Guild Holdings Co (GHLD)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Solid quarter with originations of $7.4B, net revenue of $307.4M, GAAP diluted EPS $0.53 and adjusted diluted EPS $0.75; year-over-year swing from a net loss of $66.9M in Q3’24 to net income of $33.3M in Q3’25 .
• Beat vs Wall Street: Adjusted EPS $0.75 vs $0.53 consensus (+~42.8% surprise)* and revenue (SPGI definition) $336.7M vs $313.4M consensus (+~7.4% surprise); catalysts were stronger loan origination economics and a smaller MSR valuation loss than prior quarter.
• Mix and margins: Gain-on-sale margin expanded to 347 bps (Q/Q +18 bps; Y/Y +14 bps) with 86% purchase mix (vs MBA 67%) supporting retail-driven profitability .
• Servicing tailwinds: MSR valuation headwind improved to $(29.0)M (vs $(41.3)M in Q2), lifting servicing segment net income to $44.5M .
• No earnings call or forward guidance given the pending Bayview merger; company highlighted strong liquidity (cash $106.4M; 1.9x leverage) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Margin and mix strength: Gain-on-sale margin rose to 347 bps; 86% purchase mix underpinned retail channel resilience .
  • Servicing profitability improved: Servicing net income $44.5M with a narrower MSR valuation loss of $(29.0)M vs Q2, aided by stable recapture (49% refi, 23% purchase) .
  • Management tone: “Another quarter of solid performance across both our retail origination and servicing platforms…successful execution of our balanced business model,” said CEO Terry Schmidt .

• What Went Wrong

  • Limited transparency: No earnings call and no forward guidance due to pending merger, reducing near‑term visibility .
  • MSR marks still a headwind: Although improved, valuation adjustment remained negative $(29.0)M, exposing results to rate volatility .
  • Slight sequential volume dip: Total originations slipped to $7.39B from $7.47B in Q2, despite favorable mix and margins .

Financial Results

• GAAP and adjusted results vs prior periods

• Segment breakdown

• KPIs

• Balance sheet and liquidity (Q3 2025): Cash $106.4M; unutilized loan funding capacity $2.1B; unutilized MSR lines $294.5M; leverage ratio 1.9x; tangible book value/sh $16.35 .

Guidance Changes

No quantitative forward guidance provided; management refrained from hosting a call due to the pending merger .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• Strategy and momentum: “Our team delivered another quarter of solid performance across both our retail origination and servicing platforms…successful execution of our balanced business model” .
• Growth focus: “We delivered strong year-over-year increases in adjusted net income, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted return on average equity…as we focus on our customer-for-life strategy” .
• Capital and liquidity: Management highlighted $106.4M in cash, $2.1B unutilized loan funding capacity, unutilized MSR lines of $294.5M and 1.9x leverage, underscoring balance sheet flexibility .

Q&A Highlights

• No Q&A this quarter. The company did not host a conference call due to the pending merger with a Bayview Asset Management–managed fund .

Estimates Context

Notes: Primary EPS consensus mean and revenue consensus mean retrieved from S&P Global; company’s adjusted diluted EPS is used for “actual EPS.” Values retrieved from S&P Global.
EPS consensus mean and actual; Revenue consensus mean and actual: GetEstimates (Primary EPS Consensus Mean, Revenue Consensus Mean) for Q3 2025.*

Interpretation: The beat was driven by higher net revenue from originations and a smaller MSR valuation loss versus Q2, alongside expansion in gain-on-sale margins . Estimates may move up modestly for near-term profitability given stronger margin realization, though the lack of guidance and merger-related quiet period temper visibility .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Positive inflection vs last year: From $(66.9)M net loss in Q3’24 to $33.3M net income and $0.75 adjusted diluted EPS in Q3’25, reflecting improved economics across origination and servicing .
• Clear beat vs Street on both adjusted EPS and revenue (SPGI), driven by stronger gain-on-sale margins and reduced MSR valuation drag; setup is constructive into Q4 barring rate shocks.*
• Retail purchase franchise remains a competitive advantage (86% purchase mix) and supported gain-on-sale margin expansion to 347 bps .
• Servicing segment earnings resiliency: Net income of $44.5M despite ongoing MSR marks; recapture metrics (49% refi; 23% purchase) support lifetime economics .
• Liquidity and capital intact: $106.4M cash, $2.1B unutilized loan funding capacity, $294.5M MSR lines, and 1.9x leverage provide operating flexibility through macro volatility .
• Limited near-term disclosure (no call/guidance) due to pending Bayview merger; near-term trading may hinge on deal milestones and macro rates as much as fundamentals .
• One-time cash return delivered: $0.25 per share special cash dividend was paid on Sep 2, 2025 .

Appendix: Additional Detail

• Adjusted metrics methodology excludes change in fair value of MSRs (model inputs/assumptions), change in fair value of contingent liabilities/notes receivable related to acquisitions, amortization of acquired intangibles, stock-based compensation, merger-related expenses, and applies tax effects .
• MSR retention: Company retained MSRs on 67% of total loans sold in Q3’25 .
• Conference call policy this quarter: None held due to the pending merger .

S&P Global estimate data note: Values retrieved from S&P Global.*