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GI

GAP INC (GPS)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 FY2024 delivered broad-based improvement: net sales $3.829B (+2% YoY), gross margin 42.7% (+140 bps YoY), operating margin 9.3% (+270 bps YoY), and diluted EPS $0.72 .
  • Strength across brands with market share gains; comps: Gap +3%, Athleta +5%, Banana Republic -1%, Old Navy flat; online sales grew 7% and reached 40% of sales .
  • Management raised FY2024 outlook: net sales growth to +1.5–2.0% (52-week basis), gross margin expansion ~220 bps, and operating income growth to mid–high 60% vs FY2023 adjusted .
  • Dividend maintained at $0.15 per share for Q4 FY2024; robust liquidity with $2.2B cash, cash equivalents and ST investments (+64% YoY) supporting continued reinvigoration and capital returns .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “Highest Q3 operating margin in 7 years,” driven by gross margin expansion and SG&A discipline; CEO emphasized “perform while we transform” with four consecutive quarters of sales growth and seven consecutive quarters of market share gains .
  • Merchandise margin +90 bps YoY on improved inventory management; online sales +7% and 40% of total; inventory down 2% YoY, indicating healthier sell-through and lower markdown intensity .
  • Brand reinvigoration showing traction: Gap +3% comps (fourth consecutive positive); Athleta returned to growth (+5% comps); Old Navy continued share gains despite weather headwinds .

What Went Wrong

  • Weather-related disruptions (two hurricanes, warm temperatures) produced store closures (~180 at peak, ~half Old Navy) and delayed seasonal purchasing, particularly in kids/baby, trimming sales by ~1 percentage point in Q3 .
  • Banana Republic comps -1% with ongoing work in women’s assortment and fit, though men’s strength noted; management flagged continued assortment/fit optimization .
  • SG&A leverage benefited from lower advertising in Q3; management cautioned about “compressed holiday window” and readiness to compete on promotions in Q4, implying potential margin pressure near term .

Financial Results

Consolidated Performance vs Prior Quarter and Prior Year

MetricQ2 FY2024Q3 FY2024
Revenue ($USD Billions)$3.720 $3.829
Diluted EPS ($)$0.54 $0.72
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$293 $355
Operating Margin (%)7.9% (computed from $293 / $3,720) 9.3%
Gross Margin (%)N/A42.7%
Net Income ($USD Millions)$206 $274

Notes: Q2 FY2024 margin computed from cited operating income and net sales; Q3 FY2024 margins as reported.

YoY Q3 Comparison

MetricQ3 FY2023Q3 FY2024
Revenue ($USD Billions)$3.767 $3.829
Gross Margin (%)N/A42.7% (+140 bps YoY)
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$250 $355
Operating Margin (%)6.6% (reported) 9.3% (+270 bps YoY)
Diluted EPS ($)$0.58 $0.72

Brand Net Sales and Mix (Q3)

SegmentQ3 FY2023 ($USD MM)Q3 FY2024 ($USD MM)
Old Navy Global$2,126 $2,150
Gap Global$887 $899
Banana Republic Global$460 $469
Athleta Global$279 $290
Other$15 $21
Total$3,767 $3,829

Comps by Brand (Q3 FY2024)

BrandComparable Sales YoY
Old NavyFlat
Gap+3%
Banana Republic-1%
Athleta+5%
Gap Inc. Total+1%

KPIs and Operating Metrics (Q3 FY2024)

