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GI

GMS Inc. (GMS)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 FY2025 delivered $1.47B net sales (+3.5% YoY) with diluted EPS of $1.35 (vs. $1.97 YoY) as gross margin contracted 90 bps to 31.4% on softer end-market demand, steel deflation, unrealized vendor incentives, and hurricane-related disruptions; Adjusted EBITDA was $152.2M (10.3% margin) .
  • Steel price deflation ($18M sales headwind) and Hurricanes Helene/Milton ($20M sales and ~$6M adjusted EBITDA headwind) were notable drags; management cited pockets of strength in data centers, education, healthcare, and CHIPS/IRA-backed projects .
  • Liquidity remained solid: cash $83.9M, available revolver liquidity $458.6M; net debt leverage increased to 2.3x on M&A and buybacks; Board renewed share repurchase authorization up to $250M (replacing the prior program) .
  • Q3 FY2025 outlook: gross margin 31.5%–31.7% and Adjusted EBITDA $113–$118M; expected mix: Wallboard organic volumes down mid- to high-single-digits (price/mix up slightly), Ceilings volumes up high-single-digits, Steel volumes down low-single-digits with price/mix down low- to mid-single-digits, Complementary up ~10% .
  • Wall Street consensus from S&P Global for Q2 FY2025 was not available for GMS (mapping unavailable); therefore, beats/misses vs. estimates cannot be assessed (S&P Global consensus unavailable).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Pricing resilience and sequential progress: like-for-like Wallboard prices improved sequentially; average realized Wallboard price reached $481 per 1,000 sq. ft.; Ceilings price/mix up 5.5% with organic sales +1.6% YoY .
    • Strategic momentum: R.S. Elliott acquisition (EIFS/stucco in FL), one new greenfield in Q2 and two more post-quarter; share repurchase program renewed to $250M, signaling confidence .
    • Cost actions tracking better: $30M annualized cost savings program (up from $25M initially), with roughly half run-rate captured in Q2; expected full capture by Q3 .
  • What Went Wrong

    • End-market softness and weather: multi-family and commercial weakened; hurricanes closed >40 locations at least one day and reduced Q2 sales by ~$20M and adjusted EBITDA by ~$6M .
    • Steel deflation and incentives: YoY steel deflation reduced sales by ~$18M; unrealized manufacturer purchasing incentives and higher accident claims pressured margins/SG&A leverage .
    • Margin compression: gross margin fell 90 bps YoY to 31.4% on price/cost dynamics in Wallboard, mix shift to single-family, unrealized incentives, and one-time operational impacts; adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 10.3% from 11.8% .

Financial Results

Headline metrics (YoY and sequential trend)

MetricQ2 FY2024Q1 FY2025Q2 FY2025
Net Sales ($USD Billions)$1.421 $1.448 $1.471
Gross Margin (%)32.3% 31.2% 31.4%
Net Income ($USD Millions)$81.0 $57.2 $53.5
Diluted EPS ($)$1.97 $1.42 $1.35
Adjusted Net Income ($USD Millions)$98.4 $77.6 (new presentation) $80.1
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$2.40 $1.93 (new presentation) $2.02
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$167.6 $145.9 $152.2
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)11.8% 10.1% 10.3%
Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)$118.1 $(22.9) $115.6
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$102.1 $(31.9) $101.5
Net Debt Leverage (x)1.5x 2.1x 2.3x

Product category net sales (YoY)

ProductQ2 FY2024 ($USD Millions)Q2 FY2025 ($USD Millions)YoY Change
Wallboard$585.2 $582.1 (0.5%)
Ceilings$175.3 $204.4 +16.6%
Steel Framing$232.1 $217.4 (6.3%)
Complementary Products$428.3 $466.8 +9.0%
Total$1,420.9 $1,470.7 +3.5%

Selected KPIs and capital allocation

KPIQ2 FY2024Q2 FY2025
Avg. realized Wallboard price ($/1,000 sq ft)$481
Cash ($USD Millions)$76.5 $83.9
Total Debt ($USD Millions)$1,076.1 $1,481.4
Available Liquidity ($USD Millions)$458.6
Shares Repurchased (shares / $USD Millions)593,168 / $52.3

Notes: YoY and sequential comparisons reflect underlying drivers including $~18M steel deflation impact to sales and $~20M hurricane impact to sales; hurricanes also reduced adjusted EBITDA by ~$6M .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Gross MarginQ3 FY2025Not provided~31.5%–31.7% New
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)Q3 FY2025Not provided$113–$118 New
Wallboard (organic volume)Q3 FY2025Not providedDown mid- to high-single-digits; total vols incl. M&A down low- to mid-single-digits New
Wallboard price/mixQ3 FY2025Not providedUp slightly YoY New
CeilingsQ3 FY2025Not providedVolumes up high-single-digits; price/mix mid-single-digit improvement New
Steel FramingQ3 FY2025Not providedVolumes down low-single-digits; price/mix down low- to mid-single-digits New
Complementary ProductsQ3 FY2025Not providedNet sales up ~10% YoY (M&A-driven) New
Free Cash Flow as % of Adj. EBITDAFY2025~60% (historical indication)~60%–65% Raised vs. historical norm
Capital Expenditures ($M)FY2025Not provided~$45–$50 New
Tax (normalized cash tax rate)Ongoing~26%~26% Maintained

No explicit revenue, OpEx, OI&E, dividend guidance was provided.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 FY2024 and Q1 FY2025)Current Period (Q2 FY2025)Trend
Wallboard pricingQ4: Lag to realize manufacturer increases; benefits expected later summer . Q1: Prices realized sequentially but mix to single-family flattened averages .Like-for-like pricing up slightly; average realized $481/1,000 sq ft; expect renewed manufacturer increases in 1H CY2025 .Sequential improvement; still mix headwind.
Steel pricingQ4: Deflation a key headwind . Q1: ~$40M sales headwind from steel deflation .~$18M sales headwind; slight sequential stabilization; typical seasonal dip expected in Q3 .Stabilizing from bottom near term.
Demand/macroQ4: Anticipated decline in multi-family/commercial; single-family improving . Q1: Softer activity across end-markets .Multi-family and commercial softened; hurricanes disrupted activity; pockets of strength in data centers, education, healthcare, CHIPS/IRA .Near-term weak; selective strength.
Cost actionsQ1: Initiated $25M annualized savings .Savings tracking to ~$30M annualized; ~half realized in Q2; rest expected by Q3 .Acceleration; execution ongoing.
M&A/platform expansionQ4: Acquired Kamco; announced Yvon . Q1: Closed Yvon; acquired R.S. Elliott .R.S. Elliott completed; 1 greenfield in Q2 and 2 more post-quarter .Active/consolidating.
Tariffs/steelTariffs on steel seen as likely net positive for distribution; GMS sources framing domestically; indirect impact via cold-rolled steel .Potential tailwind if tariffs persist.
WeatherHurricanes Helene/Milton materially impacted a large region and operations .Transitory headwind.

Management Commentary

  • “Prices remained resilient across our major product lines… Partially offsetting this growth were soft multi-family activity and softening commercial shipments. Hurricane-related slowdowns also significantly impacted one of our largest and fastest-growing regions…” — John C. Turner, Jr., CEO .
  • “Gross margin for the quarter was 31.4%, up 20 bps sequentially… down 90 bps from a year ago… attributable to a mix shift… combined with price and cost dynamics in Wallboard…” — CEO .
  • “We estimate that Hurricane Helene and Milton negatively impacted our net sales… by approximately $20 million and adjusted EBITDA by approximately $6 million…” — CEO .
  • “Our team worked diligently… cost savings… now believe will achieve closer to $30 million of annualized cost savings… roughly half… in the second quarter and expect the remainder… in the third quarter.” — CEO .
  • “Following… Kamco, Yvon and R.S. Elliott… our net debt leverage was 2.3x… Free cash flow of $101.5 million… Board… renewed our share repurchase program… up to $250 million.” — CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Wallboard price-cost: management sees about “60 bps of gross margin with still price cost attributed to Wallboard,” with sequential improvement but constrained by weak demand and mix; any sustained volume growth would aid further price realization .
  • Steel and tariffs: steel prices “bouncing along the bottom”; tariffs would likely be supportive for distribution; GMS does not source framing internationally; broader rolled steel market affects indirectly .
  • End-market outlook: commercial and multi-family remain challenged until rate/lending backdrop improves; single-family roughly flat near term; data centers/healthcare/education better segments .
  • SG&A leverage: nearing neutral in next quarter with improvements expected beyond, contingent on volumes; cost savings north of $30M provide cushion through the bottoming phase .
  • Ceilings trajectory and M&A: Ceilings holding up better given project mix (data centers, healthcare, education) and strength of Kamco franchise; M&A pipeline remains active with leverage targeted around 1.5–2.5x and flexibility to balance buybacks and deals .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global/Capital IQ consensus for Q2 FY2025 EPS and revenue was not retrievable due to a mapping issue for GMS; as such, we cannot provide a beats/misses assessment for this quarter (S&P Global consensus unavailable).

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q2 showed resilient pricing but weaker volumes and mix; transitory weather and incentive shortfalls compounded macro softness, compressing margins and EPS YoY .
  • The narrative shifts toward stabilization: steel appears to be bottoming sequentially; like-for-like Wallboard pricing improved; Ceilings remains a relative outperformer on favorable project mix .
  • Q3 guide implies seasonal/soft-quarter trough dynamics (GM ~31.5%–31.7%, Adj. EBITDA $113–$118M), setting up 2H CY2025 recovery optionality if rates ease and housing sentiment improves; monitor cadence of Wallboard price actions in 1H CY2025 .
  • Balance sheet/liquidity remain sound to fund consolidation and buybacks; renewed $250M authorization is an incremental floor under shares during cyclical softness .
  • Structural cost actions (now ~$30M run-rate, with further actions added in Q3) should support margins through the downcycle and provide operating leverage on recovery .
  • Watch data center/healthcare/education exposure and CHIPS/IRA-backed projects as offsets to weaker office/multi-family; hurricane impacts should fade but highlight regional exposure risks .
  • Without S&P consensus, trading setups hinge more on reading-through Q3 margin/EBITDA cadence and early signs of rate-driven single-family volume uplift and vendor pricing dynamics (rebates/incentives) .
References:  
- Q2 FY2025 8-K and press release: **[1600438_0001104659-24-125727_tm2430203d1_8k.htm:0]**, **[1600438_6ed5b06d0a47459ebb5dd503cb072d34_0]**  
- Q2 FY2025 earnings call transcript: **[1600438_GMS_3410947_0]**  
- Q1 FY2025 press release: **[1600438_fbae119d6b5c4469a66c59e1fecaaeca_0]**  
- Q3 FY2025 press release (trend): **[1600438_1e709c22cf72471884df8a871d1b65be_0]**  
- Q4 FY2024 press release (trend): **[1600438_06f45daf645241358966ff8c9a461b71_0]**