Executive Summary

Q1 delivered record revenue ($395.2M, +5.1% YoY) and record AFFO ($272.0M, +5.2% YoY), but GAAP diluted EPS of $0.60 missed Wall Street consensus ($0.74*) largely due to a higher non-cash credit loss provision tied to a more pessimistic macro outlook .
Revenue came in essentially in-line ($395.2M vs $396.9M* consensus), while AFFO/share rose to $0.96 from $0.92 YoY, supported by recent acquisitions, lease escalators, and development funding .
Full-year 2025 AFFO guidance was modestly updated to $1.109–$1.118B ($3.84–$3.87 per diluted share/OP units) vs prior $1.105–$1.121B ($3.83–$3.88); management cited the removal of a Pinnacle escalator assumption at the high end .
Potential stock catalysts: Q2 dividend raised to $0.78 (from $0.76) post-quarter, ongoing Chicago development milestones (272/331 caissons installed; steel arriving July), and active deal pipeline/sale-leaseback dialogue amid macro volatility .

Note: Asterisked estimate figures are from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Record Q1 top-line and cash-flow metrics: revenue $395.2M (+5.1% YoY), AFFO $272.0M (+5.2% YoY), and Adjusted EBITDA $360.1M (+8% YoY), driven by acquisitions, escalators, and development activity .
- Strong balance sheet and leverage: management highlighted annualized net debt/EBITDA of ~4.7x and well-laddered maturities, positioning GLPI to be opportunistic and pre-fund growth .
- Clear development progress and tenant alignment: CEO emphasized Chicago is “well underway” with 272 of 331 caissons installed; GLPI is providing project expertise and funding support to tenants (e.g., Bally’s Chicago, Belle of Baton Rouge) .
What Went Wrong
- EPS miss vs consensus: Diluted EPS $0.60 vs $0.74* consensus; CFO cited an ~$18M YoY increase in operating expenses primarily from higher non-cash credit loss provision on a more pessimistic economic forecast .
- High-end guidance trimmed: Full-year AFFO per share high-end lowered modestly as the Company assumes Pinnacle escalator will not be achieved; development funding timing also trimmed to ~$375M from ~$400M (timing-driven) .
- Execution timing risks: Chicago timing remains subject to construction and municipal approvals; management acknowledged residual uncertainty while reiterating project momentum and risk-capped funding structure .

Financial Results

Overall results and trajectory

Metric	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Total Revenue ($M)	$376.0	$389.6	$395.2
Net Income ($M)	$179.5	$223.6	$170.4
Diluted EPS ($)	$0.64	$0.79	$0.60
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$333.4	$354.0	$360.1
AFFO ($M)	$258.6	$269.7	$272.0
AFFO per diluted share/OP units ($)	$0.92	$0.95	$0.96
Net Income Margin (%)	47.8% (179.5/376.0)	57.4% (223.6/389.6)	43.1% (170.4/395.2)

Results vs. estimates

Metric	Q1 2025 Actual	Q1 2025 Consensus	Q4 2024 Actual	Q4 2024 Consensus
Revenue ($M)	395.2	396.9*	389.6	391.5*
Diluted/Primary EPS ($)	0.60	0.74*	0.79	0.73*

Q1 2025 revenue was essentially in-line, while EPS missed. Q4 2024 revenue was slightly below; EPS beat. Asterisked consensus values from S&P Global.

Segment/lease-level revenue detail (Q1 2025 “Total income from real estate”)

Lease/Loan	Q1 2025 ($M)
Amended PENN Master Lease	76.897
PENN 2023 Master Lease	64.414
Amended Pinnacle Master Lease	91.337
Caesars Master Lease	24.480
Boyd Master Lease	26.545
Bally’s Master Lease	28.966
Bally’s Master Lease II	9.002
Maryland Live! Lease (Cordish)	24.808
Pennsylvania Live! Master Lease (Cordish)	15.339
Casino Queen Master Lease	7.973
Tropicana Las Vegas Lease	3.760
Rockford Lease	2.547
Rockford Loan	3.000
Tioga Downs Lease	4.226
Strategic Gaming Leases	2.699
Ione Loan	0.459
Bally’s Chicago Lease	— (reported $5.0M land rent with $(5.0)M straight-line adjustment)

KPIs and capital structure

KPI	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Cash & Equivalents ($M)	—	$462.6	$168.9
Long-term Debt, Net ($B)	—	$7.736	$6.889
Weighted Avg Debt Rate	—	5.090%	5.064%
Weighted Avg Years to Maturity	—	5.9	6.3
Rating (S&P/Fitch/Moody’s)	—	BBB- / BBB- / Ba1	BBB- / BBB- / Ba1

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
AFFO ($B)	FY 2025	$1.105–$1.121B	$1.109–$1.118B	Narrowed/maintained range (low end up, high end down)
AFFO per diluted share/OP units ($)	FY 2025	$3.83–$3.88	$3.84–$3.87	Narrowed/maintained; high end trimmed
Development funding in outlook	FY 2025	~ $400M	~ $375M	Lower timing (deferred)
Dividend (declared)	Q1 2025	—	$0.76 per share	Declared in-quarter
Dividend (announced post-Q1)	Q2 2025	$0.76 prior run-rate	$0.78 per share	Raised $0.02 QoQ

