Executive Summary

Revenue and EPS mixed: Q3 revenue was $47.2M, down 3.7% q/q from $49.0M and up 66% y/y from $28.2M; revenue missed S&P Global consensus of $53.34M. EPS was -$0.03 vs. -$0.034 est., a slight beat . Revenue est marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Demand softness and mix: RYTELO demand fell 3% q/q as later-line patient discontinuations offset higher first/second-line starts (36% vs. 30% in Q2). Prescribing accounts grew 15% q/q (+~150 to ~1,150), with ~80% of accounts reordering .
Cost discipline: FY25 total OpEx guidance cut to $250–$260M from $270–$285M on CMC and infrastructure timing; distributor inventories ended Q3 at high end of 2–4 weeks; gross-to-net increased on Medicaid mix, GPO fees, and returns .
Outlook and catalysts: Management frames GERON as a 2026 growth story, focusing on awareness, earlier-line use, community penetration, and medical engagement; ASH 2025 data and completed enrollment of IMpactMF (OS interim 2H26) are near/mid-term catalysts .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Commercial breadth improved: prescribing accounts +15% q/q (+~150) to ~1,150; ~80% of accounts reordered, indicating retention of prescribers even as depth lags .
- Strategic execution drivers: CEO outlined a focused plan—“substantially increase awareness,” scale KOL/advocacy engagement, expand ISTs, and deepen community penetration to drive earlier-line adoption .
- Strengthened runway and OpEx control: FY25 OpEx guidance cut to $250–$260M; cash and marketable securities ~$421.5M at quarter-end support operations while preparing for EU commercialization in 2026 .
What Went Wrong
- Demand softness: demand down 3% q/q; higher first/second-line starts (36%) did not offset later-line discontinuations, limiting depth and therapy duration .
- Gross-to-net and channel dynamics: gross-to-net increased on higher Medicaid mix, GPO fees, and product returns; distributor inventory at high end of 2–4 weeks, reflecting channel adjustments .
- Timing of growth: management reset expectations—“2026 growth story”—which implies near-term top-line risk as awareness and earlier-line positioning take time to pull through .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$28.3	$39.6	$49.0	$47.2
Net Loss ($USD Millions)	$(26.4)	$(19.8)	$(16.4)	$(18.4)
Diluted EPS ($)	$(0.04)	$(0.03)	$(0.02)	$(0.03)
Cost of Goods Sold ($USD Millions)	$0.46	$1.21	$1.19	$1.04
Gross Margin %	98.4% (calc from )	97.0% (calc from )	97.6% (calc from )	97.8% (calc from )
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)	$56.5	$56.3	$61.5	$61.1

Q3 2025 vs. S&P Global Consensus

Revenue: Reported $47.2M vs. $53.34M consensus → MISS (approx. -11.5%)* .
EPS: Reported -$0.03 vs. -$0.034 consensus → BEAT (approx. +0.004 per share)* .
Consensus values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs and Commercial Metrics

KPI	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
RYTELO demand q/q	+17%	-3%
Ordering accounts (approx.)	>1,000; +~400 YTD	~1,150; +~150 q/q
New patient starts in 1L/2L	30%	36%
Account reorders	n/a	~80% of accounts reordered in the quarter
Distributor inventory	n/a	High end of 2–4 weeks
Gross-to-net	n/a	Mid-to-high teens (mix/fees/returns drove increase q/q)

