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GUARANTY BANCSHARES INC /TX/ (GNTY)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • EPS and revenue were above consensus; Diluted EPS was $0.75 vs $0.71 consensus and revenue was $32.06M vs $31.10M consensus, driven by continued NIM expansion and lower deposit costs. Bold beat: EPS and revenue beat consensus* [GetEstimates Q1 2025]*.
  • Net interest margin (FTE) rose to 3.70% from 3.54% in Q4 2024 and 3.16% in Q1 2024, as CDs repriced lower and loan/securities yields improved .
  • Asset quality remained strong: NPAs/Assets were 0.15% and ACL coverage was 1.32% of loans; ORE fully resolved with a minimal $184K loss .
  • Dividend increased to $0.25 (from $0.24) and the company repurchased ~127.5K shares; liquidity ratio improved to 19.8% and contingent liquidity stood at ~$1.3B .
  • Potential catalysts: continued NIM tailwinds (CFO expects 1–2 bps monthly), deposit growth of 2–5% in 2025, and potential further reserve releases if tariff uncertainty abates .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Margin expansion: NIM (FTE) improved to 3.70% (Q1 2025) from 3.54% (Q4 2024) and 3.16% (Q1 2024), supported by lower cost of deposits and upward repricing of earning assets . “Our net interest margin continues to build…” — Ty Abston .
    • Asset quality resilience: NPAs/Assets at 0.15% and net charge-offs annualized at 0.02%; ORE resolved with a $184K loss; ACL coverage 1.32% .
    • Capital returns and liquidity: Dividend raised to $0.25, and 127,537 shares repurchased at $40.56; liquidity ratio increased to 19.8%; contingent liquidity ~$1.3B .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Noninterest income declined 12.1% q/q due to lapping Q4 ORE-related gains and rental income; gains on loans also fell; debit fee increase was one-off from $400K MasterCard bonus .
    • Noninterest expense rose 6.7% q/q (+$1.3M), primarily employee comp/benefits (plan funding, payroll taxes, bonus accruals), offset by slight salary reductions; efficiency ratio worsened to 66.78% vs 62.23% in Q4 .
    • Loans declined $23.0M q/q (lower borrower demand, tariff uncertainty) and $157.1M y/y (tightened underwriting, strategic non-renewals) .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Interest Income ($USD Millions)$23.587 $26.221 $26.726
Noninterest Income ($USD Millions)$5.258 $5.726 $5.033
Revenues ($USD Millions)$29.10*$32.20*$32.06*
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.58 $0.87 $0.75
NIM (FTE, %)3.16% 3.54% 3.70%
ROAA (%)0.85% 1.27% 1.13%
ROAE (%)8.93% 12.68% 10.83%
Efficiency Ratio (%)71.74% 62.23% 66.78%

Note: Revenue figures marked with * are standardized S&P Global values; company does not report a “Revenue” line. Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

Q1 2025 Actual vs ConsensusConsensus*Actual
Primary EPS$0.71*$0.75
Revenue ($USD Millions)$31.10*$32.06*

Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

Segment/Lending Composition (Balances)

Loan Category ($USD Millions)Mar 31, 2024Dec 31, 2024Mar 31, 2025
Commercial & Industrial$269.56 $254.70 $226.82
Construction & Development$273.30 $218.62 $225.05
Commercial Real Estate$906.68 $866.68 $866.89
1–4 Family Residential$523.57 $529.01 $534.99
Total Loans$2,265.26 $2,131.14 $2,108.16

Key KPIs

KPIQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Total Deposits ($USD Billions)$2.628 $2.692 $2.704
Noninterest-Bearing Deposits (% of total)31.5% 31.1% 31.3%
Avg Cost of Total Deposits (%)2.23%† 2.11%† 1.96%†
Liquidity Ratio (%)10.6% 16.5% 19.8%
NPAs/Assets (%)0.68% 0.16% 0.15%
ACL / Loans (%)1.35% 1.33% 1.32%
Nonaccrual Loans / Total Loans (%)0.27% 0.17% 0.23%
Dividend per Share ($)0.24 0.24 0.25

