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Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Strong Q3 performance with double-digit growth: revenue $377.4M (+20% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $27.3M (+18% YoY), adjusted EPS $0.25; guidance raised for FY25 revenue to $1.43–$1.45B and adjusted EBITDA to $104–$106M .
  • Results beat Wall Street consensus on revenue and EPS, while GAAP EBITDA was below consensus due to acquisition/greenfield dilution and PubCo costs; revenue $377.4M vs $354.1M*, EPS $0.25 vs $0.235*, EBITDA $22.3M vs $25.5M* (consensus uses GAAP EBITDA, not adjusted) .
  • Management flagged vaccine clinic seasonality (some pull-forward into Q3; Q4 still “steady”) and continued cohort maturation; tax rate guided lower in Q4 (high-20s) and mid-20s in 2026 .
  • Strategic expansion continues (Oregon acquisition, Pacific Northwest footprint, robust pipeline) with strong cash generation ($36.5M cash, no debt) and an effective S-3 shelf plus extended lock-ups (93% locked until June 30, 2026), reducing near-term overhang .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Growth and guidance: Revenue +20% YoY to $377.4M; adjusted EBITDA +18% YoY to $27.3M; adjusted EPS $0.25; FY25 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance raised .
  • Strategic footprint expansion: Acquisition of Managed Healthcare Pharmacy (Oregon), deepening Pacific Northwest presence; integration tracking as expected and national customer onboarding underway .
  • CEO tone and positioning: “This quarter again demonstrates the power of our model—combining local clinical and business expertise with the scale and resources of our national platform” (Fred Burke) .

What Went Wrong

  • Margin dilution and EBITDA consensus miss: GAAP EBITDA below consensus as greenfields/acquisitions remain dilutive; PubCo costs (~$1.3M in Q3) weigh on margins; adjusted EBITDA margin held at 7.2% but below “ex-new-cohort” potential (~8%) .
  • Elevated tax expense: Q3 provision of $7.0M; reported tax rate 42% driven by non-recurring items tied to the prior corporate reorg/IPO; Q4 to normalize to high-20s .
  • Continued policy headwinds: Ongoing Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)/PBM negotiations; management confident but specifics constrained by NDAs; 2026 expected to be flattish on reported revenue as mitigation offsets EBITDA headwinds .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$314.4 $344.3 $377.4
Diluted EPS ($)($2.00) $0.14 $0.15
Adjusted EPS ($)N/M $0.23 $0.25
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$60.9 $68.1 $74.7
Gross Margin (%)—19.8% 19.8%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$23.0 $25.0 $27.3
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)7.3% 7.2% 7.2%

Consensus vs Actual (Q3 2025):

  • Revenue: $354.1M* vs $377.4M — beat
  • EPS: $0.235* vs $0.25 — beat
  • EBITDA (GAAP): $25.5M* vs $22.3M — miss

Values marked with an asterisk (*) were retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment/KPI snapshot:

KPIQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Residents Served (period-end)—>195,000 ~204,000 (+13% YoY)
Pharmacies in Network—52 53
LTCFs Served—~7,400 ~8,200
Adjusted SG&A as % of Revenue—14.1% 13.7%
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($M)—$18.8 $36.5
National Market Share——~13%

Non-GAAP adjustments (Q3 2025 highlights):

  • Share-based compensation $4.4M; legal/regulatory $0.435M; financing-related $0.110M; payor-reimbursement matters $0.038M; acquisition-related intangible amortization $0.978M; tax impact of adjustments ($1.759M); certain tax matters (IPO/Reorg) $1.725M .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($)FY 2025$1.39B–$1.41B $1.43B–$1.45B Raised
Adjusted EBITDA ($)FY 2025$100M–$102M $104M–$106M Raised
SG&A % of SalesQ4 2025Seasonal lift expected (qualitative) Slightly lower % on seasonal revenue Maintained/Improved
Stock-based Compensation ($)Q4 2025~$1.0M ~$1.1M Slightly Raised
Tax Rate (%)Q4 2025~29% High-20s Lowered
Tax Rate (%)FY 2026—Mid-20s New

