Executive Summary

Q3 2021 delivered a sharp rebound: revenue rose to $31.8M (+944.6% YoY), gross margin turned positive to 19.9%, and EPS was $0.14, driven largely by institutional sales to the local government under the Nanyuan II project .
Profitability inflected meaningfully: net income was $3.6M vs a $(2.6)M loss in Q3 2020; operating income reached $4.8M vs $(2.5)M a year ago .
Liquidity and leverage remain central: construction loans totaled $119.4M and accounts payable were $20.1M; management disclosed substantial doubt about going concern given COVID-19 uncertainties and debt maturities, albeit with expectations to renew loans and strong pre-sales support .
No formal quantitative guidance and no earnings call transcript were available; narrative suggests continued focus on Liangzhou Road-related developments and government-supported urban renovation as key catalysts for cash generation .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Revenue and EPS inflection: Q3 revenue reached $31.8M (+944.6% YoY) and EPS was $0.14, reflecting higher GFA sold and a significant institutional sale to the local government; “Total revenues… were approximately $31.8 million… due to more gross floor area sold during the current quarter” .
Margin recovery: gross margin improved to 19.9% from negative 46.4% in Q3 2020, with ~$5.8M gross profit from Nanyuan II contributing to the turn .
Project pipeline momentum: management highlights advancing Liangzhou Road-related projects (Oriental Garden Phase II, Liangzhou Mansion, Pearl Commercial Plaza) and expects government approvals and pre-sales to support operations; “We expect… to obtain the government’s approval… and start the pre-sale… to generate cash” .

What Went Wrong

Going concern risk disclosed: management states “the above-mentioned facts raise substantial doubt about the Company's ability to continue as a going concern,” citing COVID-19 uncertainties, extended operating cycle, and large near-term obligations .
Leverage and payables elevated: construction loans were $119.4M and accounts payable $20.1M, underscoring refinancing and cash conversion execution risk .
U.S. tax filings delinquent: the company’s U.S. federal and Florida returns are delinquent since 2009, with an additional ~$0.8M provision recorded for delinquent filings (on top of a prior ~$2.3M transition tax) .

Financial Results

Consolidated Quarterly Metrics (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q3 2020	Q1 2021	Q2 2021	Q3 2021
Revenue ($USD)	$3,046,430	$2,755,262	$18,278,112	$31,824,097
Gross Profit ($USD)	$(1,414,040)	$878,082	$3,688,682	$6,329,872
Gross Margin (%)	(46.4)%	—	—	19.9%
Operating Income ($USD)	$(2,464,762)	$492,812	$3,128,527	$4,837,719
Net Income ($USD)	$(2,575,173)	$291,587	$2,221,237	$3,628,654
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$(0.11)	$0.01	$0.10	$0.14

Project Revenue Breakdown – Q3 2021

Project	Revenue ($USD)	Mix (%)
Nanyuan II (sold to local government)	$29,107,272	91.5%
Yangzhou Palace	$2,716,825	8.5%
Total Real Estate Sales (pre-tax)	$31,824,097	100%
Sales Tax	$(197,537)	—

KPIs and Balance Sheet Highlights

KPI	Q3 2021	Notes
ASP – Yang County (9M) ($/m²)	$670	Slightly down vs $687 in 9M 2020
ASP – Hanzhong (9M) ($/m²)	$621	Up vs $569 in 9M 2020
Customer Deposits ($USD)	$22,814,868	Pre-sales cash advances
Real Estate Completed Inventory ($USD)	$92,799,351	Available for sale
Construction Loans ($USD)	$119,391,636	Government-linked facilities
Accounts Payable ($USD)	$20,128,624	Subcontractor payments
Cash and Restricted Cash ($USD)	$3,706,583	Liquidity level

Guidance Changes

No formal quantitative guidance was issued in Q3 2021. Management commentary indicates expectations to renew construction loans, commence/continue pre-sales on Liangzhou Road-related projects, and rely on customer deposits to fund construction.

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue	FY2021/Q4	N/A	None provided	N/A
Gross Margin	FY2021/Q4	N/A	None provided	N/A
OpEx	FY2021/Q4	N/A	None provided	N/A
Tax Rate	FY2021/Q4	N/A	None provided	N/A
Segment-specific	FY2021/Q4	N/A	Focus on Liangzhou-related projects; approvals/pre-sales expected	Narrative only
Dividends	Ongoing	N/A	None indicated	N/A

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

No Q3 2021 earnings call transcript was available. Themes below reflect disclosures in the 10-Q and press releases across Q1–Q3.

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2)	Current Period (Q3 2021)	Trend
Sales Mix (Gov’t)	Institutional sales not highlighted; Q2 cited revenue growth on GFA sold	91.5% of Q3 sales to local government under Nanyuan II	Increasing institutional (gov’t) contribution
COVID-19 Impact	Recovery underway; prior periods depressed by lockdowns	COVID did not have a material net impact in 9M 2021, but future uncertainty persists	Operational recovery; risk remains
Regulatory/Macro	Tightening measures in PRC real estate referenced	Continued emphasis on PRC cooling measures and approvals affecting timelines	Persistent headwind
Project Approvals	Awaiting government acceptance on municipal/road projects	Liangzhou Road substantially completed; related projects initiated, approvals ongoing	Gradual progress
Liquidity/Leverage	Construction loans and customer deposits support operations	$119.4M construction loans; $22.8M deposits; going concern doubt disclosed	Elevated risk; reliance on renewals

Management Commentary

“We sold all residential units in Nanyuan II project to the local government for residence reallocation purposes… representing 91.5% of our revenue in this quarter” .
“We expect that we will be able to renew all of the existing construction loans upon their maturity and borrow additional new loans… [and] cash flows from pre-sales and current sales should provide financial support” .
“The above-mentioned facts raise substantial doubt about the Company's ability to continue as a going concern” .
“Consumer spending has been restored in the local real estate market… real estate sales are expected to grow in the coming periods” .

Q&A Highlights

No earnings call transcript was found for Q3 2021; therefore, no analyst Q&A highlights or live guidance clarifications are available for this period. Disclosure relies on the 10-Q and 8-K press release .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus estimates for Q3 2021 (EPS, revenue, EBITDA, target price) were unavailable for GGE due to missing CIQ mapping in the SPGI data feed; as a result, we cannot present a beat/miss analysis versus Wall Street expectations for this quarter [SpgiEstimatesError from tool].

Key Takeaways for Investors

The quarter’s strength was predominantly from a one-off institutional sale (Nanyuan II) to the local government; sustainability hinges on continued approvals and execution of Liangzhou Road-related developments .
Margin profile improved materially YoY (19.9% vs. -46.4%) on mix and absence of impairment; watch for margin durability as sales mix normalizes beyond government-led transactions .
Balance sheet leverage and payables necessitate tight cash management; renewal of government-linked construction loans and conversion of $92.8M completed inventory will be pivotal near-term .
Going concern language introduces tail risk; while management expects loan renewals and pre-sales support, investors should monitor approvals, customer deposit trends, and debt extension outcomes .
No formal guidance and no call transcript reduce visibility; near-term trading likely tied to headlines on project approvals, government acceptance, and additional institutional sales .
Compliance overhang: delinquent U.S. tax filings and related provisions warrant attention as potential non-operating cash outflows/timing considerations .

Additional Source Documents Read:

Q3 2021 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 press release with full financial statements .
Q2 2021 8-K press release with full financial statements .
Q1 2021 8-K press release with full financial statements .
Full Q3 2021 10-Q with MD&A, liquidity, project updates, and risk disclosures .

Green Giant Inc. (GGE)·Q3 2021 Earnings Summary