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Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Revenue of $344.3M grew 14.8% YoY and 4.6% QoQ; beat S&P Global consensus by ~$13.0M as organic growth and acquisitions drove volume and patient acuity uplift .*
  • Diluted EPS of $0.14; Adjusted EPS of $0.23; EPS modestly beat S&P Global consensus (0.215) as SG&A rose on share-based comp/public-company costs while margin mix held steady .*
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $25.0M (+15% YoY) with margin 7.2% flat YoY; CFO noted underlying mature-pharmacy margin closer to ~8% excluding 11 newly integrated sites .
  • Full-year 2025 guidance raised: revenue to $1.39–$1.41B (from $1.33–$1.35B) and adjusted EBITDA to $100–$102M (from $97–$101M) on better-than-expected organic growth and recent acquisitions; tax rate guided ~29% and Q4 vaccine seasonality a tailwind .
  • Stock catalyst: guidance raise and organic outperformance; monitoring PBM negotiations/IRA/MFN policy path where management is “confident” of constructive outcomes and is leading industry efforts with payers and on Capitol Hill .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Double-digit top-line and adjusted EBITDA growth; resident count surpassed 195,000 (+12% YoY), with adjusted EBITDA margin stable at 7.2% despite integrating acquisitions/greenfields and ~$1.1M public-company cost .
  • Strong balance sheet liquidity: cash $18.8M, no debt under credit facility; internally funded M&A with available revolver capacity .
  • Strategic expansion: acquisitions in Wichita (Senior Care), Seattle (Mercury), and post-quarter Oregon (Managed Healthcare Pharmacy) plus a greenfield in Naples, FL; CEO: “We are proud to report another strong quarter…meaningful revenue contributions from thoughtful acquisitions” .

What Went Wrong

  • Net income down YoY to $8.8M (from $15.8M) primarily due to new corporate tax expense post-IPO and higher share-based compensation; SG&A rose 25.5% YoY on headcount and SBC .
  • Gross margin ticked down YoY (to ~19.8%) as COGS rose faster than revenue; newer cohort of 11 pharmacies contributes revenue with “no EBITDA” in 2025, temporarily weighing consolidated margin .
  • Policy/contracting overhang: IRA/MFN impacts into 2026 remain uncertain; PBM negotiations ongoing (management engaged and constructive, but timing to formalize outcomes likely in Q4 guidance updates) .

Financial Results

P&L and Margins vs Prior Periods

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$300.0 $329.3 $344.3
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$61.3 $64.3 $68.1
Gross Margin %20.4% 19.5% 19.8%
SG&A ($USD Millions)$44.3 $51.3 $55.6
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$17.0 $13.0 $12.6
Net Income ($USD Millions)$15.8 $9.3 $8.8
Net Income Margin %5.3% 2.8% 2.6%
Diluted EPS ($USD)N/A $0.15 $0.14
EBITDA ($USD Millions, GAAP)$21.8 $18.4 $18.0
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$21.7 $23.4 $25.0
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %7.2% 7.1% 7.2%

Q2 2025 Actual vs S&P Global Consensus

MetricConsensusActual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$331.3*$344.3
Primary EPS ($USD)$0.215*$0.14
EBITDA ($USD Millions, GAAP)$23.5*$18.0
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Notes:

  • Company also reports Adjusted EPS of $0.23 and Adjusted EBITDA of $25.0M; consensus EBITDA may not be comparable to company’s non-GAAP metric .

KPIs and Operating Metrics

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Resident Count (period-end)186,000 189,000 >195,000
Prescriptions Dispensed (quarter)6.2M (Q2 2024 ref) 6.7M (derived from trend; not disclosed)7.0M
Pharmacies (network)51 51 52
LTCFs Served~7,000 ~7,000 ~7,400
Cash and Equivalents ($USD Millions)$4.7 $14.0 $18.8

