Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

GI

Gevo, Inc. (GEVO)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered second consecutive positive Adjusted EBITDA ($6.7M) with revenue scaling to $42.7M, driven by Gevo North Dakota and RNG operations, while GAAP loss from operations improved to $(3.7)M and EPS was $(0.03) .
  • Clear beats vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $42.71M vs $31.37M*, EPS $(0.03) vs $(0.063); GAAP EBITDA came in at ~$3.8M vs $4.2M; Adjusted EBITDA was stronger at $6.7M (non-GAAP) .
  • Strategic progress: sold all 2025 Clean Fuel Production Credits (45Z) totaling $52M; executed multi‑year ~$26M CDR offtake and commenced CORC deliveries, reinforcing a ratable carbon monetization model .
  • Growth path: DOE LPO extended its $1.46B conditional loan guarantee and is evaluating scope modification to ATJ‑30 at North Dakota (target FID mid‑2026); ATJ‑30 capex estimated at ~$500M, with ~$150M Adjusted EBITDA potential uplift when operational .
  • Potential stock reaction catalysts: recurring monetization of 45Z credits, durable CDR deliveries, DOE LPO extension toward ATJ‑30, and continued Adjusted EBITDA momentum .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Second consecutive positive Adjusted EBITDA; consolidated $6.7M with GevoND $17.8M and RNG $2.6M supporting core earnings engine .
    • Monetized carbon at scale: sold all remaining 2025 45Z CFPCs ($52M total); executed and began deliveries under a $26M five‑year CORC agreement (Puro.Earth standard, 1,000‑year permanence) .
    • Management confidence and clarity: “Our consecutive quarter of positive Adjusted EBITDA shows that our baseline business model works...we have plans to make it even stronger.” — CEO Patrick Gruber .

  • What Went Wrong

    • GAAP profitability: Q3 GAAP net loss $(8.0)M and loss from operations $(3.7)M reflect interest expense and ongoing development costs; though improved YoY, they remain headwinds .
    • Interest burden: interest expense rose (Q3 $(5.2)M), linked to GevoND acquisition financing and remarketed RNG bonds .
    • Cash flow timing: CFO highlighted operating cash flow can lag Adjusted EBITDA due to 45Z credit generation and delivery timing; targeting neutral/positive operating cash flows in coming quarters .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$1.97 $29.11 $43.41 $42.71
Net Income ($USD Millions)$(21.16) $(21.73) $2.14 $(7.95)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.09) $(0.09) $0.01 $(0.03)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions, non-GAAP)$(16.73) $(15.35) $17.33 $6.71
  • Drivers vs prior year/quarter:
    • YoY Q3 revenue increased ~$40.7M, largely from GevoND ($38.2M), RNG/environmental attributes ($2.0M), and isooctane ($0.5M); costs were offset by $11.8M net 45Z credit booked into COGS .
    • QoQ softness in Adjusted EBITDA ($17.3M → $6.7M) reflects turnaround timing, mix, and interest/other items; GevoND and RNG remained positive contributors .

Segment performance (Q3 2025):

SegmentIncome from Operations ($USD Millions)Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions, non-GAAP)
GevoND$12.32 $17.78
Gevo RNG$0.48 $2.58
Gevo (Corporate/Other)$(15.95) $(13.10)
Consolidated$(3.69) $6.71

KPIs (Q3 2025 operations):

KPIQ3 2025
Low‑carbon ethanol produced (gallons)~17 million
Protein and corn oil co‑products (tons)~46 thousand
Carbon sequestered (tons)~42 thousand; cumulative >560k since Jun’22
RNG produced (MMBtu)~92 thousand

Estimates vs Actual (SPGI consensus):

