Grupo Financiero Galicia - Q2 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good everyone, and welcome to the second quarter 2023 earnings release call. Today's call is being recorded. Now, at this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Pablo Firvida. Please go ahead.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Thank you. Good morning, welcome to this conference call. I will make a concise introduction, and then we will take your questions. Some of the statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. federal securities laws, are subject to risk and uncertainty that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed. According to the Monthly Indicator for Economic Activity, EMAE, the Argentine economy recorded a 5.5% year-over-year contraction during May. In year-to-date terms, the economic downturn stood at -1.3%. During the first half of 2023, the primary deficit reached 1.1% of GDP.

This implied an increase against the deficit of 1% accumulated during the same period of 2022, result that was explained by revenues increasing by 90.4%, whereas primary spending rose 95.5%. The national CPI recorded a 50.7%, increasing during the first half of 2023. Including July, accumulated inflation for 2023 reached 60.2%, recording a 113.4% annual variation in the last 12 months, which entailed an acceleration against the 71% of July 2022's 12-month trailing inflation, with inflation hitting its highest mark in 30 years. On the monetary front, the Argentine Central Bank expanded the monetary base by ARS 516.3 billion in the second quarter, recording a 47.8% increase from June 2022.

The exchange rate averaged ARS 248.8 per dollar in June 2023, a 43.9% increase against the average of December, which implies a 30.5% peso devaluation. When compared to June 2022, the Argentine peso underwent a 50.7% devaluation. In June 2023, the average rate on peso-denominated private sector time deposits for 59 days stood at 92.9%, 44.5 percentage points above the average of June 2022. After the primary elections, the Argentine Central Bank devalued the peso by 17.9% to ARS 350 per dollar. Additionally, the monetary authority increased interest rates, with the monetary policy rate and the minimum rate for time deposits under ARS 30 million currently standing at 118%.

Private sector deposits in pesos averaged 21.9 trillion pesos in June, increasing 22.6% during the quarter and 115.5% in the last 12 months. Deposits in pesos rose 23.8% during the quarter and 125.8% in the year. Peso-denominated transactional deposits increased 21.2% during the second quarter and 106.9% in year-on-year terms. Private sector dollar-denominated deposits amounted to $15.5 billion at the end of the quarter, decreasing 5.2% in the quarter and 0.6% in the last 12 months.

During June, peso-denominated loans to the private sector averaged ARS 9.5 trillion, increasing 25.6% in the quarter and 86.5% when compared to June 2022. Private sector dollar-denominated loans amounted to $3.8 billion, recording an expansion of 4.6% during the quarter and of 0.3% when compared to June 2022. Turning now to Grupo Financiero Galicia, net income for the second quarter amounted to ARS 58 billion, 425% higher from the year ago quarter, mainly due to profits from Banco Galicia for ARS 51.8 billion, from Galicia Asset Management for ARS 4.4 billion, from Galicia Seguros for ARS 894 million, and from Naranja X for ARS 185 million.

This profit represented a 4.9% annualized return on average assets and a 25.9% return on average shareholder's equity. Banco Galicia net income for the quarter was 555% higher than in the year ago quarter. The net operating income increased 62%, mainly due to a 196% increase in net interest income. Average interest earning assets reached ARS 2.68 trillion, similar level to that of the same quarter of 2022. mainly due to a 14% decrease in the average volume of peso-denominated loans, offset by a 110% increase in the average volume of other interest-earning assets in ARS. In the same period, its yield increased almost 34.2 percentage points, reaching 79.1%. Interest-bearing liabilities increased 4% from June 2022, amounting to ARS 2.31 trillion.