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY 2025$1.33B–$1.35B $1.39B–$1.41B Raised
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025$97M–$101M $100M–$102M Raised
EBITDA Margin (consolidated)2H 2025~in line with Q2 (implied) ~in line with Q2 Maintained
Gross Margin2H 2025In line (implied) In line with 1H Maintained
Stock-Based CompensationQ3/Q4 2025N/AQ3 similar to Q2; Q4 ~$1M Clarified
Tax RateFY 2025N/A~29% New detail
Seasonality (Vaccines)Q4 2025Profitable in 2024 Similar profitable impact expected Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
AI/Technology & Clinical ProgramsEmphasis on operational efficiency and vaccine clinic ramp Guardian Shield analytics; falls management program phase 2 live in FL; 50k+ YTD clinical interventions; $24M insurance optimizer savings Strengthening execution
Acquisitions & GreenfieldsHeartland (Apr-2024), Freedom (Nov-2024); entering 2025 with active pipeline Wichita (Senior Care), Seattle (Mercury), greenfield Naples; Oregon (Managed Healthcare Pharmacy) announced post-Q2 Accelerating footprint
Capital MarketsIPO completed; no debt at YE; $40M revolver Non-dilutive secondary increased float/liquidity; employees retain ~30% ownership Liquidity/ownership broadened
Tariffs/Macro/Policy (IRA/MFN/OBBBA)Seasonal vaccine tailwinds; general macro steady Active PBM negotiations; IRA/MFN visibility evolving; minimal Medicaid exposure (<10% scripts); OBBBA not expected to affect business materially Manageable policy risk, proactive stance
Regional TrendsALF-led growth; 38 states served Expansion in Pacific NW and FL; national accounts in new markets Broadening geography
R&D/ExecutionN/AClinical innovation and quality/cost outcomes highlighted Building capabilities

Management Commentary

  • Strategy and performance: “We are proud to report another strong quarter…solid double-digit growth in revenue, resident count, and adjusted EBITDA…meaningful revenue contributions from thoughtful acquisitions” – Fred Burke, CEO .
  • Margin cadence: “Adjusted EBITDA margins at 7.2%, consistent with the prior year even as we folded in three acquisitions…approximately $1,000,000 in costs associated with being a public company” – Fred Burke .
  • Underlying profitability: “Excluding these pharmacies, our adjusted EBITDA margin will be closer to the 8% mark” – David Morris, CFO .
  • Clinical differentiation: “Guardian Shield…falls management program…early feedback has been highly encouraging…over 50,000 year-to-date clinical interventions…saved residents over $24,000,000 year to date” – Fred Burke .
  • Policy stance: “We are confident policymakers will work to ensure patient care isn’t compromised…we’ve successfully managed prior pricing challenges, including inhalers this year and insulin in 2024” – Fred Burke .

Q&A Highlights

  • Vaccine program: Q4 seasonality at “steady state” with general business growth; clinics profitable last year and expected again this year .
  • PBM/IRA timeline: Negotiations ongoing with constructive progress; clarity for 2026 likely signaled alongside Q4 guidance updates later this year .
  • Public company benefits: Improved visibility, broader institutional participation, talent/engagement; employees still own ~30% post-secondary .
  • Organic growth drivers: High single-digit resident growth; increased patient acuity (more prescriptions per resident); plan optimization toward Part D where possible .
  • Capacity constraints: Human capital is the primary governor of simultaneous M&A/greenfield throughput; pipeline strongest in five years .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 revenue beat consensus ($344.3M actual vs $331.3M consensus), driven by organic growth and acquisitions; EPS was modestly above consensus on an adjusted basis but diluted GAAP EPS was lower given higher SBC and tax expense post-IPO .*
  • Consensus coverage remains light (2–3 estimates for Q2), implying potential for revisions upward on FY revenue/EBITDA given raised guidance and stronger mature-pharmacy margins .*
MetricQ2 2025 ConsensusQ2 2025 ActualDelta
Revenue ($USD Millions)$331.3*$344.3 +$13.0
Primary EPS ($USD)$0.215*$0.14 -$0.075
Adjusted EPS ($USD)N/A$0.23 N/A
EBITDA ($USD Millions, GAAP)$23.5*$18.0 -$5.5
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Caveat: Company emphasizes non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EPS; consensus EBITDA definitions may differ from company-reported non-GAAP metrics .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Guidance raise is the quarter’s key catalyst; expect estimate revisions higher on FY revenue/adj. EBITDA and improving sentiment around organic momentum .
  • Margin headwind from 11 newly integrated pharmacies is temporary; underlying mature locations near ~8% adjusted EBITDA margin support medium-term margin expansion as the cohort matures .
  • Clinical differentiation (Guardian Shield, falls management) underpins payer/facility value and should aid contract resilience amid IRA/MFN transitions .
  • Balance sheet flexibility (no debt; $40M revolver) supports continued tuck-ins/greenfields; watch human-capital scaling to accelerate throughput .
  • Near-term trading: Positive reaction bias on guidance raise and revenue beat; monitor Q3 execution, SBC normalization in Q4 (~$1M) and Q4 vaccine seasonality tailwinds .
  • Policy watch: Q4 likely to bring more concrete PBM/IRA/MFN updates; company is engaged and confident but headline risk persists .
  • Long-term thesis: ALF/BHF focus, local model, disciplined M&A, and data-enabled clinical programs position GRDN for durable double-digit growth with margin accretion as the new cohort ramps .