GS
GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. (GILD)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Solid Q3 with revenue and EPS beats vs consensus; total revenue $7.77B and non-GAAP EPS $2.47, aided by a non-recurring $400M “royalty, contract and other revenue” item contributing ~$0.25 to EPS; base business (ex-Veklury) grew 4% YoY on HIV and Livdelzi strength .
- HIV outperformed: Biktarvy +6% YoY to $3.69B; Descovy +20% YoY to $701M. Yeztugo (lenacapavir) achieved ~75% U.S. payer coverage nearly three months ahead of plan, setting up a 2026 ramp .
- Guidance raised: FY25 total product sales low end +$100M to $28.4–$28.7B and GAAP EPS to $6.65–$6.85; non-GAAP EPS nudged up to $8.05–$8.25 .
- Strategic catalysts: Biktarvy LOE in the U.S. pushed out to 2036 via settlements; Trodelvy 1L mTNBC data (ASCENT-03) positive and in NEJM; PEPFAR partnership for lenacapavir PrEP accelerates global access .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
-
What Went Well
- HIV momentum: HIV product sales +4% YoY to $5.28B; Biktarvy +6% YoY to $3.69B; Descovy +20% YoY to $701M driven by demand and prevention market growth .
- Coverage and launch execution: “We have already achieved our 75% access goal, nearly three months ahead of our target,” on Yeztugo, positioning for 2026 acceleration .
- Oncology progress: ASCENT-03 showed PFS 9.7 vs 6.9 months (38% risk reduction), published in NEJM; potential 2026 1L mTNBC launch .
-
What Went Wrong
- Cell Therapy pressure: Product sales -11% YoY and sequentially to $432M on competitive headwinds; FY25 Cell Therapy now forecast ~10% decline YoY .
- Veklury normalization: Sales -60% YoY to $277M on lower COVID-19 hospitalizations, weighing on total product sales YoY .
- Pricing headwinds: HIV growth partially offset by lower average realized price; Trodelvy down 2% sequentially on inventory dynamics and lower ex-U.S. ARP .
Financial Results
Segment revenue mix ($M):
Select product sales ($M):
KPIs and cash flow:
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We continue to deliver on Gilead's robust portfolio… multiple potential product launches in 2026… and no major loss of exclusivity expected until 2036.” — Daniel O’Day, CEO .
- “We benefited from a $400M contribution in royalty, contract and other revenues… a nonrecurring accounting item… contributing approximately $0.25 after tax.” — Andrew Dickinson, CFO .
- “We have already achieved our 75% [Yeztugo] access goal, nearly three months ahead of our target.” — Joanna Mercier, CCO .
- “Trodelvy… 9.7-month median PFS vs 6.9 months… 38% reduction in disease progression or death… results published in NEJM.” — Dietmar Berger, CMO .
Q&A Highlights
- Yeztugo patient flow and mix: Early switches from long-acting injectable competitor, branded oral (Descovy), and generics; white-bagging currently ~70–80% of channel mix with buy-and-bill to build after J‑code adoption .
- Access quality: High-80s percent of covered lives with zero copays; limited and simple prior auth/step edits; aim for ~90% coverage by end of first year .
- PrEP market growth: Management frames U.S. PrEP market growth at ~14–15% as a reasonable assumption into 2026 .
- HIV growth vs Part D: HIV growth would be ~8–9% absent ~$900M Medicare Part D redesign headwind; FY HIV growth raised to ~5% .
- HDV (Hepcludex) U.S. filing confidence supported by additional data and EU real‑world experience; market opportunity aligns with Gilead’s HBV footprint .
Estimates Context
Actuals vs S&P Global consensus (Primary EPS, Revenue, EBITDA):
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Context: Q3 delivered EPS and revenue beats; EBITDA trailed consensus. Management emphasized a one-time $400M “other revenue” that added ~$0.25 to EPS and does not recur, which should be considered in models .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Core beat with caveat: Strong EPS/revenue beats vs consensus, but ~3–4% of total revenue and ~$0.25 of EPS were from a non-recurring other-revenue recognition; underlying base business grew 4% YoY ex‑Veklury .
- HIV engine accelerating: Biktarvy and Descovy remain robust; Yeztugo access milestones achieved early, supporting a 2026 ramp; FY HIV growth raised to ~5% despite ~$900M Medicare Part D headwind .
- De-risked LOE: Biktarvy U.S. LOE pushed to 2036 via settlements, materially improving medium-term cash flows and strategic optionality .
- Oncology optionality: Trodelvy first-line mTNBC data de-risks 2026 launch potential; broader oncology pipeline (domvanalimab/zimberelimab) has upcoming readouts .
- Kite near-term drag: Cell Therapy remains pressured; FY25 guided to ~10% decline; monitor competitive dynamics and 2026 anito-cel launch timeline .
- Guidance bias: Raised FY product sales (low end), GAAP EPS, and non-GAAP EPS (low end); tax rate guidance lowered on settlement; room for HIV upside and Cell Therapy downside intra-quarter .
- Policy and access: Tariffs manageable; PEPFAR/Global Fund partnership accelerates global lenacapavir access at no profit, reinforcing strategic positioning .
Management Commentary (Extended)
- “With multiple potential product launches in 2026… strongest clinical pipeline in Gilead’s history… no major loss of exclusivity expected until 2036” — Daniel O’Day .
- “$400M… nonrecurring accounting item… did not impact product gross margin… ~$.25 after tax” — Andrew Dickinson .
- “Biktarvy’s… U.S. market share… record high of ~52% in the third quarter” — Joanna Mercier .
- “Yes2Go… strong endorsement in new U.S. CDC guidelines… 75% access… with very limited prior auth and basically zero copays” — Joanna Mercier .
Additional Q3 Press Release (Relevance)
- PEPFAR partnership to deliver lenacapavir PrEP for up to 2 million people over three years in LLMICs; coordinated with Global Fund; provided at no profit until generics meet demand .
Why the Quarter Looked the Way It Did
- Beat drivers: HIV demand and mix; Livdelzi momentum; non-recurring $400M other revenue uplift; disciplined OpEx drove non-GAAP margin expansion to 50.5% .
- Misses/pressures: Cell Therapy competition; Veklury normalization; price/mix headwinds in HIV partially offsetting demand .
- Guidance: HIV outperformance offset by weaker Cell Therapy; tax settlement lowered GAAP ETR; Veklury maintained at $1B .