Executive Summary

Q4 2024 delivered revenue of $338.6M (+20.5% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $25.9M (+30% YoY), benefitting from organic growth, acquisitions (Heartland, Freedom), and vaccine-clinic seasonality; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.19, with net income of $11.8M .
Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue beat by ~1.7% ($338.6M vs $332.8M*), adjusted EBITDA beat by ~7% ($25.9M vs $24.6M*), and Primary EPS modestly beat ($0.2381 vs $0.22*); note GAAP diluted EPS of $0.19 reflects IPO/share-based comp dynamics .
FY 2024 finished above prior guidance: revenue $1.228B vs $1.205–$1.215B guided and adjusted EBITDA $90.8M vs $86.5–$87.0M guided, demonstrating operational leverage despite one-time public company and share-based comp costs .
FY 2025 guidance was reiterated: revenue $1.330B–$1.350B; adjusted EBITDA $97M–$101M (includes ~$4M full-year public company costs); pipeline remains robust, with organic growth in high single digits plus selective M&A as potential upside catalysts .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Strong top-line and EBITDA growth: Q4 revenue +20.5% YoY to $338.6M and adjusted EBITDA +30% YoY to $25.9M, with margin at 7.6% .
Vaccine clinics turned from a profitability headwind in 2023 to a slight tailwind in Q4 2024; ~$12M revenue from clinics contributed meaningfully to YoY EBITDA growth; “turned a profit headwind into a slight profit tailwind” (CEO) .
Balance sheet reset post-IPO: term note and line of credit repaid, ending Q4 with no debt outstanding and $40M revolver availability (up to $75M capacity), supporting growth flexibility .

What Went Wrong

GAAP net income down YoY due to tax provision and non-recurring items: Q4 net income of $11.8M decreased vs prior year; full-year net loss of ($71.0)M driven by $131.5M share-based comp tied to Corporate Reorganization/IPO .
Elevated SG&A from public company transition and legal/regulatory items; GAAP SG&A was $50.3M in Q4 (14.9% of revenue) vs adjusted SG&A $46.3M (13.7%) after excluding non-core items .
Gross margin percent volatility persists intra-quarter; while annual margins remain stable (~20%), quarterly mix, integration of acquired locations, and episodic brand therapy (e.g., Paxlovid in Q3) can pressure gross margin percentage .

Financial Results

Quarterly performance vs prior year and prior quarter

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$281.067	$314.393	$338.569
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$14.559	($105.817)	$11.841
Diluted EPS ($USD)	N/A (pre-IPO)	($2.00)	$0.19
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$19.876	$23.012	$25.890
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	7.1%	7.3%	7.6%
Gross Profit Margin (%)	19.4% (calc: 54.578/281.067)	19.4%	19.8% (calc: 67.104/338.569)

Notes: Q4 2024 revenue rounded in narrative as $338.6M . Q3 diluted EPS reflects post-IPO stub period accounting .

KPIs and operational metrics

KPI	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Resident Count (000s)	~163 (YoY base implied)	180	186
Vaccine Clinic Revenue ($USD Millions)	~$10	N/A	~$12
Pharmacies (Count)	N/A	50	51

Actual vs S&P Global consensus (Q4 2024)

Metric	Actual	Consensus	Surprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$338.569	$332.772*	+$5.797 (+1.7%)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$25.890	$24.559*	+$1.331 (+5.4%)
Primary EPS ($USD)	$0.2381*	$0.22*	+$0.0181 (+8.2%)
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($USD)	$0.19	—	—

Estimates counts: Revenue # of estimates: 3*; Primary EPS # of estimates: 3* (Q4 2024).
Note: S&P “Primary EPS” can differ from GAAP diluted EPS; diluted EPS of $0.19 is from the 8-K .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue ($USD Billions)	FY 2025	$1.330–$1.350	$1.330–$1.350	Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	$97–$101	$97–$101	Maintained
Public Company Costs (Included in Adj. EBITDA)	FY 2025	Not quantified	~$4.0 included	Added clarity
Revenue ($USD Billions)	FY 2024	$1.205–$1.215	Actual $1.228	Beat guidance
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	FY 2024	$86.5–$87.0	Actual $90.8	Beat guidance

Management reiterated that FY25 guidance excludes future M&A/contiguous expansions; pipeline remains robust .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2)	Previous Mentions (Q-1: Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Vaccine clinics profitability	Not publicly available	Headwind discussion; gross margin volatility; brand COVID therapies (Paxlovid) pressured GM%	Process optimized via task force; slight tailwind; ~$12M Q4 clinic revenue	Improving profitability and execution
IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) impact	Not publicly available	Engaged with PBMs/legislative path; no 2025 obstacles	Active PBM talks; multipronged mitigation; confidence to manage 2026+ headwinds	Constructive engagement; risk acknowledged
M&A pipeline/selectivity	Not publicly available	Heartland integration progressing; added NJ pharmacy; low leverage stance	Robust pipeline; selective criteria; guidance excludes future deals	Consistent; capacity to accelerate
Gross margin stability	Not publicly available	Quarterly volatility; annual ~20% stable	Annual GM steady (~20%); leverage expected even with public costs	Stable annually
Drug mix/brand utilization	Not publicly available	Higher branded usage; COVID spike	No substantial changes assumed for 2025; mix steady	Normalizing
Weather/supply chain	Not publicly available	Hurricanes Helene/Milton managed; minimal impact	No material flu-season severity impact to volumes	Operational resilience

Note: Q-2 (Q2 2024) public earnings materials not available in SEC list; trend table reflects Q3 2024 (Q-1) and Q4 2024 .

Management Commentary

“We turned a profit headwind into a slight profit tailwind, a significant improvement for the recently completed 2024 vaccine season.” — Fred Burke, CEO .
“Resident Count grew 14% to 186,000… adjusted EBITDA grew 30.3% YoY to $25.9 million… margin of 7.6%.” — David Morris, CFO .
“We have a 12% market share, which to us means 88% to go.” — Fred Burke, CEO .
“These guidance ranges… midpoint suggests growth of 9%… excludes future acquisitions or contiguous start-ups… pipeline remains strong.” — David Morris, CFO .
“PBMs are acknowledging the issue and are engaged with us in solving [IRA].” — Fred Burke, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

2024→2025 bridge: High single-digit organic plus M&A yields low double-digit growth; push to achieve additional leverage despite full-year public company costs .
IRA and PBM negotiations: Issue acknowledged; engaged in solutions; details confidential; management confident in mitigation and navigating 2026+ .
Flu season severity: Limited impact due to near-universal vaccination across resident base; marginal TAMiflu/antibiotic scripts .
Vaccine clinic impact 2025: Majority of benefit in Q4; revenue grows with business, but no comparable step-change tailwind expected in 2025 .
Drug mix and pricing: No substantial mix or reimbursement changes embedded in 2025 guidance; steady outlook .
Clinical services initiatives: Progress in fall-risk/disease-state management; customer enthusiasm for data-analytics-enabled offerings .

Estimates Context

Q4 2024 revenue beat consensus by ~1.7% ($338.569M actual vs $332.772M* consensus). Primary EPS beat by ~$0.018 ($0.2381* vs $0.22*). Adjusted EBITDA beat by ~5–7% ($25.890M actual vs $24.559M* consensus). Estimates based on 3 contributors for revenue and EPS .
Note: S&P “Primary EPS” differs from GAAP diluted EPS ($0.19 reported) due to methodology and the post-IPO/share-based comp effects; use care when comparing across definitions .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Q4 outperformed on revenue and adjusted EBITDA vs consensus, with margin expansion to 7.6%; operational improvements in vaccine clinics aided the beat .
FY2024 exceeded guidance on both revenue ($1.228B) and adjusted EBITDA ($90.8M), validating execution amid IPO-related transition costs and share-based comp .
FY2025 guide (rev $1.33–$1.35B; adj. EBITDA $97–$101M) was reiterated and excludes future M&A or contiguous expansions, leaving optionality for upside from the robust pipeline .
IRA-related margin risk is a 2026+ issue; management is proactively engaged with PBMs and policymakers, signaling constructive mitigation potential .
Balance sheet flexibility (zero debt at year-end; $40M revolver available, expandable to $75M) supports continued organic expansion and targeted M&A .
Near-term trading lens: positive narrative from beats and improved clinic profitability; monitor EPS comparability (GAAP vs Primary EPS) and upcoming M&A signals as catalysts .
Medium-term thesis: stable annual gross margins (~20%), decentralized operator model, and high-touch services in assisted living/memory care underpin durable growth and operating leverage .

S&P Global disclaimer: Values marked with an asterisk (*) were retrieved from S&P Global.

Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary