GoHealth, Inc. (GOCO)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q2 2025 was operationally cautious with a deliberate pullback in Medicare Advantage; reported revenue of $94.0M*, EBITDA of -$20.2M*, and diluted EPS of -$5.10*, all below consensus, driven by plan mix and reduced MA volume .
• Capital structure transformed: $115M super‑priority term loan ($80M new money; $35M roll‑up), maturity extensions to 2029, covenant relief to a single minimum liquidity covenant, and equity consideration of ~4.77M Class A shares; formation of a Board “Transformation Committee” and $250M lender‑approved M&A basket .
• Management expects removal of the going‑concern designation and anticipates an intangible asset impairment before filing the 10‑Q; AEP outlook is “disruptive” with carrier benefit changes and mixed signals, prompting a measured stance .
• Product diversification progressed: GoHealth Protect (final expense) contributed ~$8M to “other revenue” in Q2; management sees this as a scalable, cash‑flow supportive portfolio complement .
• Near‑term stock catalysts: execution under the new liquidity covenant and capital runway, clarity on AEP carrier behavior, impairment quantification and 10‑Q filing, and potential M&A announcements by the Transformation Committee .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Capital and governance actions broaden strategic optionality and remove near‑term balance sheet overhang: “covenant relief through 2025, maturity extensions through 2029… consent from lenders to evaluate additional capital structure solutions” .
• M&A capacity: lenders pre‑approved a $250M “basket” with a Transformation Committee to evaluate securitizations, financing options, and acquisitions: “capacity to pursue said transactions” .
• Product diversification scaling: GoHealth Protect/final expense recognized just over ~$8M in Q2, meeting expectations and aligning with the consumer base; team trained and appointed to scale .
• Management tone: confidence in strategic direction and long‑term value creation from technology, automation, and consolidation: “uniquely positioned to be a disciplined acquirer and integrator” .

What Went Wrong

• Topline and profitability below Street in Q2: pullback from MA starting May and health plan mix (agency vs. non‑agency) pressured non‑agency revenues and unit economics; Q2 not reflective of longer‑term efficiency unlocks .
• CAC/revenue per submission: analysts flagged higher CAC and lower revenue per submission YoY; management attributed this to market read and volume pullback, with improvements expected as volumes recover .
• Dilution and cost of capital: ~4.77M Class A shares issued to lenders and new money priced at “SOFR + 5.50%” with MIC constructs; investors may view this as costly liquidity despite strategic benefits .
• Intangible impairment expected in Q2 prior to 10‑Q finalization; AEP guidance withheld given carrier uncertainty, leaving near‑term modeling gaps .

Financial Results

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Q2 2025 vs. Wall Street (S&P Global consensus):

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment revenue breakdown (Agency vs. Non‑Agency):

KPIs

Guidance Changes

Note: Company emphasized measured AEP stance with no numeric guidance given carrier uncertainty .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “We believe the capital and governance milestones… are far more consequential… [providing] flexibility to operate and invest, and a clear path to capitalize on broader industry dynamics” .
• “Three new directors… and a Transformation Committee… including securitizations… and very specifically focused on identifying and vetting opportunities for acquisitions… basket of up to $250M” .
• “We pulled back significantly from Medicare Advantage starting in May… Q2 is not a great indication of the capabilities and unlock in our cost structure… better indication as we deliver more volume” .
• “Final expense… recognized just north of approximately $8M in the quarter… performance meeting expectations… great way to reconnect and reengage with our consumer base” .
• “We expect [going-concern] designation to be removed… and we do expect to record an impairment related to intangible assets” .
• “It’s going to be another disruptive market… the real question is where are health plans willing to invest” .

Q&A Highlights

• Covenants: Transition to a single minimum liquidity covenant to allow flexibility through AEP .
• M&A priority: Transformation Committee and lenders support active evaluation; $250M debt basket available .
• CAC and revenue per submission: Q2 not indicative due to MA pullback; efficiency unlock expected with volume recovery .
• Dilution and pricing: ~4.77M Class A shares issued to lenders; new money rate “SOFR + 5.50%” with MIC tiers .
• Final expense momentum: ~$8M recognized; dual‑licensed agents enabling flexible allocation across products .
• AEP modeling: Share count reconciliation to be followed up; AEP stance measured given carrier timing .

Estimates Context

• Q2 2025 results missed consensus: revenue $94.0M* vs $110.3M; EPS $(5.10)* vs $(2.55); EBITDA $(20.2)M* vs $(12.3)M (S&P Global).
• Estimate revisions likely lower for near‑term EPS/EBITDA given conservative AEP posture and expected intangible impairment disclosure; upside lever remains cost efficiency and product mix normalization as volumes recover .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Near‑term results light due to a strategic MA pullback; watch for volume normalization to reveal efficiency gains and improved unit economics .
• Balance sheet risk reduced: covenant simplification, extended maturities, equity alignment with lenders, and removal of going‑concern expected—reduces downside volatility .
• Strategic optionality rises: Transformation Committee and $250M basket set stage for consolidative M&A; timing and target quality will drive medium‑term re‑rating .
• Diversification matters: GoHealth Protect contributes cash‑flow supportive revenue; dual‑licensed agents offer tactical allocation across MA/final expense as carrier dynamics evolve .
• AEP risk remains: management flagged a “disruptive” environment; lack of guidance prudent, but carrier communications in coming weeks are the key catalyst path .
• Watch 10‑Q: impairment magnitude, liquidity disclosures under the new covenant, and share count will refine models; potential estimate downticks near term, with optional upside on M&A execution .
• Trading setup: near‑term cautious given result miss and impairment headline risk; medium‑term constructive if capital runway enables efficiency capture and targeted M&A delivers accretive scale .

Additional documents: Company announced it would disclose strategic capital/governance actions and Q2 results on Aug. 7, 2025; webcast details provided .