MetricConsensus (Q3 2025)Actual (Q3 2025)
Revenue ($USD)$31.37M*$42.71M
Primary EPS ($USD)$(0.063)*$(0.03)
EBITDA ($USD)$4.21M*~$3.80M*
  • Beats/misses: Revenue and EPS beat; GAAP EBITDA slightly below consensus; Adjusted EBITDA (company non‑GAAP) stronger at $6.7M .
  • Note: Actual EBITDA shown by SPGI differs from company’s non‑GAAP Adjusted EBITDA.
    Values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Clean Fuel Production Credits (45Z) salesFY 2025Initial $22M sold (bank ROFO) Total $52M sold; remaining 2025 credits fully contracted Raised/Completed
Operating cash flow trajectoryNear-termNot explicitly guidedTargeting neutral or positive cash flows from operations as credits convert to cash New specific target
45Z per‑gallon credit generationFY 2025 → FY 2026~$0.80/gal 2025 (implied) Working to ~$1.00/gal in 2026 via ILOC and decarbonization; inflation factor applies Raised target
ATJ‑30 FIDMid‑2026ATJ‑60 advancing with DOE LPO (SD) DOE LPO conditional commitment extended and evaluating scope to ATJ‑30 at ND; FID mid‑2026 targeted Scope shifted; timeline affirmed
ATJ‑30 capex and EBITDA upliftProject outlookStandardized ATJ designs (ATJ‑30/ATJ‑60); no numeric uplift priorATJ‑30 capex ~$500M; uplift ~$$150M Adjusted EBITDA once operational Expanded detail
Carbon co‑product revenueFY 2025 exit; LT$3–5M exit rate by YE’25; LT >$30M/year Reiterated $3–5M by YE’25; LT could exceed $30M/year Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1–Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Carbon monetization (CDR/CORCs)Initiated CDR sales; projected $3–5M by YE’25; LT >$30M/year Signed ~$26M 5‑yr deal; first CORC deliveries; 1,000‑year permanence (Puro.Earth) Strengthening; ratable growth
45Z CFPC creditsBegan sales; $22M initial; expect >$10M/quarter through 2029 Sold all 2025 CFPCs ($52M); timing drives cash conversion lag Execution/scale-up
DOE LPO financingAdvancing ATJ‑60 in SD Conditional commitment extended; evaluating scope shift to ATJ‑30 at ND; FID mid‑2026 De‑risking; focus on ND
ATJ‑30 programStandardized designs; >50% capacity pre‑sold Capex ~$500M; uplift ~$150M Adjusted EBITDA; copy‑edit‑paste playbook Design progress; clarity
Verity digital platformNew customer agreements (Landus, MSP) Installed at GevoND; expected fully functional by YE; broader commercialization Scaling
Supply chain/farmersStrong feedstock ties, record harvest Continued engagement; capex in site infrastructure, efficiency Operational robustness
Sequestration capacity1M t/yr pore space; exploring third‑party volumes Considering rail (“virtual pipeline”) and tolling; only 16–17% utilized today Optionality expanding

Management Commentary

  • “Our consecutive quarter of positive Adjusted EBITDA shows that our baseline business model works...we have plans to make it even stronger.” — CEO Patrick Gruber .
  • “After the end of the quarter, we completed the sale of our remaining 2025 Section 45Z...bringing our total contracted sale for the year to $52 million of credits.” — CFO Leke Agiri .
  • “We currently estimate the installed capital cost [ATJ‑30] to be around $500 million...we see ATJ‑30...prove it out, and then copy, edit, and paste that same blueprint.” — President & COO Chris Ryan .
  • “Our CDR credits are certified under the Puro.Earth Standard...rated to remain secure for at least 1,000 years.” — Chief Business Officer Paul Bloom .

Q&A Highlights

  • EBITDA drivers: Near‑term uplift from debottlenecking ethanol and expanding sequestration volumes; incremental capex ~$15M; potential >$100M Adjusted EBITDA at GevoND over 18–24 months .
  • DOE LPO scope change: Conditional commitment extended; shift to ND seen as economically stronger (existing operations, sequestration on‑site) increasing financing likelihood .
  • Capacity expansion: Ethanol “natural” expansion to ~75M gpy before considering a new plant; ATJ‑30 preferred given long‑run economics vs volatile ethanol .
  • Verity commercialization: Installed at GevoND; ready to scale to other biofuel producers; improves audited, traceable carbon accounting across voluntary and compliance markets .
  • Sequestration optionality: Evaluating rail “virtual pipeline” to use spare pore space; potential third‑party CO2 storage and fee model .

Estimates Context

  • Revenue and EPS materially beat S&P Global consensus; GAAP EBITDA slightly below consensus, while non‑GAAP Adjusted EBITDA outperformed internal expectations. Expect estimate revisions to reflect sustained revenue scale at GevoND, ratable carbon monetization, and DOE LPO extension supporting ATJ‑30 trajectory .
    Values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The business has pivoted to recurring Adjusted EBITDA with carbon treated and monetized as a co‑product, de‑risking near‑term earnings reliance on SAF timelines .
  • Full‑year 2025 45Z credit sales ($52M) and initial CORC deliveries validate cash‑backed carbon monetization; watch operating cash flow normalization as credits convert to cash over coming quarters .
  • DOE LPO extension and scope evaluation to ATJ‑30 at ND plus defined capex and uplift improve the financing and execution visibility; FID targeted mid‑2026 .
  • Operational KPIs (ethanol gallons, RNG MMBtu, sequestration tons) show stable asset performance; incremental debottlenecking capex (~$15M) can amplify Adjusted EBITDA at GevoND .
  • Watch for CI score improvements and 45Z credit/gal rising toward ~$1.00 in 2026, which enhances unit economics and cash generation .
  • Medium‑term thesis: carbon market leadership (durable CORCs), integrated BECCS + ethanol, and standardized ATJ‑30 platform position Gevo to scale domestically and globally; optionality to monetize spare pore space via rail/tolling .
  • Near‑term trading lens: results/estimate beats, carbon credit sales/insurances, DOE financing milestones, and Verity deployments are likely catalysts; monitor interest expense drag and cash conversion timing .

Notes: Values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.