Notes: Company reports one commercial product (RYTELO); no segment reporting .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Total Operating Expenses	FY 2025	$270M–$285M	$250M–$260M	Raised/Lowered: Lowered
EU Launch Timing (RYTELO)	2026	2026	2026	Maintained
IMpactMF Interim (OS)	2H 2026	2H 2026	2H 2026	Maintained
IMpactMF Final (OS)	2H 2028	2H 2028	2H 2028	Maintained
Top-line (Revenue) Guidance	FY 2025/2026	None provided	None; “2026 growth story” commentary	Maintained (narrative reset)
Liquidity runway	Ongoing	Sufficient with U.S. sales of RYTELO	Sufficient for foreseeable future	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Commercial awareness & prescriber breadth	Built sales force (+20%) and doubled MSLs; >1,000 accounts; focus on awareness and adoption	+15% q/q accounts to ~1,150; plan to intensify KOL/advocacy, community penetration, ISTs	Improving breadth; depth still lagging
Demand trajectory	Q1 demand flat; Q2 demand +17% q/q	Demand -3% q/q; later-line discontinuations offsetting starts	Mixed/near-term soft
Earlier-line positioning	Building education to move earlier-line use	1L/2L starts 36% vs. 30% (Q2); NCCN update supportive	Gradual progress
Medical engagement & data	ASCO/EHA presence; emphasis on education	Five ASH 2025 abstracts (1 oral); cytopenia-response analyses; long-term outcomes trend	Increasing momentum
R&D execution (IMpactMF)	>95% enrolled; interim 2H26	Fully enrolled (320); interim 2H26; final 2H28	On plan
EU commercialization	Planning 2026 launch	Named-patient shipment in Germany; still targeting 2026 in select EU markets	Incremental progress
Cost discipline	FY25 OpEx $270–$285M	FY25 OpEx lowered to $250–$260M	Positive

Management Commentary

“Net product revenue was $47.2 million for the third quarter... demand for Rytelo was down 3% compared to last quarter… New patient starts in first and second line increased to 36% compared to 30% in Q2… Prescribing accounts increased by 15%... to 1,150” .
“We need to substantially increase awareness for Rytelo… expand reach into community sites… improve conversions and retention… The pull-through of improved execution to revenue growth will take time” .
“Five ASH abstracts… oral presentation offers insight into how early cytopenias… may be associated with treatment response… 42-month landmark analysis suggest[s] a favorable trend for imetelstat in overall survival…” .
“As of September 30, 2025, we had approximately $420 million in cash… For fiscal year 2025, we expect our total operating expenses to be between $250 million and $260 million” .
“We’re saying at this point, this is a 2026 growth story… we are not giving any guidance at this point on our top line” .

Q&A Highlights

Gross-to-net: CFO reaffirmed mid-to-high teens; increase driven by higher Medicaid mix, GPO fees, and returns; expected to moderate .
Demand dynamics: CEO emphasized later-line discontinuations as key headwind; focus is on earlier-line starts and comprehensive “surround sound” education .
Prescriber breadth vs. depth: ~150 new accounts in Q3; ~80% reorders, but depth constrained; push to ensure “right start” in community settings .
Duration of therapy: Real-world duration shorter than IMerge given later-line mix; targeting earlier-line use to align with pivotal data .
OpEx cadence: FY26 guide not provided; FY25 OpEx reduced via CMC and slower IT/infrastructure ramp .
EU partnering: Dialogues ongoing; emphasis on being stewards of capital while focusing internal efforts on U.S. near term .

Estimates Context

Consensus vs. Actuals (S&P Global)

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean ($)	48,540,860*	47,303,380*	53,340,380*
Revenue Actual ($)	39,603,000	49,036,000	47,227,000
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)	-0.0386*	-0.0289*	-0.0343*
Primary EPS Actual ($)	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03

Notes: Consensus estimates marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Implications:

Q3 revenue missed consensus materially; EPS modestly beat. Near-term estimate revisions likely trend lower on demand softness and channel adjustments, partially offset by OpEx discipline .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Q3 print: Top-line miss vs. consensus on softer demand and later-line discontinuations; EPS slightly better than feared on cost control .
Commercial trajectory: Breadth is improving (accounts +15% q/q), but earlier-line conversion and depth remain the swing factors into 2026 .
Execution plan: Intensified HCP education, community penetration, and KOL/advocacy engagement should progressively shift use earlier-line—key to improving persistence and revenue quality .
Cost discipline: FY25 OpEx cut to $250–$260M provides downside protection as the commercial engine is recalibrated .
Clinical and data catalysts: ASH 2025 presentations (including oral) and completed IMpactMF enrollment with OS interim in 2H26 support medium-term optionality .
EU optionality: Named-patient shipment to Germany and 2026 selective EU launch plan expand geographic runway without near-term P&L dependence .
Trading setup: Near term, visibility remains limited; watch for leading indicators—1L/2L mix, community depth, reorder intensity, and gross-to-net normalization—while 2026 growth narrative and MF readouts anchor the medium-term thesis .

Footnote: Consensus estimates (marked with *) were retrieved from S&P Global.

GERON CORP (GERN)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary