Gold Fields - Earnings Call - Q4 2024

Transcript

Mike Fraser (CEO)

Good morning and good afternoon, everybody, and thank you for joining us for the Goldfields Financial Year twenty twenty four Results Presentation. I'm here in Johannesburg, joined by our CFO, Alex Dahl, who will be participating in the presentation. I bring your attention to the forward looking statements and disclaimers on Page two of the presentation. What I'd like to start with is starting with our strategy.

Goldfield's strategy is very simple. We have three priority pillars. Firstly, is delivering safe, reliable and cost effective operations. Secondly, delivering positive social and environmental impact. Thirdly, to grow the quality and value of our portfolio.

And if we're successful in delivering on those three priority pillars, we believe we will create a high quality gold stock with predictable outcomes. Goldfields boasts a portfolio of quality assets. We are focused on being a safe, reliable, high quality, low cost gold producer. Our portfolio is anchored by four multi decade foundational assets, which provide a production base load for decades to come. We have another four assets, which provide upside optionality.

And we have two assets which are we identify as transition assets. We have a sound program of work, including exploration and focusing on bolt on M and A opportunities as we look to upgrade the quality of our portfolio. Goldfield is also committed to creating value for our shareholders by enhancing the longevity of our portfolio, focusing on growing cash flow per share, and we believe this will ultimately lead to improved value and increased shareholder returns. We are also pursuing improvement opportunities across all our assets to grow cash flow margin. In delivering our strategy for 2024, we really had a very difficult half first half.

Firstly, we had two fatalities and in some operations were impacted by weather related and operational challenges. This resulted in the guidance revision at the half year, and this is clearly not what we stand for. We intensified our focus on safety and focused greatly on the reliability of our operational outcomes. This helped us deliver a much improved second half and enabled us to deliver a result in line with our revised guidance of a total production of 2,070,000 attributable ounces and an all in sustaining cost of US1629 dollars per ounce. Our H2 production was 26% higher half on half and our all in sustaining cost was 12% lower half on half, demonstrating the improved trajectory.

Supported by higher gold prices, our normalized earnings were up 36% year on year, delivering normalized earnings of USD 1,200,000,000.0. Also supported by a very strong second half and particularly in the fourth quarter, our free cash flow increased 65% year on year to a total of USD $6.00 5,000,000. Our net debt to EBITDA increased marginally to 0.73x net debt to EBITDA, and this was particularly on the back of the 100% acquisition of Asysco Mining, which gave us 100% ownership of the windfall asset. We were also successful in ramping up the Solaris Norte, albeit slow. We delivered a strong fourth quarter where we delivered in line with revised guidance.

We also have embedded a very robust capital allocation process during the year, which Alex will talk to in a minute. And this allowed us to ensure that we maintain the tension balance between investing in our business and returning cash to our shareholders. This robust capital allocation process allowed us to return a record dividend to the shareholders with a final dividend of ZAR7 per South African per share. And this represented approximately 80% of our free cash flow generated in 2024. We believe that with the work that we put in place in 2024, we've delivered a solid foundation to drive ongoing value creation for Goldfield's shareholders.

Moving on to safety. Tragically, we lost two of our colleagues that were fatally injured in our operations. Safety and well-being is our number one value, and we took that underperformance extremely seriously. We undertook a deep and independent review of our safety culture and our safety system of work. This resulted in us developing a deep and long term safety improvement roadmap focusing on four key areas, including leadership and culture, single fatality risk reduction, building overall safety process and system capability and delivering consistent business partner engagement and alignment.

As you can see, we have not been able to in the recent years eliminate fatalities. But with the roadmap that we're on, I'm absolutely convinced we have now built the alignment around a pathway to the elimination of fatal injuries and serious injuries in our workplace. We continue to focus on psychosocial health and well-being and progressing the 23 priority that under the EB and Co recommendations. Nothing is more important than delivering on our safety guarantee to ensure that everyone goes home safe and well at the end of every shift. And our entire organization is now aligned on that priority.

Moving on to our ESG commitments. We are largely on track for delivery of our six priority ESG commitments. We continue to make good progress on all six of these priority areas. We are planning to take a midpoint review against the 2,030 targets that are planned for 2025 to ensure that we remain aligned and relevant to our longer term strategy. I've spoken about safety and health and more work to be done in that area.

We are making good progress on gender diversity and retained our woman representation at 25%. We have improved our woman in leadership representation and pleasingly have now more than 40% of our top 50 leaders being woman. In terms of stakeholder value creation, we continue to generate value for our host communities and have delivered more than US4 billion dollars in value created for these stakeholders, of which US1.3 billion dollars has been delivered to our host communities. We also are making good progress on delivering our legacy programs in Peru, Ghana and Chile. On decarbonization, 18% of our energy is now met from renewable energy.

The St. Ives project, which is planned for completion in Q1 of twenty twenty six, will also make a material difference to St. Ives operation. We have also introduced a target for Scope three reduction that was set in November of twenty twenty three. We have reduced the number of active upstream raised TSFs from five to four by completion of the transition of TSF2 at Takwa to a downstream facility, and we are transitioning TSF1, which is due for completion in 2026.

We have also made really good progress in our water stewardship and 70% of all water use is now recycled or reused. Moving on to our 2024 performance. Off the back of a disappointing half one, we saw very big improvement in H2, and we believe this sets us up for a very strong improvement in 2025, where we are now guiding for between 918% year on year improvement into 2025. Half on half, as I've said earlier, our production increased by 26% half on half. Our all in sustaining costs were down 12% and our all in costs were down 16% half on half.

Moving on to production. And this is a waterfall which really demonstrates some of the losses that we had in 2024 and the planned recovery into 2025. So during 2024, we are gold equivalent ounces were down 8% year on year, largely impacted by a combination of weather impacts at Gruye. The delays in open pit development at St. Ives, where we had delays in Invincible Football South, as well as Swift Shore ounces coming on stream, challenges at South Deep due to stope turnaround and backfill challenges.

Cerro Corona had some weather issues in the beginning of the year, as well as some impacts of the copper gold equivalent ounce conversion. And obviously, we have had some positive benefit from the first production coming through at Solaris Norte. You are seeing from 24% to 25%, we are expecting at midpoint around a 13% improvement in total ounces produced. Significant contribution to that is obviously the ramp up at Salares Norte. In addition with support from Gruyere recovery, St.

Ives a big step up, Agnew and South Deep. We are seeing some offsets from demand as we move to planned prior only stockpile production as well as Taco as we prioritize stripping and processing of lower grade stockpiles in 2025. And now I'll now hand over to Alex to take us through the financials.

Alex Dall (CFO & Executive Director)

Thank you, Mike. We have seen a significant increase in the all in sustaining cost and all in cost from 2023 to 2024, mainly driven by the lower gold sold, as explained by Mike, but continuing to see higher mining inflation and a significant release of GIP, particularly at the Tarquin Domingue mines. In addition, increased sustaining CapEx, which I'll explain in a later slide. If we take that on to the guidance for 2024, we do see a reduction, thanks to the higher gold sold, as explained by Mike on the previous slide. We continue to see an increase in costs due to mining inflation and then also a significant increase in capital spend as we invest in the Windfall and Snowys renewable projects. So back to you, Mike.

Mike Fraser (CEO)

Thank you, Alex. Just want to quickly go through our assets and just talk about the asset performance and some of the catalysts. Just starting with St. Ives, Twenty Twenty Four was certainly a year of investment and you would see that in the higher all in costs at St. Ives.

We did see production impact by the delay in the delivery of the two open pits. But second half production was materially higher, 38% against H1 and all in costs down 9% half on half. And we do believe that St. Ives is now well set up for a strong delivery into 2025. In terms of the priority catalysts, firstly, the focus on advancing the material handling study, which will really transform access to the Invincible Underground.

Also the looking at the Invincible Underground full potential and delivering the renewable energy micro grid project, which reduces energy costs and opens up access to future mine life. Talking about South Deep, twenty twenty four was also a year of two halves. It was really a focus on stabilizing the operation to deliver long term safe and reliable production. The first half, as we've spoken, was really impacted by stope turnover and backfill, But that really improved quite significantly in the second half, and we've really eliminated a large part of the backfill leakages that we were experiencing in the first half. That allowed South Deep to deliver a 28% improvement in production in the second half and dilution in all in costs by 10%, largely due to the high fixed nature of that operation.

And the 25% focus is really about maintaining that stability and improving the stope turnover and managing of those backfill processing. At Tarkwa, we had a plan to do a high amount of strip in the first half, particularly in Q2, which meant that again, our production was back weighted to the second half with a 17% improvement in the second half, with all in costs then coming under significantly lower by 20% in the second half. For Tarquin, the key catalyst for us is to the focus on delivering the Tarquin Ideopreme JV and progressing that into 2025. We've also undertaken some detailed studies on mining optimization, and we believe this is a real opportunity for us to improve the effectiveness and efficiencies of operations at Takwa. And in 2025, we're also undertaking some accelerated stripping to rebalance and provide more long term mine life flexibility.

Quickly going through Gruyere. Gruyere was also a tale of two halves with the weather event in the first half impacting production. But we did see significantly improved performance in the second half, particularly from our contractor in the ability to move material. And we saw ounces up 27% in the second half and also a dilution of costs with a 13% reduction of costs in the second half. We have, from a catalyst point of view, are advancing the strip in 2025, and we will be having a very high amount of material moved in 2025 as we open up further ore options.

We are undertaking the underground study for future options at the end of the current open pit mine life, as well as advancing the Golden Highway study for a potential secondary ore source. At Granny Smith, this has been a solid producer for many years and has continued to deliver in 2025 with attributable production 1% up on 2023. We did see attributable production also second half weighted with the 28% half on half improvement and all in costs down 17% in the second half. We are also doing an ore handling study at Granny Smith to identify options for reducing our cycle time as we get to deeper levels of the ore body. And also looking at, in the short term, some potential alternative ore sources to allow us to fill the mill.

Moving on to Agnew. Agnew has again delivered an improvement in the second half. They were slightly down on '23 production, but some of that was just to a rollover in the December. And all in costs were lower in the second half, but slightly up on the full year. We are investing this year in additional brownfield exploration on the tenement package to see if there's any shallower, more lateral options that we haven't considered and looking at a broader exploration on the tenement package.

Just talking to Salatus Norte, the real priority for us in 2025 is the safe ramp up into through this year and delivering steady state production at the end of Q4. We delivered 45,000 ounces, which was in the midpoint of our revised range. All in costs remain elevated during 2025 on the basis of it being much lower production than planned. We're also undertaking district opportunities to provide additional ore feed into the plant. At Demang, this is delivered absolutely to our plan in 2024.

We are currently processing stockpiles, but we are undertaking some life extension studies to see what alternative options exist at Demang. At Cerro Corona, as I've spoken, it was a year of slightly lower production contributed by some weather in the beginning of the year, but also due to the copper gold conversion factor impacting on our oil in costs. 2025 was is going to be the last year of mining for Cerro Corona. We have got NE31. We continue to also do regional exploration in a very highly prospective tenement package.

I just want to do quickly highlight this slide. So whilst I've spoken about some of the key catalysts in our asset, we also have a very broad based asset optimization program covering both operating effectiveness focus areas, specific business improvements to improve ounces, reduce costs as well as transformational opportunities that we continue to develop in conjunction with our technical team and external technical partners. These are all focused initiatives that are appropriate to each of the assets. And where we can, we are leveraging across the learnings between our different assets. And I believe this program, as we embark on it, will give us the opportunity to deliver further value and the potential from within our portfolio.

Now hand over to Alex to take us through the financial slides.

Alex Dall (CFO & Executive Director)

Thank you, Mike. On the back of the higher gold price, we were able to deliver very strong headline and normalised earnings, which enabled us to deliver a record total dividend of ZAR10 per share at a highly competitive dividend yield of 3.5%. We delivered adjusted free cash flow from operations, that's all operations excluding Solaris, Noorta and Windfall, delivering cash of $1,500,000,000 Adjusted free cash flow, which is after all capital interest and corporate costs, was at CHF $6.00 5,000,000, up 65% year on year or $0.68 per share. The earnings were driven by strong tailwinds from the gold price. We have an average realized price of $2,418 per ounce in 2024 compared to $19.42 dollars per ounce in 2023.

This was offset by lower ounces sold as explained by Mike in the previous slides. We did have higher operating costs. These were mainly driven by higher contractor mining costs at both Tarkwans and Ives and a significant change charge to gold inventory change movements. We had lower depreciation due to lower production and on the back of the higher gold price, there were also higher taxes and royalties. This led to an increase in normalized earnings of 36% year on year and a SEK 1,200,000,000.0 of normalized earnings.

On the back of the higher earnings, we continue to deliver strong free cash flow. There was higher capital expenditure in 2024, which I will cover in more detail in a later slide. In addition, we funded DKK65 million to Winfall prior to the finalization of the Cisco acquisition at the October of the year. This resulted in a 65% increase in free cash flow from $365,000,000 to $6.00 $5,000,000 or $0.68 per share. As communicated last year, we implemented a robust capital allocation framework that ensured, firstly, that we will maintain our investment credit rating.

We will spend all the capital we need to ensure that we can deliver safe, reliable and cost effective production, and we will pay our base dividend at 30% to 45% of normalized earnings. All remaining free cash flow after this must compete between providing additional returns to shareholders and growing the quality of the portfolio, either through investing in our own assets or external growth opportunities. This framework maintains the tension between these two competing priorities, and we believe we have got the balance right this year with the strong dividend delivering 80% of free cash flow back to shareholders. On this slide, net debt is up from US1 billion dollars to US2.1 billion dollars This is after funding the Cisco acquisition of US1.5 billion dollars and strong free cash flow generation and paying significant returns to shareholders. Pleasingly, on the back of the strong earnings, the net debt to EBITDA ratio is at 0.73x, which is below our target of being below 1x through the cycle.

In addition, during the year, we repaid the CHF500 million bond that was due in May 2024, and we entered into a bridge facility to fund the Cisco acquisition. We are currently assessing debt funding structures to refinance the bridge and extend our debt maturity. In addition, we had cash on hand at the end of the year of $860,000,000 This is due to the significant cash generation in quarter four and will be used to pay down debt in the first quarter of twenty twenty five. As our dividend policy is linked to earnings, we have been able to deliver strong dividend growth over the years in the increasing gold price environment. This resulted in the final dividend of ZAR7 and a total dividend of ZAR10, which equates to a year on year increase of 34%.

And as mentioned previously, this is 80% of all free cash flow generated. This slide unpacks the increase in capital expenditure from 2023 to 2024 and 2025. '20 '20 '4 was a year of high capital due to a number of key reasons, mainly being the reinvestment in St. Ives, including the infrastructure and development for the Invincible underground and stripping at the Swifter And Invincible Footfall South Pits. This will set Cenaios up for the future.

This investment into Cenaios will continue in 2025 with increased spend on the Cenaios renewables project. In addition, there was increased spend at Gruyere as we increased stripping in stages four and five to live on the production profile for the mine. This will continue into 2025. In 2025, we will have capital spend we will have higher capital spend at Granny Smith due to development and ventilation requirements at Wallaby and Tarkwa as we prioritise the Strip, as mentioned by Mike. Growth capital will be higher due to the significant investment in windfall, which will be on early construction works and long lead items and continuing underground development and exploration.

This will be partially offset by lower capital at Solaris Norte as construction is completed and we continue the safe ramp up of the mine. Thank you, Mike, and back to you.

Mike Fraser (CEO)

Thank you, Alex. Just closing out on a few slides on our portfolio. I think firstly, just to talk to Goldfields. So Goldfields is a global miner with a portfolio of nine mines and one project. We have a really good spread between Tier one jurisdictions and emerging markets with nearly half of our production and cash flow coming from our operations in Australia.

What we have also done in 2024 is really revitalized our exploration program as one of the pillars of our growth. We have entered into green three greenfield exploration JVs in Australia, Three exploration opportunities in Peru and Chile and one in Canada. These are all in jurisdictions that we already operate in and know very well. And we are very excited about the prospectivity of some of these opportunities. Just moving on to Solares Norte.

As I've mentioned earlier, we are making good progress on the ramp up. We have delivered a very good Q4. Our guidance at 2025 is set between 325,000 to 375,000 ounces. We've been reasonably conservative in this ramp up profile, as you can see by the top right of that chart, where we've actually derated our ramp up during some of the key winter months to ensure that we are appropriately managing the exposure in that climate. We do still are on track for a full Citysafe production in Q4 of twenty twenty five, with a 2026 production estimated to be between 550,000 to 580,000 ounces as per our original planning.

As I mentioned earlier, we continue to do district exploration to identify opportunities to extend mine life. One of the key areas of progress is around the Chinchilla capture program and relocation program. We to date, we have successfully captured and relocated to Chinchilla. And pleasingly, we have now been able to dismantle and remove Rockery Area Number 3, which has enabled us to now effectively place waste from Brescia Principle onto that area and unconstrained the remaining development of the Brescia Principle Pit. Our twenty twenty five focus area is safe reliable of this plan, ongoing winter preparedness and as I said, further district exploration to extend life.

Moving on to the windfall project. This is a year where we are going to progress the environmental impact assessment and the EIA approval, advancing the negotiations of the impact benefit agreement with the First Nations of Waspoonape and preparing for the final investment decision, which we are targeting for Q1 of twenty twenty six. We are undertaking early construction works, placement of long lead items and updating some elements of the feasibility study. We are planning to spend around CAD $350,000,000 on some of the key priority items during the course of 2025. And we are expecting EIA approval in the second half of twenty twenty five.

We do see this again as a long life part of our portfolio. The district potential of the 2,500 square kilometers of this windfall deposit remain a strong target and the ongoing exploration of this package is a key priority. Just looking at reserves, this is just a snapshot of what I believe is some really good success in replacing reserves that are key priority assets. Our mineral resource increased by 2,200,000 ounces to 87,600,000 ounces in 2024. The gold mineral reserve pre depletion increased by 1,600,000 ounces and decreased by around 382,000 after depletion.

Pleasingly, one of the most success stories in the year is the discovery and conversion of over 1,000,000 ounces of gold at Invincible and Hamlet at St. Ives, which again demonstrates the prospectivity of that asset. And that certainly is a really good story from our point of view. Just closing out then on the opportunities. We do believe that we've got three levers to grow the value and quality of our portfolio, and we'll continue to pull all elements of those.

Firstly, we have opportunities to bolt on M and A. And if you look at the recent addition and consolidation of 100% ownership of the Windfall project, the proposed Tarquera Idiaprium JV. And we'll continue to assess opportunities in our key jurisdictions. But importantly, as Alex has said, this will be done in a way that really manages that tension between additional returns to shareholders and investing in the business for the future. Secondly, we will continue to invest in our brownfields exploration.

This has been a very successful pathway to replace reserves and replace ounces in our portfolio. And we will spend a touch over $100,000,000 in 2025, including further exploration at windfall. And lastly, as I mentioned earlier, we've reinvigorated our focus on greenfield exploration to boost our early stage project pipeline. And during that year, we've built an attractive portfolio of greenfield interests. Just moving on to our outlook.

In 2025, we are guiding to produce between 2,250,000 ounces and 2,450,000 ounces of gold. Our capital will be elevated largely through the higher spend at windfall and the St. Ives microgrid. All in sustaining cost does come off a bit, but remains slightly elevated in 2025 as we ramp up some of our priority projects between 1500 and 1650. And similarly, our all in costs slightly lower than 2024, but remaining elevated through the cycle at 1780 to 1930.

Our priorities for this year is improving our safety performance, ensuring the predictable delivery of our plan, continue to improve the quality of our portfolio through the ramp up of Solares Norte, progressing Tarko Idioprem JV and advancing the windfall project and lastly, to continue to progress our priorities against our 2,030 ESG targets. With that, I thank you for your time and listening to our presentation and open it up for questions.

Speaker 2

Thank you so much, Mike. We're going to be alternating between the questions on the webcast, which are being sent in, as well as the questions being received from the Chorus Call. So I'm going to start with the Chorus Call questions and ask Judith. I do believe Josh is in the queue, as well as Chris. So shall we take Josh and Chris' questions operator and then we will go on to the webcast ones? Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Lovely. Thank you. First question comes from Josh Wolfson of RBC. Please go ahead.

Josh Wolfson (Director, Head of Global Mining Research)

Yes. Thanks very much. Just wanted to first start off with some questions on Solaris. The recoveries were a little bit late in the fourth quarter, noting that that's sort of the first real quarter of the ramp up. When do you expect to be at steady state for the plant performance?

Mike Fraser (CEO)

Thanks. Hi, Josh. I think we're expecting by quarter four that we should be in steady state monthly production, and that will then allow us to transition into a full year in 2026 of nameplate production.

Josh Wolfson (Director, Head of Global Mining Research)

Got it. Okay. But there's maybe let me rephrase the question. Are the recoveries performing in line with your expectations at this point in the plants ramp up?

Mike Fraser (CEO)

Sorry. Yes, misunderstood. Yes, absolutely. And in fact, we are seeing better recoveries than we originally anticipated in the original design. It is early days yet.

But at this point in time, we are very happy with the recoveries that we're seeing.

Josh Wolfson (Director, Head of Global Mining Research)

Great. And then is there any perspective you can provide on what the grade forecasts are for the processing plant for Solaris over 2025? And then also maybe an idea of what the stockpile grade is?

Mike Fraser (CEO)

Josh, I think the and we it is disclosed in our mineral resource statement, but our long term grade is kind of around 10% to 11% of the entire breccia principle. That is probably pretty consistent to what we're seeing in the stockpile that we currently have in front of the mill. What we are trying to do is as we're ramping up, because obviously the ramp up curve has got some lower recoveries in the front end is to make sure that we don't put a higher grade material in. So we're trying to manage that tension of as we're ramping up to kind of try and prioritize some of the lower grade parts of that stockpile. We also have the stockpile pretty well managed.

So we've got these we've actually been able to separate out the different grades and we are trying to, with discipline and the way that we're managing the oversight on the asset, is actually manage that feed into the plant. So I think if you if I hear where you're going, it's what we're not doing is probably this year, we don't want to see a feed grade matching our long term reserve grade of the mine because that would be inefficient. And

Josh Wolfson (Director, Head of Global Mining Research)

then just one question on windfall. The spending levels are, I guess, elevated versus where our expectations were. But understandably, that's not necessarily a bad thing. It's the mine is being advanced. Is there any kind of perspective the company can provide in terms of what are the overall capital expectations, just noting that there's likely an increase versus what the prior operator had been signaling?

Mike Fraser (CEO)

Yes, Josh. And I think it's probably a little bit early for us to do that. During the course of 2025, we are going to be preparing for a final investment decision in Q1 of 'twenty six. And I think what I'd rather do is come back to the market probably by the end of Q3 or early Q4 to start providing a better signaling around that. I think it's also important for us to get through the EIA process before we really start unlocking our thinking around the asset.

But having said that, I think when you think about the original feasibility study that was completed and updated in November of twenty twenty two. Clearly, things have moved. But equally, there's opportunities that we've identified that may set us up for longer term success there that we would want to think about in the execution phase of this project. So I think we probably want to come back and unpack the full picture for windfall probably later in the year, if that's okay.

Josh Wolfson (Director, Head of Global Mining Research)

That sounds good. Sorry, I realized can I tuck in one more, if that's all right? Just on the initial reserve and reserve, sorry, I try to keep it tight, but not the case today. The one of the historical things that Cisco Cisco had signaled was this sort of material grade upside in the bulk sample versus what the resource declared. Based on the initial exploration that Goldfields doing solo now, is there any ability to incorporate that?

Have you sort of encountered a similar opportunity? Just any perspective there on the grades. Thank you. And that's it, promise.

Mike Fraser (CEO)

Yes. So Josh, I don't think there's anything that we've identified in our drilling that is any different to what we bought. So we've kind of been confident that what we bought is what we've seen. I think the opportunities as we think about what how we're going to mine is whether there's further opportunities through the way that we're going to mine this operation to change the way that we think about the extraction of the ore. Because as we know, that ore body is reasonably patchwork.

And what you don't want to do is to get into highly selective extraction techniques. So I think there's an opportunity for us, as we come back with how we're going to mine this, to really think about how we manage that tension between grade and mining costs and longevity. I don't think it changes the production profile in any way, but we probably have different thinking about how we would extract that ore body.

Josh Wolfson (Director, Head of Global Mining Research)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Chris Nicholson of RMB Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Chris Nicholson (Head of Research)

Hi, again, Mike and team. I've got three questions. Maybe I'll just answer them in turn. So I noticed on that second last slide that you presented, you talked to maintaining a production run rate of kind of 2,000,000 to 3,000,000 ounces per annum into the mid-2030s. Just as a higher conceptual level here, obviously maintaining that production rate is kind of required to bring Solaris on.

You're not obviously post 28,000,000 in the back end of the second, you're going to be bringing windfall on. In order to do that, clearly, it's not just your all in sustaining costs, it's an all in cost that's running at about $1,800 an ounce. Any kind of comment as to what type of cost run rate do you think you will need to kind of maintain that 2,000,000 to 3,000,000 ounce level into the mid-2030s?

Mike Fraser (CEO)

Yes, Chris. And I think probably it's a little early for us to kind of unpack that. And I think we certainly don't want to come out and provide with that kind of guidance now. But I think what we are very clear about is that we currently have a reserve price of around $1,500 an ounce. Certainly on an all in sustaining cost, we are our objective is to get back below that number in the not too distant future.

And then clearly, any growth that we apply over and above that has got to be invested back with discipline and also in a way that manages to that robust capital allocation framework where we both invest in the business and return cash to shareholders. So I think what I don't want you to leave with is the thought that we are going to just reinvest in the business and not return money to the shareholders. I think given the margin expansion that we're going to see in the next five years with some of the lower quality lower cost production coming on stream that we should be able to see significant margin expansion as well as that will enable us to deliver remain sector leading returns as well as investing in our business. So I think we can do both. And I think what you're going to see is our all in cost probably coming down tracking because we've got these lower cost ounces coming into the portfolio.

Chris Nicholson (Head of Research)

Okay. And then just in Australia, I've been working through my model a little bit today and it's quite hard to tell because obviously there was quite a material movements in 2024 with the rainfall and the Sundance kind of strip and opening up new sections. But fundamentally, what type of cost inflation kind of are you seeing kind of '25 maybe on the '23 level in Australia, just kind of on a smooth basis? Because it does look like, certainly on the sustaining cost, it looks like your sustaining CapEx has moved up, it's probably doubled over the last three, four years in Australia.

Alex Dall (CFO & Executive Director)

So I think, Chris, just from a pure sort of mining inflation in Australia, we've probably seen about 6% to 7% increase in costs. What you are seeing in the sustaining capital is it's been classified as sustaining because it hasn't significantly extended the reserve, but rather replaced some reserve. It's a lot of investment reinvestment in our Australian assets to set them up for the future. So and I think we will continue to see a bit of that for the next two years, particularly at Gruyere and St. Ives and a bit at Granny Smith.

So for but then we will see the benefits of a longer life and lower cost profile.

Chris Nicholson (Head of Research)

Okay. Okay. So probably expect that sustaining CapEx remain elevated from what you're saying for not just '25 or so maybe into '26. And then just last one, just sorry, and then this is just a point of clarification. I think on the original release this morning, you mentioned the number of USD 400,000,000 against windfall this year.

But I see in the slide, you've got a Canadian dollar number that's lower. Sorry, I've lost it now, it was 300 and something. What's the right number for windfall this year Or what's the difference?

Alex Dall (CFO & Executive Director)

$435,000,000 Canadian total expenditure, including exploration, G and A.

Mike Fraser (CEO)

So it's $4.00 3 Canadian and 35,000,000 of exploration.

Chris Nicholson (Head of Research)

Got it. Okay, perfect. Thank you very much. Thanks, Mike. Cheers. Thanks, Chris.

Speaker 2

And thanks, Josh. Operator, if I could just take one from the typed questions. It comes from Peter Cromridge of Merger Market. He says, please can you speak to plans for your 2025 debt maturities, Alex?

Alex Dall (CFO & Executive Director)

Thanks, Peter. So we do have the US750 million dollars bridge due this year, and we are currently exploring our various refinancing options of what we would like to do with that facility. But we will extend it into some form of longer dated term debt either in the debt capital markets or with the banks.

Speaker 2

Great. Then the next one is from Abraham Leroy. He says, A very good presentation. When do you plan to commence mining operations in the Demang mine in Ghana?

Mike Fraser (CEO)

Yes. Thanks, Abraham. And look, we are planning this year and in our guidance, it's really planned to just process stockpiles. What we would like to do though is there are a couple of smaller puts that would enable us to increase the grade feed into the plant and to supplement some of that stockpile. We would certainly like to be in a position to do that in the second half of twenty twenty five.

But in addition, we are reevaluating a modified version of a longer term cutback, which will allow us to potentially extend mining operations in the longer term. And again, as we think about Demang, it is a shorter life, what we call potentially a transition asset in our portfolio. And as we think about the longer term solution for Demang, we're also thinking about what are the right partnerships that we can look at for Demang's future because we are very clear, there are a lot of people dependent on this operation, the nearby community, and we want to make sure we do the right thing in that social context.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thanks, Mike. Operator, I think let me hand back to you. I see Adrian and Tania in the queue, so let's perhaps take their questions, and then we'll come back to the texted ones.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question comes from Adrian Hammond of SBG Securities. Please go ahead.

Adrian Hammond (Executive Director)

Thanks. Hi, Mike and Alex. Firstly, Mike, I'm just curious to see on Slide 18, you put debt holders as a priority in capital allocation. I would think equity shares would be a priority. Just curious on your thinking around that and perhaps any opportunity to increase the dividend given that you are in a very strong cash generation position.

You certainly have some upside at least on the payout ratio.

Mike Fraser (CEO)

Yes, Adrian, thanks for that. And I think the context here, we're really clear is for us to we want to maintain investment credit rating. We believe it does give us the optionality and the flexibility to actually to do things and continue to sustain our business. And so and also I think we've got to also recognize that these kind of elevated gold prices, the last thing you want to do is to be overly, overly leveraged. So we kind of want to be very disciplined about that.

I think our return, our base dividend of that 30% to 45% of normalized earnings, I think we're quite confident that we can continue to meet that requirement. And as I said, what we if we look at what the cash flow forecast is over the next few years under different scenarios, we think that we are going to be in a strong position and we can continue to reward the shareholders that stay with us as well as invest in the business for the future. But I think once you start playing with the overall balance sheet health of the company, I think we start trading on more dangerous ground, particularly when you're in a cyclical commodity, depending on your views on gold, obviously. But I think the other point we mustn't miss is that 2024 was a clear example of that combination of operating and financial leverage. And despite relatively higher gold prices even in the first half of the year with the poorer production, we really didn't deliver any meaningful cash in that first half of the year.

So I think it's prudent to be disciplined, but we also recognize that and hopefully, you've seen that by paying out 80% of our free cash flow, we've tried to reward the shareholders that have stayed with us. But Alex, I don't know if you want to add anything.

Alex Dall (CFO & Executive Director)

No, I think you've actually covered it adequately. Thanks, Mike.

Adrian Hammond (Executive Director)

Yes, I think just a follow on then for Alex. Alex, any change in the reserve gold assumption for this year? And then secondly, your company has certainly been quite active in building up renewables. What have you spent and will spend in total on that on all those projects, please?

Alex Dall (CFO & Executive Director)

Thanks, Adrian. On the first question, we did increase the reserve price from 1,400 to 1,500 this year. And then on the renewables, I will need to get back to you on the exact figures of what we have spent and what we are intending to spend. But the Synhaves microgrid remains at about that AUD 200,000,000 spend remaining. And that's the only current major renewables project in the pipeline.

We will continue to explore opportunities at South Deep because we do believe there's significant benefit to be had there. But we will not do it if it's not techno economic and value accretive to our shareholders and stakeholders.

Mike Fraser (CEO)

And the two large projects we have invested across the business, but the two large projects have been the Canessa Solar and then the Saint Aus market grid.

Alex Dall (CFO & Executive Director)

And the Canessa Solar was about ZAR 700,000,000.

Adrian Hammond (Executive Director)

Yes. No, that's clear. And then if I may add last one, Mike. You touched on the gold price, which is it's a hot topic right now, certainly at record levels. And Goldfields has had a M and A strategy for some time.

Do you think this price changes the landscape for you in terms of the M and A? And are you going to just lay low now? What do you think?

Mike Fraser (CEO)

Adrian, I think what we will continue to do is, as we always do, is continue to scan the market for opportunities that we can incrementally add value to our portfolio. But I think what we fully appreciate at these current prices, that there has been some upward pressure on stock prices. But even having said that, you still see that disconnect between some of the higher quality smaller companies that trade at trailing discounts to the underlying NAV. So I still believe there are opportunities out there. But quite clearly to the point that you make at these prices, I think sometimes price expectations are pretty high.

So we've got to be very, very disciplined about how we would pursue anything and be very clear that it's long term value accretive, not just accretive in the short term.

Adrian Hammond (Executive Director)

Great. Thanks, Mike.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Tanu Jagasconic of Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Tanya Jakusconek (Analyst)

Good afternoon, everyone, and good morning for us over here.

Mike Fraser (CEO)

Good morning, Tanya.

Tanya Jakusconek (Analyst)

Thank you so much for taking my three questions. Good morning, Mike. I just wanted to follow-up again on the M and A and the bolt on acquisitions that you've talked about. I'm just trying to figure out Sierra Corona and demand, like when do we end those mines? Like just remind me the mine life of those guys.

Mike Fraser (CEO)

So Cerro Corona, through the processing of stockpiles, we could actually continue to operate through 02/1931. We will stop mining in 2025, and largely that's because we run out of tailings capacity, not because there's no ore left in the pit. So again, this year is really a decision year for us on Cerro Corona on what we do with it. And as I've said before, I think what is also important is to keep one eye on the on what we're doing on regional exploration because what Cerro Corona does do is it provides us with a social license to operate in a very prospective regional play. On demand, again, we've got an opportunity through potential life extensions to give us another eight to ten years.

I don't believe this is a long term asset for goldfields necessarily. But importantly, we need to manage the social context and any transition of that asset has to be done with a very social responsible mindset because it is 30 kilometers away from Tarquah, and Tarquah remains a key part of our portfolio. So socially responsible transition is important. But I think as you rightly pick up, those are two kind of tail or transition assets in our portfolio that we need to find the right solution for.

Tanya Jakusconek (Analyst)

And I'm just wondering as you think about these, are you looking to replace that level of production of about 250,000 ounces? Is that what you're looking at for bolt ons in terms of, okay, I'm losing these two assets or depleting them. So we're looking in that sort of 250,000 ounces or there in terms of production to offset that decline and would part of your bolt on strategy also be taking equity investments in Juniors as well?

Mike Fraser (CEO)

Yes. So Tony, I think, firstly, I'd go back to our strategy. We are not driven by ounces per se. So losing the production out of demand and sera corona, we're still quite comfortable even if it's at the lower end of our 2,000,000 to 3,000,000 ounces. In fact, that would probably increase the quality of our portfolio by reducing costs and increasing our margin per ounce produced.

But I think to your point, the kind of targets that we'd look at bolt ons are probably production ounces of around about that 200,000 to 300,000 ounces. But more importantly, it's things that have got prospectivity and larger land packages because what we don't need to do is necessarily replace ounces for the next five years, but finding opportunities that give us production outlook for, you know, the later 2030s and into the 2040s. That's, I think, the good position that we are in. In terms of equity positions in listed entities, I think what we have done through our greenfield program is we are partnering with some junior companies to get earning rights to some prospective properties. And now these are long dated options, but I think we are very keen to be active in that area because whilst they are long dated and high risk opportunities, they certainly give us access to some really interesting positions.

But then again, things like Cisco was a deal where we actually bought out a more advanced development project. And I think those things are also equally attractive to be pursuing. But I think, again, what is really important is that we manage this balance of investing in the business and returning cash to shareholders. And I think what we are really mindful of is not to prioritize one over the other. And if we can navigate that in a sensible way, I think we deliver on the twin challenges of being a senior producer that invests in our future and regarded as a company that delivers good returns to our shareholders through the cycle.

Tanya Jakusconek (Analyst)

Mhmm. Okay. That makes sense. And just coming on returning capital to shareholders, I'm just thinking about your pipeline of your $2,000,000, 3 million dollars ounce profile. And just looking at the sustaining capital and the development capital you announced today, I mean, those were higher than I was expecting.

So should I be thinking about your business, should I be thinking a business of three fifty dollars to $400 per ounce of sustaining and a development of about $250 per annum. Should I be thinking that like maybe the $250 s over the next three years as we get windfall in and finish off Solaris Norte? Would that be fair?

Mike Fraser (CEO)

Yes. I think if you look at the next three years in the development front, we certainly the priority project for us to build over the next three years is going to be windfall. That's going to be the only material one. And Solaris, really, the capital comes off. We've got to put this year because we're still in ramp up and we're not at commercial production.

So there's that allocation to capital or growth rather than sustaining capital. I think in the next three years that $250,000,000 may be right. I've been on the sustaining side, I do think there are opportunities and we are in an elevated cycle now where we've got a lot of ventilation raises in Australia. We've got a lot of elevated capital spend. So I would hope that we find in the long run a way to reduce our overall capital build in the business and that you're going to find these kind of capital numbers that we're reporting more at the higher end of total capital spend.

But we've got to get through the next probably two years to get back into that lower capital spend cycle.