Management clarified the high-end trim reflected the assumption that Pinnacle’s variable escalator will not be achieved; other guidance assumptions unchanged (e.g., forward settlement, funding plan) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3’24 and Q4’24)	Current Period (Q1’25)	Trend
Chicago (Bally’s) development	Q3: Land acquired; $20M annual rent; blended initial yield ~8.3% across Bally’s package . Q4: 2025–27 funding cadence, project cornerstone .	272/331 caissons installed; steel arriving July; GLPI providing expertise; funding structure caps exposure .	Progressing; execution risk acknowledged but controlled.
AFFO outlook and escalators	2025 AFFO initially $1.105–$1.121B; included ~$400M development funding .	AFFO updated to $1.109–$1.118B; funding ~$375M; remove Pinnacle escalator at high end .	Range narrowed/maintained; timing shifts.
Balance sheet and leverage	Revolver upsized to $2.09B and extended; active capital markets access .	~4.7x net debt/EBITDA; prefunding strategy; capacity for pipeline .	Stable to improving flexibility.
Pipeline/M&A/sale-leasebacks	Active dialogues with operators; multiple 2024 deals incl. Bally’s, Strategic, Tioga .	Counterparties “more attentive” given macro; exploring sale-leaseback and M&A .	Opportunity set firming.
Regulatory/iGaming and supply	Prior caution on expansion and iGaming cannibalization risk .	Cautious on iGaming; prefer tethered to brick-and-mortar; watch SE U.S. supply .	Cautious stance maintained.
Tariffs/macro	Monitored in prior periods .	Tariff impact likely limited; many big items domestically sourced/locked; structure caps rent math .	Risk monitored; manageable.

Management Commentary

CEO (Peter Carlino): “It’s another good quarter for us... Chicago... is well underway... 272 of [331 caissons] are done... steel... expected to arrive sometime in July...” .
CFO (Desiree Burke): “Total income from real estate exceeded [Q1’24] by over $19 million... increases in cash rent of over $26 million... escalators and percentage rent adjustments... added approximately $6.7 million... operating expenses increased by $18 million, mainly from a noncash... provision for credit losses...” .
CIO (Matthew Demchyk): “Our leverage is very healthy at 4.7x annualized net debt to EBITDA... maturities well laddered... prefunding capital strategy designed to reduce risk...” .

Q&A Highlights

Chicago execution/timing: Project is “coming out of the ground;” GLPI monitors intensively; deal structure has pay-along-the-way and capped exposure .
Development funding cadence: 2025 guidance reduced to ~$375M (from ~$400M) on timing; still back-end loaded; only ~$12M funded in Q1 .
Guidance guardrails: Low-end would imply no variable escalators (e.g., Boyd) plus higher variable-rate debt cost on ~$930M floating exposure .
Pipeline and pricing: Counterparties more open amid macro; GLPI seeks to keep spread vs cost of capital; active in traditional sale-leasebacks and selective M&A .
Regulatory/iGaming: Company cautious; favors models tethered to brick-and-mortar; monitoring SE U.S. expansion potential .
PENN Council Bluffs: Up to $150M financing at 7.10% cap available at PENN’s discretion; structure could be rent or a prepayable 5-year term loan .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025: Revenue $395.2M vs $396.9M consensus (roughly in-line); EPS $0.60 vs $0.74 consensus (miss). Q4 2024: Revenue $389.6M vs $391.5M consensus (slight miss); EPS $0.79 vs $0.73 consensus (beat). Target price consensus ~$53.72* .
Given the EPS miss, models may adjust for (1) non-cash credit loss provision sensitivity and (2) removal of Pinnacle escalator at the high end, while preserving growth from escalators, acquisitions, and development funding .

Asterisked values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Cash-flow engine intact: Record AFFO and Adjusted EBITDA underscore the durability of triple-net gaming rents plus escalators and recent asset additions .
The EPS miss was largely non-cash: Higher credit loss provision (macro-driven) weighed on GAAP EPS but is added back in AFFO; AFFO/share rose to $0.96 .
2025 guidance effectively maintained: Range narrowed ($3.84–$3.87); high end trimmed due to Pinnacle escalator assumption; development funding shifted to ~$375M .
Balance sheet readiness: ~4.7x leverage, extended revolver, and forward settlement planned (June) position GLPI to pursue accretive funding opportunities without stretching risk .
Chicago progress is a watch item: Clear construction milestones and risk-managed funding structure; continued updates could influence sentiment .
Dividend momentum: Q2 dividend raised to $0.78, signaling confidence in cash flows and capital allocation .
Near-term trading setup: Expect focus on (i) Chicago execution cadence, (ii) escalator realization across master leases, and (iii) deal flow/returns as counterparties become “more attentive” in a volatile macro .

Sources

Q1 2025 8-K/Press Release and Exhibits: Financials, guidance, portfolio and lease data, capitalization .
Q1 2025 Press Release (GlobeNewswire) duplicative details (financials, portfolio, cap structure) .
Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript: Prepared remarks and Q&A .
Prior quarters for trend: Q4 2024 8-K (record Q4, 2025 initial guidance, capital updates) ; Q3 2024 8-K (Bally’s package, Chicago land, AFFO/growth context) .
Post-quarter dividend increase: Q2 2025 dividend press release .

Estimates disclaimer: Asterisked consensus values are from S&P Global.

Gaming & Leisure Properties, Inc. (GLPI)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary