GC
GRAHAM CORP (GHM)·Q1 2026 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 FY26 delivered solid execution: revenue grew 11% YoY to $55.5M with gross margin up 170 bps to 26.5% and adjusted EBITDA margin at 12.3% as aftermarket mix and pricing/execution improved .
- Results vs consensus: EPS of $0.45 beat the Street’s $0.235*, while revenue of $55.5M came in modestly below the $56.6M* consensus; 4 estimates for both metrics (significant EPS beat, slight revenue miss). Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
- Defense momentum and visibility remain key: orders were $125.9M, book-to-bill 2.3x, and backlog a record $482.9M (≈87% defense), with ~35–40% expected to convert in 12 months; torpedo order of $25.5M will hit Q2 orders .
- Guidance maintained: FY26 outlook for revenue ($225–$235M), GM (24.5–25.5%), adj. EBITDA ($22–$28M), tax (20–22%), capex ($15–$18M) reiterated; management flagged more material receipts later in the year which typically carry lower margins .
- Strategic investments remain on schedule (30k sq ft Batavia facility; automated welding; Florida cryogenic test facility), underpinning multi‑year margin expansion and growth targets into FY27 .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
-
What Went Well
- Aftermarket strength and mix drove margin expansion: gross margin rose to 26.5% (+170 bps YoY) as aftermarket mix improved and pricing/execution contributed; adjusted EBITDA margin rose 200 bps YoY to 12.3% .
- Record defense-driven backlog and strong orders: Q1 orders were $125.9M (incl. $86.5M Virginia-class follow-on), book-to-bill 2.3x, backlog $482.9M with ~87% defense and 35–40% 12‑month conversion .
- Strategic capex on track: “completed the expansion of our Batavia defense facility,” 6 automated welding machines installed, and cryogenic testing facility “expected to be operational this quarter” .
-
What Went Wrong
- Revenue slightly below consensus: Q1 revenue was $55.487M vs $56.588M* consensus; a modest top‑line shortfall despite strong YoY growth. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
- Gross margin likely normalizing lower in H2: CFO highlighted more material receipts (lower margin) expected later in FY26, implying GM normalization within guidance rather than sustaining Q1’s 26.5% .
- Space segment remained small and volatile: sales down YoY to $3.378M (6% of total) and flat sequentially, with management noting early‑stage programs and low-rate production pacing .
Financial Results
Segment sales mix and levels
Key performance indicators
Consensus vs actual (Q1 FY26)
Non-GAAP adjustments: adjusted EPS adds back acquisition-related items and intangible amortization and applies a normalized tax rate; adjusted EBITDA excludes interest, taxes, D&A and certain ERP/equity comp costs (see reconciliations) .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Revenue increased 11% to $55,500,000… driven by increased sales in our energy and process markets… along with strong aftermarket performance that was 33% higher than the prior year.”
- “We… achieved a strong book to bill ratio of 2.3 times… driving our backlog to a company record of $482,900,000… with approximately 35% to 40% expected to convert to revenue over the next twelve months.”
- “We received our certificate of occupancy in July for the 30,000 square foot Batavia manufacturing facility… six automated welding machines… Our new cryogenic propellant testing facility in Florida… expected to be operational this quarter.”
- “Net income… was $4,600,000 or $0.42 per diluted share… Adjusted net income… $0.45… adjusted EBITDA… $6,800,000… 12.3%.”
- “For the 2026, the impact of tariffs was not material… we estimate… increased tariffs for the full year to only be between $2,000,000 and 5,000,000.”
- “We are reiterating our full year fiscal twenty twenty six outlook…”
Q&A Highlights
- Margin sustainability: Higher aftermarket mix (20% of sales vs 15% YoY) and favorable mix drove Q1 margins; management expects normalization within guidance as more lower‑margin material receipts flow through later in the year .
- Defense aftermarket opportunity: Overhaul and spares for fleet maintenance (e.g., torpedoes) are growing; Colorado overhaul facility is modernized and active .
- Orders timing: The $25.5M MK-48 torpedo follow-on will be recorded fully in Q2 (post quarter-end) .
- Space: Low-rate production across new launch providers and applications (e.g., oxygen fan, satellite cooling) with early but increasing pipeline interest; cryo testing facility seen as a differentiator .
- Tariffs mitigation: Network of in‑country partners and favorable contract clauses reduce exposure; Q1 impact not material, but the $2–$5M full‑year range remains the working assumption .
Estimates Context
- Q1 FY26 vs consensus (S&P Global): EPS $0.45 vs $0.235* (beat); revenue $55.487M vs $56.588M* (slight miss); 4 estimates for both metrics.* Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Outlook for estimates: Guidance unchanged; models may need to reflect management’s commentary that mix will normalize (more material receipts, lower margins) despite strong aftermarket contribution in Q1 , and incorporate the $25.5M torpedo order flowing into Q2 orders .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Execution remains solid with expanding margins on healthy aftermarket and disciplined pricing; adj. EBITDA margin at 12.3% supports the glidepath to low‑mid‑teens by FY27 if capex benefits land on time .
- Backlog and defense awards (Virginia-class, torpedoes) provide multi‑year revenue visibility; ~35–40% 12‑month conversion underpins FY26 guide .
- Near‑term catalyst: Q2 orders to include $25.5M torpedo award; continued Navy platform demand and overhaul/spares can support aftermarket and profitability .
- Watch margin normalization: management cautioned more material receipts with lower margins later in FY26; do not extrapolate Q1 gross margin without adjustment .
- Strategic investments (automated welding, cryo testing, ERP) are nearing operational readiness—potential 2026–27 efficiency and capacity unlocks .
- Space and New Energy (SMRs/cryogenics) are early but building; pipeline interest in testing could open incremental revenue streams .
- Guidance intact despite tariff overhang; company mitigates via contract terms and supply chain localization; current impact was not material in Q1 .
Appendix: Additional Detail
Cash, liquidity, and capex
- Cash used in operations (-$2.3M) driven by FY25 bonus payments (incl. $4.3M Barber‑Nichols earnout); cash $10.8M; no debt; $44.3M availability on revolver; Q1 capex $7.0M .
Non-GAAP reconciliations
- Adj. EBITDA reconciliation and adj. EPS normalization disclosed; adj. net income adds back amortization and ERP costs, applies normalized tax .
Webcast logistics
- Call held Aug 5, 2025; replay and transcript available per IR site details .