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GEORGIA POWER CO (GPJA)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Southern Company (parent of Georgia Power) delivered a clean beat: Q1 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.23 vs $1.20 consensus and GAAP EPS of $1.21; revenue of $7.78B vs $7.31B consensus, driven by higher utility revenues and favorable weather, partially offset by higher O&M and D&A . Estimates marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global and shown in the tables below.*
  • Georgia Power segment posted strong growth: revenue up 26.6% year over year to $3.04B; net income up 36.4% to $596M, with pre‑tax earnings up 34.5% .
  • Management guided Q2 2025 adjusted EPS to $0.85, citing a tougher weather comp and timing items; Board raised the annualized dividend to $2.96/share (quarterly $0.74), reinforcing the recurring income profile .
  • Strategic catalysts: accelerating large‑load/data center pipeline (Georgia pipeline ~52 GW; consolidated pipeline “well over 50 GW”), constructive Georgia IRP/RFP milestones expected mid‑year, and disciplined financing (ATM, JSNs) targeting FFO/debt trajectory, positioning for potential EPS growth “rebase” as early as 2027 if capital/opportunity set materializes .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Georgia Power outperformed: revenue +26.6% YoY to $3.04B; net income +36.4% to $596M, reflecting robust demand and the Southeast’s economic resilience .
    • Consolidated beat vs. Street: adjusted EPS $1.23 vs $1.19 consensus; revenue $7.78B vs $7.31B; EBITDA also ahead ($3.55B vs $3.30B), supported by retail revenue impacts (+$0.25) and weather (+$0.08) . Estimates marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global.*
    • Clear load catalysts: data center sales up 11% YoY; large‑load pipeline expanding (>50 GW consolidated; GA pipeline ~52 GW) and shifting earlier (2028–2029), underpinning long‑term investment needs .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Cost headwinds: non‑fuel O&M (–$0.09) and D&A (–$0.06) were notable drags on EPS drivers YoY .
    • Sequential softness ahead: Q2 adjusted EPS guided to $0.85 on tougher weather comp and absence of a 2Q24 Georgia transmission transaction benefit .
    • Tariff/macro uncertainty: management estimates 1%–3% potential cost impact in base capex plan but expects no material effect due to mitigations (supplier diversification, USMCA qualification, regulatory approaches) .

Financial Results

Consolidated P&L – Actuals vs prior periods

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($B)$6.65 $6.34 $7.78
Operating Income ($B)$1.70 $1.06 $2.01
Net Income Attributable to Southern ($B)$1.13 $0.53 $1.33
GAAP EPS$1.03 $0.49 $1.21
Adjusted EPS$1.03 $0.50 $1.23

Consolidated – Actual vs S&P Global consensus for Q1 2025

MetricConsensusActualSurprise
Revenue ($B)$7.31*$7.78 +$0.47
Adjusted EPS$1.19*$1.23 +$0.04
EBITDA ($B)$3.30*$3.55*+$0.25

Values marked with * are from S&P Global; per-policy disclaimer: Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment performance (Georgia Power) – trend and YoY

Georgia PowerQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Operating Revenues ($M)$2,398 $2,586 $3,037
Earnings Before Income Taxes ($M)$516 $381 $694
Net Income Available to Common ($M)$437 $294 $596

Selected KPIs (Consolidated) – demand context

KPIQ1 2024Q1 2025
Total kWh Sales (MM)46,529 48,485
Total Retail kWh Sales (MM)35,254 36,442
Regulated Utility Customers (000s)8,900 8,967

Notes on EPS drivers: Retail revenue impacts (+$0.25) and weather (+$0.08) more than offset O&M (–$0.09), D&A (–$0.06), and interest (–$0.08) headwinds .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EPS (Company-level)Q2 2025N/A$0.85 (management estimate) New intra‑quarter color
Dividend (annualized)Ongoing$2.88$2.96 (quarterly $0.74) Raised
Capital Plan/IRP2025 milestonesN/AGA IRP resolution expected mid‑July; RFP awards (8.5 GW all‑source among others) to inform capex update by Q2 call Update timing affirmed

