2025 results. During this call, certain statements we make will be forward-looking. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in our safe harbor provision for forward-looking statements that can be found at the end of our earnings press release and also in our Form 10Q that will be filed today, which provide further detail about the risks related to our business. Additionally, except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement. I will now turn the call over to John Schlaefer.

John Schlaefer (CEO)

Thank you, and thanks to everyone for joining us today for our first quarter 2025 earnings call. I'll focus my remarks on our 5G chipset and important partnership updates within our 2025GCT - Year of 5G program. Edmond, our CFO, will provide details for our first quarter financial disclosure. Without any further delay, I am pleased to say that we've officially begun the 5G product era here at GCT. As I used the one-yard line analogy during last quarter's earnings call, we are officially in the end zone. As a result of our focused efforts under the 2025GCT - Year of 5G program, we are currently evaluating our finalized 5G chipset in our own lab facilities. This is following successful acceleration and completion of our production milestones through early May.

This marks a monumental milestone for us here at GCT, a binary catalyst, as we are moving directly to 5G customer sampling starting this month, which will then lead to volume shipments in Q3 and beyond. Within our 2025GCT - Year of 5G program, we have also further accelerated and prioritized our partnership and customer programs that are focused on 5G. On our last earnings call, I already mentioned that we have taken action to accelerate the ongoing announced and unannounced programs with world-renowned partners like Globalstar, European tier one telco supplier Aramco Digital, Samsung, and Kyocera. Additionally, we have recently signed a letter of intent with Orbic North America to jointly develop and supply a mobile hotspot and FWA gateway utilizing a Verizon-certified 5G module based on our new 5G chipset.

The LOI outlines the framework for collaboration between the parties, including terms related to volume purchase for supply to Verizon and other operators. Before I turn the microphone over to Edmond, I do want to stress again how pivotal this moment is for us here at GCT. The 5G chipset is now becoming available and is finding its way into our customers' products. While we expect certain use cases to continue to benefit from our advanced 4G solutions, we are fully focused on driving sales for our 5G chipsets. I expect Edmond to have a very different story to tell regarding our income statement in our future earnings call. With that, Edmond.

Edmond Cheng (CFO)

Thank you, John. As John said, we are incredibly excited about the impact 5G will have to our company and specifically to our income statement and balance sheet starting from the second half of the year. In the meantime, and until we see that impact coming through, I want to remind all listeners that we are reporting the transitional 4G results. They are not in all representative of what we are expecting in the second half of the year. Once 5G chipset sales are occurring, we anticipate that the average selling price of our 5G chipset will be approximately four times higher than that of our current 4G offerings. As we focus on sampling and launching our 5G chipsets, we have fully aligned our internal resources with this strategic priority, including our marketing and sales teams' focus on new business development activities in building the potential pipelines.

Turning now to our first quarter 2025 financial results, further details can be found in the 10-Q that will be on file with the SEC. Net revenues decreased by $2.8 million, or 85%, from $3.3 million for the three months ended March 31st, 2024, to $0.5 million for the three months ended March 31st, 2025. The reduction was primarily attributable to a decrease of $2.3 million in product sales and a decrease of $0.5 million in service revenue. The decrease was due to no 5G platform shipments in the first fiscal quarter of 2025, as compared to two 5G platform shipments in the first fiscal quarter of 2024, which account for most of the differences. Again, when modeling our expected upcoming 5G revenue, we will be benefited from both higher global market demand and market prices in the 5G chip market.

Cost of net revenues decreased by $0.9 million, or 69%, from $1.3 million for the three months ended March 31st, 2024, to $0.4 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025. This decrease in the cost of net revenues was driven primarily by the reduction of our product sales and involvement in service projects. Once our 5G chipsets have been launched, we expect new service revenues in terms of NRE in assisting our customers in their product development projects in using our 5G chipsets. Our gross margin decreased to 18% for the three months ended March 31, 2025, from 60% for the three months ended March 31, 2024. The gross margin for our service business was at 50.4%. This gross margin for our product sales was at -120%, mainly due to the low volume of product sales, which cannot cover the overhead costs.

Our gross margin is distorted by the low volume of product sales, which makes it less indicative of the underlying profitability of our future product sales, especially for the upcoming 5G products. Nevertheless, we are actively exploring measures to improve operational efficiencies and look forward to restoring product sales and service project volume with 5G. Research and development expenses decreased by $1.4 million, or 26%, from $5.5 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024, to $4.1 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025. This decrease was primarily due to $1.3 million related to project-specific intellectual property expenses incurred during the first fiscal quarter of 2024. Sales and marketing expenses increased by $0.1 million, or 12%, from $1 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024, to $1.1 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025.

This increase was primarily due to personnel-related and other costs. General and administrative expenses decreased by $0.2 million, or 8%, from $2.8 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024, to $2.6 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025. This decrease was primarily due to a $0.7 million reduction in stock-based compensation related to the vesting of performance-based funded shares in the first fiscal quarter of 2024, partially offset by a $0.3 million increase in business liability insurance premiums and $0.2 million increase in personnel-related costs driven by our transition to public company operations during the first fiscal quarter of 2024. We've closed the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1 million. We also had net accounts receivable of $4.5 million and net inventory of $3.1 million.

