Q4 2023 Earnings Summary
- Global Payments is poised to accelerate growth through significant investments in point-of-sale (POS) software, international expansion, and leveraging embedded payment trends, particularly in omnichannel solutions.
- The company demonstrates strong free cash flow conversion, expecting approximately 100% conversion rate in 2024, highlighting the efficiency and durability of their business model.
- Global Payments plans to return to a more balanced capital allocation approach, with increased focus on share buybacks, as evidenced by the Board's approval of a $2 billion share repurchase authorization, signaling confidence in the company's future prospects.
- GAAP earnings are expected to be approximately 50% of adjusted earnings, indicating significant adjustments and potential concerns about the quality of earnings.
- Earnings growth is anticipated to be slower in Q1 2024, with expected EPS growth "slightly below the range" of 11% to 12% due to prior divestitures. This suggests potential near-term growth challenges.
- Management expresses a tempered view of the macroeconomic environment and is hesitant to provide updated medium-term EPS growth targets, indicating uncertainty about future performance.
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2024 Merchant Growth Guidance
Q: Are you being conservative with 7-8% Merchant growth?
A: Management expects Merchant organic growth of 7% to 8% in 2024, slightly lower than last year's exit rate of 8%, reflecting a cautious view of the macroeconomic environment and potential consumer weakness. -
M&A and Capital Allocation
Q: Will there be portfolio pruning or large acquisitions?
A: They might consider portfolio pruning in 2024, not included in the current outlook. M&A remains strategic, but any deals must offer competitive returns versus buying back stock. They plan to balance capital allocation, prioritizing debt reduction to a net leverage of 3x and considering share repurchases. -
Margin Outlook and EVO Integration
Q: What's behind the up to 50 bps margin expansion?
A: Margin expansion reflects a balance between reinvesting in the business, including the EVO integration, and bottom-line benefits. Excluding EVO's lower margins, overall margins would rise about 75 basis points, with Merchant margins approaching 60%. -
Competitive Positioning and POS Rollout
Q: How is the competitive environment and opportunities?
A: Management feels confident in their strategic positioning, especially with their integrated U.S. business and upcoming next-generation POS software launch enhancing competitiveness. They are also optimistic about international markets by introducing advanced products where competition is less intense. -
Medium-Term EPS Growth Outlook
Q: How should we think about medium-term EPS targets?
A: While not providing a new cycle guide, management targets 7%+ revenue growth and 14%+ EPS growth for 2024, reflecting high single-digit top-line growth and mid-teens EPS growth, consistent with sustainable expectations, tempered by macroeconomic caution. -
Commerzbank JV Contribution
Q: What will the Commerzbank JV add this year?
A: The joint venture with Commerzbank is a greenfield opportunity in Germany, starting from a small base to grow over time. Its 2024 contribution is minimal and not material to guidance. -
U.K. Business Stabilization
Q: Is the U.K. market stabilizing?
A: There are signs of stabilization in the U.K., with inflation aligning with expectations. Management is optimistic and has introduced new products, including POS solutions, to compete effectively. -
Free Cash Flow Conversion
Q: How is free cash flow conversion so strong?
A: They achieved 100% free cash flow conversion for the year and expect roughly 100% in 2024, excluding timing changes in R&D tax credits. They anticipate add-backs to decrease, improving GAAP earnings relative to adjusted earnings. -
Earnings Growth Pace Through 2024
Q: Will earnings accelerate after anniversarying EVO?
A: Yes, they expect EPS growth of 11%-12% for the year, accelerating in the second half as they anniversary Netspend and EVO, reaching 12%-13% growth in Q3 and Q4. -
Merchant Volume and Pricing Expectations
Q: Are volumes and pricing aligned with forecasts?
A: They expect volumes to align with revenue growth and maintain consistent pricing strategies, focusing on fair value without unusual pricing actions. -
Vertical Software Investments
Q: Where are opportunities in vertical solutions?
A: They focus on owning software in verticals with large addressable markets, strong payments nexus, and international applicability, leveraging investments across the business. -
Issuer Business Renewals
Q: How are yields and renewal terms in Issuer?
A: They've renewed two flagship customers, included in guidance, and continue investing in modernization to open new revenue channels, aiming to sustain and accelerate growth over time.
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