GoPro - Earnings Call - Q4 2024

Executive Summary

• Q4 2024 revenue was $200.9M, down 32% YoY, with GAAP EPS of $(0.24) and non-GAAP EPS of $(0.09); gross margin improved modestly YoY to 34.7% GAAP/35.1% non-GAAP.
• Management guided Q1 2025 revenue to $125M ± $10M, GM ~35%, OpEx ~$63M ± $2M, and non-GAAP loss per share of ~$0.13, while reiterating FY25 OpEx reduction to $250–$260M and >100 bps GM improvement vs 2024.
• Subscription ARPU improved 8% YoY; aggregate retention reached a record 69% and ASP rose to $346 (+5% YoY). Channel inventory fell by >170k units in Q4, supporting price discipline and margin focus.
• Stock reaction catalysts: aggressive OpEx cuts, confirmed GP3 SoC validation, near-term MAX re-introduction followed by MAX2 in 2025, and tariff risk mitigation via diversified supply chain.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Gross margin improved: GAAP 34.7%/non-GAAP 35.1% vs 34.2%/34.4% last year; management cited cost reductions, supply chain diversification, and operational efficiencies supporting margin trajectory.
• Subscription economics strengthened: ARPU +8% YoY; aggregate retention 69% (up both sequentially and YoY); subscriber base ended Q4 at 2.52M (+1% YoY).
• Pricing/ASP discipline amid lower volumes: Street ASP $346 (+5% YoY); channel inventory reduced by >170k units in Q4, helping balance channel health.

What Went Wrong

• Top-line pressure: Q4 revenue down 32% YoY to $200.9M; retail channel down 34% YoY; GoPro.com down 24% YoY, reflecting macro headwinds and competitive intensity.
• Profitability: non-GAAP net loss of $14.4M; adjusted EBITDA $(14.4)M; GAAP EPS $(0.24), non-GAAP EPS $(0.09) vs $0.03 non-GAAP last year.
• Product timing/FX: MAX2 delay weighed on unit/revenue outlook; stronger USD hit Q4 gross margin by ~80 bps vs guidance; management expects 2025 units/revenue below 2024 before a 2026 recovery.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

I'd now like to pass the call over to Robin Stoecker. Please go ahead.

Robin Stoecker (Director of Corporate Communications)

Thank you, Cole. Good afternoon and welcome to GoPro's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. With me today are GoPro CEO, Nicholas Woodman, and CFO and COO, Brian McGee. Today's agenda will include brief commentary from Nick and Brian, followed by Q&A. For detailed information about our fourth quarter and full year 2024 performance, as well as outlook, please read our Q4 and full year earnings press release and management commentary we posted to the investor relations section of GoPro's website. Before I pass the call to Nick, I'd like to remind everybody that our remarks today may include forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements and all other statements that are not historical facts are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially.

Additionally, any forward-looking statements made today are based on assumptions as of today. This means that results could change at any time, and we do not undertake any obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events. To better understand the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from our commentary, we refer you to our most recent annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, which is on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission and other reports that we may file from time to time with the SEC. Today, we may discuss gross margin, operating expense, net profit and loss, adjusted EBITDA, as well as basic and diluted net profit and loss per share in accordance with GAAP and on a non-GAAP basis.

A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP operating expenses can be found in the press release that was issued this afternoon, which is posted on the investor relations section of our website. Unless otherwise noted, all income statement-related numbers that are discussed in the management commentary and remarks made today other than revenue are non-GAAP. Now, I'll turn the call over to GoPro's founder and CEO, Nicholas Woodman.

Nicholas Woodman (CEO)

Thanks, Robin, and thanks everybody for joining us today. As Robin mentioned, Brian and I will share brief remarks before going into Q&A, and I want to encourage all on the call to read the detailed management commentary we posted on our investor relations website. I'd like to start the call by addressing recent U.S. tariff announcements on inbound goods to be sold in the U.S., which we do not expect to materially impact our U.S. consumer pricing or gross margin due to our proactive supply chain management. This is thanks to the terrific job our teams have done to diversify our manufacturing and sourcing over the years. GoPro's Q4 results landed largely in line or slightly better than our guidance. During the quarter, we took action to right-size operating expenses.

We're now focused on delivering our 2025 and 2026 products in an efficient manner, which includes a broadening of our portfolio that we believe will yield profitable returns for GoPro and our shareholders over time. The GoPro subscription is the most profitable product we sell, and our retention numbers demonstrate the strength in the value we offer subscribers, as illustrated by ARPU improving 8% year-over-year. Aggregate subscription retention in Q4 was 69%, up from 67% both sequentially and year-over-year, and our annual retention rates continue to be consistent with what we previously reported, including positive numbers for fourth-year renewals of nearly 90%. In 2024, in addition to our flagship HERO13 Black, we introduced an entry-level product, an exciting tiny 4K camera we call HERO. This ultra-small 86-gram featherweight camera has enormous potential that we're excited to continue to tap into.