As we advance towards securing external financing, our recently filed shelf registration provides up to $200 million in capacity, including a $75 million at-the-market facility, which will significantly enhance the company's financial flexibility and expand our available funding options. With this, I will turn it back over to John.

John Schlaefer (CEO)

Thanks, Edmond. In closing, we are thrilled about what is ahead of us. With the announcement of our 5G chipset availability under our 2025GCT - Year of 5G program, we are in the final stages of putting the product, customer, and financial building blocks in place for substantial growth based on our 5G chipset launch. We are excited about the impact of that for our company and for our stock, as we value all of our shareholders. Finally, I would like to thank our employees, partners, and our customers for their continued efforts and dedication to the company, which ultimately drives our success as an organization. Together, we are focused on driving innovation, supporting the global transition to 5G solutions, and delivering strong, profitable growth. We are entering a new phase here at GCT and are thrilled to have you with us.

I will now turn the call back over to the operator, who will assist us in taking your questions.

Operator (participant)

As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question at this time, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Craig Ellis with B. Riley Securities.

Craig Ellis (Analyst)

Thanks, team, for taking the questions and congratulations on continued 5G progress. John, I wanted to start just by following up on one of the newer announcements that the company has made, the announcement with Orbic on the 5G mobile hotspot for Verizon. Can you just talk a little bit more about how that relationship will proceed going forward and what you would expect for the second half of 2025 and 2026, even at a high level, for what might be possible in terms of what you'd be able to do with that partnership and what you'd be able to ship?

John Schlaefer (CEO)

Yeah, thanks, Craig. Yeah, so we're excited about the Orbic relationship. As you know, they're a major supplier into Verizon right now in the mid-tier space. We expect to be a part of that actually going forward. The plan, and not just for Verizon, but they're working with other operators around the world. I think that we'll be sampling them as part of the activities for this quarter. They will go through their normal process of implementing that in their device. We'll be working with them. I think we mentioned in our announcement that this will be module-based. We'll go through the process of actually providing them a module that we'll work on together. Also, we'll be working on hotspot and FWA gateway together, for multiple operators. We're going to have to take this a step at a time.

I don't want to get over our skis here, but we're very excited about this as we go into the second half of the year and 2026.

Craig Ellis (Analyst)

Yeah, so the bottom line, though, is that this is something that's multi-product and looks like it can be multi-region for you. Without specifying specific volume numbers, there's a number of angles that the company can engage with the product set with this one partner.

John Schlaefer (CEO)

I'm sorry.

Craig Ellis (Analyst)

Moving on.

John Schlaefer (CEO)

Yeah.

Craig Ellis (Analyst)

Oh, that was just my reflection back, John.

John Schlaefer (CEO)

Yeah, yeah. I agree with you.

Craig Ellis (Analyst)

Yeah. Yeah. Moving on, can you talk a little bit more about the sampling that commences in the second half of this quarter for 5G? Sounds like Orbic may be one of the entities, but any color there? Related to that, I think the company conveyed that we'll be moving into commercial shipments in the second half of the year. Can you talk a little bit more about the breadth of that activity and what we can expect?

John Schlaefer (CEO)

Yeah, so we've been talking about our work with our alpha customers for a long time. We've done announcements about those engagements over the last six months. There are six customers, in particular, that we'll be sampling first as actually primary activities. Very shortly after that, and even in this quarter, there will be others that we'll be sampling. Each one is going to have their own product focus. Each one is going to have their own schedule. We'll be working with as many as we can, as fast as we can, to move forward into the second half and then beyond that.

Craig Ellis (Analyst)

Yeah, sounds good. Two more for me. First one's probably more for you. The second one probably for Edmond. As you get ready for the volume ramp in the second half of the year, obviously, you've had a supply chain in place for some time, but now we're turning the knobs a little bit as we get ready for 5G. How are you feeling about your supply chain's capability to move into volume production around the corner?

John Schlaefer (CEO)

I think we've—I mean, this is—we've been doing this with 4G for a long time now. This is just a different product on the same supply line and the same relationship. I think that our supply partners are ready for this and are very excited about this as well.

Craig Ellis (Analyst)

Great. Lastly, Edmond, for you, help a color as you went through the income statement, especially with some of the specifics and OpEx. As we think about the general arc of things as we move into more intensive sampling and then volume shipments, anything that we should have our eye on with the OpEx line items in Q2 or the second half of the year? Thanks, team.

Edmond Cheng (CFO)

Hi, Craig. Thank you for the question. As we look into the second half of the year and looking at our OpEx line, we do not expect our OpEx will run up the same type of scale as what our revenue will be in the second half. At this point of time, most of the major investment in R&D has been done in our 5G chip. We will be running the cost as we usually will do from that sense. We have a very tight cost control process in place.

Craig Ellis (Analyst)

Got it. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question at this time, please press star one one on your touch-tone phone. I'm showing no further questions in queue at this time. That will conclude today's question-and-answer session. Thank you for joining us. That concludes our first quarter 2025 conference call. A replay will be available for a limited time.