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GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. (GILD)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Base business sales excluding Veklury rose 4% to $6.3B, while total revenue was flat at $6.67B; non-GAAP diluted EPS was $1.81. Gilead beat Street EPS but missed on revenue: EPS $1.81 vs consensus $1.776*, revenue $6.67B vs $6.82B* .
- HIV strength offset oncology softness and COVID normalization: Biktarvy +7% to $3.1B and Descovy +38% to $586M; Veklury -45% to $302M; Trodelvy -5% to $293M; Cell Therapy -3% to $464M .
- FY25 guidance largely unchanged except GAAP EPS lowered to $5.65–$6.05 (from $5.95–$6.35); product sales $28.2–$28.6B, ex‑Veklury $26.8–$27.2B, Veklury $1.4B, non‑GAAP EPS $7.70–$8.10 unchanged .
- Near-term catalysts: FDA PDUFA June 19 for twice‑yearly lenacapavir PrEP; ASCENT-03 readout later in Q2; S&P upgraded Gilead to A- (stable), highlighting HIV outlook and cash flow .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Base business growth and disciplined costs drove strong non‑GAAP margins: product gross margin 85.5% and operating margin 43.4% .
- HIV leadership continued: “Our base business grew 4% year-over-year, primarily led by Biktarvy’s continued strength,” — CEO Daniel O’Day . Biktarvy U.S. share reached 51% per CCO .
- Pipeline/regulatory momentum: FDA accepted NDAs for lenacapavir PrEP with June 19 PDUFA; EMA validated MAA and EU‑M4all applications under accelerated review; EC granted conditional approval for seladelpar (Livdelzi) in PBC .
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What Went Wrong
- COVID normalization: Veklury sales down 45% YoY to $302M on lower hospitalization rates .
- Oncology softness: Trodelvy -5% YoY on inventory/pricing mix; Cell Therapy -3% (Yescarta +2% offset by Tecartus -22%) amid competitive headwinds .
- Part D redesign headwind: management expects HIV reported sales to be flat in 2025 despite demand growth, with ~$1.1B total impact (≈$0.9B to HIV) and increased manufacturer contribution .
Financial Results
Summary vs prior quarters and estimates
Values marked * are from S&P Global consensus estimates (Primary EPS Consensus Mean; Revenue Consensus Mean). Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Segment breakdown (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)
Product KPIs (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)
Consensus detail (Q1 2025)
Values marked * are from S&P Global consensus estimates (Primary EPS Consensus Mean; Revenue Consensus Mean; counts). Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Gilead had a strong start to the year driven by excellent commercial and clinical execution along with disciplined expense management…our base business grew 4% year-over-year, primarily led by Biktarvy’s continued strength,” — Daniel O’Day, CEO .
- “Product sales, excluding Veklury of $6.3 billion were up 4% year-over-year… Sequentially, sales were down 12% as expected, mainly due to inventory dynamics,” — Johanna Mercier, CCO .
- “First quarter operating margin was 43%… non-GAAP diluted EPS was $1.81,” — Andrew Dickinson, CFO .
- “We remain on track for the June 19 PDUFA date [lenacapavir for PrEP] and the potential launch in the U.S. immediately following,” — Daniel O’Day .
- “Trodelvy plus pembrolizumab demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in progression free survival in 1L PD‑L1+ mTNBC,” — Dietmar Berger, CMO .
Q&A Highlights
- PrEP access ramp: ~75% coverage at 6 months, ~90% at 12 months; early medical exceptions expected; launch operations across buy‑and‑bill and specialty pharmacy pathways .
- CDC/HHS budget uncertainty: No change to lenacapavir launch plans; Gilead engaging policymakers; continued market development for PrEP .
- Part D redesign impact: Guidance assumptions unchanged; ~$1.1B total impact (≈$0.9B HIV); HIV demand‑led growth obscured in 2025 .
- Trodelvy sales dynamics: Q/Q lower demand from strong Q4 and inventory; YoY -5% driven by inventory/pricing; competitive impact limited so far .
- Tariffs: Indirect tariffs absorbed; FX tailwinds help offset; guidance reaffirmed .
Estimates Context
- EPS beat, revenue miss: Q1 non‑GAAP EPS $1.81 vs $1.776* (+$0.03), revenue $6.67B vs $6.82B* (‑$0.16B). Beat driven by cost discipline and lower R&D/SG&A; miss driven by Veklury normalization and oncology softness . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Estimate implications: HIV demand strong but Part D reduces reported growth; Veklury guidance held at $1.4B despite Q1 variability (update deferred until Q3), which may temper near‑term revenue revisions; Trodelvy clinical momentum could support 2026 trajectory despite near‑term inventory effects .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Core HIV franchise resilient: Biktarvy demand and share gains, Descovy PrEP strength; reported 2025 HIV sales likely flat due to Part D, but volume growth intact .
- Near-term catalyst path: Lenacapavir PrEP PDUFA June 19 with launch readiness; potential ASCENT‑03 update later this quarter; Trodelvy ASCENT‑04 supports 1L TNBC expansion .
- Margin quality: Non‑GAAP product gross margin 85.5% and operating margin 43.4% underscore disciplined execution; cash generation $1.76B operating cash flow in Q1 .
- Oncology mixed near term: Trodelvy and cell therapy face inventory/competition headwinds, but medium‑term prospects buoyed by positive data and anito‑cel path to 2026 .
- Guidance steady ex‑GAAP EPS: FY25 revenue/ex‑Veklury/non‑GAAP EPS maintained; GAAP EPS lowered on amortization/tax effects. Macro/tariffs manageable per CFO .
- Capital & rating: Ongoing dividends/buybacks; S&P upgrade to A‑ reflects strong HIV outlook and cash flows—a supportive credit signal .
- Trading lens: Near term, watch PrEP approval/access ramp and Trodelvy data cadence; medium term, HIV long‑acting portfolio and oncology execution drive thesis .
Notes:
- Consensus values marked * are from S&P Global.