KPIValue
Online Sales (% of Net Sales)40%
Store Sales YoY-2%
Company-Operated Stores2,544
Total Store Locations3,603
Cash, Cash Equivalents & ST Investments$2.2B
Ending Inventory$2.331B (-2% YoY)
YTD Cash From Operations$870M
YTD Free Cash Flow$540M
Capital Expenditures (YTD)$330M
Dividend (Q3 paid)$0.15/sh ($57M)
Dividend (Q4 declared)$0.15/sh (payable Jan 29, 2025)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Sales Growth (52-week basis)FY2024Up slightlyUp 1.5%–2.0%Raised
Gross Margin Expansion vs FY2023FY2024~200 bps~220 bpsRaised
Operating ExpenseFY2024~$5.1B~$5.1BMaintained
Operating Income Growth vs FY2023 adjustedFY2024Mid–High 50%Mid–High 60%Raised
Effective Tax RateFY2024~28%~26.5%Lowered
Capital ExpendituresFY2024~$500M~$500MMaintained
DividendQ4 FY2024N/A$0.15/shMaintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2)Previous Mentions (Q-1)Current Period (Q3 FY2024)Trend
Brand reinvigoration executionNot available in corpusNot available in corpusFour consecutive quarters of sales growth; seven consecutive quarters of share gains; Gap/Athleta momentum Improving
Supply chain resilienceNot available in corpusNot available in corpusNavigated port strike and disasters; diversified sourcing; China <10% of sourcing Improving resilience
Weather/macro impactsNot available in corpusNot available in corpusHurricanes and warm weather reduced sales ~1 ppt; kids/baby more weather-sensitive External headwind
Marketing/media efficiencyNot available in corpusNot available in corpusOmnicom partnership to enhance media ROI; lower advertising aided SG&A leverage Efficiency focus
Store experience/real estateNot available in corpusNot available in corpusGap Flatiron refresh; Athleta remodels; Banana Republic new aesthetic stores Upgrading fleet

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “We grew net sales for the 4th consecutive quarter, expanded gross margin, delivered our highest Q3 operating margin in 7 years and gained market share for the 7th consecutive quarter” underscoring traction in the reinvigoration playbook .
  • CFO: “Operating margin of 9.3%…and 24% growth in EPS to $0.72…$2.2B of cash and $540M free cash flow YTD…raising FY2024 outlook for sales, gross margin and operating income growth” .
  • Segment positioning: Old Navy strengthening in men/women and active; Gap’s “Get Loose” and collaborations driving customer acquisition; Banana Republic focused on fit and women’s assortment; Athleta inflected to growth with improved product/marketing .

Q&A Highlights

  • Weather impact and promotions: ~180 store closures at peak storms; as weather cooled, sales rebounded; promotions remain strategic and competitive; inventory discipline supports margins .
  • SG&A outlook: ~$5.1B for FY2024 with ongoing efficiency work; evaluating balanced capital allocation including buybacks (authorization ~$476M remaining) .
  • Old Navy priorities: Accelerating active category where ON is now the #3 women’s active brand; continued style/value leadership; confidence into holiday/Q4 .
  • Kids/baby dynamics: Category underperformed industry (-3% market) due to “wear-now” behavior; Gap Inc. ~8% share; rebound expected with cooler weather .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus via S&P Global for Q3 FY2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable due to data access limits during retrieval. Consequently, explicit beat/miss vs consensus cannot be determined at this time. We will update estimates comparison when S&P Global access is restored.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Multi-quarter momentum: broad-based YoY improvement with margin expansion and EPS growth; reinvigoration efforts showing tangible results across brands .
  • Mix and channel strength: online penetration at 40% (+7% growth) supports margin structure; inventory down 2% YoY reduces markdown risk .
  • FY2024 outlook raised: net sales, gross margin, and operating income growth—all upgraded—signal confidence into holiday despite compressed shopping window .
  • Liquidity and returns: $2.2B cash and ongoing dividends provide flexibility for selective investment and potential buybacks under existing authorization .
  • Watch near-term variables: holiday promotional intensity, weather sensitivity in kids/baby, and operational execution on store refreshes; management prepared to compete while preserving margins .
  • Medium-term thesis: continued brand revitalization (Gap, ON, Athleta) and operating discipline should sustain margin improvement and earnings power, with optionality from capital allocation .