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Golden Matrix Group, Inc. (GMGI)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record revenue of $47.3M (+15% YoY) and return to GAAP profitability ($0.4M net income; $0.00 diluted EPS), with gross margin at 56% and Adjusted EBITDA of $5.7M (+32% YoY) driven by marketing optimization and favorable mix .
  • Meridianbet led growth (+26% YoY revenue to $32.5M) with online casino GGR of $14.6M and sports betting revenue of $13.3M; RKings delivered record $7.4M revenue; GMAG posted $3.5M and added 12 providers via AI-driven integration .
  • FY25 revenue guidance tightened to $186–$187M (from $185–$188M in Q2 and $190–$195M in Q1); Q4 2025 revenue guided to $52.7–$53.7M (+15–17% YoY). Balance sheet deleveraging continues: total debt ~$45.1M, net leverage 1.2x AEBITDA .
  • Potential stock catalysts: sustained profitability, tightened FY guide with Q4 step-up, Meridianbet momentum (Brazil, LATAM), and visible deleveraging driving improved equity narrative .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well
    • Return to GAAP profitability with net income of $0.4M and $0.00 diluted EPS; Adjusted EBITDA rose to $5.7M (+32% YoY) as gross margin expanded to 56% (+111 bps YoY) .
    • Meridianbet delivered strong execution: revenue +26% YoY to $32.5M with casino GGR $14.6M, sports betting revenue $13.3M; depositors +25% YoY, new registrations +70% .
    • CEO tone confident: “disciplined execution continue to translate into profitable growth…momentum across key markets—particularly in Latin America” .
  • What Went Wrong
    • Q2 had a GAAP net loss of $3.7M driven by customer-friendly sports outcomes in Europe, higher operating spend, and $1.5M interest expense tied to debt prepayment .
    • Operating expenses remain elevated: SG&A was $26.8M in Q3 vs $23.4M in prior year; operating income still negative at $(0.388)M (GAAP) .
    • Currency/macro/regulatory risks persist across multi-jurisdiction footprint as highlighted in forward-looking and risk factor disclosures .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$40.992 $42.723 $43.245 $47.316
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$22.403 $24.196 $24.377 $26.386
Gross Margin %—57% 56% 56%
Net Income ($USD Millions)$(3.296) $(0.258) $(3.732) $0.414
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.03) $(0.00) $(0.03) $0.00
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$4.337 $5.612 $3.449 $5.728

Segment breakdown (Q3 2025):

SegmentRevenue ($USD Millions)YoY GrowthKey KPIs
Meridianbet$32.5 +26% Casino GGR $14.6; sports revenue $13.3; turnover $485; depositors +25% YoY; new registrations +70%
RKings$7.4 +14% CRM rollout in Q3; pivot to PPC/SEO in Q4
GMAG$3.5 Stable 12 new providers; AI-driven integration; expected +10% operator count
Classics for a Cause——Registrations +72%; new VIPs +82%; Aug campaign $0.776 sales; 10,000 packages; 1,700 new customers

KPIs (Meridianbet and RKings, Q2 → Q3 trajectory):

KPIQ2 2025Q3 2025
Casino turnover ($USD Millions)$434 $485
Online casino GGR ($USD Millions)—$14.6
Sports betting revenue ($USD Millions)—$13.3
New registrations (YoY)+124% +70%
First-time deposits (QoQ)+165% —
Active users (YoY)+15% —
RKings revenue ($USD Millions)—$7.4
RKings daily orders (Aug 1)30,000 —

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY 2025$190–$195M (Q1) ; revised to $185–$188M (Q2) $186–$187M (Q3) Lowered vs Q1; Tightened vs Q2
RevenueQ4 2025n/a$52.7–$53.7M New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q3)Trend
Brazil/Regulatory expansionQ1: Brazil permanent license; Africa/Nigeria B2B launch; Serbia 10-year renewal . Q2: Brazil license through 2029; certifications in Brazil, Peru, Croatia, Romania .LATAM momentum highlighted; focus on regulated markets .Positive/expanding
Product/technology (AI/CRM)Q2: Expanse partnerships; content library +2,500; U.S. social casino integrations .GMAG added 12 providers via AI-driven integration; RKings CRM rollout .Execution accelerating
Macro/sports outcomes volatilityQ2: Customer-friendly sports results pressured revenue and profitability .Not cited as a headwind in Q3; profitability restored .Improving vs Q2
Balance sheet deleveragingQ1: Eliminated ~$9.6M Lind Global debt; $9.5M Meridianbet debt converted to equity .Debt down $25.9M YTD to ~$45.1M; net leverage 1.2x AEBITDA .Strong deleveraging
Raffle businesses (RKings/CFAC)Q2: RKings daily revenue records; 30,000 orders Aug 1 .RKings record $7.4M revenue; CFAC registrations/VIPs surged; August campaign $0.776M sales .Continued strength
Expanse StudiosQ2: U.S. social casino traction .Showcasing at G2E; 56 proprietary games; 1,000+ partners; Croatia license; Romania application .Building B2B reach

Management Commentary

  • CEO Brian Goodman: “This quarter highlights how the strength of our portfolio and disciplined execution continue to translate into profitable growth…momentum across key markets—particularly in Latin America” .
  • Meridianbet CEO Zoran Milosevic: “A significant portion of this success is driven by Meridianbet’s exceptional performance…innovative platform, integrated gaming ecosystem, strategic expansions…” .
  • CFO Rich Christensen: “Margin expansion continues to be fueled by disciplined cost management and operational leverage…entering the final quarter with strong visibility and full confidence” .

Q&A Highlights

  • The company hosted an earnings webcast with a presentation on its IR website; however, a formal transcript was not available in filings at the time of this review, so specific Q&A themes cannot be summarized .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q3 2025 EPS and Revenue was unavailable for GMGI at the time of query; therefore, vs-estimate comparisons could not be made [GetEstimates attempted, no data returned].
  • Based on actuals, the narrative suggests an inflection to profitability with tightened FY revenue guidance and a Q4 step-up, which may prompt upward revisions to profitability metrics even if top-line expectations were already in-range .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q3 inflection: Record $47.3M revenue and GAAP net income $0.4M with Adjusted EBITDA $5.7M; gross margin sustained at 56% indicating healthier unit economics .
  • Meridianbet momentum: $32.5M revenue (+26% YoY), casino GGR $14.6M, sports revenue $13.3M; user acquisition metrics (depositors/new registrations) remain strong .
  • Diligent deleveraging: Debt ~$45.1M, net leverage 1.2x AEBITDA, positioning GMGI for improved financial flexibility into 2026 .
  • Guidance discipline: FY25 tightened to $186–$187M; Q4 guide $52.7–$53.7M implies continued sequential growth and YoY acceleration in the holiday quarter .
  • Operational investments: RKings CRM rollout and GMAG’s AI-driven integrations should support scalable customer acquisition and personalization in Q4 and beyond .
  • Risk watch: Multi-jurisdiction regulatory exposure and sports outcome variability remain key external factors; monitor FX and interest costs given prior Q2 impacts .
  • Trading lens: Near-term catalyst is sustained profitability amid tightened full-year guide; performance in Brazil/LATAM and execution on CRM/AI integrations could support multiple expansion if margins hold .