This growth was mainly due to a 12% increase in the average balance of time deposits in pesos, offset by a 20% decrease in the average balance of peso-denominated saving accounts. During this period, its cost increased 28.2 percentage points to 56.6%. Net interest income for the quarter increased 196% from the same quarter of 2022, with interest earning income growing 131% and interest expenses growing 108% in the same period. It is worth to remember the change in the valuation model of the Argentine Central Bank paper, LELIQ, acquired from January first, 2023. These instruments used to be valued at fair value, and the criteria was changed to amortized cost. Thus, each yield is being recorded as interest income instead of within results from financial instruments.

Net fee income increased 15% from June 2022, mainly due to a 27% increase of fees related to bundle of products, a 44% increase of fees on collections, and a 19% higher fee income from deposit accounts. Net income from financial instruments decreased 73% as a consequence of the change in the valuation model of central bank paper I have just mentioned. Gains from gold and FX quotation differences were 586% higher from the year ago quarter, including the results from foreign currency trading. Other operating income increased 109% in the quarter as a result of the 138% increase in other adjustments and interest on miscellaneous receivables, as a consequence of the valuation of financial instruments granted in guarantees.

As regard provision for loan losses, the amount for the quarter was 8% lower than those recorded in the year ago quarter, reaching ARS 14.8 billion. Personnel expenses were 4% higher than in the second quarter of 2022, in line with an increase of staff, while administrative expenses were 3% higher due to a 24% increase of taxes. Other operating expenses increased 70% due to an 80% higher turnover tax, due to an increase in the gross income tax from financial operations as a consequence of the increase in the holding of LELIQs, and 57% higher charges for other provisions related to discounts on credit cards and payroll accounts. The income tax charge was ARS 17.1 billion higher than in the second quarter of 2022, with an effective tax rate of 25%.

The bank's financing to the private sector reached ARS 1.58 trillion at the end of the quarter, down 13% in the last 12 months, with peso-denominated loans decreasing 13% and dollar-denominated loans 20%. Exposure to the public sector increased 22% year-over-year, due to a 36% increase in the holding of LELIQs. Excluding the exposure to the Central Bank, LELIQs, LELIQs, and repurchase agreement transactions, net exposure represented 13% of total assets, the same level as of the end of the second quarter of 2022. Deposits reached ARS 2.95 trillion, 1% lower than a year before, mainly due to a 34% decrease of checking accounts in pesos, partially offset by a 34% higher balance of other deposits in pesos.

The bank's estimated market share of loans to private sector was 11.77%, 30 basis points lower than at the end of the year ago quarter, and the market share of deposits from the private sector was 9.92%, 24 basis points lower than in the same quarter of last year. The bank's liquid assets represented 123% of transactional deposits and 58% of total deposits, up from 91% and 50%, respectively, from a year before. As regards asset quality, the ratio of non-performing loans to total financing ended the quarter at 2.65%, recording a 49 basis points deterioration as compared to the 2.16% of the second quarter of the prior year.

At the same time, the coverage with allowances reached 161%, down 57 percentage points from the 218% recorded a year ago. As of the end of June 2023, the bank's total regulatory capital reached 23.64%, decreasing 45 basis points from the end of the same quarter of 2022. In summary, in a particularly challenging and volatile macro environment, Grupo Financiero Galicia was able to keep asset quality, liquidity, and solvency metrics at healthy levels and to significantly improve its profitability in spite of the significant impact of the high inflation of the quarter. We are now ready to answer the questions that you may have. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, simply press the star key, followed by the digit 1 on your telephone keypad. Also, if you're using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal through to our equipment. Once again, press star 1 at this time. We'll pause for a moment. We'll first hear from Brian Flores of Citibank.

Brian Flores (VP, Equity Research)

Hi, team. Good morning. Just 2, 2 questions on my side. The first one is a, is a midterm strategic one, regarding the positioning of some candidates with the Central Bank. You know, given that, you know, we now have a bit more visibility on, on what they are intending to do with the Central Bank, should we expect any reduction in your exposure before the election? If you could, you know, share any, any color or, or on your conversations that you've had with any approaches on the candidates' teams, it would be great. I'll do my second question afterwards. Thank you.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Okay. Hi, Brian. Well, when you were asking, the, the first idea that came to my mind is a statement made by the, a former congressman saying that when you are far from becoming a president, meaning you have a low percentage of votes, you can have extreme statements. And when you come closer to becoming a president because you, you, you are having more votes, you become more cautious. So many of the statements actually made by Milei, that was a surprise, with 30% of the votes, were made when he was very far from becoming president.

