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Gevo, Inc. (GEVO)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 showed sequential improvement: loss from operations narrowed to $19.6M and non‑GAAP adjusted EBITDA loss improved to $11.3M; year-end cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $259.0M .
  • Revenue beat consensus: revenue of $5.70M* vs S&P Global consensus of $3.85M*, while EPS was roughly in line to slightly better at −$0.08 vs −$0.0871 consensus; three estimates in the quarter* .
  • Strategic catalysts re-affirmed: RNG CI final pathway under LCFS expected in early 2025, and management reiterated the 2025 path to positive run‑rate adjusted EBITDA via RNG and the newly acquired low‑carbon ethanol + CCS platform (Gevo North Dakota), with targeted EBITDA ranges of $9–$18M (RNG) and $30–$60M (GevoND) for 2025 .
  • Narrative into 2025 centers on monetizing carbon value (45Z/CFPC and CDR credits), DOE LPO close for ATJ‑60, and scaling Verity; management indicated ~$40M additional ATJ‑60 development spend before financial close in 2025 .

Note: Asterisked values are from S&P Global. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Revenue beat Street on low base: $5.70M* vs $3.85M* consensus; adjusted EBITDA loss improved to $(11.3)M from $(16.7)M in Q3 and $(12.3)M in Q4’23, indicating sequential operating progress .
    • Carbon monetization roadmap: management highlighted immediate 45Z upside at Gevo North Dakota (estimated $30–$60M annual adjusted EBITDA potential) and RNG 45Z eligibility, with CARB pathway expected “any day” in early 2025 .
    • Clear tone on project finance path and carbon pricing capture: “we see a clear path to a positive run rate adjusted EBITDA in 2025,” and are “reworking some of the contracts… to make sure that we aren’t giving money away” on voluntary carbon value .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Operating loss remains sizable: Q4 loss from operations was $(19.6)M, though improved vs Q3’s $(24.0)M; FY24 operating loss was $(90.8)M, above FY23 due to G&A, project development, and acquisition-related costs .
    • RNG LCFS pricing and timing: LCFS price weakness and delayed final CI pathway pushed environmental attribute revenue recognition into later periods, contributing to lower 2024 non‑GAAP RNG EBITDA vs earlier expectations .
    • Internal controls: management disclosed a material weakness related to capitalization vs expensing determinations, though noted remediation in progress; issue did not harm cash and EPS improved with capitalization .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD)$4.374M*$5.260M $1.965M $5.700M*
Net Loss per Share (EPS)$(0.077)*$(0.09) $(0.09) $(0.08)
Loss from Operations$(21.337)M $(24.029)M $(24.008)M $(19.646)M
Adjusted EBITDA (non‑GAAP)$(12.318)M $(15.286)M $(16.728)M $(11.322)M
  • Consolidated cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash at 12/31/24: $259.0M .
  • Combined operating revenue and investment income: $8.9M in Q4; $32.7M for FY24 .
  • RNG 2024 revenue: $15.8M; Q4 RNG segment LFO $(3.5)M, non‑GAAP adj. EBITDA +$2.7M .

Segment KPIs and Operating Detail

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024FY 2024
RNG MMBtu sold95,187 101,101 366,557
RNG Environmental Attributes Sales$4.2M (Q2) $1.8M (Q3) $15.1M (FY)
Expected LCFS CI (RNG)Temporary −150 gCO2e/MJ; final pathway anticipated with lower CI in Q1’25 Final pathway anticipated Q1’25 Expect lower CI with final pathway approval anticipated Q1’25

Estimates vs Actuals (S&P Global)

MetricQ4 2024 ConsensusQ4 2024 Actual
Revenue ($USD)$3.85M*$5.70M*
EPS−$0.0871* (3 est.)−$0.08

Note: Asterisked values are from S&P Global. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RNG Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025Not quantified previously for 2025$9–$18M expected in 2025 Initiated
Gevo North Dakota (low‑carbon ethanol + CCS) Adjusted EBITDARun-rate FY 2025N/A (pre‑acquisition)$30–$60M annually expected contribution Initiated
ATJ‑60 DOE LPO2025 CloseTargeted end of 2024 close earlier; shifted to 2025Conditional commitment in place; targeting 2025 financial close; ~$40M additional development spend to close Timing updated/maintained trajectory
RNG ProductionFY 2025~400k MMBtu run‑rate noted>400k MMBtu expected in 2025 Maintained/reaffirmed
VerityFY 2025First revenue in 2024Expect customer base expansion; no numeric guidance Maintained qualitative

