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GREEN DOT CORP (GDOT)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 delivered solid acceleration: GAAP revenue rose 24% year over year to $455.0M, non‑GAAP revenue grew 25%, and adjusted EBITDA increased 70% with margin expanding to 9.7%; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.09 vs. $(0.45) in Q4’23, and non‑GAAP EPS was $0.40 vs. $0.14 .
  • Management highlighted first positive YoY active account growth in almost four years, driven by B2B momentum and moderating retail declines; Q4 consolidated active accounts reached 3.67M vs. 3.57M in Q4’23 .
  • FY2025 guidance targets non‑GAAP revenue of $1.85–$1.90B (+10% YoY mid‑point) and adjusted EBITDA of $145–$155M (–9% mid‑point) with non‑GAAP EPS of $1.05–$1.20; softness in Consumer Services is the primary driver of the EBITDA outlook .
  • Strategic partnerships and embedded finance traction (Varo, Clip Money, DolFinTech, Marqeta) reinforce the Arc platform thesis and expand cash/money‑movement capabilities, a potential narrative support for the stock despite consumer headwinds .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well
    • B2B-led growth and margin expansion: Non‑GAAP revenue +25% YoY and adjusted EBITDA +70% YoY in Q4, with 200+ bps margin expansion, reflecting improved momentum and easier comps vs. last year’s elevated transaction/dispute costs .
    • Active account inflection: “Average active accounts were up 3% year‑over‑year, marking the first quarter in year‑over‑year active account growth in almost 4 years” (CEO) .
    • Embedded finance pipeline and wins: Management cited strong BaaS demand and new partners (PLS launch impact; DolFinTech, Clip Money, Marqeta) supporting the Arc platform’s value proposition and 2025 growth areas .
  • What Went Wrong
    • Consumer Services headwinds: Ongoing secular pressure in retail and risk‑related account blocks weighed on consumer trends; management expects consumer revenue to decline mid‑ to upper single digits in 2025 and consumer margins comparable to 2023 .
    • 2025 EBITDA guide below 2024: Despite revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA guided down (~–9% at mid‑point) driven “primarily due to continued headwinds in our Consumer Services segment” (CFO) .
    • Money Movement mixed: Core cash processing tied to GDOT’s own active base remains pressured (offset partly by double‑digit growth in third‑party cash transfers) .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions, GAAP)$366.0 $409.7 $455.0
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$(0.45) $(0.15) $0.09
Non‑GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.14 $0.13 $0.40
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$25.7 $28.3 $43.8
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)7.1% 7.0% 9.7%
Vs. EstimatesN/A (SPGI consensus unavailable)*N/A (SPGI consensus unavailable)*N/A (SPGI consensus unavailable)*

*Consensus via S&P Global was not retrievable due to a request‑limit error; estimate comparisons are unavailable at this time.

Segment revenues (Non‑GAAP)

Segment Revenue ($USD Millions)Q4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Consumer Services$111.5 $98.0 $107.2
B2B Services$221.8 $276.4 $312.1
Money Movement Services$29.4 $31.9 $29.7
Corporate & Other$(1.0) $(0.3) $2.7
Total Segment Revenues$361.7 $406.0 $451.7

Segment profit (Adjusted EBITDA)

Segment Profit ($USD Millions)Q4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Consumer Services$37.7 $39.4 $54.8
B2B Services$18.5 $27.7 $27.3
Money Movement Services$9.5 $12.7 $8.7
Corporate & Other$(40.0) $(51.5) $(47.0)
Total Segment Profit (Adj. EBITDA)$25.7 $28.3 $43.8

KPIs

KPIQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Consolidated Active Accounts (M)3.57 3.46 3.67
Gross Dollar Volume ($USD Billions)$26.36 $33.47 $35.28
Purchase Volume ($USD Billions)$5.27 $4.89 $5.15
Consumer Active Accounts (M)2.05 1.78 1.88
B2B Active Accounts (M)1.52 1.68 1.79
Money Movement: Cash Transfers (M)8.19 8.22 8.14

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Non‑GAAP Total Operating RevenuesFY 2025N/A$1.85B – $1.90B; ~+10% YoY mid‑point First issuance
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025N/A$145M – $155M; ~–9% YoY mid‑point First issuance
Non‑GAAP EPSFY 2025N/A$1.05 – $1.20 (22% tax rate; 55.9M diluted shares) First issuance
B2B Revenue GrowthFY 2025N/ALow‑20% for year; ~30% 1H then moderating First issuance
Consumer RevenueFY 2025N/AMid‑ to upper‑single‑digit decline; margins ≈ 2023 First issuance
Money Movement RevenueFY 2025N/ALow single‑digit growth First issuance
Corporate Revenue/ExpensesFY 2025N/A~+$10M revenue from portfolio repositioning; corporate expenses +mid‑single‑digit First issuance