Still today, I think the, the, the environment or the, the situation is very open because first, the difference was very small between the three main candidates: 30% of Milei, 28% of the Juntos por el Cambio, basically Macri's party, and 27%, the Peronism, with the Kirchnerism. Between the three, 85%, with very small difference, and with 70% of the voters actually voting. This is usual that in the primaries there is a small, or smaller percentage of voters. When we become to the elections in, in October, we think that there perhaps will be more than, I don't know, 2 million voters adding to this, small difference. Really, we are in an open situation.

What we think as a clear message is that almost 2/3 of the population want some kind of change of regime. As with this change of regime, really it's very difficult to make forecasts. Some... Well, Milei, on particularly speaking about dollarization, some of his advisors are saying that it's not really a full dollarization, that will take some time in a 2nd, a wave of, of, of measures. Others speak about a, a bimonetary economy, meaning that we could have a contract in U.S. dollars. Everybody is thinking that the, the key measures to balance or improve the, the, the economy is to reduce the fiscal deficit, and we are happy with that. That would mean there will be less monetary expansion and less LELIQs going forward.

W- in the midterm strategy, as you said, we are happy with the ex-exposure to the Central Bank and with the, with the government papers, basically because we are seeing deposits growing in line with inflation and loans growing around 10 to 15 percentage points below inflation. That gap is invested in both 28 days Central Bank paper, the LELIQs, and in government paper that basically are tied to inflation and allow us to hedge against inflation. Sorry if the answer was too long, but I wanted to include the political environment, not only the potential measures of the candidates.

Brian Flores (VP, Equity Research)

No worries, Pablo, that's perfect. My second question is a bit on asset quality. Just wanted to understand what are you seeing there, because as you mentioned, loan growth is still below deposits, deposits and inflation growth. Just willing to understand a bit more what are you seeing there on asset quality? If this is a concern going forward when you decide to finally reaccelerate loan growth. Thank you.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Well, asset quality has been deteriorating slightly, really from very low levels. The, the, in the case of the bank, it became, from 2.16 to 2.65, the NPLs, so really very, very low. If you think in an economy that is not growing, this high level of inflation, economic and political uncertainty, one could think of much higher ratios of NPLs. Also, coverage is very healthy, above 160%. We could expect some slight deterioration going forward for the second half of the year, but really nothing dramatic. As I many times repeat, and sorry if I'm becoming a lot of, or I repeat a lot this concept.

As inflation is very high and many of the loans were granted very short-term with fixed interest rates, really the, the installments become diluted, and it's easy for both companies and individuals to pay back their loans. The other side of the coin is that with this high of inflation, we have a negative impact on the RECPAM in Spanish or the monetary loss due to inflation. We, we could see some slight deterioration, but nothing really dramatic. If I had to, to say, a less than 3% NPLs at the bank level at the end of the year.

Brian Flores (VP, Equity Research)

Perfect, Pablo. Just if I can, just a final question. With, with the circumstances, and this very strong quarter, are you revising your ROE guidance for 2023?

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Well, this high ROE quarter gives us a higher forecast. I would say that around 15% for the full year, the original estimates were around 10%, so in the area of 15, 14, perhaps, also. We have to see, of course, how the, the pass-through of this devaluation goes to inflation, and while inflation has a direct impact on the, this item that I mentioned, the monetary loss due to inflation, but also it has impacts on interest rates, loan demand, deposits, fees, administrative expenses, but got thinking in a, in, I would say, in the best case scenario, how we should have an increase of the, the order I, I mentioned.

Brian Flores (VP, Equity Research)

Thank you very much.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

You're welcome, Brian.

Operator (participant)

Next, we'll hear from Ernesto Gabilondo of Bank of America.

Ernesto Gabilondo (Analyst)

Thank you. Hi, good morning, Pablo and the team and thanks for taking my call. I have three questions from my side. The first one will be on the political outlook. How much power does a president have in Argentina to make decisions related to IMF negotiations or to dollarize the country, or to make changes to the central bank? I think some of the decisions need to pass through Congress, but some decisions can be taken by himself, no?

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Mm-hmm.

Ernesto Gabilondo (Analyst)

My second question will be on your investment strategy. We continue to see high inflation levels, high interest rates, a further depreciation of the currency. How is Galicia positioning to navigate under this volatility? I don't know, how are your positions in terms of bonds related to inflations or investments related to FX? It will be interesting.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Mm-hmm.

Ernesto Gabilondo (Analyst)

Then my last question is on, how should we think about the long road under these economic variables? How should we think about the ROE next year, considering that this year you, you have been benefiting because of the gains on investment securities and FX. Once we start to see a normalization, once we start to see lower rates, how should we think about the ROE? Thank you.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Hi, Ernesto. First, regarding the political power of a president, I guess you are thinking if Milei comes to office, if he will be able to put together certain reforms that he would like to have or at least he's saying that. Most of the changes must be done by law in Congress. He will not, if he repeats the election of the primaries, he will not have any, I would say, important presence in Congress, so he will need to have agreements or alliances. The most rational type of alliance would be with Macri's party, Juntos por el Cambio. Between the two, they could have a quorum and have laws that can make reforms. In terms of investments,

Ernesto Gabilondo (Analyst)

Sorry.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Sorry, I don't know if you have a comment on that.

Ernesto Gabilondo (Analyst)

That, in that question, we know that Milei will need to have agreements in order to, to make structural changes. What are the things that he can do? Now, what, what can he do?

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Well, first, in my opinion, it's not clear if his advisors fully agree with certain speeches. The, the, the, the main idea, economic idea he has been saying is dollarization. From a practical standpoint, many, even orthodox economists are saying that it's impossible, not only in the short term but in the medium term too. Others are saying that in order to get to a dollarization, you have to make a lot of homework, basically reducing the fiscal deficit and actual becoming a, a, a superavit, not a, a deficit or surplus. So this type of economy say, if you do the homework, why dollarize? It makes no sense. Others are saying that, they would like to have two currencies so that we can have contracts in dollars.

Any big reform must be, I would say, approved by Congress, and that's why I'm saying that he must negotiate and have alliances. Even as I mentioned in the past or earlier in this call, when you have, I don't know, 20% of the votes, you can say: I will close ministers, I will go from 20+ ministers to 8 and fire off all the people. Now that he got 30, he's saying: Well, I will, I will close certain ministers, I will create secretaries, not ministers, and I will not fire the people. Again, the ones that are political people that were put there as a favor. I think he will have to become part of what he's, I would say, criticizing.

He keeps speaking about the political caste or group of people with a lot of power that take decisions for themselves, but he will have to have this support and alliances in Congress. In my opinion, many of the ideas or projects will take time, and they will need some kind of support.

Ernesto Gabilondo (Analyst)

Sorry.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Well, going to the second question. Sorry. Yes.

Ernesto Gabilondo (Analyst)

Sorry. In, in the central bank, can he do some changes or he doesn't have the power to do that?

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Well, typically, all the members of the board of the Central Bank must have the approval of the Senate, of the senators. We are now with some kind of anomaly that, some members of the Central Bank are not yet approved, but they are working. The, the, the rule of law, the, the, what the law says is that the, the senators must approve the, the, the members of the board of directors of the Central Bank.

