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GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. (GILD)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Solid Q3 with revenue and EPS beats vs consensus; total revenue $7.77B and non-GAAP EPS $2.47, aided by a non-recurring $400M “royalty, contract and other revenue” item contributing ~$0.25 to EPS; base business (ex-Veklury) grew 4% YoY on HIV and Livdelzi strength .
  • HIV outperformed: Biktarvy +6% YoY to $3.69B; Descovy +20% YoY to $701M. Yeztugo (lenacapavir) achieved ~75% U.S. payer coverage nearly three months ahead of plan, setting up a 2026 ramp .
  • Guidance raised: FY25 total product sales low end +$100M to $28.4–$28.7B and GAAP EPS to $6.65–$6.85; non-GAAP EPS nudged up to $8.05–$8.25 .
  • Strategic catalysts: Biktarvy LOE in the U.S. pushed out to 2036 via settlements; Trodelvy 1L mTNBC data (ASCENT-03) positive and in NEJM; PEPFAR partnership for lenacapavir PrEP accelerates global access .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • HIV momentum: HIV product sales +4% YoY to $5.28B; Biktarvy +6% YoY to $3.69B; Descovy +20% YoY to $701M driven by demand and prevention market growth .
    • Coverage and launch execution: “We have already achieved our 75% access goal, nearly three months ahead of our target,” on Yeztugo, positioning for 2026 acceleration .
    • Oncology progress: ASCENT-03 showed PFS 9.7 vs 6.9 months (38% risk reduction), published in NEJM; potential 2026 1L mTNBC launch .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Cell Therapy pressure: Product sales -11% YoY and sequentially to $432M on competitive headwinds; FY25 Cell Therapy now forecast ~10% decline YoY .
    • Veklury normalization: Sales -60% YoY to $277M on lower COVID-19 hospitalizations, weighing on total product sales YoY .
    • Pricing headwinds: HIV growth partially offset by lower average realized price; Trodelvy down 2% sequentially on inventory dynamics and lower ex-U.S. ARP .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Revenues ($M)$6,667 $7,082 $7,769
Product Sales ($M)$6,613 $7,054 $7,345
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$1.04 $1.56 $2.43
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$1.81 $2.01 $2.47

Segment revenue mix ($M):

SegmentQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
HIV$4,587 $5,088 $5,277
Liver Disease$758 $795 $819
Oncology$757 $849 $788
Other$209 $202 $184
Veklury$302 $121 $277
Total Product Sales$6,613 $7,054 $7,345

Select product sales ($M):

ProductQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Biktarvy$3,150 $3,530 $3,686
Descovy$586 $653 $701
Trodelvy$293 $364 $357
Cell Therapy (Yescarta+Tecartus)$464 $485 $432
Veklury$302 $121 $277

KPIs and cash flow:

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Product Gross Margin (GAAP)76.7% 78.7% 78.6%
Product Gross Margin (Non-GAAP)85.5% 86.9% 86.5%
Operating Margin (GAAP)33.6% 34.9% 42.8%
Operating Margin (Non-GAAP)43.4% 46.5% 50.5%
Operating Cash Flow ($M)$1,757 $827 $4,109
Free Cash Flow ($M)$1,653 $720 $3,962

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Product SalesFY 2025$28.3–$28.7B $28.4–$28.7B Raised low end
Product Sales ex VekluryFY 2025$27.3–$27.7B $27.4–$27.7B Raised low end
VekluryFY 2025$1.0B $1.0B Maintained
GAAP Diluted EPSFY 2025$5.85–$6.15 $6.65–$6.85 Raised
Non-GAAP Diluted EPSFY 2025$7.95–$8.25 $8.05–$8.25 Raised low end
Non-GAAP Operating IncomeFY 2025$13.0–$13.4B $13.1–$13.4B Raised low end
GAAP Effective Tax RateFY 2025~21% ~16% (incl. Oct tax settlement) Lowered
Non-GAAP Effective Tax RateFY 2025~19% ~19% Maintained
Quarterly DividendQ3 vs Q4 2025$0.79 declared for Q3’25 $0.79 declared for Q4’25 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
HIV franchise growthQ1: HIV +6% YoY; Biktarvy +7% YoY; Descovy +38% YoY . Q2: HIV +7% YoY; Yeztugo approved; Global Fund access plan .HIV +4% YoY; raised FY HIV growth to ~5% despite ~$900M Part D headwind .Strengthening; resilient through policy headwinds.
PrEP/Yeztugo launchQ1: PDUFA set for June 2025 . Q2: U.S. approval; WHO/EMA support; Global Fund agreement .75% U.S. access achieved ahead of plan; 3Q sales $39M; ramp sets up 2026; white-bagging > buy-and-bill near-term .Accelerating access; gradual volume ramp.
Cell TherapyQ1: -3% YoY; mixed Yescarta/Tecartus . Q2: -7% YoY; competitive headwinds persist .-11% YoY & seq; FY25 now ~10% decline; pipeline advancing, center additions .Pressured near-term; pipeline optionality.
TrodelvyQ1: positive topline 1L PD‑L1+ mTNBC with pembro . Q2: positive topline ASCENT‑03/04 showcased .ASCENT‑03 detailed: PFS 9.7 vs 6.9 months; 38% risk reduction; NEJM; sBLAs filed; 2026 decision targeted .Building toward earlier-line launch.
Biktarvy LOEPrior: LOE a watch item.Settlements push earliest U.S. generic to Apr 1, 2036, >2 years later than prior projection .Major de‑risking.
Tariffs/IRA/macroPrior: IRA headwinds monitored .Known tariffs manageable in 2025; Part D redesign ~$900M HIV headwind unchanged .Managed.

Management Commentary

  • “We continue to deliver on Gilead's robust portfolio… multiple potential product launches in 2026… and no major loss of exclusivity expected until 2036.” — Daniel O’Day, CEO .
  • “We benefited from a $400M contribution in royalty, contract and other revenues… a nonrecurring accounting item… contributing approximately $0.25 after tax.” — Andrew Dickinson, CFO .
  • “We have already achieved our 75% [Yeztugo] access goal, nearly three months ahead of our target.” — Joanna Mercier, CCO .
  • “Trodelvy… 9.7-month median PFS vs 6.9 months… 38% reduction in disease progression or death… results published in NEJM.” — Dietmar Berger, CMO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Yeztugo patient flow and mix: Early switches from long-acting injectable competitor, branded oral (Descovy), and generics; white-bagging currently ~70–80% of channel mix with buy-and-bill to build after J‑code adoption .
  • Access quality: High-80s percent of covered lives with zero copays; limited and simple prior auth/step edits; aim for ~90% coverage by end of first year .
  • PrEP market growth: Management frames U.S. PrEP market growth at ~14–15% as a reasonable assumption into 2026 .
  • HIV growth vs Part D: HIV growth would be ~8–9% absent ~$900M Medicare Part D redesign headwind; FY HIV growth raised to ~5% .
  • HDV (Hepcludex) U.S. filing confidence supported by additional data and EU real‑world experience; market opportunity aligns with Gilead’s HBV footprint .

Estimates Context

Actuals vs S&P Global consensus (Primary EPS, Revenue, EBITDA):

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
EPS (Primary) – Consensus Mean1.78*1.96*2.14*
EPS (Primary) – Actual1.81*2.01*2.47*
Revenue ($) – Consensus Mean6,823,316,310*6,964,468,030*7,458,523,190*
Revenue ($) – Actual6,667,000,000*7,082,000,000*7,769,000,000*
EBITDA ($) – Consensus Mean3,423,000,000*4,109,622,820*4,586,668,920*
EBITDA ($) – Actual3,262,000,000*3,464,000,000*4,200,000,000*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Context: Q3 delivered EPS and revenue beats; EBITDA trailed consensus. Management emphasized a one-time $400M “other revenue” that added ~$0.25 to EPS and does not recur, which should be considered in models .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Core beat with caveat: Strong EPS/revenue beats vs consensus, but ~3–4% of total revenue and ~$0.25 of EPS were from a non-recurring other-revenue recognition; underlying base business grew 4% YoY ex‑Veklury .
  • HIV engine accelerating: Biktarvy and Descovy remain robust; Yeztugo access milestones achieved early, supporting a 2026 ramp; FY HIV growth raised to ~5% despite ~$900M Medicare Part D headwind .
  • De-risked LOE: Biktarvy U.S. LOE pushed to 2036 via settlements, materially improving medium-term cash flows and strategic optionality .
  • Oncology optionality: Trodelvy first-line mTNBC data de-risks 2026 launch potential; broader oncology pipeline (domvanalimab/zimberelimab) has upcoming readouts .
  • Kite near-term drag: Cell Therapy remains pressured; FY25 guided to ~10% decline; monitor competitive dynamics and 2026 anito-cel launch timeline .
  • Guidance bias: Raised FY product sales (low end), GAAP EPS, and non-GAAP EPS (low end); tax rate guidance lowered on settlement; room for HIV upside and Cell Therapy downside intra-quarter .
  • Policy and access: Tariffs manageable; PEPFAR/Global Fund partnership accelerates global lenacapavir access at no profit, reinforcing strategic positioning .

Management Commentary (Extended)

  • “With multiple potential product launches in 2026… strongest clinical pipeline in Gilead’s history… no major loss of exclusivity expected until 2036” — Daniel O’Day .
  • “$400M… nonrecurring accounting item… did not impact product gross margin… ~$.25 after tax” — Andrew Dickinson .
  • “Biktarvy’s… U.S. market share… record high of ~52% in the third quarter” — Joanna Mercier .
  • “Yes2Go… strong endorsement in new U.S. CDC guidelines… 75% access… with very limited prior auth and basically zero copays” — Joanna Mercier .

Additional Q3 Press Release (Relevance)

  • PEPFAR partnership to deliver lenacapavir PrEP for up to 2 million people over three years in LLMICs; coordinated with Global Fund; provided at no profit until generics meet demand .

Why the Quarter Looked the Way It Did

  • Beat drivers: HIV demand and mix; Livdelzi momentum; non-recurring $400M other revenue uplift; disciplined OpEx drove non-GAAP margin expansion to 50.5% .
  • Misses/pressures: Cell Therapy competition; Veklury normalization; price/mix headwinds in HIV partially offsetting demand .
  • Guidance: HIV outperformance offset by weaker Cell Therapy; tax settlement lowered GAAP ETR; Veklury maintained at $1B .