† Non-GAAP metrics; reconciliations provided in company materials .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Dividend per share (quarterly)2025$0.24 (2024 run rate) $0.25 (declared March 13, 2025) Raised
NIM (FTE) trajectory2025NIM improving post Fed cuts Expect +1–2 bps monthly tailwinds over next several months Incrementally positive
Cost of CDs (weighted)2025Not specifiedRepricing from 4.24% to ~3.65% if renewed at current rates Lower
Avg cost of total deposits20252.11% in Q4 2024 1.96% in Q1 2025, further decline expected with CD repricing Lower
Deposit growthFY 2025Not explicitTarget 2–5% net deposit growth in 2025 New
Provision for credit losses2025Reversals in 2024 due to lower balances Potential additional reversals if economic outlook/tariffs clarify; no build expected at current conditions Potentially lower
Expense/Avg Assets targetOngoing2.5% bogey long-standingMaintained; short-term flexibility around target Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious (Q3 2024)Previous (Q4 2024)Current (Q1 2025)Trend
NIM trajectoryNIM up to 3.33%, improving with Fed begins lowering rates NIM at 3.54%, benefit from lower funding costs NIM at 3.70%; CFO expects +1–2 bps monthly tailwinds Improving
Loan pipeline/growthBalance sheet shrunk, positioning for future growth Strategic balance sheet shrink; ready for growth Pipeline at multiyear high; Q1 decline due to demand/tariff uncertainty Mixed near-term; constructive
Deposits/uninsuredDeposits +$42.8M; uninsured 26.3% Deposits +$23.3M; uninsured 26.3% Deposits +$12.2M; uninsured 26.7%; target 2–5% growth Stable to improving
Tariffs/macroFocus on positioning; no explicit tariff commentary Margin benefits from Fed cuts Management monitoring tariff uncertainty; no direct impacts identified; Texas economy strong Uncertain; watching
Asset qualityNPAs elevated due to ORE; expected resolution by year-end NPAs fell; ORE largely resolved; strong credit NPAs at 0.15%; ORE fully resolved; low charge-offs Strong
Liquidity/securitiesPaid off FHLB; liquidity ratio 17.1% Liquidity ratio 16.5%; contingent ~$1.3B Liquidity ratio 19.8%; ~$116M securities cash flows expected Strong
Capital & buybacksOngoing repurchases Capital strong; buybacks used excess capital 127,537 shares repurchased; willing to reenter market opportunistically Supportive
ExpensesEfficiency 70.47%; ORE costs elevated Efficiency 62.23%; lower comp/benefits Efficiency 66.78%; higher comp/benefits seasonality Mixed; watching opex normalization

Management Commentary

  • “The Texas economy remains strong and growing… Our net interest margin continues to build, and we're modeling for good results for the year, regardless of whether we see rate cuts or significant loan growth.” — Ty Abston .
  • “We really expect [NIM] to continue to increase 1 basis point or 2 over the next several months,” supported by $341M variable loans set to reprice and $263M floating-rate loans; CDs ($613M) are repricing from 4.24% to ~3.65% at current rates — Shalene Jacobson .
  • “Our liquidity right now is great… liquidity ratio of 19.8%… total contingent liquidity of about $1.3 billion” — Shalene Jacobson .
  • “We will open 10,000 checking accounts this year… focus on core deposit relationships” — Ty Abston .

Q&A Highlights

  • Loan pipeline/portfolio: Pipeline broad-based across regions and segments; Q1 loan contraction largely due to lower utilization/paydowns in C&I .
  • Tariff uncertainty: Clients are “on standby”; management sees no direct impacts; monitoring for indirect macro effects; Texas economy remains robust .
  • Reserves: No expectation to build reserves at current conditions; qualitative factors remain elevated, potential reversals if uncertainty clears .
  • Deposits: Expect 2–5% net deposit growth in 2025; relationship-led, mid-tier pricing .
  • Securities/cash flows: ~$116M of securities cash flows expected by year-end; systematic reinvestment; bond purchases at attractive pricing during market disruptions .
  • Buybacks: Program remains a capital allocation priority; willing to repurchase opportunistically .
  • Expense discipline: Long-standing 2.5% expense/avg assets bogey maintained with flexibility .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 results compared to Wall Street consensus: EPS $0.75 vs $0.71 consensus (beat); revenue $32.06M vs $31.10M consensus (beat). Bold beats sustained by NIM expansion and lower deposit costs* [GetEstimates Q1 2025]*.
  • Forward view: Q2 2025 consensus EPS $0.81* and revenue $32.67M*, with two covering estimates; management commentary implies NIM tailwinds could support estimates* [GetEstimates Q2 2025]*.

Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Margin expansion remains the core driver: NIM (FTE) improved to 3.70% with visible tailwinds from loan repricing and lower CD rates .
  • Asset quality is a differentiator: NPAs/Assets 0.15%, minimal charge-offs, ACL at 1.32% of loans; ORE fully resolved .
  • Deposit franchise strength: Deposits rose $12.2M q/q; noninterest-bearing mix ~31.3%; average cost of total deposits fell to 1.96%† .
  • Capital returns + liquidity provide support: Dividend increased to $0.25; buybacks executed; liquidity ratio 19.8% and ~$1.3B contingent liquidity .
  • Near-term watch items: Opex normalization post seasonal Q1 items; monitor tariff uncertainty and loan demand—management does not expect reserve builds at current conditions .
  • Trading implications: Continued NIM expansion and potential reserve reversals are positive; dividend/buyback support downside; any clarity on tariffs and pipeline conversion could be incremental catalysts .
  • Medium-term thesis: Granular loan/deposit base, improving margin profile, conservative credit posture, and excess liquidity position GNTY to compound shareholder value as rate and macro backdrop stabilize .