Note: Guidance excludes future acquisitions .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1, Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
IRA/PBM negotiationsConstructive PBM/policy dialogue; confident in mitigation; 2026 impact largest “Taking shape,” confident in offsetting EBITDA headwind; details under NDA Confidence building; still opaque
Vaccine clinics seasonalityQ4 profitability expected; steady-state framework Steady; stronger September pulled some activity into Q3; Q4 still seasonal Earlier start; normal seasonality
Acquisitions/greenfieldsKS/WI/FL expansions; cohort ramp over 3–4 years Oregon acquisition; Pacific NW foothold; integration tracking; robust pipeline Active, targeted
Margins/cohortsNewer sites dilutive; excluding cohort ~8% adj EBITDA margin Cohorts maturing; Q3 adj margin 7.2%; without newest acquisitions nearer 8% Gradual expansion
Clinical/technology (Guardian Shield)Falls program pilots; antibiotic stewardship; psychotropic monitoring; 50k interventions YTD Continued emphasis on platform scale and analytics supporting operators Execution focus
Capital marketsNon-dilutive secondary expanded float S-3 shelf effective; 93% lock-ups to 6/30/2026 Flexibility; reduced overhang

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “This quarter again demonstrates the power of our model—combining local clinical and business expertise with the scale and resources of our national platform.”
  • CFO: “Adjusted EBITDA margins held steady with the second quarter at 7.2%… Without [recent acquisitions], margins would be closer to 8%.”
  • CEO on IRA: “We’re growing ever more confident in our ability to offset the anticipated EBITDA headwind, even as reported revenue growth is expected to remain relatively flat in 2026.”
  • CFO on capital: “We ended the quarter with $36 million in cash… no debt outstanding under our credit facility… flexibility to fund M&A with internally generated cash flow.”
  • CEO on market position: “Our national market share is 13%… 37 of our pharmacies have 20%+ market share, with 12 over 40%.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Vaccine clinics: Uptake steady despite CDC guidance concerns; stronger September pulled forward some activity; Q4 expected to see typical seasonality .
  • Resident count trajectory: Q4 resident count expected “steady as we go” with usual seasonal reluctance to move in Nov/Dec .
  • IRA/PBM: Negotiations sensitive (NDAs); management reiterated confidence in offsetting headwinds; exploring value-based models .
  • Margin dynamics: Cohort discussion—4–5 year sites above consolidated margin; 2–3 year sites tracking; newer acquisitions/greenfields depress margins ~80 bps; long-term aim to lift margins toward/above ~8% .
  • Part D shifts and acuity: Plan switching dynamics still evolving; acuity steadily rising, driving brand utilization; deductible/out-of-pocket changes not yet visible vs last year .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 consensus vs actual: revenue $354.1M* vs $377.4M (beat), EPS $0.235* vs $0.25 (beat), EBITDA (GAAP) $25.5M* vs $22.3M (miss). Note consensus EBITDA reflects GAAP EBITDA, while company emphasizes Adjusted EBITDA ($27.3M) .
  • Expect estimate revisions: Raise revenue and EPS for Q4/FY25 on stronger organic growth, vaccine seasonality, and raised guidance; EBITDA revisions likely mixed as analysts reconcile GAAP vs adjusted metrics while incorporating acquisition/greenfield dilution .

Values marked with an asterisk (*) were retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Guardian delivered broad-based growth and raised FY25 guidance; revenue and EPS beats vs consensus should support positive estimate revisions and sentiment .
  • Margin quality intact despite dilution from recent acquisitions/greenfields and PubCo costs; cohort maturation and integration playbook point to gradual margin expansion toward/above ~8% over 24–36 months .
  • Seasonal vaccine dynamics pulled some Q4 into Q3 but Q4 still expected to benefit; watch Q4 SG&A leverage and tax normalization (high-20s) as potential upside to net income .
  • Strategic footprint expansion (Oregon, Washington) enhances national customer relationships and regional density; robust pipeline plus strong cash, no debt enable self-funded M&A .
  • Policy risk managed: IRA/PBM negotiations progressing; management confident in offsetting EBITDA headwinds; narrative is a controlled execution through policy changes—a key de-risking catalyst as visibility improves .
  • Capital markets setup: Effective S-3 shelf provides flexibility; extended lock-ups (93% until 6/30/2026) reduce near-term overhang and support float stability .
  • Near-term trading: Stock likely responsive to guidance raise and beat; monitor Q4 vaccine cadence, tax rate step-down, and any PBM/IRA updates; medium-term thesis hinges on organic growth, cohort maturation, disciplined M&A, and policy mitigation .