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GREENLIGHT CAPITAL RE, LTD. (GLRE)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record underwriting performance: combined ratio improved to 86.6% (best in company history) with net underwriting income of $22.3M; however, investment losses (-$17.4M) drove a GAAP net loss of -$4.4M (-$0.13) and a modest 0.4% q/q decline in fully diluted BVPS to $18.90 .
  • Open Market segment delivered an 84.5% combined ratio; Innovations posted 96.7% underwriting CR but was hit by a $16.4M write-down on its largest investment, leading to an $11.3M net segment loss .
  • Capital actions strengthen flexibility: term loan refinanced into a $50M revolver; October debt reduced to ~$20M; new Citibank LoC for Funds at Lloyd’s freed ~$60.7M cash; subsequent AM Best upgrade to “A” (Excellent) provides an additional tailwind .
  • Outlook: Management expects to renew most non-cat open market business and “perhaps grow somewhat” despite softening, with Innovations continuing strong organic growth; Hurricane Melissa is a Q4 event and not expected to be significant for GLRE .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Record underwriting quarter: combined ratio of 86.6% and $22.3M underwriting income, driven by strong underlying profitability and a benign catastrophe quarter; CEO: “lowest in the Company’s history” and “robust performance in our underwriting book” .
    • Segment execution: Open Market combined ratio improved to 84.5%, supported by Funds at Lloyd’s growth and selective reductions in casualty exposure .
    • Balance sheet and ratings momentum: refinanced debt into a revolver, reduced leverage post-quarter, established new LoC for Lloyd’s, and subsequently achieved an AM Best upgrade to “A” (Excellent) .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Investment drag: total investment loss of -$17.4M (Solasglas -3.2% and an Innovations revaluation), pivoting the quarter to a -$4.4M net loss despite record underwriting .
    • Innovations valuation impairment: $16.4M write-down on the highest valued investment, leading to an $11.3M net loss for the segment; expense ratio also elevated as the business scales .
    • Modest book value dip: fully diluted BVPS decreased 0.4% q/q to $18.90, reflecting the investment loss despite share repurchases and underwriting strength .

Financial Results

Quarterly performance vs prior year and prior quarter

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net premiums earned ($USD Millions)$151.9 $161.6 $165.4
Net underwriting income ($USD Millions)$6.1 $8.1 $22.3
Combined ratio (%)95.9% 95.0% 86.6%
Total investment income (loss) ($USD Millions)$30.3 $(7.8) $(17.4)
Net income (loss) ($USD Millions)$35.2 $0.3 $(4.4)
Diluted EPS ($)$1.01 $0.01 $(0.13)
Fully diluted book value per share ($)$18.72 (FY’24) $18.97 $18.90

Segment performance

Segment (3Q)Net premiums earned ($USD Millions)Underwriting income ($USD Millions)Combined ratio (%)
Open Market Q3 2024$126.6 $6.9 94.5%
Open Market Q3 2025$144.4 $22.2 84.5%
Innovations Q3 2024$21.8 $1.4 93.6%
Innovations Q3 2025$21.0 $0.7 96.7%

Select KPIs and balance sheet

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Gross premiums written ($USD Millions)$247.9 $179.6 $184.4
Loss ratio (%)72.9% 61.9% 53.6%
Acquisition cost ratio (%)27.8% 29.0% 28.4%
Underwriting expense ratio (%)3.9% 4.1% 4.6%
Share repurchases ($)$5.0M $2.0M
Debt outstanding ($USD Millions, quarter-end)$59.8 $58.9 $34.7

Notes: CFO indicated October debt reduced further to ~$20M and a new LoC for Funds at Lloyd’s released $60.7M of cash .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Open Market renewal outlookNear-term renewalsNot previously quantifiedExpect to renew most non-cat business; rates/terms remain attractive despite softening; modest growth possible Updated qualitative
Innovations growthOngoingNot previously quantifiedExpect continued strong organic growth and new business opportunities Updated qualitative
Hurricane Melissa impactQ4 2025N/ADo not expect a significant loss; event is in Q4 New disclosure
Innovations expense ratioMulti-quarterN/AElevated near term as business scales; expected to normalize with growth New disclosure
Capital structureNear-termTerm loan outstandingReplaced with $50M revolver; debt reduced further post-Q3 Improved flexibility

No formal numerical revenue/EPS margin guidance provided.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Catastrophe exposure/seasonalityQ1: California wildfires added 14 pts to CR; reserves strengthened; benign cat otherwise . Q2: benign cat; CR 95% .Q3: benign cat; record CR; Hurricane Melissa is Q4 event, not expected to be significant .Improving; lower cat losses in Q2–Q3.
Casualty repositioningQ1: Non-renewing open market casualty; migrate to Innovations; strengthened prior casualty reserves . Q2: casualty top-line declining as planned .Mix shift remains; Open Market growth from FAL, financial and specialty .Positive risk selection/mix quality.
Funds at Lloyd’s (FAL)Q2: FAL a key growth driver .Continued growth; new LoC facility (GBP 45M) released $60.7M cash .Scaling with improved capital efficiency.
Investment stanceQ1: Solasglas +7.2%; lower gross/net exposure in bearish tilt . Q2: -4% with short squeezes; net exposure ~2% .Q3: -3.2%; avoiding AI cohort; core gold and SOFR positions; net exposure ~25% end-Q3, ~20% end-Oct; +1.6% Oct .Defensive, selective risk-on in Oct.
Macro/tariffsQ1: Tariffs could lift rebuild costs; mixed exposure impact . Q2: Activity front-ran tariff implementation; expect reversal .Maintains macro hedges (SOFR, inflation swaps); caution outside AI cohort .Neutral-to-cautious.
Capital and leverageQ2: Ongoing buybacks; monitoring capital .Refinanced to revolver; reduced debt to ~$20M in Oct; improved ROE potential .Strengthening flexibility.
Ratings trajectoryAM Best upgraded to “A” (Excellent) post-quarter .Positive inflection.

Management Commentary

  • CEO (underwriting): “combined ratio of 86.6%, the lowest in the Company’s history… supported by robust performance in our underwriting book and favorable catastrophe loss activity.”
  • CEO (investments/Innovations): “Solasglas … lost 3.2%… we suffered a net unrealized loss of $11.3M on our Innovations Investment portfolio,” including a “$16.4M write-down of our highest valued investment… idiosyncratic… we hold our innovations investments for the long term.”
  • CEO (outlook): “We do not expect a significant loss [from Hurricane Melissa]… we expect to renew most of our non-cat business and perhaps grow somewhat… Innovations… continued strong organic growth.”
  • Chairman (strategy): “Outside of the boom surrounding a handful of AI… we are simply not comfortable underwriting long investments within the AI ecosystem… Solasglas returned 1.6% in October.”
  • CFO (capital): “Replaced [term loan] with a five-year $50 million revolver… subsequently… repaid an additional $15 million and currently have $20 million of debt outstanding… new LoC facility… Lloyd’s… released $60.7 million of cash.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Macro positioning of Solasglas: Core gold exposure (physical plus optionality), long SOFR futures into 2026 (view: more cuts than market), and inflation swaps (expect higher realized inflation than priced) .
  • Long-term corporate outlook and valuation: Despite discount to book value, management believes structural improvements support ROE above cost of equity and shares should justify trading at or above book; liquidation not preferred given potential costs and value leakage .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus for Q3 2025 was unavailable for EPS and revenue; therefore, we cannot assess beat/miss versus Street for the quarter (consensus not provided by S&P Global for GLRE this period).
  • Actual results: Diluted EPS $(0.13); net premiums earned $165.4M; combined ratio 86.6% .
  • Implication: In absence of consensus, buyside will anchor on record underwriting profitability and BVPS resilience versus investment volatility; subsequent AM Best upgrade may prompt upward adjustments to cost-of-capital assumptions .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Underwriting engine inflecting: materially lower combined ratio (86.6%) and higher underwriting income suggest improved pricing/mix and effective cat positioning; durability into renewals is a key watch item .
  • Investment swing factor remains: Solasglas short pain and Innovations mark-down dominated GAAP earnings; October’s +1.6% offers some early Q4 relief, but quarterly variability likely persists .
  • Balance sheet/capital flexibility improved: revolver plus LoC facility and debt paydown enhance liquidity and potential ROE; AM Best’s upgrade to “A” could support franchise value and terms with cedents/brokers .
  • Casualty de-risking on track: deliberate non-renewals in open market casualty offset by FAL, financial and specialty growth; Innovations expected to scale, bringing expense ratio normalization over time .
  • Sequential book value stability: despite investment losses, fully diluted BVPS only down 0.4% q/q; YTD +5.3% through Q3, supported by underwriting and buybacks .
  • Near-term trading catalysts: follow-through on underwriting discipline at 1/1 renewals, further investment performance data, and market reaction to the AM Best upgrade .

Appendix: Additional Data

Nine months ended (context)

Metric9M 20249M 2025
Net premiums earned ($USD Millions)$471.8 $495.5
Net underwriting income ($USD Millions)$9.8 $22.6
Combined ratio (%)97.9% 95.4%
Total investment income ($USD Millions)$77.0 $15.3
Net income ($USD Millions)$70.2 $25.6
Diluted EPS ($)$2.02 $0.74

Additional qualitative disclosures

  • Share repurchases: $2.0M in Q3 at $12.88 average; $5.0M in Q2 at $13.99 average .
  • Segment drivers: Open Market growth driven by Funds at Lloyd’s, property and financial lines; casualty decreased due to non-renewals; Innovations premium growth with some retroceded impact and temporary expense ratio elevation .
  • Investment color: Solasglas -3.2% in Q3; gold strength; shorts detracted; selective new positions (e.g., PG&E, Fluor stub vs NuScale) .

All citations: Q3 2025 press release and financials ; Q3 2025 call transcript ; Q2 2025 press release/financials ; Q2 2025 call ; Q1 2025 press release/financials ; Q1 2025 call ; AM Best upgrade PR .