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Gevo, Inc. (GEVO)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Top-line inflection: Revenue rose to $29.11M, up from $3.99M a year ago, and above S&P Global consensus of $26.35M (+10.5% beat)*, driven by two months of Gevo North Dakota (GND) ethanol and CCS contribution .
  • EPS modest beat; operating loss narrows: GAAP EPS was -$0.09 vs. -$0.10 consensus (+$0.01 beat)*; loss from operations improved to -$20.14M from -$23.14M YoY as GND and RNG posted positive segment EBITDA of $1.84M and $2.72M, respectively .
  • Guidance/tone: Management reiterated a goal of achieving positive Adjusted EBITDA for FY25 and expects to monetize 45Z tax credits beginning as early as next quarter; first 45Z sales are targeted for Q2 .
  • Strategic catalysts: (1) RNG CI pathway approved at -339 gCO2e/MJ, boosting LCFS value ; (2) FEG offtake for Scope 1/3 credits on 10M gpy to support ATJ financing ; (3) >100k MT CO2 abatement in Q1 from ethanol, CCS, and RNG .
  • Watch-outs: Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA remained negative (-$15.35M), with higher interest expense from acquisition debt and lower investment income headwinds; path to monetizing 45Z and scaling ATJ remain key stock drivers .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Rapid revenue scaling from GND; RNG also improved: Operating revenue reached $29.11M, with $22.8M from GND (Feb–Mar) and $5.7M RNG revenue; environmental attribute sales were $5.4M .
    • Carbon intensity wins and positive segment EBITDA: RNG received CARB approval for a -339 CI pathway; RNG EBITDA was $2.72M and GND EBITDA was $1.84M in Q1 .
    • Strong commercialization signals for ATJ/carbon attributes: New offtake for 10M gpy of Scope 1/3 credits (FEG) to aid ATJ financing; management says “We already have more than 50% of the capacity of the ATJ-30 sold.” .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Profitability still negative at consolidated level: Loss from operations was -$20.14M and Adjusted EBITDA was -$15.35M despite segment positives .
    • Financing cost headwinds: Interest expense rose by $2.8M YoY tied to acquisition debt and higher RNG bond rates; investment income fell by $2.8M YoY on lower cash balances .
    • Policy/market friction points: Lower RIN prices partly offset LCFS gains, and the story still hinges on timely monetization of 45Z credits and execution of ATJ financing/deployment .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025 (Actual)Q1 2025 (Consensus)
Revenue ($M)3.99 5.70*29.11 26.35*
GAAP EPS ($)-0.08 -0.08 -0.09 -0.10*
Loss from Operations ($M)-23.14 -19.65 -20.14 —
Operating Margin (%)-579.8% (calc. from )-344.6%* (calc. from )-69.2% (calc. from )—
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)-14.46 -11.32 -15.35 —

Notes:

  • Operating margin calculated as Loss from Operations / Revenue (document citations refer to underlying numerator/denominator).
  • Asterisks (*) indicate S&P Global values or metrics derived using S&P Global values; see disclaimer below.
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown – Q1 2025

SegmentRevenue/DetailIncome from Operations ($M)Adj. EBITDA ($M)
Gevo North Dakota (ethanol + CCS)$22.8M revenue (Feb–Mar) 1.10 1.84
Gevo RNG$5.7M revenue 0.47 2.72
GevoFuels—-0.72 -0.72
Gevo (Corporate/Other)~$0.5M isooctane sales -20.98 -19.19
Consolidated$29.11M -20.14 -15.35

KPIs – Q1 2025

KPIValue
Cash, cash equivalents & restricted cash$134.93M at 3/31/25
RNG production79,963 MMBtu
RNG environmental attribute sales$5.4M
Ethanol produced (GND, 2 months)~11.1M gallons at ~21 gCO2e/MJ CI
CO2 captured/sequestered (GND, 2 months)~29k metric tons
Total carbon abatement (Q1)>100k metric tons CO2e
Weighted-average shares232,027,993
Net loss-$21.73M

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025“Well-positioned to achieve positive Adjusted EBITDA in 2025.” “We believe we can get to positive Adjusted EBITDA this year.” Maintained/affirmed
45Z monetization (ethanol & RNG)2025—Expect to monetize; first 45Z sales targeted for Q2; P&L impact as soon as next quarter New detail/timing
RNG CI pathway2025Anticipated lower CI in Q1’25 under LCFS CARB approved -339 gCO2e/MJ; driving higher LCFS value Achieved
ATJ-60 financingMulti-yearDOE LPO conditional commitment of ~$1.6B Continuing engagement with DOE; progressing financing workstreams Ongoing
ATJ-30 (North Dakota)Multi-year—ATJ-30 targeted sooner/similar to ATJ-60; >50% capacity already sold New program

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3’24, Q4’24)Current Period (Q1’25)Trend
45Z tax creditsPositive tone on policy tailwinds; set-up for 2025 EBITDA improvement Monetization expected to start as early as next quarter; first sales in Q2 targeted Improving visibility
DOE/LPO financing (ATJ-60)Conditional commitment secured Continuing DOE engagement; also pivoting to deploy ATJ-30 sooner/equity-financed Broadening approach
ATJ commercializationBuilding offtake pipeline; technology/IP portfolio emphasized FEG offtake for Scope 1/3 credits on 10M gpy; >50% ATJ-30 sold; modular “copy/paste” strategy Accelerating market adoption
Carbon abatement & creditsEmphasis on Verity and sustainability attributes >100k MT abatement in Q1; developing voluntary BECCS CDR market; aiming to keep Scope 3 value in-house Expanding monetization avenues
RNG performanceInventory of LCFS attributes pending CI approval; EBITDA positive in Q4 CARB -339 CI approved; $5.7M revenue; $2.7M EBITDA in Q1 Stronger pricing tailwinds
Balance sheet/cash cadenceCash $259M at 12/31/24; managing capex $134.9M cash/restricted; considering RNG refinancing; controlled ATJ-60 spend Liquidity adequate; optimizing

Management Commentary

  • “We believe we can get to positive Adjusted EBITDA this year… We have real products to sell now that we own our North Dakota plant… We have approval from the Internal Revenue Service to apply for the Section 45Z tax credit, so we will do that, and that should help meet our Adjusted EBITDA goals.” — CEO, Dr. Patrick Gruber .
  • “We already have more than 50% of the capacity of the ATJ-30 sold… [It] will be near-fully modularized to minimize cost, construction, and start-up risks, and be able to be deployed sooner than or on a similar timeframe as ATJ-60.” — CEO, Dr. Patrick Gruber .
  • “Income from operations was $1.1M [GND] and adjusted EBITDA was $1.8M… at Gevo RNG… adjusted EBITDA was $2.7M last quarter… We expect continued adjusted EBITDA improvement throughout the year, driven by monetization of 45Z…” — CFO, Lynn Smull .
  • “There is already a market… for durable carbon dioxide removals… BECCS CDRs… we’re… expanding sales into that market” — CBO, Paul Bloom .

Q&A Highlights

  • Cash cadence/capex: Company is dialing back ATJ-60 spend, shifting resources to ATJ-30; evaluating RNG refinancing to free up cash; expects to remain in strong shape through year .
  • ATJ-30 timing vs ATJ-60: Management indicated ATJ-30 could be “same or sooner” than ATJ-60 due to modular design and copy/paste engineering .
  • Carbon abatement market: Management sees growing demand for BECCS CDRs; strategy includes optionality to sell carbon value with or separate from fuel .
  • 45Z monetization: Expected “sooner rather than later,” with potential surprise to the upside; aim for FY25 EBITDA positive; supportive policy developments flagged .
  • Scope 1/3 credit value: Voluntary market pricing “well north” of LCFS levels, “in the hundreds of dollars a ton,” with intent to retain Scope 3 value via Verity-led tracking .

Estimates Context

  • GEVO beat on both revenue and EPS in Q1’25: $29.11M vs $26.35M consensus (+10.5%); -$0.09 vs -$0.10 consensus (+$0.01). Continued estimate revisions will hinge on 45Z monetization cadence, CI pathway benefits, and ATJ commercialization .
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.
MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025 (Actual)Q1 2025 (Consensus)Delta
Revenue ($M)3.99 5.70*29.11 26.35*+$2.76M / +10.5%*
GAAP EPS ($)-0.08 -0.08 -0.09 -0.10*+$0.01*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term catalyst: 45Z monetization (ethanol and RNG) beginning as early as Q2 could swing consolidated Adjusted EBITDA toward break-even/positive in 2025 if executed as signaled .
  • Positive segment underpinnings: GND and RNG already producing positive operating income/EBITDA; CARB -339 CI pathway enhances RNG economics .
  • De-risking ATJ: FEG offtake for Scope 1/3 credits plus >50% ATJ-30 pre-sold strengthen financing viability and project returns; modular ATJ-30 strategy accelerates time-to-market .
  • Carbon monetization optionality: Multiple revenue streams (LCFS, 45Z, voluntary CDRs, Scope 1/3) create a diversified path to profitability; Verity aims to retain Scope 3 value internally .
  • Balance sheet: $134.9M cash/restricted provides run-rate flexibility; RNG refinancing under consideration to unlock liquidity; disciplined ATJ-60 spend .
  • Risk checks: Consolidated losses persist; interest expense up and investment income down YoY; execution on 45Z sales and ATJ financing are critical to the bull case .
  • Trading lens: Watch for announcements on 45Z sales closings, additional offtakes, RNG refinancing, and ATJ-30 milestones—each a potential stock-moving event given the estimate beat and path-to-EBITDA-positive narrative .

Appendix: Additional References (Q3’24, Q4’24)

  • Q3’24: DOE LPO conditional commitment (~$1.6B) and Red Trail acquisition positioned FY25 adjusted EBITDA positive; Q3 operating revenue $1.97M; non-GAAP Adj. EBITDA -$16.73M .
  • Q4’24: Combined operating revenue + investment income $8.9M; Q4 Adj. EBITDA -$11.32M; net loss/share -$0.08 .

Footnotes:

  • Asterisks (*) indicate values sourced from S&P Global consensus/actuals. Values retrieved from S&P Global.