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2, Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
DOE LPO for ATJ‑60Process progressing; targeting end‑2024 close . DOE conditional commitment secured; Q3 reiterated .Targeting 2025 financial close; need ~$40M additional development spend; tweaking offtakes to capture voluntary carbon value .Timing shifted; execution details increasing
45Z/Carbon Monetization40B/45Z guidance helpful; monetized ITC at RNG .GevoND 45Z a key EBITDA driver; RNG 45Z and CDR credits highlighted .Accelerating monetization
RNG LCFS PathwayAnticipated final CI −350; approval “coming months” .CARB final pathway expected “any day” in Q1’25; environmental attribute inventory buildup .Near‑term catalyst
ETO Tech & AxensETO patents; LG Chem JDA progress .Alliance broadened with Axens; 12–18 month development milestones; aim to lower capex/opex ~30% for fuels .Advancing to commercialization
Verity (MRV SaaS)AI integration, partnerships (Landus, ClearFlame); acreage growing .First revenue achieved in 2024; >200k acres tracked; expanding customers .Scaling

Management Commentary

  • “2024 was a big year for Gevo… targeting positive adjusted EBITDA [in 2025].”
  • On Gevo North Dakota: “This asset alone has the potential to generate $30 million to $60 million of adjusted EBITDA annually, depending upon the price of ethanol… and 45Zs and RINs.”
  • On voluntary carbon value: “We’re reworking some of the contracts… to make sure that we aren’t giving money away.”
  • CFO on trajectory: “we see a clear path to a positive run rate adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
  • On tariffs: “Tariffs are not impacting our project at all.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Financing and timing: Equity for ATJ‑60 SPV will be a prerequisite to FID alongside DOE LPO; targeting completion in 2025; talking with strategic and financial investors .
  • Carbon monetization options: CCS value can be bundled into fuels or unbundled and sold as durable CDR credits; company sold >$1M of CDR during 2Q25 and sees a growing market (context for future) .
  • RNG capacity: Expanded to ~400k MMBtu; potential further debottlenecking .
  • ETO commercialization: Next 12–18 months focused on derisking for fuels scale; Axens partnership leverages decades of catalytic experience .
  • Controls: Material weakness tied to capitalization vs expensing; remediation ongoing; no cash impact .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 2024 revenue beat S&P Global consensus: $5.70M* actual vs $3.85M* estimate (3 ests). EPS was slightly better than consensus: −$0.08 vs −$0.0871 (3 ests)* .
  • Looking ahead, Street models may need to incorporate incremental 2025 contributions from 45Z monetization (GevoND ethanol + CCS and RNG), potential CDR credit sales, and the impact of an LCFS final pathway on RNG environmental attribute pricing .

Note: Asterisked values are from S&P Global. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Sequential operating improvement with a revenue beat and better adjusted EBITDA loss positions GEVO for 2025 inflection as carbon monetization ramps .
  • 2025 EBITDA drivers are tangible and diversified: GevoND ($30–$60M), RNG ($9–$18M), plus optionality from CDR credit sales and LCFS CI improvements .
  • Near‑term catalysts: CARB LCFS final pathway for RNG; DOE LPO documentation/close; progress on offtake structures capturing voluntary carbon value .
  • Financing visibility: Management targeting 2025 FID for ATJ‑60 with ~$40M incremental development spend; equity at project‑level SPV mitigates corporate dilution risk .
  • Technology moat deepening: Axens alliance and ETO program indicate potential capex/opex advantages for alcohol‑to‑jet fuels over time .
  • Risk monitor: LCFS pricing, DOE/permits timing, and execution on offtake/carbon value constructs; internal controls remediation in flight .
  • Trading setup: Carbon credit catalysts and DOE milestones could drive sentiment; improved adjusted EBITDA trajectory provides downside support on execution .