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Large-load/data centersQ4 2024: demand strength; Vogtle progress supported system capacity . Q3 2024 press release referenced (link only) .Data center sales +11% YoY; GA pipeline ~52 GW; consolidated pipeline “well over 50 GW,” with earlier timing (2028–2029) .Accelerating interest and earlier in‑service timing
Tariffs/macroQ4 2024: noted inflation and financing cost headwinds .Estimated 1%–3% potential cost impact; mitigations include USMCA qualification, contingencies, regulatory tools; no material forecast impact expected .Manageable with mitigations
Georgia regulation (IRP/RFP/rate case)Q4 2024: Vogtle loss credit/tax items; steady segment results .2025 IRP resolution mid‑July; 13 GW RFPs progressing; potential capex/financing update by Q2 call; rate case filing early July (affordability in focus) .Constructive cadence; visibility rising
Financing/FFO to debtQ4 2024: EPS growth 5%–7% framework reiterated; interest refi headwinds noted .Issued ~$2.2B sub debt YTD, ~$2.4B JSNs (50% equity credit), $1B ATM forwards; path to ~$4B five‑year equity needs; working toward 17% FFO/debt; rebase potential around 2027 if capex set materializes .Balanced funding; flexibility maintained
IRA transferabilityNot highlighted prior.Limited reliance; losing transferability would be ~10–20 bps to FFO/debt; credits benefit customers; advocacy ongoing .Neutral to modest impact

Management Commentary

  • “We reported adjusted earnings results for the first quarter above our estimate... Our state‑regulated electric utilities continue to experience customer growth... customers, especially data center customers, are increasingly acknowledging [our grid’s] reliability” — Chris Womack, CEO .
  • “Our adjusted EPS was $1.23... $0.03 above our estimate... Weather added $0.08 YoY... partially offset by higher operating costs and D&A” — Dan Tucker, CFO .
  • On tariffs: “We currently estimate a range of 1% to 3% of potential cost increases... [with] mitigations... Overall, we do not expect a material impact to our forecast” — Chris Womack .
  • Dividend policy: keeping growth “more modest... should help us drive our payout ratio... once in the low 60% range... the Board might have an opportunity to do something different” — Dan Tucker .

Q&A Highlights

  • Near-term outlook: Q2 adjusted EPS guided to $0.85 on tougher weather comp and absence of 2Q24 Georgia transmission transaction; demand fundamentals intact .
  • Load pipeline: Georgia ~52 GW long‑dated pipeline; contracted 4 GW; committed 8 GW; timing shifting forward (2028–2029) .
  • Financing plan: Mix of subsidiary debt, JSNs (50% equity credit), ATM forwards; advancing to 17% FFO/debt while preserving flexibility for incremental capex .
  • Rate case approach: filing early July; focus on affordability, fuel recovery roll‑offs, Helene storm recovery pacing .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 vs consensus: Revenue $7.78B vs $7.31B consensus; Adjusted EPS $1.23 vs $1.19; EBITDA $3.55B vs $3.30B; EPS had 13 estimates; revenue had 6 estimates. All three were beats, with revenue and EBITDA notably ahead, aided by retail pricing and weather . Consensus and EBITDA values are from S&P Global.*
  • Q4 2024 vs consensus (for trend): Revenue $6.34B vs $5.90B; Adjusted EPS $0.50 vs $0.51, essentially in line on EPS with a revenue beat. S&P Global metrics below.*

Estimates (S&P Global) and actuals

MetricQ4 2024 ConsensusQ4 2024 ActualQ1 2025 ConsensusQ1 2025 Actual
Primary EPS0.509*0.50 1.194*1.23
Revenue ($B)5.90*6.34 7.31*7.78
EBITDA ($B)2.09*2.53*3.30*3.55*

Values marked with * are from S&P Global; per-policy disclaimer: Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Georgia Power’s segment growth (revenue +26.6%, net income +36.4% YoY) was a core contributor to the consolidated beat and strengthens confidence in the Southeast load story .
  • Near-term comp risk acknowledged (Q2 guide $0.85 on weather/timing), but structural demand (data centers, manufacturing) and regulatory milestones (IRP/RFP) should support continued rate base/capex expansion .
  • Management is proactively mitigating tariff and supply chain risks (1%–3% base plan sensitivity) and sees no material impact to the outlook, aided by supplier diversification and regulatory tools .
  • Financing remains balanced and credit‑conscious (JSNs with equity credit, ATM forwards), supporting the path to ~17% FFO/debt and headroom to fund incremental opportunities without stressing the balance sheet .
  • Dividend raised to $2.96 annualized; policy remains a lever to manage payout and equity needs, with potential for flexibility once payout approaches low‑60s% .
  • Watch for July updates on Georgia IRP/RFP outcomes and associated capex/financing implications; management flagged potential to “rebase” long‑term EPS growth as early as 2027 if the opportunity set materializes .

Footnotes:

  • Consolidated and segment actuals sourced from the Q1 2025 8‑K/press release and segment tables (The Southern Company combined 8‑K with Georgia Power segment) .
  • Earnings call transcript quotes and guidance sourced from Q1 2025 call .
  • Dividend press release .
  • Consensus and EBITDA figures marked with * are from S&P Global; Values retrieved from S&P Global.