GI
Grindr Inc. (GRND)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 delivered solid top-line and cash flow: revenue grew 27% YoY to $104.220M, net income was $16.638M (16.0% margin), and Adjusted EBITDA was $45.207M (43.4% margin) .
- Versus consensus: revenue was roughly in line ($104.220M vs $104.775M*), but EPS missed ($0.0828 actual vs $0.1033*); Adjusted EBITDA exceeded internal margin guardrails yet SPGI’s EBITDA actual is not directly comparable to company Adjusted EBITDA* .
- Guidance maintained: management reaffirmed FY25 outlook of ≥26% revenue growth and ≥43% Adjusted EBITDA margin, following a raise last quarter from the initial 24%/41% framework .
- Key catalysts: product momentum (mapping in Right Now and Explore heatmaps), strong indirect ads ramp, and gAI/A-List rollout supporting premium monetization into 2026 .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Direct revenue grew 24% YoY to $87M and indirect revenue rose 39% YoY to $17M, supported by subscription enhancements, merchandising/paywall optimization, and new ad partners/formats .
- User KPIs improved: Average MAUs reached 14.9M (+6% YoY), average paying users hit 1.2M (+16% YoY), and ARPPU expanded to $23.65 (+7% YoY) .
- Management emphasized AI-native product progress: “We are delivering on our performance objectives while continuing to execute at a high level on our product innovation and AI roadmaps” — George Arison (CEO) . Also highlighted A-List as the first AI-native product at scale to redefine user connection .
What Went Wrong
- EPS missed consensus (actual $0.0828 vs $0.1033*), despite revenue being broadly in line* .
- Operating expenses (ex-COGS) rose 43% YoY to $53M, driven primarily by stock-based compensation, pressuring EPS despite strong EBITDA margins .
- Direct brand advertising remains slower than hoped due to lingering industry caution post-Anheuser Busch; international ad fill rates still have room to improve .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Financial Results
Summary P&L and EPS
Segment Breakdown
KPIs
Cash Flow and Liquidity
Q2 2025 Actual vs Consensus
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Strategic focus: “We are delivering on our performance objectives while continuing to execute at a high level on our product innovation and AI roadmaps.” — George Arison (CEO) .
- AI-native approach: A-List “uses AI to prioritize high-potential chats, summarize conversations, deliver insights, and guide users back in with intent… broader monetization expected to start in 2026” .
- Profitability and EPS: “We delivered GAAP EPS in Q2 of $0.08 and expect to continue to generate positive EPS going forward” — Vandana Mehta-Krantz (CFO) .
- Ads growth narrative: Third-party ads ramped with new partners and formats; rewarded video is a 2026 growth lever; direct brand ads impacted by industry caution post-Anheuser Busch, with ongoing efforts to pitch Grindr’s desirable audience .
- Guidance posture: Reaffirmed FY25 outlook of ≥26% revenue growth and ≥43% Adjusted EBITDA margin based on H1 performance .
Q&A Highlights
- MAU growth drivers: Strong presence among younger cohorts (18–29) and plans to tailor marketing and localization to accelerate growth in Asia/LatAm; product initiatives (intent-based offerings) to deepen engagement, especially for older cohorts .
- Mapping features: Heatmaps in Explore and proximity in Right Now enable local discovery and future monetization around events, activities, and travel; privacy preserved via historical (not live) data .
- Indirect revenue acceleration: Driven by third-party partnerships and new formats; no plan to increase ads per session; focus on higher-quality ads and improving international fill rates .
- Operating expenses: Higher OpEx reflects product investment and accruals; more evenly distributed expense cadence across quarters; margins at ~43% align with outlook .
- Pricing tests: Experiments will be non-material in 2025; noted price headroom since 2018 and added premium-value features (e.g., A-List for Unlimited) to support future monetization .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025: Revenue nearly in line ($104.220M vs $104.775M*), while EPS missed ($0.0828 vs $0.1033*). SPGI EBITDA actual ($27.414M*) differs from company Adjusted EBITDA ($45.207M), reflecting metric definitions* .
- Implications: Street may fine-tune EPS to reflect higher OpEx cadence and stock-based comp, while keeping revenue trajectory supported by subscriptions and ads; FY25 consensus revenue $435.962M* and EBITDA $191.155M* align with the reaffirmed margin framework*.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Core momentum intact: subscriptions and ad tech execution drove 27% YoY revenue growth and 81% FCF conversion; cash balance ~$121M provides flexibility .
- Guidance credibility: FY25 ≥26% revenue and ≥43% Adjusted EBITDA margin reaffirmed after a Q1 raise, signaling confidence in H2 product rollout and monetization .
- Near-term catalysts: Mapping/Explore heatmaps, continued Right Now monetization, and ad partner ramp (international fill rates, rewarded formats) .
- Medium-term monetization: A-List/gAI should support premium pricing and value capture in 2026; pricing tests underway, non-material for 2025 but set foundation for ARPPU uplift .
- Watch expenses and SBC: Elevated OpEx tied to accelerated product roadmap and stock-based comp—monitor EPS trajectory versus margin preservation .
- Ads mix: Third-party ads driving growth; brand advertising opportunity remains, contingent on continued brand repositioning and partner confidence .
- Structural cleanup: Warrant liability redemption removes GAAP volatility, clarifying EPS path going forward .