Sign in

    Genius Sports (GENI)

    Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Mar 31, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$6.00Last close (Aug 5, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$6.00Open (Aug 6, 2024)
    Price Change
    $0.00(0.00%)
    • Strong Revenue Growth and Raised Guidance: Genius Sports reported group revenue growth of 23% for 2024, up from 21% last year, and increased its revenue guidance to $510 million. The company expects to sustain 20%+ revenue growth for the foreseeable future, driven by investments coming to fruition and successful contract renewals.
    • Significant Margin Expansion and Cash Flow Generation: Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded to 22% in Q2 2024, the highest in four years, up from 9% in Q2 2021. Genius Sports expects to achieve an adjusted EBITDA of $85 million in 2024, representing a 400 basis points margin expansion, and aims for a long-term margin target exceeding 30%. The company also expects to be cash flow positive in 2024.
    • Solidified Key Partnerships and Competitive Positioning: Genius Sports extended exclusive data partnerships with major leagues like Football DataCo (including the English Premier League) through 2029 and is progressing well with U.S. sportsbook contract renewals. The company has secured most of the important rights deals, strengthening its competitive position and providing long-term revenue visibility.
    • The net loss widened by $10 million year-over-year, despite an increase in adjusted EBITDA driven by higher stock-based compensation, which could raise concerns about profitability and potential shareholder dilution.
    • U.S. revenue declined in the second quarter year-over-year, indicating potential challenges in the U.S. market.
    • The complete exit of major shareholder Apax, who sold their entire stake, may signal a lack of confidence from a significant investor.
    1. Revenue Growth Drivers
      Q: How can you maintain strong growth above expectations?
      A: Management is confident about sustaining strong revenue growth, driven by investments coming to fruition, successful renegotiations, and a well-positioned global stance. Growth is coming from "everywhere," and a focus on execution is expected to drive both revenue and margin growth in the coming period.

    2. EBITDA Margin Targets
      Q: Can you achieve your 30% EBITDA margin target without additional investments?
      A: They reiterate being on track to achieve the 30% EBITDA margin target, having everything needed within the business. Growth is driven not only by GGR but also by new product deliveries and distribution, such as the "X deal" and in-play offerings, all contributing to growth.

    3. US Sportsbook Renewals
      Q: What's the status of US Sportsbook partnership renewals?
      A: Renewals are progressing as expected with no surprises. They are confident in their significant position in the US sports betting ecosystem and aim to support continued growth in line with US GGR. Some contracts are signed, others are ongoing, and a few may be signed a few days into the NFL season, as is typical.

    4. Data Rights Costs & Margins
      Q: How will data rights costs grow through 2028, impacting margins?
      A: Management feels they've secured all necessary data rights, including long-term exclusive deals like the Football DataCo extension through 2029. They focus on driving cash flow and margins, well-positioned without needing new rights unless they are profitable and accretive.

    5. Capital Allocation & Buybacks
      Q: Are you considering share buybacks following Apax's exit?
      A: With Apax selling their entire stake, they have greater flexibility to consider share buybacks or other transactions. This opens up opportunities for cleaner transactions, and the improved capital base allows for strategic decisions that benefit shareholders.

    6. Raised Guidance & Q4 Outlook
      Q: What's driving the increased guidance for Q4?
      A: The increased Q4 guidance is driven by multiple growth levers, including pricing, live betting engagement, new product rollouts, state expansions like Florida, and significant increases in sports technology deals. They expect revenue to grow by over 30% year-on-year, with adjusted EBITDA nearly doubling in H2, showcasing the operating leverage of their business model.

    7. Media Ad Business Outlook
      Q: How is the media ad business impacted by operators reducing CAC?
      A: They remain confident, emphasizing that their ad products focus on both customer acquisition and retention. Their technology supports keeping customers engaged, and they expect strong product rollout across their customer base, remaining competitive on CAC and ROI.

    8. Macroeconomic Impact
      Q: Do you anticipate impact on betting activity due to macro pressures?
      A: They do not expect significant impact from macroeconomic pressures like inflation or potential recession. Having been through cycles before, they remain conservative in forecasting. Overall fan engagement is growing, and states are coming online in better ways, supporting growth.

    9. BetVision Developments
      Q: What can we expect from BetVision to drive live betting?
      A: Numerous improvements have been made to BetVision, including new features and personalization, and it's being rolled out to new customers. They aim to make it immersive to keep customers engaged, adding new sports like NCAA basketball and UK football to the platform.

    10. Trend Genius & X Partnership
      Q: How is the Trend Genius partnership with X progressing?
      A: The partnership with X (formerly Twitter) is another avenue to monetize data, opening opportunities with non-betting clients. It's part of expanding customer offerings, with technology investments coming to fruition, enhancing revenue streams beyond sports betting.

    11. International NFL Expansion
      Q: How does NFL expansion abroad affect your business?
      A: NFL expansion into markets like Brazil and Europe is beneficial. Brazil is viewed as an exciting betting market, and NFL's presence there is highly advantageous. They're heavily involved in technology facilitating the NFL's international growth, which aligns with their strategic focus.

    12. Stock-Based Compensation
      Q: What's the impact of stock-based compensation on financials?
      A: The increase in stock-based compensation is due to timing differences, with the 2024 management program issued in Q2 rather than Q4. There is no stock-based compensation for vendors in 2024; it's entirely employee-based. The higher Q2 charge will reverse in Q4.

    13. Functional Currency Change
      Q: How did changing functional currency affect financials?
      A: Changing the functional currency to US dollars reflects their increasing US dollar-denominated business. There's no impact on EBITDA or revenues; it's an accounting change due to shifts in revenue and cost bases as they move more staff to the US.

    Research analysts covering Genius Sports.