Notes: FY2025 EPS bridge: Adjusted EBITDA $145–$155M; D&A ~$62M (ex‑intangible amort.), net interest expense ~$7.9M; tax ~22%; diluted shares 55.9M .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Q‑2)Q3 2024 (Q‑1)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
Compliance/RegulatoryFinal consent order addressed; stepped‑up investments in AML/BSA, fraud, internal audit; spend up vs. 2022 by $15–$20M Continued investments, now part of ongoing spend; selective pipeline with compliance as advantage Ongoing investments; corporate expenses up mid‑single digits; compliance seen as competitive edge with partners Elevated but stabilizing; strategic advantage
Embedded Finance/ArcRenewed largest BaaS partner; pipeline doubled; positioning Arc as competitive platform Launched Arc brand; strong pipelines; 2024 B2B growth in mid‑30% New wins and partnerships (DolFinTech, Clip, Marqeta); B2B growth continuing into 2025 Strengthening
Consumer/RetailRetail channel under pressure; direct stabilizing; PLS launch expected to help H2 Retail declines moderated; PLS improving actives; consumer margins up YoY in Q4 Retail headwinds persist; consumer revenue down in 2025; UX refresh and platform consolidation underway Stabilizing but pressured
Staffing vertical (PayCard)Staffing headwinds weighing on actives; pricing offset some pressure Continued staffing weakness; onetime cost benefits in Q3 Still weak but transaction loss reductions helped profitability Ongoing headwind
Money Movement (GDN/Tax)Strong tax season; third‑party GDN growth Tax modestly up; third‑party cash transfers up double‑digits Low‑single‑digit growth outlook; third‑party strength offsetting own base softness Improving mix
Deposits/InterestSeasonal deposit impacts; interest income down YoY Optimization improved yields; corporate revenue to rise on rate changes Deposit growth from B2B and PLS; portfolio repositioning to floating‑rate assets Positive balance sheet levers

Management Commentary

  • “Adjusted revenue was up 25% year‑over‑year while adjusted EBITDA was up 70% with over 200 basis points of margin expansion… average active accounts were up 3% year‑over‑year, marking the first quarter in year‑over‑year active account growth in almost 4 years.” — George Gresham, CEO .
  • “Though our 2025 guidance indicates a decline in adjusted EBITDA, this is primarily due to continued headwinds in our Consumer Services segment. Nevertheless, I remain optimistic about the potential for continued growth in our B2B and Money Movement segments.” — Jess Unruh, CFO .
  • “We’re signing significant new partners… DolFinTech… PLS… new GDN partners including Varo and Clip Money, and Marqeta… pipelines up over 50% YoY and up 120% in 2 years.” — Chris Ruppel, CRO .
  • “We are upgrading the user experience for both our direct‑to‑consumer product, GO2bank and our retail products… consolidating technology platforms… new capabilities late 2025 and 2026.” — George Gresham .

Q&A Highlights

  • Macro sensitivity in guide: Range contemplates inflation impacting ticket sizes/interchange and yield curve effects on interest income .
  • Consumer margin rebuild: Shift retail to FSC channel (higher direct‑deposit penetration), retire legacy platforms, refresh UX for GO2bank/retail, then add new features; expect longer‑term margin improvement .
  • Pipeline/partners: Mix of competitive takeaways and greenfield across FS, wallets, SMB/gig; focus on disciplined onboarding with compliance at the forefront; opportunity not pipeline‑constrained .
  • Deposits and revenue: Deposit growth primarily from B2B (and PLS), supporting earnings/platform fees; portfolio optimization to extract more yield .
  • Regulatory posture: Continued close engagement with the Fed; compliance central to culture; partner diligence on bank providers remains heightened and is a competitive differentiator .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus from S&P Global was not retrievable at this time due to a request‑limit error, so we cannot provide quantitative beat/miss analysis for Q4 2024. Management characterized results as in line with expectations, and 2025 guidance embeds consumer headwinds offset by B2B and Money Movement growth .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • B2B/embedded finance is the growth engine; continued partner wins and expanding cash services (e.g., DolFinTech, Clip Money, Marqeta) bolster the Arc platform narrative and deposit growth runway .
  • Consumer remains a drag into 2025; execution focus on FSC distribution, UX refresh, and platform consolidation is critical to re‑accelerate growth/margins in that segment .
  • 2025 guide implies revenue growth but EBITDA compression; mix and consumer headwinds drive margin outlook — monitor cadence (mid‑teens revenue growth in 1H, moderating in Q4 per management) .
  • Balance sheet optimization (floating‑rate portfolio) and deposit growth can add revenue resiliency; corporate revenue +~$10M expected from repositioning .
  • Risk costs and dispute losses were a major swing factor YoY; controls improved — sustainment of lower loss rates is a potential earnings lever .
  • Compliance investments remain elevated but are becoming a competitive advantage with large‑brand partners under stricter vendor diligence .
  • Unencumbered holding‑company cash of ~$86M provides additional flexibility (as of 12/31/24) .

Non‑GAAP Adjustments (Impact and Color)

  • Non‑GAAP EPS ($0.40) and non‑GAAP net income ($22.2M) adjust for items such as stock‑based comp ($5.9M), amortization of intangibles ($5.0M), impairment charges ($3.6M), legal settlements ($0.9M), losses in equity method investments ($3.8M), and tax effects (–$2.1M), among others — reconciling GAAP net income of $5.1M to non‑GAAP .