Just last week, via firmware update, we added a wider, more immersive in-camera 4:3 aspect ratio for video capture along with a SuperView digital lens setting in the app, which combined to enable an immersive, it feels like you're there point of view perspective during any activity. The immersive capture our engineering teams have enabled in this tiny entry-level GoPro is staggering. We expect sales to grow over time as we continue to champion its capabilities with updates.

It goes without saying that we're excited to grow our presence in the 360-degree camera market, a market we pioneered and led for several years with category-defining IP and products. As we've shared, the 360-degree camera market represents a robust growth segment in the broader digital imaging category, and it's an understatement to say that we're excited about the opportunity to grow our share in this important market.

Recent and upcoming events related to the 360-degree camera market include our recent release of a powerful, totally new, and enhanced 360-degree editing experience in the Quik app, complete with impressive subject tracking, intuitive keyframe-based reframing, and more. Later this month, we will begin selling a refreshed MAX 360-degree camera to serve as an entry-level 360 SKU ahead of the highly anticipated availability of our MAX 2 360 camera later this year.

Of course, MAX will be compatible with all the new aforementioned features in the updated Quik app. Speaking of MAX 2, we are excited about the progress we have made on what we believe are innovative capabilities that will redefine the 360 camera market and position MAX 2 as the world's most impressive 360 camera. Innovation can be hard, and we are proud of our engineers who have stayed committed to making MAX 2 into something truly special.

We cannot wait to launch it later this year. Further on the innovation front, I'm excited to share that we've completed the validation of our next generation SoC GP3. Everything we know about the competitive landscape for market-available SoCs leads us to believe GP3 will once again set new performance standards, not only in our categories of cameras, but for the digital imaging industry as a whole. As we noted on our last earnings call in 2025, we expect units and revenue to be lower than 2024, primarily driven by macroeconomic headwinds, competition, and the previously mentioned delay of our new MAX 2 360 camera that we intend to launch later this year in 2025. We've substantially reduced operating expenses for 2025 and believe this lower level of spending enables us to continue to innovate and will lead us to an exciting year of new releases in 2026 and beyond.

To be clear, we are focused on returning GoPro to unit and revenue growth, along with improved profitability. We plan to do this through a broader, more diversified, and innovative roadmap that we believe will expand our TAM and further establish GoPro as a market-leading innovator while restoring unit and revenue growth in 2026. It can be challenging to simultaneously be an innovator and a leader, yet we maintain an unwavering commitment to realizing the long-term rewards that perseverance, innovation, and super serving our end users can yield. With that, I'll turn the call over to Brian.

Brian McGee (CFO and COO)

Thanks, Nick. In the fourth quarter of 2024, revenue was in line with guidance of $201 million. GAAP net loss per share was $0.24, while non-GAAP net loss per share of $0.09 exceeded guidance. Subscription and service revenue grew 9% year-over-year, primarily from 8% ARPU growth as a result of continued improving aggregate retention rate, which reached a record 59%. Sell-through in the fourth quarter of approximately 775,000 camera units was in line with expectations and resulted in more than 170,000 camera unit decrease in channel inventory. Additional performance highlights for the fourth quarter include subscribers grew 1% year-over-year to 2.52 million, including 70,000 Premium+ subscribers. Subscription attach rate from cameras sold across all channels was 34% compared to 29% in Q4 2023, a 16% improvement. Street ASP was $346 compared to $330 in Q4 2023.

Notable performance highlights for the year include subscription and service revenue grew 10% year-over-year to $107 million, primarily from, again, improving aggregate retention rates, and subscription gross margin exceeded 70%. Retail revenue was 75% of total revenue at $601 million, down 15% year-over-year. GoPro.com product revenue was 12% of total revenue at $94 million, down 54% year-over-year. Street ASP was $330 compared to $337 in 2023. Operating loss was $80 million compared to an operating loss of $34 million in 2023. Finally, sell-through was 2.5 million units, down 13% year-over-year. As we look at the outlook, as we previously noted, we continue to expect units and revenue in 2025 to be lower than 2024, primarily driven by macroeconomic headwinds, FX due to a stronger U.S. dollar, competition, and the delay of our new 360 camera.

That said, we have undertaken several initiatives in 2024 to put us back on a path to long-term success. Notably, this includes our plan to reduce operating expenses nearly 30% from 2024 and honing our roadmap to drive not only faster time to market, but also more efficiency in how we design our products. Additionally, our focus on operational efficiencies to drive down costs and expand our supply chain outside of China is expected to improve gross margin by more than 100 basis points in 2025 over 2024 and nearly 300 basis points improved over 2023. Finally, we are actively managing the balance sheet to further reduce inventory to be consistently well below $100 million to preserve cash and operate more efficiently with our working capital.

