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Gemini Space Station, Inc. (GEMI)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Net revenue was $49.8M, up 52% q/q, and total revenue was $50.6M, up 106% y/y, driven by stronger exchange activity and a sharp ramp in services (credit card, staking, custody) .
  • EPS missed consensus materially as IPO-related stock-based comp and higher marketing spend drove total operating expenses to $171.4M; revenue modestly beat, while EBITDA missed by a wide margin (see Estimates Context) *.
  • FY25 guidance introduced: Services & Interest Revenue $60–$70M; Technology + G&A $140–$155M; Marketing $45–$60M; with medium-term MTU growth targeted at 20–25% CAGR .
  • Key catalysts: record card adoption (64K sign-ups; >100K open accounts; $350M spend), staking expansion (SOL launch; $741M staked balances), and regulated global expansion (MiCA in EU; Australia launch), offset by higher credit provisioning and transaction losses tied to scaling the card portfolio .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Exchange volumes reached $16.4B (+45% q/q) with institutional at $14.6B (+49% q/q), supporting transaction revenue of $26.3M (+26% q/q) .
  • Services revenue surged to $19.9M (+111% q/q), led by credit card ($8.5M) and staking ($5.9M), plus $2.1M advisory revenue from warrants recognized over time .
  • Management emphasized the “trust, engagement, liquidity” flywheel: “Trust drives engagement, engagement builds liquidity, and liquidity strengthens trust.” .

What Went Wrong

  • Total operating expenses rose to $171.4M (+$72.7M q/q) on IPO-related stock-based comp ($45.8M), elevated marketing, rewards, and transaction costs tied to scaling .
  • Transaction losses increased to $7.7M (+$4.1M q/q), including provision for credit losses on the card portfolio rising to $2.8M amid rapid growth .
  • EPS and EBITDA missed consensus as spend stepped up; management noted marketing is a flexible lever but will remain elevated to drive durable user growth *.

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$24.542 $33.957*$50.618
Net Revenue ($USD Millions)$24.356 $33.957*$49.775
Operating Income ($USD Millions)($52.282) ($56.731)*($120.793)
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$76.824 $91.037*$171.411
Net Income ($USD Millions)($90.180) ($141.238)*($159.514)
Diluted EPS ($)($18.33) ($8.78)*($6.67)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions, non-GAAP)n/an/a($52.4)
  • S&P Global disclaimer: Asterisked values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Non-GAAP note: Adjusted EBITDA definition and reconciliation discussed in 8-K; excludes stock-based comp and other non-cash/non-recurring items .

Segment Revenue Breakdown

SegmentQ3 2024 ($USD Millions)Q3 2025 ($USD Millions)
Exchange$14.023 $25.152
OTC$0.519 $1.065
Other Transaction$0.034 $0.120
Credit Card$2.617 $8.532
Staking$3.101 $5.883
Advisory Fee$0.000 $2.098
Custodial Fee$1.609 $2.825
Other Services$0.000 $0.592
Total Net Revenue from Contracts with Customers$21.903 $46.267
Interest Income$2.453 $3.508
Corporate Interest$0.096 $0.725
Total Revenue$24.542 $50.618

KPIs

KPIQ3 2025
Spot Trading Volume ($USD Billions)$16.4
Institutional Volume ($USD Billions)$14.6
Retail Volume ($USD Billions)$1.8
New Card Sign-Ups (000s)64
Total Open Card Accounts>100,000
Card Transaction Volume ($USD Millions)$350
Staking Balances ($USD Millions)$741

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Monthly Transacting Users (MTUs) GrowthMedium-termn/a20–25% CAGR Inaugural
Services & Interest RevenueFY 2025n/a$60–$70M Inaugural
Technology + G&A ExpensesFY 2025n/a$140–$155M Inaugural
Marketing Expenses (excl. rewards)FY 2025n/a$45–$60M Inaugural

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current PeriodTrend
AI/Technology initiativesNo public transcript available (pre-IPO)Launch of Gemini Wallet; expanded multi-chain support; tokenized stocks in EU Building on-chain super app capabilities
Supply chain / operationsNo public transcript available (pre-IPO)Platform scalability and security investments; software licensing costs up Continued investment; modest expense step-up
Macro/regulatoryNo public transcript available (pre-IPO)MiCA license in EU; Australia launch; MAS engagement in Singapore Expanding regulated footprint
Product performance (Card)No public transcript available (pre-IPO)64K sign-ups; >100K accounts; $350M spend; 55% of new US users via card Strong PMF; acquisition wedge
Pricing / take ratesNo public transcript available (pre-IPO)Staking take rate increased from 15% to 25% Monetization improving
Regional trendsNo public transcript available (pre-IPO)EU expansion via MiCA/MiFID; Australia ramp International growth

Management Commentary

  • Strategic message: “Trust drives engagement, engagement builds liquidity, and liquidity strengthens trust. It is an integrated model that compounds over time…” .
  • Product roadmap: building a global on-chain “super app” integrating stablecoins, tokenized equities, and digital commodities; upcoming small business card; prediction markets pending CFTC progress .
  • Card-led acquisition: “More than 55% of newly acquired U.S. transacting users… first originated through card onboarding” .
  • Capital efficiency: Warehouse facility to finance card receivables ($48.9M debt; $67.9M pledged at quarter-end) to scale lending responsibly .

Q&A Highlights

  • Card momentum and unit economics: Card is the lead acquisition vector; Solana auto-stake feature increased staking engagement; marketing remains a flexible lever aligned to CAC/payback targets .
  • Credit performance: Losses were “really low” versus prior periods; provision increased with portfolio growth; underwriting discipline and fraud mitigation emphasized .
  • Pricing: Staking take rate increased to 25% from 15%; no material changes to card take rates .
  • Institutional exchange traction: New trading firms onboarding; competitive fees; improved liquidity .

Estimates Context

MetricQ3 2025 ConsensusQ3 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD)$47.368M*$50.618M
EPS ($)($2.372)*($6.67)
EBITDA ($USD)($47.015M)*($113.121M)*
  • Comparison: Revenue beat; EPS missed; EBITDA missed significantly*.
  • S&P Global disclaimer: Asterisked values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Context: Elevated operating expenses (stock-based comp, marketing, rewards, transaction processing, credit provisioning) drove the miss despite strong top-line momentum .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Services diversification is working: credit card, staking, and custody now ~43% of total net revenue contracts ($19.93M of $46.27M), de-risking reliance on trading cycles .
  • Card flywheel is a durable growth lever (acquisition, engagement, cross-sell) but requires sustained marketing and prudent credit risk management; watch provisioning trends and warehouse financing capacity .
  • Staking monetization improved via take-rate increase to 25% and SOL staking launch; monitor competitive responses and regulatory developments .
  • Operating expense normalization is key to narrowing losses after IPO-related comp; track GAAP vs non-GAAP progression and marketing efficiency claims .
  • Regulatory expansion (MiCA, Australia) broadens TAM; near-term execution risk balanced by clearer frameworks .
  • Near-term trading implications: Revenue momentum positive; cost intensity and EBITDA/EPS misses may cap upside until expense leverage materializes.
  • Medium-term thesis: Building a regulated on-chain “super app” with recurring revenue streams and institutional liquidity depth could support margin expansion as scale and financing structures mature .

Sources

  • Q3 2025 8-K and shareholder letter (Item 2.02; Exhibit 99.1):
  • Q3 2025 10-Q:
  • Q3 2025 Earnings Call:
  • IPO Press Releases (Q3 context):

S&P Global disclaimer: Asterisked values retrieved from S&P Global.