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    GLOBAL PAYMENTS (GPN)

    Q4 2023 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$136.07Last close (Feb 13, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$132.00Open (Feb 14, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-4.07(-2.99%)
    • Global Payments is poised to accelerate growth through significant investments in point-of-sale (POS) software, international expansion, and leveraging embedded payment trends, particularly in omnichannel solutions.
    • The company demonstrates strong free cash flow conversion, expecting approximately 100% conversion rate in 2024, highlighting the efficiency and durability of their business model.
    • Global Payments plans to return to a more balanced capital allocation approach, with increased focus on share buybacks, as evidenced by the Board's approval of a $2 billion share repurchase authorization, signaling confidence in the company's future prospects.
    • GAAP earnings are expected to be approximately 50% of adjusted earnings, indicating significant adjustments and potential concerns about the quality of earnings.
    • Earnings growth is anticipated to be slower in Q1 2024, with expected EPS growth "slightly below the range" of 11% to 12% due to prior divestitures. This suggests potential near-term growth challenges.
    • Management expresses a tempered view of the macroeconomic environment and is hesitant to provide updated medium-term EPS growth targets, indicating uncertainty about future performance.
    1. 2024 Merchant Growth Guidance
      Q: Are you being conservative with 7-8% Merchant growth?
      A: Management expects Merchant organic growth of 7% to 8% in 2024, slightly lower than last year's exit rate of 8%, reflecting a cautious view of the macroeconomic environment and potential consumer weakness.

    2. M&A and Capital Allocation
      Q: Will there be portfolio pruning or large acquisitions?
      A: They might consider portfolio pruning in 2024, not included in the current outlook. M&A remains strategic, but any deals must offer competitive returns versus buying back stock. They plan to balance capital allocation, prioritizing debt reduction to a net leverage of 3x and considering share repurchases.

    3. Margin Outlook and EVO Integration
      Q: What's behind the up to 50 bps margin expansion?
      A: Margin expansion reflects a balance between reinvesting in the business, including the EVO integration, and bottom-line benefits. Excluding EVO's lower margins, overall margins would rise about 75 basis points, with Merchant margins approaching 60%.

    4. Competitive Positioning and POS Rollout
      Q: How is the competitive environment and opportunities?
      A: Management feels confident in their strategic positioning, especially with their integrated U.S. business and upcoming next-generation POS software launch enhancing competitiveness. They are also optimistic about international markets by introducing advanced products where competition is less intense.

    5. Medium-Term EPS Growth Outlook
      Q: How should we think about medium-term EPS targets?
      A: While not providing a new cycle guide, management targets 7%+ revenue growth and 14%+ EPS growth for 2024, reflecting high single-digit top-line growth and mid-teens EPS growth, consistent with sustainable expectations, tempered by macroeconomic caution.

    6. Commerzbank JV Contribution
      Q: What will the Commerzbank JV add this year?
      A: The joint venture with Commerzbank is a greenfield opportunity in Germany, starting from a small base to grow over time. Its 2024 contribution is minimal and not material to guidance.

    7. U.K. Business Stabilization
      Q: Is the U.K. market stabilizing?
      A: There are signs of stabilization in the U.K., with inflation aligning with expectations. Management is optimistic and has introduced new products, including POS solutions, to compete effectively.

    8. Free Cash Flow Conversion
      Q: How is free cash flow conversion so strong?
      A: They achieved 100% free cash flow conversion for the year and expect roughly 100% in 2024, excluding timing changes in R&D tax credits. They anticipate add-backs to decrease, improving GAAP earnings relative to adjusted earnings.

    9. Earnings Growth Pace Through 2024
      Q: Will earnings accelerate after anniversarying EVO?
      A: Yes, they expect EPS growth of 11%-12% for the year, accelerating in the second half as they anniversary Netspend and EVO, reaching 12%-13% growth in Q3 and Q4.

    10. Merchant Volume and Pricing Expectations
      Q: Are volumes and pricing aligned with forecasts?
      A: They expect volumes to align with revenue growth and maintain consistent pricing strategies, focusing on fair value without unusual pricing actions.

    11. Vertical Software Investments
      Q: Where are opportunities in vertical solutions?
      A: They focus on owning software in verticals with large addressable markets, strong payments nexus, and international applicability, leveraging investments across the business.

    12. Issuer Business Renewals
      Q: How are yields and renewal terms in Issuer?
      A: They've renewed two flagship customers, included in guidance, and continue investing in modernization to open new revenue channels, aiming to sustain and accelerate growth over time.

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