For the first quarter of 2025, we're expected to deliver revenue of $125 million, plus or minus $10 million, down 20% year-over-year. We estimate Street ASP in the first quarter to be approximately $365, down year-over-year from $395. We expect unit sell-through to be down 20% year-over-year to approximately 430,000 units and channel inventory to reduce by approximately 60,000 units sequentially. We expect gross margin in the first quarter to be 35% at the midpoint of guidance, up slightly versus the prior year quarter. We expect first quarter 2025 operating expenses to be approximately $63 million, plus or minus $2 million, a 24% reduction from the prior year quarter due to lower spending on wages from lower headcount, reduced marketing, and lower non-recurring engineering expenses related to the completion of our new GP3 SoC.

Non-GAAP tax expense is expected to be $1 million in the first quarter of 2025. We expect non-GAAP loss per share in the first quarter of $0.13 at the midpoint of guidance and expect shares outstanding to be approximately 155 million. Turning to the balance sheet, we expect cash to be approximately $80 million at the end of the first quarter. Now I'll provide commentary on some full year 2025. We expect gross margin improvements of more than 100 basis points in 2025 from 2024 based on the following factors. The introduction of our MAX 2 360 camera, identified product costs, operating costs, as well as further tariff savings due to continued supply chain diversification outside of China and subscription ARPU growth and subscription cost improvements.

We expect our full year 2025 operating expenses to be in a range of $250 million-$260 million, down $100 million or nearly 30% year-over-year. Non-GAAP tax expense is expected to be $3 million in 2025, and cash tax is expected to be $1 million in 2025. With the anticipated decline in unit sales in 2025 from 2024, our subscriber count is expected to be approximately 2.4 million at the end of 2025. We expect subscription and service revenue in 2025 to be approximately $105 million. The continued improvement in aggregate retention rate is driving improved ARPU, which is softening the revenue decline due to the slight decrease in subscribers. Turning to the balance sheet, we expect cash at the end of the year to be approximately $50 million, which anticipates the repayment of our convertible debt.

In addition, we have a $50 million asset-backed line or ABL facility available. We believe our cash position, along with our ABL facility, will be sufficient to fund our plan. In summary, in 2024, we undertook several initiatives to reduce operating expenses, improve gross margin, refine our product roadmap for improved diversification in 2025 and 2026, and implement efficiencies in our approach to product development. We are focused on launching new products while preserving cash to repay our debt in 2025 and launching a significant number of new products in 2026 to restore growth and profitability to our business. Finally, we look forward to seeing many of you at the upcoming Morgan Stanley Technology, Media, and Telecom Conference on March 5th. Operator, with that, we are now ready to take questions.

Operator (participant)

Great. If you'd like to queue for a question, you can do so by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If for any reason you'd like to remove your question, it's star two. To join the question queue, please press star one. We will pause here briefly as questions are registered. We have a question from Erik Woodring with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Erik Woodring (Analyst)

Great. Thank you so much for taking my question, guys. I apologize. I'm hopping between calls, but maybe, I guess it's for you, Brian. I think I heard you guide to subscribers ending next year of, I think it was 2.4 million, which would be down year-over-year. I realize units will be down, but your commentary, at least that I caught on renewal rates, sounded very bullish. Can you just help us understand the moving pieces for how you get to subscriber declines in 2025, please? I have a quick follow-up.

Brian McGee (CFO and COO)

Sure. We said units would be down. Our tax rates for the full year was about 42%. We're assuming 38-40% on that front. We do continue to see aggregate retention improve. That results in about an improvement in ARPU. That's helping to counterbalance the reduction in units. Therefore, you get about $105 million of revenue and about 2.4 million less than subs, or 2.4 million subs down about 120,000.

Erik Woodring (Analyst)

Okay. Perfect. Thank you. Perfect. Thank you for that. Brian, maybe just to follow up, you provide, obviously, a handful of details on 2025 gross margin, OpEx, taxes. I realize that 2025 revenue will decline. Is there any more kind of concrete guidance that you can provide us for how we should be thinking about 2025, the revenue base you're considering for that base of OpEx? Just anything that can help us kind of maybe narrow down expectations into 2025. That's it for me. Thanks so much.

Brian McGee (CFO and COO)

Yeah, sure. We're going to guide quarter to quarter, Eric. It's a long year to go. We feel good about the products we have, the products that are coming out, but there's headwinds with consumer competition and FX, right, which has impacted us a lot. I mean, FX from 2021 into 2022, three and four has impacted us about $50 million on the top line margin and bottom line. We got to worry about where the dollar is going as well. We said it would be down. I'm not going to give a precise number. The good news is we think we've got good margin going here at 35% and some really good cost reduction. Clearly, the subscription and service is helping us from a margin perspective. We expect that to continue.

I mean, since 2023, it's probably about a 200-250 basis point improvement in margin right there, along with another 100 and something basis points of other costs like freight, tariffs, and warranty as we have much better product experience for our customers. All those things combined to make 35%, but we're not going to guide the top line right now for 2025.

Erik Woodring (Analyst)

Okay. Understood, thank you so much. Sorry, Sorry.

Nicholas Woodman (CEO)

I'd just like to add one more point on subscription. While we expect it to be down in 2024, sorry, in 2025, we expect to grow subscription again in 2026 with the launch of a slew of exciting new products that are going to broaden our portfolio considerably. That's a bright spot to look forward to in 2026 as it relates to.

Erik Woodring (Analyst)

Thank you very much, Nick.

Nicholas Woodman (CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

As an additional reminder, it is star oneto join the question queue. Our next question is from Martin Yang with Oppenheimer. Your line is now open.

Martin Yang (Analyst)

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. My first question on MAX. Curious to hear your decision to reintroduce the MAX 1 back into the market and any context you could provide on that decision and whether that model will be marginally accretive for you.

Nicholas Woodman (CEO)

Thanks, Martin. Yeah. We had cleared the channel of MAX in anticipation of MAX 2. As we shared, the delay of MAX 2 caused some complications for the business. We determined that and we identified that there's a market for MAX. It's a slightly refreshed product. Along with the significant software enhancements that we just launched recently as a free update to the GoPro Quik app, the overall 360 experience is much enhanced. We are super excited to get MAX back out into the marketplace here later this month. That is going to serve as a terrific entry-level 360 product, paving the way for momentum towards the launch of MAX 2.

It was a pretty easy decision to go and essentially refresh the product and bring it back into the market as an entry-level experience, again, bolstered by the new and enhanced software experience that we just recently launched and that we will be building on throughout the year. I am happy to let GoPro 360 camera owners know that the software experience will continue to expand over the course of the year. Look forward to that. On the margin front, I will hand it over to Brian.

Brian McGee (CFO and COO)

Yeah, Martin, it is absolutely marginally accretive. More on dollars than necessarily percentage, but the percentage is built into our model of 35% for the year.

Martin Yang (Analyst)

Got it. Thank you. The second question is on new products this year. We have MAX 2 coming up later. You referenced GP3 development updates. Do we expect GP3 to be or GP3-enabled camera to be out this year?

Nicholas Woodman (CEO)

Yeah. Martin, I wish that we could be more transparent with our roadmap, but just due to competition, we're going to have to be a bit more opaque than we have in the past as it relates to upcoming product releases. We're not going to be able to provide any information on that. I apologize.

Martin Yang (Analyst)

Got it. No problem. Last question for me is overall subscription trend. Is there any way when you look at the overall long-term growth or subscription, do you still view hardware sales as a primary driver of subscription revenue? Is there any other levers you can pull to boost subscription revenue growth or that return of growth?

Brian McGee (CFO and COO)

Yeah. I'm Brian. You want to start?

Nicholas Woodman (CEO)

Yeah, Brian. Yeah, I'll just start with one thing. It is tied to historically, it's been tied to hardware, but we are identifying opportunities to create new software experiences that we think will lead to not only added engagement within our existing subscriber community, but also help improve conversion rates amongst buyers. We have identified a number of opportunities that we'll address over time to expand the functionality and relevance of our hardware products to serve more use cases, more customer groups, and more ways through software that we think can have an accretive impact on subscription over time, in addition to selling more units, which is the primary driver of subscription. We think we can improve on that and expand beyond just hardware sales through software as a service as a driver of subscription as well.

Brian McGee (CFO and COO)

I do not think we have much more to add on that. I mean, the other thing that I will add, Martin, is we have continued to improve aggregate retention rates. Year one is 60%, year two, 70%, then 80%, and now nearly 90% in year four. The longer subscribers stay in the program, the more likely they are to stay engaged and come back in. That is what is helping to drive our ARPU up year after year. That is exciting. As Nick mentioned, we return to subscription growth, we believe, in 2026. That has the additional benefit of keeping more people in longer, adding more service capability that enhances the value proposition for this, which will then fuel aggregate retention. Both are important, right? That ultimately drives ARPU and revenue growth and margin.

Martin Yang (Analyst)

Got it. Thank you, Brian. That's it for me.

Operator (participant)

We have no further questions at this time, so I'll pass the call back to the management team for any final remarks.

Nicholas Woodman (CEO)

Thank you, Operator. Thank you, everyone, for joining today's call. We believe we're positioned to return to unit and revenue growth along with improved profitability in 2026 as we plan to introduce a broader, more diversified, and innovative roadmap that we believe will expand our TAM and further establish GoPro as a market-leading innovator. Thanks, everyone. This is Team GoPro signing off.

Operator (participant)

That concludes today's call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.