Tanya Jakusconek (Analyst)

Okay. Thank you. That's helpful. And then just maybe for 2025, as we think about this year, because it's not going to be just a divide by four quarterly. Maybe you can kind of provide some guidance.

We obviously know the ramp up of Solaris Norte is going to bring higher production in the second half. But should I be thinking a forty five first half to fifty five second half type of a production profile of forty, sixty? And is it obviously improving quarter on quarter? I'm just trying to understand if there's any downtime at any of the other operations that I need to also adjust for maintenance or schedule maintenance, etcetera?

Mike Fraser (CEO)

No. I think the bigger impact is just really that split between Solaris as we go through the ramp up. So you're quite right, there should still be a bias to the second half purely because of the strong contribution that we're expecting from Solaris. But I think you're kind of 45% to 55% is probably the not a bad way to think about it.

Tanya Jakusconek (Analyst)

Okay. And then quarter over quarter improvement. So first quarter is the lowest 4% to 5%.

Mike Fraser (CEO)

I think first quarter, second quarter probably going to be pretty similar. Third quarter might be similar to first quarter and then fourth quarter, but higher is probably the way we would think about it.

Tanya Jakusconek (Analyst)

Okay. That's really helpful. Thank you so much. And just want to say, Mike, I'm very happy to hear about the chinchillas. They've been found and moved. I'm very invested in these old chinchillas.

Mike Fraser (CEO)

Yes. Thank you. And two have now been released. So they're safely in their new territory.

Tanya Jakusconek (Analyst)

And then I guess we just have to wait for the other Rockies areas to be signed off. I mean, you've got the waste dump. That's great. And it's just everything else?

Mike Fraser (CEO)

Correct.

Tanya Jakusconek (Analyst)

Remind me what else we need to sign off on?

Mike Fraser (CEO)

Sorry, I didn't hear that.

Tanya Jakusconek (Analyst)

I just wondered what else needed to be signed off.

Mike Fraser (CEO)

So these are the ones above the Agua Marga deposit. So it goes up to Rockree number nine. Yes.

Tanya Jakusconek (Analyst)

Yes. Okay. Perfect. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Tanya. Operator, I see there's no more questions in the queue. So I'm just going to wrap up the few that I have on here. There was one from Lebou Mafokeng from Truffle Asset Management, but I think in the discussion it has been addressed. Is it possible to give us an indication of CapEx for '26 from an SIB and expansion perspective, including windfall, if possible? Just ballpark values can work, but I suppose to

Alex Dall (CFO & Executive Director)

We've addressed it. I think the one thing that will come out clear and windfall is we're not sure what that 2026 capital looks like, and we need to advance out to FID and we'll provide further clarity as that is known.

Speaker 2

Thank you. And then the next one is from Bruce Williamson from Integral Asset Management. He says, Hi, Mike. If you use 2,500 an ounce as a reserve price, what impact would this have on the total group gold production? How sensitive is the reserve to a high gold price? And how quickly could you adjust production?

Mike Fraser (CEO)

Yes. Hi, Bruce. And as you could appreciate, there's a lot of that scenario thinking that's going on in our business at the time. And it's really important that we don't get caught up in some of the elevated prices because we know from history how quickly we can turn. So it's important that we remain conservative.

But what we are looking for are those incremental opportunities where we have excess particularly where we have excess mill capacity to bring on some additional ounces. And our real opportunities stay in places like St. Ives, Granny Smith, potentially Demang and probably South Deep and probably to a lesser degree, Cerro Corona if we had tailings capacity. So we are looking at those opportunities and we are looking at different scenarios as to whether we could actually model some small proportion of our production being at a slightly different reserve price grade. So I think that that kind of work is underway.

But I think it's really, really crucial for us is not to lose discipline at this time because it's very easy to do that, but fully take on board the sentiment of not losing sight of the near term opportunities to add value. And so that is very active work underway in our business.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Mark. The last two are from Arnulfon Kraan from Nedbank. He says, do you have any plans to increase your dividend payout ratio?

Mike Fraser (CEO)

I'll ask Alex to comment on that. But, Arnold, I think we've got a very broad dividend payout ratio, to be perfectly honest. And I think it gives us a huge amount of flexibility to do what's appropriate. I think the payout ratio that we delivered this year, that 40% of normalized earnings was really good and delivered a record payout. I think I've been quite clear.

My personal preference would be to narrow that range and to give a little bit more predictability and then maybe have some kind of a top up outside of that. But I think we'll come back and think it through. I think it was the wrong time for us to be considering any of that right now because we'd certainly set an expectation of this delivery against the high end of our normalized range. And that delivered a number that I think was a very good result for our shareholders and hopefully reinforced our commitment to higher end returns compared to our peer group.

Speaker 2

And then the last one also from Arnold is, which assets do you see as noncore and could potentially dispose off?

Mike Fraser (CEO)

Yes. And I think the two that we've spoken about earlier, Arnold, is I wouldn't say they're noncore because every asset is important to us and every person that works in our business is important to us. But I think the two what we call transition assets, being Cerro Corona and Demang, are certainly kind of tail assets that we may want to transition to someone else who may be a more natural owner for these assets. So that's probably how we think about it rather. And that's why we when we think about disposals, we think about it through a heightened social responsibility lens, particularly given other interests in the areas in which those assets are based.

Speaker 2

Arnold says thank you for addressing his questions, and that's it from the question line, Mike.

Mike Fraser (CEO)

Great. Well, thank you very much. I know we are a few minutes over on our scheduled time, but I really appreciate you dialing in, really appreciate the questions. And thank you for your support and interest in Goldfields.