Ernesto Gabilondo (Analyst)

Okay, excellent.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

In terms of investment, first, I will mention the dollar position. We cannot be long in dollars in the spot. We have the net position must be zero. We can go long in dollars through forward contracts. That could be up to 5% of the regulatory capital. Sometimes we are longer than, or shorter, depending on the situation, what are the interest rates, the yield on different financial instruments. I would say that the risk appetite is to have this type of a government exposure, meaning the national treasury, not the Central Bank, around 13% of total assets, and basically instruments tied to inflation, that protect us against inflation with a 2-months lag.

It's, so it's not a perfect coverage, but in the medium term, it covers your liquid net worth. The third question was regarding loan growth. With this level of inflation, that implies a high level of interest rates, we are not seeing recovery in loan demand in real terms. We need definitely a change in the economic regime that will attack inflation and in a virtuous cycle. interest rates going down. We don't need inflation to go to levels of, I don't know, 10, 20% to have real long growth. Actually, with 50% inflation in the past, some quarters or years, we had positive long growth, but definitely with three-digit inflation, it's not possible.

ROEs, going forward in this scenario of virtuous cycle in my opinion, should be better for banks because loan demand will expand. Right now, loans to GDP is very, very low, around 9%, so really very low. If inflation goes down, interest rates go down, and volume expands significantly, and it helps us to make better projections and decisions to invest and to grow, not only as a bank, as a holding company, Grupo Financiero Galicia, already invested in an insurance company, and also our clients can have a clear horizon in order to invest. There are lots of projects in oil and gas, mining, agricultural sector, digital economy.

There is a lot of possibilities out there, but we need definitely a much healthier microeconomy.

Ernesto Gabilondo (Analyst)

Perfect. Thank you. Just on the last one?

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Mm.

Ernesto Gabilondo (Analyst)

Once we have better economic outlook and stronger long growth, do you think that will be enough? This year, the banks are benefiting a lot from the investment securities positions and FX. I think that is likely not to continue next year, so do you think that with stronger long growth should be able to offset a lower yield from the securities portfolio?

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Well, we, we have to see the speed of that. Many time the speeds of changes in Argentina surprise everybody, but I would say yes, the, the compression in margin should be similar, let's say, to the increase in volume in loans. With lower inflation, the, the, the monetary loss due to inflation will be lower. ROEs should be, I would say around 15%. That would be a, a target, medium-term, target, and perhaps with a much healthier mix, you know, not just from or mainly due to a high interest from the LELIQs and, and government paper.

Ernesto Gabilondo (Analyst)

Excellent. Super helpful, Pablo. Thank you very much.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

You're welcome, Ernesto.

Operator (participant)

Next, we'll hear from Yuri Fernandes of JP Morgan.

Yuri Fernandes (Executive Director, Research Analyst)

Hey, hey, Pablo. Again, I have just returning on this, on effects. If you can comment on the devalue of August and your base case for the currency during your during the year end, like if you are calling for a further devalue or not, what is your base case? You discussed your FX gap, how it increased this quarter. I guess you are you are being prepared for that, but I would like to understand, you know, like the moving parts, how this impact you, and what is your base case for a potential default in Argentina? Thank you.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Sorry, I couldn't hear you very properly. You said a potential default?

Yuri Fernandes (Executive Director, Research Analyst)

No, devaluation of the currency, right? The, the peso devaluated-

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Mm-hmm.

Yuri Fernandes (Executive Director, Research Analyst)

maybe 20% now in August.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Mm-hmm.

Yuri Fernandes (Executive Director, Research Analyst)

I guess there are some economies that they are calling for further devaluations after.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Mm-hmm

Yuri Fernandes (Executive Director, Research Analyst)

... elections. I would like to hear your base case, what?

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Mm-hmm

Yuri Fernandes (Executive Director, Research Analyst)

... Galicia is, is calling for, for potential devals-

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Mm-hmm

Yuri Fernandes (Executive Director, Research Analyst)

... and the impact for you, because it seems your balance sheet is being more prepared.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Mm-hmm

Yuri Fernandes (Executive Director, Research Analyst)

... like you're increasing your effects gap.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Mm-hmm.

Yuri Fernandes (Executive Director, Research Analyst)

Also, you know, how a potential devolve impact you. Thank you.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Okay. Well, as I mentioned, we cannot be long in US dollars, in the spots. The position must be 0. We can go long in US dollars up to 5% of our regulatory capital with forward contracts. We have one, I would say, waiver or different instrument, that is, that are the dual bonds, that with the devaluation, we get that benefit and it's not within the 0 position in the spot. In August, after this devaluation, you could see a benefit or next quarter of that devaluation. But in theory, if we sell or we have no dual bonds, there is no instant impact on devaluation. Of course, we have to look at our clients.

Really, what happens in most of the cases is that the private sector in Argentina is very long in dollars, and the public sector is the one that is short in dollars. Really, there is a kind of wealth effect with the devaluation. What is hard to forecast right now is what will be the pass-through to inflation of the devaluation of the official exchange rate, because as imports have been controlled or restricted, many importers have been pricing their products at different exchange rates, not the official one that is allowed for importers. I would say that in general, the impact for banks of devaluation is not that a direct one, comes from the impact of our clients, and again, could be, I would say, better.

One other thing is that most of the economists are saying that the, the financial dollars are too expensive and the, the official one, perhaps is, is too cheap, so something, but with this 20% increase to $350, we are getting closer to a more, I would say, rational dollar or FX equilibrium. We don't need to go to $650 or $700. The, the, the good exchange rate must be much lower than that.

Yuri Fernandes (Executive Director, Research Analyst)

Got it. Basically, you make more money on financial income, on the deval, but also higher inflation hurts your results from net monetary, like, the, the inflation results. One offsets the other, but maybe your clients, they make more money, you have more deposits, so net, net, maybe, maybe it's more positive if there are further devals, devaluations in Argentina, right? Is that correct?

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Yes, yes. One thing, if there is a normalization of the FX market, let's say, instead of having so many, exchange rates, the one that would be, at the end in the market, perhaps being much lower than the current financial, dollars, could imply that, the conversion of our numbers from pesos to dollars will be done at a, a lower exchange rate, and we could have, an improvement in, in valuations, because right now, the blue chip swap appears to be very high.

Yuri Fernandes (Executive Director, Research Analyst)

Okay. No, thank you. Pablo, just returning to the previous discussions about Milei and the dollarization of the economy. I guess Ocampo has been a little bit more, you know, well, it may take some time, as you said, 10 months.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Mm-hmm

Yuri Fernandes (Executive Director, Research Analyst)

... two years. How to do that? Like, like, how to replace the inaudible and how to, you know, implement some dollarization. Do you have any guess on how to, how to do it?

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

There were some interviews in which he said that he would create a trust in which the government or the Central Bank will include all the government paper they have. Even they say what the public pension fund has in different financial assets, equity, bonds, and so on. You know, they will get $, and this fund in this virtuous cycle will be able to be revalued. The second question would be if there is a dollarization, what the government would do with the government bonds in ARS.

In many times, these type of projects are easy to, to comment in a, in a, in an Excel or in a PowerPoint, but again, it's very difficult to, to implement. Again, I, I heard many of the Milei's advisors that are not or don't agree really with all the, with all the ideas or procedures. Really, it's not very certain to, to comment on that. Now, it's like a more than a rumor, but it's not a fact to comment on this type of ideas.

Yuri Fernandes (Executive Director, Research Analyst)

No, super clear. Thank you very much, Pablo.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

You're welcome, Yuri.

Operator (participant)

Next, we hear from Carlos Gomez-Lopez of HSBC.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez (Head of LatAm Financials Research)

Hello, good morning, and congratulations on, on a very strong result. I had, I had two questions. The first one refers to your margin. I mean, this is the reason why your interest income is so high. You, you went from a NIM, as reported by you, from 19 to 28%. Is this just a result of interest rates going up, or is there something else, perhaps some timing differences or some particular instruments that yield the extraordinary gains? Is this a normal interest rate, interest income that you would receive for as long as interest rates stay at the current levels, or actually they're higher than they were when, when you had this? Essentially, how much of this interest income is your ordinary interest income, and how much could be special for some reason or another?

The second question, totally unrelated, is, what's happening with Naranja X? You have been almost at breakeven for 2 quarters. Is there anything that is happening at the consumer subsidiary, and what can we expect for it going forward? Thank you.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Well, hi, Carlos Gomez. As you said, there was a margin expansion. I would say that the main reason are the LELIQs and the government paper, there were a very high, not only high interest rates and yields, there were also some sales of certain instruments at good prices. If I had to say. Well, it's very volatile, and we have to see if the interest rate keeps at this level of 118%, but actually this new level was established after the close, or in actually, in August. Not, we are not seeing those numbers in the second quarter release we are discussing.

Perhaps, there we will-- there could be some contraction, but 200 basis points or so, because we are in a very high interest rate environment, due to the high inflation. In the case of Naranja, if you look at, or Naranja X, as it was called or rebaptized, when you look at the net operating income or operating income, you see a growth. Actually, the operating income has a 40% growth compared to the second quarter of the previous year. The thing is that the results from the monetary position had a big impact, and also they had a much higher income tax. They are very sensitive to high inflation, so the, the, the bottom line is subject to, to, to this impact on, on high inflation.

From an operational standpoint, is doing very well, growing not only with the traditional business of, of credit cards, but also with the, the newer business of taking deposits, in order to have a cheaper funding, and having more merchants and becoming a full digital company. Basically, the from an operational standpoint, no problem, very sensitive to high inflation.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez (Head of LatAm Financials Research)

Okay. Okay. Going back to the margin, so again, you say that, I mean, as you said, the, the latest increase in interest rate, 218%, came after the end of the quarter.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Mm-hmm.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez (Head of LatAm Financials Research)

All else being equal, should we expect, therefore, your interest income and your margin to be higher in the third quarter than in the second quarter?

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

The thing is that we, we had some sales of some instruments with a gain. That's why I'm saying that perhaps we will see some kind of compression.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez (Head of LatAm Financials Research)

Okay.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Yes, keeping, taking out that, with higher interest rates, typically we have a higher margins.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez (Head of LatAm Financials Research)

Mm-hmm.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Although, as you can see, the breakdown of deposits have been changing, and each time, we have a higher percentage of deposits with cost. In, if I have 1 year ago, perhaps if you look at deposits in pesos.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez (Head of LatAm Financials Research)

Mm-hmm

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

... they used to be 50% time deposits, 50% transactional accounts, now it's closer to 75, 25. 75 with cost. That's why you are seeing lower balances of, checking accounts or saving accounts and, growing balances of time deposits and other remunerated, deposits.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez (Head of LatAm Financials Research)

Okay. Final thing, your interest income this quarter was ARS 199 billion.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Mm-hmm.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez (Head of LatAm Financials Research)

How much of that would be represented by these gains from the sales of instruments?

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

I would say, $10 billion or so.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez (Head of LatAm Financials Research)

That's not much.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

The thing is that, there are many, moving parts if you, forecast, next quarter, financial income. For example, what I mentioned regarding the, the bonds, tied to inflation, the government paper, the LECER or BONCER, the ones that are just by CPI, they have a lag of 2 months. If inflation grows, in, in the third quarter, despite being, us being hedged, we, we will-

Carlos Gomez-Lopez (Head of LatAm Financials Research)

Right

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

... get part of that in the fourth quarter. That's why it's not so direct, the, the, the impact.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez (Head of LatAm Financials Research)

Okay. All right, now it's not a straightforward, but, but again, everything indicates, and given that inflation is still on the way up, that you might continue to have higher interest income in the third and in the fourth quarter. I'm trying to reconcile that with the fact that you, you are saying we, y- you may have a 15% ROE for the year.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Mm-hmm.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez (Head of LatAm Financials Research)

Everything would seem to indicate that, you know, that, that's a very modest goal and that you may very well be at a higher level than that.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Well, depending on the assumptions you have on monthly inflation from now on, that's very, very sensitive. Again, if you have, let's say, a 10% monthly inflation in August, you will get the benefits of the CPI adjusted bonds two months later. With this big volumes or stocks of bonds tied to inflation, it has an important impact, this two months delay. Thank you so much. You're welcome, Carlos.

Operator (participant)

Next, we'll hear from Nicolas Riva of Bank of America.

Nicolas Riva (Managing Director, Head of Latin America Credit Research)

Thanks, Pablo, for taking my question. I just have a follow-up on what you were discussing with, with Yuri, your net position in US dollars. You mentioned, if I understood correctly, that you cannot be net long US dollars in the spot market, and only up to 5% of your equity in, in forward positions. Now, if I look at the disclosure you have on your FX position-

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Mm-hmm.

Nicolas Riva (Managing Director, Head of Latin America Credit Research)

There, you mentioned the assets, the liabilities in dollars.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Mm-hmm.

Nicolas Riva (Managing Director, Head of Latin America Credit Research)

I do see a net long position of about, at the official exchange rate, so I'm seeing essentially $1.2 billion, $1.2 billion net long at the end of June, and your position in forwards is very, very small.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Mm-hmm.

Nicolas Riva (Managing Director, Head of Latin America Credit Research)

I wanted to reconcile that with your comment, saying that you cannot be net long in the spot market.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Yes. There is what I kind of mentioned in some other question and answer, that the dual bonds are classified as dollars in that in that chart or in these numbers that you mentioned, and the same with LEDES. LEDES are in our assets, both the dual bonds and the LEDES are in dollars, in in that position. They are both not considered in dollars for the regulatory net position. You, you would have to deduct almost exactly the same number, $1.2 billion are LEDES plus dual bonds at the official exchange rate of, at the end of June, right? I, I, I don't know if I was clear. Basically, you have to deduct these two amounts.

Nicolas Riva (Managing Director, Head of Latin America Credit Research)

Okay. I guess, Pablo.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

The kind of waiver of the central bank.

Nicolas Riva (Managing Director, Head of Latin America Credit Research)

L-l-l-let, let's say that, let's say that in the, in the fourth quarter, you know, changing government and they lift all the restrictions in FX, and the official FX, FX jumps basically two times to the level of, of, of the blue FX. In that case, would you have big, paper gains, like gains in, in your income statement because of that or not?

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

If we have, for example, the dual bonds, yes, if we have forward contracts, yes, for the rest, it should be neutral because we must have a 0 position. Again, we have to see, other type of, of things of, of not only our clients, but also if, if we have what percentage of our expenses are in dollars, our subordinated bond, the $250 million, but there are many, other, I would say, byproducts of, of that. Again, I would like to, to say that in our opinion, if there is going to be a devaluation with the next, government, it shouldn't be, that high. The, the, the financial dollars today are too, too high, you know?

The, the blue chip swap, the, the blue dollar in the street, so most of the economists are saying that should be something in the middle or even lower than in the middle.

Nicolas Riva (Managing Director, Head of Latin America Credit Research)

Okay. Thanks very much, Pablo.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

You're welcome, Nicholas.

Operator (participant)

It appears there are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to our presenter for any additional or closing comments.

Pablo Firvida (Investor Relations Officer)

Okay. Thank you all for attending this call. If you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. Good morning. Bye-bye.

Operator (participant)

That does conclude today's call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.